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BMO vs TD
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Bank of Montreal (BMO) vs. Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both BMO and TD are major Canadian banks with substantial U.S. footprints, but they diverge sharply in scale, growth strategy, and regulatory positioning.
- TD is the larger franchise by market capitalization and asset base, while BMO has leaned more heavily into capital markets and U.S. expansion as growth drivers.
- Both names have posted strong relative performance over the past year, with returns of roughly 30% or more, reflecting a broad recovery in Canadian bank sentiment.
- TD continues to work through U.S. anti-money laundering remediation, a key overhang, while BMO is reshaping its U.S. branch network.
- Capital positioning remains strong at both banks, with Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratios comfortably above regulatory minimums.
Introduction
Canadian banks are frequently viewed as bellwethers of North American economic health, and BMO (Bank of Montreal) and TD (Toronto-Dominion Bank) are two of the sector's most closely followed names. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing two distinct strategic profiles: a diversified lender with a growing capital-markets engine versus a larger retail-heavy franchise navigating U.S. regulatory remediation. For traders and longer-term investors alike, understanding the relative performance, market positioning, and risk factors of these two institutions can help clarify where each name sits in the current market environment.
BMO Overview and Recent Performance
Bank of Montreal is a diversified financial services provider operating across four segments: Canadian personal and commercial banking, U.S. personal and commercial banking, wealth management, and capital markets. Roughly 60% of its earnings are generated in Canada and about 40% in the United States, giving it meaningful cross-border diversification. In recent quarters, BMO has emphasized a return on equity (ROE) target above 15% by 2028, supported by growth in wealth management and its U.S. business.
Recent market activity has been broadly constructive for BMO. Its most recent quarterly results showed adjusted earnings per share up more than 20% year over year, with record adjusted net income and a return on equity around 14%. Capital markets and wealth management were standout contributors, while a lower provision for credit losses (the amount set aside for potential loan losses) also supported results. The bank has simultaneously been restructuring its U.S. footprint, selling 138 branches in select markets while planning to open more than 130 financial centers in California and additional locations in Arizona. Its CET1 ratio of roughly 13% reflects a solid capital buffer.
TD Overview and Recent Performance
Toronto-Dominion Bank is one of Canada's two largest banks, with over CAD 2.1 trillion in assets. It operates through Canadian personal and commercial banking, U.S. retail banking, wealth management and insurance, and wholesale banking, deriving more than half of its revenue domestically and around 40% from the United States. A defining theme for TD has been its multi-year remediation of U.S. anti-money laundering (AML) controls, which has required elevated spending and placed an asset cap on its U.S. retail bank.
Despite these headwinds, TD has delivered a notable recovery in recent market activity. Its latest quarterly results marked a record for earnings, with net income rising sharply year over year, a return on equity around 16%, and a CET1 ratio of approximately 14.3%. Management has pointed to record revenue in Canadian banking, improving margins, and progress on structural cost reductions and artificial-intelligence initiatives. The bank is also planning to open roughly 100 new U.S. stores by 2028, signaling a renewed focus on growth even as compliance spending moderates.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most immediate contrast between these two institutions is scale and strategic emphasis. TD is the larger bank by market capitalization and assets, with a dominant Canadian retail franchise and a dense U.S. branch network concentrated in the Northeast. BMO, by comparison, is smaller but has positioned capital markets and wealth management as key growth engines, a strategy that has boosted earnings in periods of strong trading activity.
On momentum, both stocks have advanced substantially over the past year, though BMO has shown a slightly higher trailing return and carries a higher beta, indicating greater sensitivity to market swings. TD trades at a somewhat lower forward earnings multiple, reflecting the market's ongoing discount for its U.S. regulatory overhang, whereas BMO carries a higher dividend yield. Risk profiles differ as well: TD faces residual AML remediation and asset-cap constraints, while BMO is more exposed to capital-markets volatility and the execution risk of its U.S. branch restructuring.
Tickeron AI Verdict
On observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor TD for its relative combination of trend consistency, improving earnings quality, and strong capital position, even as it weighs the lingering U.S. compliance overhang. TD's record quarterly profitability, rising return on equity, and moderating remediation costs suggest a more stable, steadily improving trajectory. At the same time, BMO's higher beta and capital-markets leverage could make it the more responsive candidate during periods of strong risk appetite. In probabilistic terms, the AI's edge may lean toward TD for consistency, while recognizing that BMO offers a distinct, higher-momentum profile under favorable market conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BMO is a StrongBuy and TD is a StrongBuy.
BMO's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BMO turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where BMO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where BMO's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 22 of 35 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 16, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on BMO as a result. In 36 of 66 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
Following a +2.67% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BMO advanced for three days, in 206 of 385 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 152 of 327 cases where BMO Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 46%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
BMO moved below its 50-day moving average on September 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BMO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
BMO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 20, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BMO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 68 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.394) is normal, around the industry mean (1.531). P/E Ratio (13.846) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.865). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.518) is also within normal values, averaging (2.139). Dividend Yield (0.029) settles around the average of (0.034) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.411) is also within normal values, averaging (3.867).
TD's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TD turned positive on October 14, 2026. Looking at past instances where TD's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TD as a result. In 43 of 75 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
TD moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for TD crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 6 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 43%.
Following a +2.45% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TD advanced for three days, in 175 of 346 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 186 of 360 cases where TD Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 52%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TD declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
TD broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 20, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TD’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 70 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.796) is normal, around the industry mean (1.531). P/E Ratio (13.353) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.865). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.006) is also within normal values, averaging (2.139). Dividend Yield (0.025) settles around the average of (0.034) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.318) is also within normal values, averaging (3.867).
BMO | TD | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 7 | 35 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 68 Overvalued | 70 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 31 | 22 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 3 | 3 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 46 | 41 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 54 | 14 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BMO's Valuation (68) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as TD (70). This means that BMO’s stock grew similarly to TD’s over the last 12 months.
TD's Profit vs Risk Rating (22) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as BMO (31). This means that TD’s stock grew similarly to BMO’s over the last 12 months.
TD's SMR Rating (3) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as BMO (3). This means that TD’s stock grew similarly to BMO’s over the last 12 months.
TD's Price Growth Rating (41) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as BMO (46). This means that TD’s stock grew similarly to BMO’s over the last 12 months.
TD's P/E Growth Rating (14) in the Major Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BMO (54). This means that TD’s stock grew somewhat faster than BMO’s over the last 12 months.
| BMO | TD | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 49% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 38% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 57% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 61% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 53% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 54% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 54% | 1 day ago 51% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 16 days ago 55% | 24 days ago 49% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 47% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 46% | 1 day ago 52% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BMO’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while TD’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- BMO’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TD’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BMO’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TD’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BMO’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TD’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
BMO (@Major Banks) experienced а +2.64% price change this week, while TD (@Major Banks) price change was +4.47% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Major Banks industry was -1.14%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.01%, and the average quarterly price growth was +10.12%.
Reported Earning Dates
BMO is expected to report earnings on Dec 03, 2026.
TD is expected to report earnings on Dec 03, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Major Banks (-1.14% weekly)Major banks are among the biggest companies in the world, often times with global reach and market capitalizations in the multi-billions. Large banks often have multiple arms spanning different disciplines, from deposits, to investment banking, to wealth management and insurance. The biggest banks often have key competitive advantages over smaller players in the industry in terms of brand recognition, cost of capital, and efficiency. Think J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup.
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BMO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BMO has been closely correlated with RY. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BMO jumps, then RY could also see price increases.
TD and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TD has been closely correlated with RY. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TD jumps, then RY could also see price increases.