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BMO vs TD
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Bank of Montreal (BMO) vs. Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BMO and TD are two of Canada's largest diversified banks, both with substantial U.S. retail footprints and near-identical dividend yields around 2.5% to 2.9%.
- TD has delivered stronger trailing momentum, with a roughly 57% one-year total return versus approximately 37% for BMO.
- TD carries a heavier regulatory overhang from its U.S. anti-money-laundering (AML) remediation and asset cap, while BMO is focused on capital-markets-driven earnings growth.
- BMO holds a stronger adjusted return on equity trajectory in capital markets, while TD shows a higher Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio near 14.3%.
- For deeper coverage of each name, visit the BMO Major News and BMO Today's Price Move pages, as well as the TD Major News and TD Today's Price Move pages for real-time updates and headlines.
- To see how automated systems are positioning across the market, explore the curated list of Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Bank of Montreal and Toronto-Dominion Bank are two pillars of Canada's banking sector, yet their investment profiles diverge in meaningful ways. BMO has leaned into capital markets and its expanded U.S. presence following the Bank of the West acquisition, while TD is working through a multi-year U.S. regulatory remediation while defending its dominant domestic retail franchise. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing Canadian financials with large cross-border exposure, as well as traders seeking relative performance signals between two highly liquid, dividend-paying names. Both companies face a similar macroeconomic backdrop of easing credit trends and shifting tariff policy, making their contrasting positioning and momentum a useful lens for market positioning decisions.
BMO Overview and Recent Performance
Bank of Montreal, founded in 1817, is Canada's oldest bank and operates across Canadian and U.S. personal and commercial banking, wealth management, and capital markets. In recent weeks, BMO has traded near the upper end of its 52-week range, with a year-to-date total return of roughly 34% and a one-year return near 37%. Sentiment has been supported by strong adjusted earnings, with fiscal third-quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) up about 23% year over year and an adjusted return on equity (ROE) near 14%, approaching the bank's 15% medium-term target.
Capital markets has been a standout driver, with adjusted net income up sharply on higher equities trading and corporate banking revenue. The bank also signaled portfolio simplification, including the planned sale of its Transportation and Vendor Finance businesses and a new normal course issuer bid (a share repurchase program). Reported net income was weighed down by a goodwill-related charge tied to those divestitures. Analysts maintain a broad "Hold" consensus, with valuation appearing full after the recent run. Credit quality has shown stabilization, with lower provisions for credit losses (PCLs) and improving impaired loan trends.
TD Overview and Recent Performance
Toronto-Dominion Bank, founded in 1855, is Canada's second-largest bank by assets and derives more than half of its revenue from its dominant domestic personal and commercial franchise, alongside a large U.S. retail presence concentrated along the East Coast. In recent weeks, TD has posted the stronger trailing performance of the pair, with a year-to-date total return near 36% and a one-year return exceeding 57%, reflecting a recovery from its 2024 U.S. anti-money-laundering (AML) settlement.
Fiscal third-quarter results showed adjusted EPS rising to about C$2.74 from C$1.89 a year earlier, with net income up roughly 39%. Adjusted ROE climbed toward 16%, and the bank's CET1 ratio—a key measure of capital strength—stood near 14.3%. Momentum has been broad-based, including record Canadian personal and commercial banking results and a rebound in U.S. retail earnings. However, TD remains subject to a U.S. asset cap and continues spending on AML remediation, with plans to open around 100 new U.S. branches by 2028. Management has also emphasized structural cost reductions and artificial intelligence (AI) initiatives as key earnings levers.
Trending AI Robots
For traders who prefer a systematic approach to relative performance, Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page offers a curated view of automated strategies built to adapt to shifting market conditions. Tickeron maintains hundreds of AI trading bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, spanning varied timeframes, trading styles, and risk profiles. Only a select subset of these bots earns a place in the Trending section—those whose recent statistics, performance patterns, and strategy alignment make them best suited to current market conditions. Each bot differs in its approach, holding periods, and universe of tickers, giving users a range of options to evaluate. Exploring the Trending AI Robots page can help you see how algorithmic models are currently positioning across the market.
Head-to-Head Comparison
Although both banks operate diversified North American franchises, their growth drivers and risk profiles differ. BMO has reallocated capital toward capital markets and its enlarged U.S. footprint, making its earnings more sensitive to trading volumes and market conditions. TD, by contrast, leans more heavily on stable domestic retail banking and wealth management, though its U.S. growth is constrained by a regulatory asset cap while AML remediation continues.
On momentum, TD has led over the trailing year, but its valuation has also expanded, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio comparable to BMO's and a lower beta (about 0.87 versus 1.12), indicating less price volatility relative to the broader market. In terms of capital, TD holds a higher CET1 ratio near 14.3% versus BMO's 13%, giving it greater balance-sheet flexibility for buybacks and dividends. Risk factors differ as well: TD faces execution and regulatory-remediation risk, while BMO carries elevated sensitivity to capital-markets cyclicality. Both remain exposed to Canadian mortgage renewals and trade-policy uncertainty.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor TD at the current juncture, reflecting its stronger trailing relative performance, higher capital buffer, broader earnings momentum across segments, and steadier revenue mix. The consistency of TD's trend and its recovery from prior regulatory pressure suggest a more durable positioning, even as the asset cap remains a constraint. That said, BMO's capital-markets strength and improving ROE make it a compelling alternative, particularly if trading conditions remain favorable. The assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive: relative advantage could shift with changes in credit trends, capital-markets activity, or regulatory developments affecting either bank.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BMO is a Hold and TD is a StrongBuy.
Momentum Indicator for BMO turns negative, indicating new downward trend
BMO saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on November 12, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 66 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 40 of the 66 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 61%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for BMO moved out of overbought territory on October 30, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 40 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 20 of the 40 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 50%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 35 of 62 cases where BMO's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BMO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
BMO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BMO just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where BMO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
BMO moved above its 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for BMO crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 6 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 40%.
Following a +2.18% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BMO advanced for three days, in 206 of 384 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 162 of 328 cases where BMO Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 49%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 30 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 21, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BMO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 66 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.400) is normal, around the industry mean (1.500). P/E Ratio (13.902) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.703). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.518) is also within normal values, averaging (2.139). Dividend Yield (0.029) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.411) is also within normal values, averaging (3.867).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
TD sees its Stochastic Oscillator recovers from oversold territory
On November 11, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for TD moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 54 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 33 of the 54 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 61%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
TD moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for TD crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 7 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
Following a +1.15% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TD advanced for three days, in 175 of 345 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 197 of 364 cases where TD Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 54%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for TD moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 39 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 16 of the 39 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 41%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TD as a result. In 36 of 76 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 47%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TD turned negative on November 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 24 of the 51 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 47%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TD declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
TD broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 21, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TD’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 66 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.757) is normal, around the industry mean (1.500). P/E Ratio (13.063) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.703). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.006) is also within normal values, averaging (2.139). Dividend Yield (0.026) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.318) is also within normal values, averaging (3.867).
BMO | TD | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 34 | 90 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 66 Overvalued | 66 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 30 | 25 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 3 | 3 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 44 | 41 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 13 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BMO's Valuation (66) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as TD (66). This means that BMO’s stock grew similarly to TD’s over the last 12 months.
TD's Profit vs Risk Rating (25) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as BMO (30). This means that TD’s stock grew similarly to BMO’s over the last 12 months.
TD's SMR Rating (3) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as BMO (3). This means that TD’s stock grew similarly to BMO’s over the last 12 months.
TD's Price Growth Rating (41) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as BMO (44). This means that TD’s stock grew similarly to BMO’s over the last 12 months.
TD's P/E Growth Rating (13) in the Major Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BMO (57). This means that TD’s stock grew somewhat faster than BMO’s over the last 12 months.
| BMO | TD | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 41% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 61% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 47% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 47% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 54% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 54% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 16 days ago 54% | 16 days ago 51% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 56% | 8 days ago 50% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 61% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 54% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BMO’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while TD’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- BMO’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TD’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BMO’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TD’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BMO’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TD’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
BMO (@Major Banks) experienced а +0.28% price change this week, while TD (@Major Banks) price change was +0.58% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Major Banks industry was +1.56%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.03%, and the average quarterly price growth was +10.77%.
Reported Earning Dates
BMO is expected to report earnings on Dec 02, 2026.
TD is expected to report earnings on Dec 03, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Major Banks (+1.56% weekly)Major banks are among the biggest companies in the world, often times with global reach and market capitalizations in the multi-billions. Large banks often have multiple arms spanning different disciplines, from deposits, to investment banking, to wealth management and insurance. The biggest banks often have key competitive advantages over smaller players in the industry in terms of brand recognition, cost of capital, and efficiency. Think J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup.
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TD and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TD has been closely correlated with RY. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TD jumps, then RY could also see price increases.