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RY vs TD
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Royal Bank of Canada (RY) vs. Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) Stock Comparison
1) Key Takeaways
- RY (Royal Bank of Canada) is delivering record earnings, with fiscal third-quarter net income up 11% year over year and return on equity (ROE) near 18%.
- TD (Toronto-Dominion Bank) is in a post-settlement recovery, rebuilding its U.S. franchise while still working through anti-money laundering (AML) remediation and an asset cap.
- Both stocks have rallied strongly in 2026, but RY carries a premium valuation while TD trades at a lower multiple on a turnaround narrative.
- RY's momentum leans on wealth management and capital markets growth; TD's hinges on cost cuts, AI-driven efficiency, and U.S. expansion.
- Relative performance and market positioning differ mainly on risk profile: RY faces tariff and credit exposure, while TD faces ongoing regulatory and compliance costs.
2) Introduction
Royal Bank of Canada and Toronto-Dominion Bank are two of Canada's "Big Six" lenders and among the largest financial institutions in North America by market value. Comparing them offers a useful lens on two very different equity stories: a market leader compounding through scale and fee-based growth versus a peer rebuilding credibility after a major regulatory setback. For investors and traders weighing sector exposure, this stock comparison highlights how relative performance, risk tolerance, and market positioning can lead two similar-looking banks to diverge. Income-focused investors may weigh dividend durability, while momentum traders may focus on trend consistency and near-term catalysts.
3) RY Overview and Recent Performance
Royal Bank of Canada is Canada's largest bank by market capitalization and a diversified financial services provider spanning personal and commercial banking, wealth management, capital markets, and insurance. In its fiscal third quarter, RY reported net income of $6.0 billion, up 11% year over year, on revenue of roughly $18.5 billion. Wealth management income rose 32%, and capital markets income climbed 16%, underscoring a tilt toward fee-based revenue.
Recent stock behavior reflects strength tempered by caution. The shares have climbed substantially over the past year but pulled back modestly from all-time highs in recent weeks as investors weighed newly announced U.S. tariffs on Canadian exports and a rise in provisions for credit losses. Management flagged that Section 338 tariffs could trim Canadian economic output, and gross impaired loans edged higher in select real estate and utility exposures. Against this backdrop, RY continues to return capital aggressively, including a roughly 7% dividend increase and share buybacks, supported by a strong common equity tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio and an ROE near 17.9%.
4) TD Overview and Recent Performance
Toronto-Dominion Bank operates across Canada and the United States with strengths in retail banking, wealth management, and wholesale banking. Its recent history is defined by a 2024 U.S. settlement over anti-money laundering (AML) failings, which imposed a substantial fine, a multi-year remediation program, and a cap on U.S. balance-sheet growth. Since then, TD has focused on cost discipline, digital innovation, and regaining U.S. momentum.
Recent quarters show measurable progress. Adjusted earnings per share rose 21% year over year in the latest reported period, and return on equity improved to 14.4%, while a later quarter delivered record net income with growth across business segments. Management has cited structural cost reductions and artificial intelligence (AI) as central levers, reporting faster-than-expected progress on both. Still, elevated compliance spending persists, and the bank remains subject to a U.S. asset cap while pursuing plans to open roughly 100 new U.S. branches. The stock has rebounded sharply this year, reflecting a recovery story that is well underway but still unfolding.
5) Trending AI Robots
Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page curates a selection of AI trading bots from a much larger library of hundreds of automated systems that trade thousands of different tickers. Because market conditions change, only the best-performing and most suitable robots for the current environment are featured. Each bot has a distinct trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance record, and set of tickers it trades, giving traders a range of approaches to evaluate. Explore the Trending AI Robots section to see which automated strategies are currently positioned for opportunities like those in the banking sector.
6) Head-to-Head Comparison
The two banks differ most in growth drivers and risk profile. RY generates a larger share of earnings from wealth management and capital markets, which have powered its recent outperformance but also expose it to market and credit cycles. TD leans more heavily on North American retail banking, where it holds leading positions in credit cards and direct investing, and where its recovery hinges on margin expansion and cost efficiency.
Momentum has favored TD on a year-to-date basis as it rebounds from a depressed base, while RY offers more consistent, higher-quality earnings but a richer valuation. Risk factors diverge as well: RY's key concerns are tariff-related economic drag and credit provisions, whereas TD's are regulatory remediation costs and the constraints of the U.S. asset cap. Both maintain strong CET1 capital ratios, but sentiment is tilted toward stability for RY and toward turnaround execution for TD.
7) Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor RY on a relative basis. Its earnings trend is more consistent, its fee-based revenue mix offers greater stability, and its return on equity and capital-return capacity remain stronger. While TD presents a compelling recovery and valuation case, its trajectory still depends on regulatory execution and cost-management delivery, which introduces more uncertainty. Probabilistically, the AI model would lean toward RY for trend consistency and fundamental quality, while acknowledging TD's stronger momentum and lower valuation as meaningful counterweights.
8) Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is RY is a StrongBuy and TD is a StrongBuy.
RY's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for RY turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where RY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on RY as a result. In 40 of 75 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
RY moved above its 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for RY crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 7 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
Following a +1.48% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where RY advanced for three days, in 167 of 348 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 48%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for RY moved out of overbought territory on October 30, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 16 of the 43 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 37%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
RY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for RY entered a downward trend on October 19, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 21, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. RY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 68 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.115) is normal, around the industry mean (1.495). P/E Ratio (12.866) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.672). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.257) is also within normal values, averaging (2.139). Dividend Yield (0.025) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. RY's P/S Ratio (5.537) is slightly higher than the industry average of (3.867).
Momentum Indicator for TD turns positive, indicating new upward trend
TD saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 75 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 43 of the 75 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 57%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TD just turned positive on October 14, 2026. Looking at past instances where TD's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 28 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
TD moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for TD crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 7 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
Following a +1.15% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TD advanced for three days, in 175 of 345 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 204 of 360 cases where TD Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 57%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for TD moved out of overbought territory on October 30, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 41 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 18 of the 41 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 44%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 13 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
TD broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 21, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TD’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 68 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.795) is normal, around the industry mean (1.495). P/E Ratio (13.345) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.672). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.006) is also within normal values, averaging (2.139). Dividend Yield (0.025) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.318) is also within normal values, averaging (3.867).
RY | TD | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 39 | 40 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 88 Overvalued | 68 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 12 | 23 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 3 | 3 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 44 | 41 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 68 | 14 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TD's Valuation (68) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as RY (88). This means that TD’s stock grew similarly to RY’s over the last 12 months.
RY's Profit vs Risk Rating (12) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as TD (23). This means that RY’s stock grew similarly to TD’s over the last 12 months.
RY's SMR Rating (3) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as TD (3). This means that RY’s stock grew similarly to TD’s over the last 12 months.
TD's Price Growth Rating (41) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as RY (44). This means that TD’s stock grew similarly to RY’s over the last 12 months.
TD's P/E Growth Rating (14) in the Major Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for RY (68). This means that TD’s stock grew somewhat faster than RY’s over the last 12 months.
| RY | TD | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 37% | 1 day ago 44% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 37% | 1 day ago 49% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 57% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 55% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 46% | 1 day ago 49% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 44% | 1 day ago 54% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 48% | 5 days ago 51% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 26 days ago 54% | N/A |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 37% | 1 day ago 46% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 41% | 4 days ago 57% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
RY’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while TD’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- RY’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TD’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
RY’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TD’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- RY’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TD’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
RY (@Major Banks) experienced а +1.04% price change this week, while TD (@Major Banks) price change was -0.22% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Major Banks industry was +0.29%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.31%, and the average quarterly price growth was +6.60%.
Reported Earning Dates
RY is expected to report earnings on Dec 02, 2026.
TD is expected to report earnings on Dec 03, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Major Banks (+0.29% weekly)Major banks are among the biggest companies in the world, often times with global reach and market capitalizations in the multi-billions. Large banks often have multiple arms spanning different disciplines, from deposits, to investment banking, to wealth management and insurance. The biggest banks often have key competitive advantages over smaller players in the industry in terms of brand recognition, cost of capital, and efficiency. Think J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup.
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RY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, RY has been closely correlated with TD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if RY jumps, then TD could also see price increases.