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BNS vs TD
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) vs. Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BNS has delivered stronger relative momentum over the past year, with a roughly 47% one-year total return versus a more moderate gain for TD.
- Scotiabank's turnaround is earnings-backed: adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose about 21% year over year in its latest quarter, with return on equity (ROE) exceeding its 14% medium-term target.
- TD offers greater scale, a larger U.S. footprint, and a stronger capital buffer (Common Equity Tier 1, or CET1, ratio), but carries an ongoing U.S. regulatory asset cap tied to its anti-money-laundering (AML) remediation.
- BNS currently pays a higher dividend yield (roughly 3.5%) than TD (roughly 2.6%).
- The comparison hinges on a trade-off between BNS's turnaround momentum and higher yield versus TD's scale, diversification, and regulatory-driven balance-sheet discipline.
Introduction
Canadian banking stocks have drawn renewed global attention in recent weeks as foreign institutional ownership of the country's large lenders climbed to its highest level in roughly a quarter-century. Within that group, Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) and Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) present two distinct investment narratives. Scotiabank is executing a well-telegraphed turnaround focused on the North American corridor, while TD is rebuilding credibility after a costly U.S. anti-money-laundering settlement. This stock comparison examines recent performance, business models, risk factors, and market positioning to help traders and income-focused investors assess which of these two lenders better fits the current market environment.
BNS Overview and Recent Performance
Bank of Nova Scotia, commonly known as Scotiabank, is Canada's third-largest lender, operating personal and commercial banking, wealth management, and capital markets across Canada, the United States, and Latin America—including the Pacific Alliance countries of Mexico, Peru, Chile, and Colombia. Under CEO Scott Thomson, management has simplified the bank's international footprint and redirected capital toward a premium North American trade corridor connecting Canada, the United States, and Mexico.
The strategy is showing measurable results. In its most recent quarter, BNS posted record adjusted EPS of C$2.28, up about 21% year over year, while adjusted ROE reached 14.2%—above the bank's medium-term target of greater than 14%. The Canadian Banking segment generated a roughly 19% ROE, and the bank committed over C$100 billion in financing over five years to support Canadian business growth. Recent weeks have also brought an expansion of its normal course issuer bid, raising the repurchase ceiling on common shares. BNS trades at a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio near 16.5 with a dividend yield of about 3.5%, reflecting strong sentiment but a valuation that leaves less margin for disappointment.
TD Overview and Recent Performance
Toronto-Dominion Bank, operating as TD Bank Group, is Canada's second-largest bank and one of North America's largest financial institutions, with dominant Canadian market share and a U.S. retail footprint concentrated along the East Coast. TD derives more than half of its revenue from Canada and roughly 40% from the United States, complemented by wealth management, insurance, and wholesale banking operations.
TD's recent market activity reflects a recovery from a US$3 billion AML settlement that included a US$434 billion asset cap on its U.S. retail bank. Under CEO Raymond Chun, the bank has delivered resilient earnings: adjusted EPS rose about 21% year over year in its latest quarter, with ROE of roughly 14.4% and a strong CET1 ratio near 14.3%. Management also announced a C$10 billion share buyback authorization and a modest dividend increase. Still, elevated remediation and technology spending remain a near-term drag, and the U.S. asset cap constrains balance-sheet growth. TD trades at a P/E near 17 with a dividend yield around 2.6%.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two banks diverge most clearly on geography and growth drivers. BNS carries meaningful exposure to higher-growth but politically sensitive Latin American markets, which adds both opportunity and currency/credit risk. TD skews toward the mature, moat-heavy U.S. and Canadian markets, offering stability but less structural growth upside while its U.S. retail arm operates under an asset cap.
On recent momentum, BNS has outperformed, with a one-year return roughly double TD's, driven by a clear earnings inflection. TD's recovery is steadier but still burdened by compliance costs and a restructuring U.S. balance sheet. Valuation also differs: BNS screens slightly cheaper on forward earnings, while TD commands a premium for scale and capital strength. On income, BNS offers a notably higher yield, whereas TD's 169-year dividend record and disciplined payout ratio signal durability.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors—trend consistency, earnings momentum, valuation, and relative positioning—Tickeron's AI would likely lean slightly toward BNS in the current environment. The combination of sustained positive operating leverage, an ROE now above management's target, a higher dividend yield, and a cheaper forward multiple gives Scotiabank a clearer momentum-and-catalyst profile. That said, TD's superior capital position and scale make it a compelling lower-volatility alternative. The verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: BNS currently presents the more favorable near-term setup, while TD may appeal to investors prioritizing stability and diversified earnings over turnaround momentum.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BNS is a Buy and TD is a StrongBuy.
BNS's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BNS turned positive on October 16, 2026. Looking at past instances where BNS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on BNS as a result. In 39 of 67 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
BNS moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for BNS crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 7 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 41%.
Following a +3.14% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BNS advanced for three days, in 175 of 336 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 182 of 367 cases where BNS Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 50%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BNS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
BNS broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BNS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 20, placing this stock slightly worse than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 54 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.444) is normal, around the industry mean (1.531). P/E Ratio (12.176) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.865). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.996) is also within normal values, averaging (2.139). Dividend Yield (0.034) settles around the average of (0.034) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.050) is also within normal values, averaging (3.867).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 75 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
TD's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TD turned positive on October 14, 2026. Looking at past instances where TD's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TD as a result. In 43 of 75 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
TD moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for TD crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 6 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 43%.
Following a +2.45% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TD advanced for three days, in 175 of 346 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 186 of 360 cases where TD Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 52%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TD declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
TD broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 20, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TD’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 70 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.790) is normal, around the industry mean (1.531). P/E Ratio (13.308) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.865). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.006) is also within normal values, averaging (2.139). Dividend Yield (0.025) settles around the average of (0.034) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.318) is also within normal values, averaging (3.867).
BNS | TD | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 14 | 35 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 54 Fair valued | 70 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 46 | 22 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 3 | 3 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 40 | 41 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 75 | 14 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BNS's Valuation (54) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as TD (70). This means that BNS’s stock grew similarly to TD’s over the last 12 months.
TD's Profit vs Risk Rating (22) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as BNS (46). This means that TD’s stock grew similarly to BNS’s over the last 12 months.
TD's SMR Rating (3) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as BNS (3). This means that TD’s stock grew similarly to BNS’s over the last 12 months.
BNS's Price Growth Rating (40) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as TD (41). This means that BNS’s stock grew similarly to TD’s over the last 12 months.
TD's P/E Growth Rating (14) in the Major Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BNS (75). This means that TD’s stock grew somewhat faster than BNS’s over the last 12 months.
| BNS | TD | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 49% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 44% | 1 day ago 38% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 57% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 61% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 53% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 54% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 1 day ago 51% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 22 days ago 55% | 23 days ago 49% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 37% | 1 day ago 47% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 52% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BNS’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while TD’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- BNS’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TD’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BNS’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TD’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BNS’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TD’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
BNS (@Major Banks) experienced а +4.39% price change this week, while TD (@Major Banks) price change was +6.01% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Major Banks industry was -0.24%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.89%, and the average quarterly price growth was +11.12%.
Reported Earning Dates
BNS is expected to report earnings on Dec 01, 2026.
TD is expected to report earnings on Dec 03, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Major Banks (-0.24% weekly)Major banks are among the biggest companies in the world, often times with global reach and market capitalizations in the multi-billions. Large banks often have multiple arms spanning different disciplines, from deposits, to investment banking, to wealth management and insurance. The biggest banks often have key competitive advantages over smaller players in the industry in terms of brand recognition, cost of capital, and efficiency. Think J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup.
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BNS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BNS has been closely correlated with RY. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BNS jumps, then RY could also see price increases.
TD and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TD has been closely correlated with RY. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TD jumps, then RY could also see price increases.