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BP vs EC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? BP p.l.c. (BP) vs. Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both BP and EC have delivered strong year-to-date gains, with EC at approximately 34% outperforming BP's 26% amid energy sector volatility.
- EC offers a higher dividend yield around 5.14% compared to BP's 4.61%, appealing to income-focused investors.
- BP boasts a larger market cap of $112 billion versus EC's $26 billion, reflecting greater global scale.
- Recent credit downgrade for EC by Moody's contrasts with BP's strong Q1 earnings beat and strategic divestments.
- Both stocks exhibit low betas (BP at -0.22, EC at -0.04), indicating relative stability versus broader market swings.
- EC trades at a lower trailing P/E of 9.3 versus BP's 35, suggesting better value on earnings multiples.
Introduction
This comparison examines BP p.l.c. and Ecopetrol S.A. (EC), two integrated energy firms navigating oil price fluctuations, geopolitical tensions, and the shift toward lower-carbon operations. Both operate in exploration, production, refining, and marketing, but differ in scale and geography—BP with global reach and EC focused on Latin America. Traders seeking momentum in energy stocks and investors eyeing dividends or value plays will find insights into their relative performance, risks, and market positioning in today's volatile environment.
BP Overview and Recent Performance
BP p.l.c., headquartered in London, is a multinational integrated energy company founded in 1908. It operates across Gas & Low Carbon Energy, Oil Production & Operations, and Customers & Products segments, spanning natural gas production, renewables like solar and wind, refining, aviation fuels, EV charging, and lubricants via Castrol. With a market cap of about $112 billion, BP maintains a global footprint.
In recent market activity, BP shares have shown resilience, trading around $43 with a 52-week range of $28.41–$48.27. Year-to-date gains stand at 26%, bolstered by a strong Q1 2026 earnings beat, exceptional oil trading results amid volatility, and analyst upgrades like Erste Group's raised FY2026 EPS estimate. Sentiment has been influenced positively by strategic divestments, Azeri gas-field extensions, and LNG potential, though offset by softer oil prices and UK asset sale concerns. The stock's low beta of -0.22 underscores lower volatility relative to the market.
EC Overview and Recent Performance
Ecopetrol S.A. (EC), based in Bogotá, Colombia, and incorporated in 1948, functions as an integrated energy company. Its segments include Exploration and Production, Transport and Logistics, Refining and Petrochemicals, and Energy Transmission and Toll Roads Concessions. Operations cover crude oil exploration, refining at Barrancabermeja and Cartagena facilities, product transportation, and infrastructure projects across Colombia, the U.S., Latin America, and beyond, with a market cap near $26 billion.
Recent weeks have seen EC shares around $12.64, within a 52-week range of $8.18–$15.62. Year-to-date performance reaches 34%, driven by oil sector tailwinds, though recent dips reflect a Moody's downgrade to Ba2 with a negative outlook and Q1 earnings anticipation. Key developments include partnerships like Parex Resources acquiring stakes in Magdalena Basin assets and filing the 2025 Form 20-F. A beta of -0.04 highlights minimal market correlation, with performance tied closely to regional oil dynamics and production resilience.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
BP and EC share integrated oil and gas models but diverge in scope: BP's worldwide diversification tempers risks, while EC's Colombia-centric focus amplifies exposure to Latin American growth and politics. Growth drivers for BP include LNG expansions and low-carbon transitions; EC leverages regional partnerships and refining capacity.
Recent momentum favors EC on YTD returns (34% vs. 26%), but BP edges stability via Q1 beats. Risk factors contrast: EC faces credit downgrades and revenue dips (-17% quarterly growth), while BP contends with debt and windfall taxes. Both offer strong sector exposure to oil, with EC's lower P/E (9.3 vs. 35) signaling value, but BP higher forward P/E (7.94) hints at earnings growth. Market sentiment tilts toward BP's scale amid global tensions.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward BP based on trend consistency from Q1 earnings strength, global diversification reducing regional risks, and positive analyst revisions amid oil volatility. While EC shows superior YTD momentum and valuation, its recent downgrade introduces uncertainty. Observable catalysts like BP's divestments position it favorably for near-term stability, though energy sector shifts could alter probabilities.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BP is a StrongBuy and EC is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BP’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileEC’s FA Score has 4 green FA rating(s).
- BP’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- EC’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BP’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while EC’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BP’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- EC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
BP (@Integrated Oil) experienced а -0.44% price change this week, while EC (@Integrated Oil) price change was +9.44% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Integrated Oil industry was -0.04%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.12%, and the average quarterly price growth was +29.00%.
Reported Earning Dates
BP is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
EC is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Integrated Oil (-0.04% weekly)Integrated oil companies are involved across nearly the entire oil value chain – from upstream operations like exploration and production, to downstream functions of refining and marketing. Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation and BP are major integrated oil companies. Their bottom lines’ response to crude oil prices could depend on the proportion of upstream vs. downstream businesses; for example, if a company has substantial downstream business, the adverse impact on their upstream business due to falling crude prices could be mitigated by benefits to its downstream business.
| BP | EC | BP / EC | |
| Capitalization | 111B | 32B | 347% |
| EBITDA | 35B | 28.04T | 0% |
| Gain YTD | 26.204 | 82.600 | 32% |
| P/E Ratio | 34.61 | 12.26 | 282% |
| Revenue | 195B | 116.95T | 0% |
| Total Cash | 35.8B | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 74.2B | N/A | - |
BP | EC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 7 | 33 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 24 Undervalued | 28 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 23 | 15 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 84 | 22 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 36 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 99 | 11 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 65 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BP's Valuation (24) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as EC (28). This means that BP’s stock grew similarly to EC’s over the last 12 months.
EC's Profit vs Risk Rating (15) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as BP (23). This means that EC’s stock grew similarly to BP’s over the last 12 months.
EC's SMR Rating (22) in the Integrated Oil industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BP (84). This means that EC’s stock grew somewhat faster than BP’s over the last 12 months.
EC's Price Growth Rating (36) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as BP (47). This means that EC’s stock grew similarly to BP’s over the last 12 months.
EC's P/E Growth Rating (11) in the Integrated Oil industry is significantly better than the same rating for BP (99). This means that EC’s stock grew significantly faster than BP’s over the last 12 months.
| BP | EC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 74% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 66% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 67% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 49% | 3 days ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 51% | 3 days ago 70% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 52% | 3 days ago 70% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 70% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 18 days ago 51% | 12 days ago 60% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 73% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 50% | 3 days ago 69% |
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BP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BP has been closely correlated with SHEL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BP jumps, then SHEL could also see price increases.
EC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, EC has been loosely correlated with CRGY. These tickers have moved in lockstep 61% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if EC jumps, then CRGY could also see price increases.