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CRGY vs EC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Crescent Energy Company (CRGY) vs. Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CRGY delivered a YTD return of approximately 49%, outperforming the broader market amid strong U.S. oil production and Permian Basin integration.
- EC posted a YTD gain of around 34% and a 1-year return of 63%, supported by diversified operations but pressured by recent credit rating downgrades.
- Recent weeks saw CRGY report record Q1 2026 production of 341 MBoe/d (thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day) and $1 billion projected levered free cash flow for the year.
- EC faces headwinds from Moody's downgrade to Ba2, though partnerships like Parex Resources in Colombia bolster growth prospects.
- Both stocks benefit from energy sector momentum, but CRGY's U.S.-focused E&P (exploration and production) model offers lower geopolitical risk compared to EC's Latin American exposure.
- Tickeron's AI tools highlight relative strength in U.S. independents like CRGY for trend consistency in recent market activity.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines CRGY and EC, two energy firms navigating volatile oil prices and geopolitical shifts. CRGY, a U.S.-based exploration and production company, contrasts with EC, Colombia's integrated state-controlled oil giant. Traders seeking exposure to North American shale growth or Latin American diversification, and investors tracking relative performance in the oil and gas sector, will find value in analyzing their business models, recent momentum, and market positioning. This analysis draws on data from Yahoo Finance, Reuters, and other sources to provide objective insights into their current trajectories.
CRGY Overview and Recent Performance
Crescent Energy Company (CRGY) is an independent U.S. energy firm focused on acquiring, developing, and producing oil, natural gas, and NGLs (natural gas liquids) primarily in the Eagle Ford, Permian, and Uinta basins. Headquartered in Houston, it emphasizes consolidation and operational efficiencies in key shale plays.
In recent market activity, CRGY shares have shown resilience, with a YTD return near 49% and 1-year gains around 56%, trading at approximately $12.40 with a market cap of $4.1 billion. Q1 2026 results highlighted record production of 341 MBoe/d, surpassing guidance, driven by Permian integration synergies and base optimizations. Revenue rose 24% year-over-year to $1.18 billion, with adjusted EBITDA at $690 million and levered free cash flow of $192 million. A quarterly dividend of $0.12 per share was declared, supporting sentiment amid oil price surges. Analyst upgrades and a consensus price target above $15 reflect optimism on capital efficiency and debt management.
EC Overview and Recent Performance
Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) is Colombia's largest integrated energy company, operating across exploration and production, transport and logistics, refining, petrochemicals, and power transmission. It spans Colombia, the U.S. Gulf Coast, and other regions, with major refineries at Barrancabermeja and Cartagena.
Recent weeks have seen mixed signals for EC, with shares at about $12.64, a YTD return of 34%, and 1-year performance of 63%, alongside a $26 billion market cap. Strategic moves include partnerships like Parex Resources acquiring stakes in Magdalena Basin assets and vessel hires for fuel transport efficiency. However, Moody's downgraded its rating to Ba2 with a negative outlook, citing fiscal pressures, contributing to share pressure. Q1 2026 earnings are pending, but prior filings and expansions signal resilience in production and logistics amid regional dynamics.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
CRGY and EC operate in oil and gas but differ markedly in scale and structure. CRGY's upstream E&P model targets U.S. shale for agile growth via M&A (mergers and acquisitions), yielding higher recent momentum (49% YTD) but elevated volatility from commodity exposure. EC's integrated operations provide downstream stability through refining (410-420 MBbl/d throughput) and transport (1.1 MMbbl/d capacity), fostering dividend appeal but introducing sovereign risk in Colombia.
Growth drivers contrast: CRGY leverages Permian synergies for $1B free cash flow projection; EC pursues regional partnerships amid credit concerns. Risk factors include oil price sensitivity for both, but EC faces geopolitical and rating pressures (P/E 9.3 vs. CRGY's 25.4). Sector exposure favors CRGY in U.S. shale trends, while sentiment tilts toward EC for value in integrated plays.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI analysis leans toward CRGY in the current environment, citing superior trend consistency from record production, Permian catalysts, and U.S. operational stability. While EC offers compelling longer-term value and diversification, recent downgrades introduce uncertainty. AI favors CRGY with higher probability for near-term outperformance based on momentum and free cash flow positioning.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CRGY is a Hold and EC is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CRGY’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileEC’s FA Score has 4 green FA rating(s).
- CRGY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- EC’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CRGY’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while EC’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CRGY’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- EC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CRGY (@Oil & Gas Production) experienced а +0.35% price change this week, while EC (@Integrated Oil) price change was +9.44% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil & Gas Production industry was +0.22%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.70%, and the average quarterly price growth was +19.88%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Integrated Oil industry was -0.04%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.12%, and the average quarterly price growth was +29.00%.
Reported Earning Dates
CRGY is expected to report earnings on Aug 10, 2026.
EC is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil & Gas Production (+0.22% weekly)The oil and gas production segment includes companies that specialize in exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. These companies are focused on upstream operations. Companies typically identify deposits, drill wells, and extract raw materials from underground. The industry also includes related services like rig operations, feasibility studies, machinery rentals etc. Several operators in this industry work with various types of contractors such as engineering procurement and construction contractors, as well as with joint-venture partners and oil field service companies. Oil and gas often involves large fixed costs of production; so, declining crude oil prices, for example, is a potential negative for this industry. Conoco Phillips, EOG Resources, Inc. and Pioneer Natural Resources Company are some examples of companies operating in this space.
@Integrated Oil (-0.04% weekly)Integrated oil companies are involved across nearly the entire oil value chain – from upstream operations like exploration and production, to downstream functions of refining and marketing. Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation and BP are major integrated oil companies. Their bottom lines’ response to crude oil prices could depend on the proportion of upstream vs. downstream businesses; for example, if a company has substantial downstream business, the adverse impact on their upstream business due to falling crude prices could be mitigated by benefits to its downstream business.
| CRGY | EC | CRGY / EC | |
| Capitalization | 3.82B | 32B | 12% |
| EBITDA | 1.26B | 28.04T | 0% |
| Gain YTD | 40.731 | 82.600 | 49% |
| P/E Ratio | 25.39 | 12.26 | 207% |
| Revenue | 3.81B | 116.95T | 0% |
| Total Cash | 9.78M | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 5.37B | N/A | - |
EC | ||
|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 33 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 28 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 15 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 22 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 36 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 11 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 65 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
| CRGY | EC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 74% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 86% | 3 days ago 66% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 74% | 3 days ago 67% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 77% | 3 days ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 78% | 3 days ago 70% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 74% | 3 days ago 70% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 27 days ago 78% | 3 days ago 70% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 19 days ago 74% | 12 days ago 60% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 73% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 74% | 3 days ago 69% |
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| FGM | 64.35 | 0.77 | +1.21% |
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CRGY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CRGY has been closely correlated with CHRD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CRGY jumps, then CHRD could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CRGY | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRGY | 100% | +0.87% | ||
| CHRD - CRGY | 82% Closely correlated | +1.20% | ||
| MGY - CRGY | 81% Closely correlated | +1.43% | ||
| OVV - CRGY | 80% Closely correlated | +1.63% | ||
| NOG - CRGY | 80% Closely correlated | +1.81% | ||
| PR - CRGY | 79% Closely correlated | +1.30% | ||
More | ||||
EC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, EC has been loosely correlated with CRGY. These tickers have moved in lockstep 61% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if EC jumps, then CRGY could also see price increases.