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CRGY vs EC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Crescent Energy Company (CRGY) vs. Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Crescent Energy (CRGY) is a U.S.-focused exploration and production (E&P) company expanding through acquisitions, while Ecopetrol (EC) is Colombia's state-controlled integrated oil and gas major.
- CRGY has delivered a sharp year-to-date rally driven by earnings beats and a large Eagle Ford acquisition, though the stock recently pulled back on deal-financing news.
- EC has surged from a low base on surging refining margins and earnings, but analysts' consensus remains cautious with a "Sell" rating.
- The two companies differ fundamentally in geography, business mix, valuation, and risk profile, despite both operating in the broader energy sector.
- Relative momentum currently favors CRGY, while EC offers a dividend and lower valuation but carries country and currency risk.
Introduction
Energy stocks often get grouped together, but the investment profiles of CRGY and EC could hardly be more different. Crescent Energy is a U.S.-based independent producer executing a growth-through-acquisition strategy across the Eagle Ford, Permian, and Uinta basins. Ecopetrol is Colombia's largest integrated energy company, spanning upstream production, refining, and transportation. This stock comparison is most relevant for investors weighing a high-momentum U.S. producer against an integrated emerging-market operator with a dividend yield and turnaround story. Understanding their relative performance, market positioning, and distinct risk factors can help traders and investors assess which profile better suits current market conditions.
CRGY Overview and Recent Performance
Crescent Energy Company is a Houston-based oil and gas producer with operations concentrated in the Eagle Ford, Permian, and Uinta basins, along with a growing minerals and royalties platform. The company has pursued a disciplined, returns-driven acquisition strategy, most recently agreeing to acquire Devon Energy's Eagle Ford assets for an estimated $3.85 billion, alongside a $1 billion equity offering to help fund the deal.
Recent market activity has been notably strong for CRGY, with shares up more than 60% year to date at points during the period, driven by consecutive quarterly earnings beats, record production, and cost efficiencies. In its most recent quarter, the company reported adjusted earnings well above consensus and revenue that also exceeded estimates, supported by higher oil realizations and output growth. However, momentum cooled in recent weeks as investors reassessed the equity dilution and debt associated with the Eagle Ford acquisition. Analysts remain broadly constructive, with a consensus "Buy" rating and an average price target implying meaningful upside, though the stock trades at a comparatively high price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple relative to energy peers.
EC Overview and Recent Performance
Ecopetrol S.A. is Colombia's largest company and its state-controlled, integrated energy operator, active across exploration and production, transportation and logistics, and refining and petrochemicals. The company also holds a growing international footprint, including a planned majority acquisition of Brazil's Brava Energia.
EC has experienced a pronounced re-rating from a low base. The American Depositary Receipt (ADR) has more than doubled from its 52-week low, supported by sharply improved refining margins and stronger-than-expected quarterly results. In its most recent quarter, revenue rose over 60% year over year and net income more than tripled, with refining margins up 60% and consolidated throughput at elevated levels. Production has held near its guided range, though natural gas output and international volumes remain soft spots. Despite the operational improvement, Wall Street sentiment stays cautious: the consensus rating is a "Sell" with an average price target below the current price, reflecting concerns over the Colombian peso, political and regulatory dynamics, and a shorter reserve life relative to peers.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The contrast between CRGY and EC is most visible in their business models. Crescent Energy is a pure-play upstream producer whose growth is driven by acquisitions and operational efficiency, concentrated entirely in U.S. onshore basins. Ecopetrol is a diversified, integrated operator whose refining and transportation segments help offset upstream volatility, but whose results are tied to Colombia's economy, currency, and policy environment.
On growth drivers, CRGY benefits from scale, inventory quality, and identified cost synergies, while EC leans on refining margins, exploration milestones, and international expansion. Recent momentum favors CRGY, which has sustained a strong upward trend, whereas EC has rallied sharply but faces analyst skepticism about sustainability.
Risk profiles diverge sharply. CRGY carries elevated financial leverage from its acquisition program and a rich P/E multiple. EC faces currency devaluation, political and regulatory risk, and a weaker free-cash-flow yield relative to peers. On sector exposure, both are commodity-sensitive, but CRGY offers purer leverage to U.S. oil and gas prices, while EC adds downstream and midstream diversification plus a dividend yield of roughly 3.6%.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely express a modest preference for CRGY in the current environment. The company shows more consistent trend momentum, a consensus "Buy" rating, positive estimate-revision trends, and identifiable catalysts in the form of acquisition synergies and production growth. In contrast, EC presents a more mixed picture: strong earnings and a rallying share price offset by a "Sell" consensus, currency exposure, and a higher degree of country-specific risk. That said, the verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive, as relative positioning can shift quickly with commodity prices and macro developments. Investors weighing stability, catalysts, and trend consistency may find CRGY more aligned with current signals, while EC may appeal to those seeking value and income with a higher tolerance for emerging-market risk.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CRGY is a StrongBuy and EC is a StrongBuy.
CRGY's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CRGY turned positive on October 19, 2026. Looking at past instances where CRGY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CRGY as a result. In 71 of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
CRGY moved above its 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +4.13% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CRGY advanced for three days, in 253 of 318 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 10-day moving average for CRGY crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 09, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 12 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CRGY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
The Aroon Indicator for CRGY entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CRGY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 91 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.878) is normal, around the industry mean (4.076). CRGY's P/E Ratio (152.111) is considerably higher than the industry average of (3.993). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (1.958). Dividend Yield (0.035) settles around the average of (0.044) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.055) is also within normal values, averaging (5.980).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CRGY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 70, placing this stock worse than average.
EC in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026
The 10-day moving average for EC crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 14 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
EC moved above its 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.89% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where EC advanced for three days, in 237 of 334 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 42 of 65 cases where EC's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on EC as a result. In 50 of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for EC turned negative on October 27, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 30 of the 49 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 61%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where EC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
EC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 13, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for EC entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 26, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 5 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: EC's P/B Ratio (0.000) is very low in comparison to the industry average of (1.707). EC has a moderately low P/E Ratio (0.002) as compared to the industry average of (11.466). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.670) is also within normal values, averaging (1.088). EC's Dividend Yield (0.152) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.047). P/S Ratio (0.986) is also within normal values, averaging (3.764).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. EC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
EC | ||
|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 78 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 5 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 1 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 20 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 38 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 97 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
| CRGY | EC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 57% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 86% | 2 days ago 61% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 60% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 72% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 80% | 15 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 72% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 67% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CRGY’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while EC’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- CRGY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- EC’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CRGY’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while EC’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CRGY’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- EC’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
CRGY (@Oil & Gas Production) experienced а +1.33% price change this week, while EC (@Integrated Oil) price change was -2.21% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil & Gas Production industry was +3.10%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +9.59%, and the average quarterly price growth was -0.48%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Integrated Oil industry was -0.61%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +4.56%, and the average quarterly price growth was +5.39%.
Reported Earning Dates
CRGY is expected to report earnings on Nov 02, 2026.
EC is expected to report earnings on Nov 10, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil & Gas Production (+3.10% weekly)The oil and gas production segment includes companies that specialize in exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. These companies are focused on upstream operations. Companies typically identify deposits, drill wells, and extract raw materials from underground. The industry also includes related services like rig operations, feasibility studies, machinery rentals etc. Several operators in this industry work with various types of contractors such as engineering procurement and construction contractors, as well as with joint-venture partners and oil field service companies. Oil and gas often involves large fixed costs of production; so, declining crude oil prices, for example, is a potential negative for this industry. Conoco Phillips, EOG Resources, Inc. and Pioneer Natural Resources Company are some examples of companies operating in this space.
@Integrated Oil (-0.61% weekly)Integrated oil companies are involved across nearly the entire oil value chain – from upstream operations like exploration and production, to downstream functions of refining and marketing. Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation and BP are major integrated oil companies. Their bottom lines’ response to crude oil prices could depend on the proportion of upstream vs. downstream businesses; for example, if a company has substantial downstream business, the adverse impact on their upstream business due to falling crude prices could be mitigated by benefits to its downstream business.
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CRGY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CRGY has been closely correlated with CHRD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 84% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CRGY jumps, then CHRD could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CRGY | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRGY | 100% | -1.37% | ||
| CHRD - CRGY | 84% Closely correlated | -1.82% | ||
| PR - CRGY | 81% Closely correlated | -1.20% | ||
| OVV - CRGY | 80% Closely correlated | -1.96% | ||
| APA - CRGY | 79% Closely correlated | -1.68% | ||
| MGY - CRGY | 78% Closely correlated | -0.30% | ||
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