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EC vs EQNR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Ecopetrol (EC) vs. Equinor (EQNR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both EC and EQNR are integrated energy companies, but they operate with very different geographic footprints, cost structures, and geopolitical exposures.
- EQNR has benefited strongly from elevated oil and gas prices, delivering record production and sharply higher profits in recent quarters.
- EC has shown resilient profitability and strong refining margins, though a rising Colombian peso and higher logistics costs have pressured reported results.
- Relative performance has diverged: EQNR shares have climbed substantially year to date, while analyst sentiment on EC remains more cautious despite the stock's recovery.
- This stock comparison is most relevant for investors weighing a European gas-exposed major against a Latin American state-linked producer with a heavier refining footprint.
Introduction
Energy equities rarely move in lockstep, even within the same sector. This stock comparison examines EC, Ecopetrol S.A. — Colombia's majority state-owned integrated oil and gas company — against EQNR, Equinor ASA, the Norwegian integrated energy major. Both generate the bulk of earnings from upstream production, refining, and midstream operations, yet their relative performance and market positioning have diverged meaningfully in recent weeks. Investors and traders focused on energy exposure, dividend income, and geopolitical risk may find this comparison useful for understanding how a Latin American producer stacks up against a European supplier of oil and natural gas.
EC Overview and Recent Performance
EC, or Ecopetrol S.A., is Colombia's largest integrated energy company, spanning exploration and production, transportation and logistics, and refining and petrochemicals. Its American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) trade on the New York Stock Exchange, and the company remains a major crude exporter with a substantial domestic refining business.
In recent quarters, Ecopetrol has posted resilient operational results. First-quarter 2026 revenue reached COP 28.6 trillion, with EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) of COP 13.5 trillion and a margin of roughly 47%. Refining has been a standout, with throughput rising and refining margins improving sharply, partly offsetting softer gas output. Production has held near its target range at roughly 725,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), though management has flagged lower gas production as a structural challenge.
Recent market activity has seen EC recover from earlier lows, supported by firmer crude prices and positive earnings estimate revisions. However, a stronger Colombian peso and elevated freight costs have pressured results, and sell-side views remain divided, with several analysts maintaining cautious ratings on valuation grounds despite the improvement in fundamentals.
EQNR Overview and Recent Performance
EQNR, or Equinor ASA, is a Norwegian integrated energy company and a leading supplier of oil and natural gas to Europe, with additional upstream operations in the United States and internationally. It also maintains a growing renewables segment alongside its core hydrocarbon business.
Equinor's recent results have been notably strong. It reported record production of 2,313 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d) in the first quarter of 2026, up 9% year over year, and second-quarter adjusted pretax profit of roughly $11.5 billion, nearly double the prior-year figure, as elevated oil and gas prices lifted cash flow. The company has doubled its share buyback program and continued returning capital through dividends.
In recent market activity, EQNR shares have climbed substantially year to date, outperforming the broader European energy sector. Its position as a major European gas supplier, with limited direct exposure to Middle East disruptions, has supported sentiment during a period of heightened geopolitical tension.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies present contrasting risk-and-reward profiles. EQNR benefits from a large, low-cost production base on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS), strong European gas pricing, and a healthy balance sheet that supports aggressive capital returns. Its scale and geographic diversification — including a sizable U.S. position — provide relative stability, though its earnings remain highly sensitive to European gas and global oil prices.
EC, by contrast, is more concentrated in Colombia and carries a heavier downstream refining footprint, which has actually been a recent source of strength. Its valuation appears lower, but it faces distinct risks: peso volatility, logistics costs, structural gas declines, and political or fiscal considerations tied to its state ownership. Growth drivers also differ — Equinor leans on production volume growth and trading gains, while Ecopetrol is emphasizing portfolio optimization, international expansion, and refining efficiency.
On market sentiment, EQNR has attracted more consistent upward estimate revisions and price momentum, whereas EC shows improving fundamentals alongside more divided analyst opinion.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, earnings momentum, and stability of catalysts, Tickeron's AI would likely favor EQNR in the current environment. Equinor's record production, strong cash generation, rising estimate revisions, and cleaner relative price trend offer a more consistent signal set. EC presents a credible turnaround and improving refining story, but its profile carries more idiosyncratic risk from currency, logistics, and political factors, which tends to reduce statistical confidence in its trend. This assessment reflects a probabilistic, data-driven view rather than a definitive forecast, and relative positioning could shift as commodity prices and fundamentals evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is EC is a StrongBuy and EQNR is a Buy.
EC in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026
The 10-day moving average for EC crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 14 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
EC moved above its 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.89% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where EC advanced for three days, in 237 of 334 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 42 of 65 cases where EC's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on EC as a result. In 50 of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for EC turned negative on October 27, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 30 of the 49 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 61%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where EC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
EC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 13, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for EC entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 26, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 5 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: EC's P/B Ratio (0.000) is very low in comparison to the industry average of (1.707). EC has a moderately low P/E Ratio (0.002) as compared to the industry average of (11.466). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.670) is also within normal values, averaging (1.088). EC's Dividend Yield (0.152) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.047). P/S Ratio (0.986) is also within normal values, averaging (3.764).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. EC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
Aroon Indicator for EQNR shows an upward move is likely
EQNR's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on October 27, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 236 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In 177 of the 236 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at 75%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on EQNR as a result. In 57 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for EQNR just turned positive on October 12, 2026. Looking at past instances where EQNR's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 53 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
EQNR moved above its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +5.85% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where EQNR advanced for three days, in 213 of 313 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for EQNR moved out of overbought territory on October 26, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 34 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 22 of the 34 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 65%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where EQNR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
EQNR broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 23, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 26, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. EQNR’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 58 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: EQNR's P/B Ratio (2.591) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.707). P/E Ratio (12.753) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.466). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.109) is also within normal values, averaging (1.088). Dividend Yield (0.033) settles around the average of (0.047) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.972) is also within normal values, averaging (3.764).
EC | EQNR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 78 | 39 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 5 Undervalued | 58 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 1 | 13 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 20 | 45 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 38 | 36 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 97 | 8 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 42 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
EC's Valuation (5) in the Integrated Oil industry is somewhat better than the same rating for EQNR (58). This means that EC’s stock grew somewhat faster than EQNR’s over the last 12 months.
EC's Profit vs Risk Rating (1) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as EQNR (13). This means that EC’s stock grew similarly to EQNR’s over the last 12 months.
EC's SMR Rating (20) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as EQNR (45). This means that EC’s stock grew similarly to EQNR’s over the last 12 months.
EQNR's Price Growth Rating (36) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as EC (38). This means that EQNR’s stock grew similarly to EC’s over the last 12 months.
EQNR's P/E Growth Rating (8) in the Integrated Oil industry is significantly better than the same rating for EC (97). This means that EQNR’s stock grew significantly faster than EC’s over the last 12 months.
| EC | EQNR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 65% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 66% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 64% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 66% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 65% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 15 days ago 71% | 6 days ago 68% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 58% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 65% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 75% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
EC’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while EQNR’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- EC’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- EQNR’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
EC’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while EQNR’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- EC’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- EQNR’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
EC (@Integrated Oil) experienced а -2.21% price change this week, while EQNR (@Integrated Oil) price change was +2.84% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Integrated Oil industry was -0.36%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +4.80%, and the average quarterly price growth was +5.62%.
Reported Earning Dates
EC is expected to report earnings on Nov 10, 2026.
EQNR is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Integrated Oil (-0.36% weekly)Integrated oil companies are involved across nearly the entire oil value chain – from upstream operations like exploration and production, to downstream functions of refining and marketing. Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation and BP are major integrated oil companies. Their bottom lines’ response to crude oil prices could depend on the proportion of upstream vs. downstream businesses; for example, if a company has substantial downstream business, the adverse impact on their upstream business due to falling crude prices could be mitigated by benefits to its downstream business.
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EC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, EC has been loosely correlated with CRGY. These tickers have moved in lockstep 61% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if EC jumps, then CRGY could also see price increases.