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BURL vs TJX
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Burlington Stores (BURL) vs. The TJX Companies (TJX) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both BURL and TJX are leading off-price retailers that delivered strong second-quarter results with earnings beats and revenue growth in recent market activity.
- BURL reported adjusted EPS growth of 38% year over year and continues aggressive store expansion toward 2,000 locations, though its shares have declined sharply in recent weeks.
- TJX posted 5% sales growth and raised full-year guidance, supported by a larger scale, dividend payments, and lower volatility compared to smaller peers.
- Both stocks have traded lower in recent market activity despite positive fundamentals, reflecting sector-wide pressures and post-earnings reactions.
- TJX offers greater stability with a market capitalization exceeding $140 billion and a dividend yield, while BURL provides higher growth potential but with elevated price swings.
- Analyst consensus remains positive for both, with price targets suggesting upside, though recent relative performance favors the larger operator’s resilience.
Introduction
Off-price retail has proven resilient amid shifting consumer spending patterns, making BURL and TJX natural subjects for comparison. Both companies source branded merchandise at discounts and appeal to value-conscious shoppers, yet they differ in scale, geographic reach, and operational focus. This analysis examines their recent performance, business models, and market positioning to assist traders and investors evaluating relative opportunities within the consumer discretionary sector during the current environment.
BURL Overview and Recent Performance
Burlington Stores operates as an off-price retailer specializing in apparel, footwear, and home goods. In recent market activity, the company reported robust second-quarter results, including an 11% revenue increase and adjusted earnings per share growth of 38% year over year, marking its 15th consecutive quarter of double-digit EPS expansion. Management highlighted store expansion with 45 net new locations added, advancing toward a long-term target of 2,000 stores. Despite these operational gains, shares of BURL have experienced notable pressure in recent weeks, trading near the lower end of their 52-week range amid broader retail sector dynamics and post-earnings volatility.
TJX Overview and Recent Performance
The TJX Companies manages a portfolio of off-price banners including T.J. Maxx and Marshalls, offering apparel and home fashions across a wider international footprint. Recent results showed net sales rising 5% in the second quarter, with comparable sales up 4%, alongside an earnings beat and raised full-year guidance. The company also declared its quarterly dividend and appointed a new board member. Shares of TJX declined following the earnings release in recent market activity, though the stock has demonstrated relative stability compared to smaller competitors, supported by its substantial scale and consistent capital return program.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both companies employ an off-price model that emphasizes opportunistic buying and rapid inventory turnover, yet TJX operates at significantly larger scale with diversified banners and international presence, contributing to lower beta and steadier cash flows. BURL focuses more intensely on domestic store growth and has delivered faster recent earnings momentum, though this comes with higher share-price volatility. Sector exposure overlaps in apparel and home goods, where both benefit from value-seeking consumers, but TJX’s dividend and share repurchase activity provide an additional layer of shareholder return not present at BURL. Recent momentum shows both names declining despite earnings strength, highlighting sensitivity to macroeconomic sentiment over company-specific catalysts.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including trend consistency, earnings stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a modest probabilistic preference to TJX. Its larger scale, lower volatility profile, and ongoing capital returns appear to support more consistent performance characteristics in the recent environment compared with the higher-growth but more variable trajectory at BURL. This assessment remains subject to evolving market conditions and further data.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BURL is a Hold and TJX is a Hold.
BURL's RSI Oscillator ascends from oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for BURL moved out of oversold territory on September 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 24 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 22 of the 24 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BURL just turned positive on September 21, 2026. Looking at past instances where BURL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 41 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
Following a +1.62% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BURL advanced for three days, in 219 of 305 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 180 of 250 cases where BURL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 72%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 40 of 63 cases where BURL's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on BURL as a result. In 64 of 95 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
The 50-day moving average for BURL moved below the 200-day moving average on September 25, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BURL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BURL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 66 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 78 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: BURL's P/B Ratio (8.354) is slightly higher than the industry average of (3.366). P/E Ratio (23.934) is within average values for comparable stocks, (154.317). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.955) is also within normal values, averaging (0.517). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.013) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.212) is also within normal values, averaging (0.652).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BURL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock worse than average.
TJX in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026
TJX moved above its 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 35 of 55 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TJX as a result. In 41 of 71 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TJX just turned positive on September 18, 2026. Looking at past instances where TJX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 25 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
Following a +2.28% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TJX advanced for three days, in 196 of 338 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 15 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TJX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 35%.
TJX broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for TJX entered a downward trend on September 25, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TJX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 71 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 93 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: TJX's P/B Ratio (13.459) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (3.366). P/E Ratio (24.120) is within average values for comparable stocks, (154.317). TJX's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.543) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (0.517). Dividend Yield (0.014) settles around the average of (0.013) among similar stocks. TJX's P/S Ratio (2.210) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (0.652).
BURL | TJX | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 37 | 37 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 78 Overvalued | 93 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 26 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 25 | 18 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 47 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 66 | 71 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BURL's Valuation (78) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry is in the same range as TJX (93). This means that BURL’s stock grew similarly to TJX’s over the last 12 months.
TJX's Profit vs Risk Rating (26) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry is significantly better than the same rating for BURL (100). This means that TJX’s stock grew significantly faster than BURL’s over the last 12 months.
TJX's SMR Rating (18) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry is in the same range as BURL (25). This means that TJX’s stock grew similarly to BURL’s over the last 12 months.
TJX's Price Growth Rating (47) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry is in the same range as BURL (57). This means that TJX’s stock grew similarly to BURL’s over the last 12 months.
BURL's P/E Growth Rating (66) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry is in the same range as TJX (71). This means that BURL’s stock grew similarly to TJX’s over the last 12 months.
| BURL | TJX | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | 1 day ago 32% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 44% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 58% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 83% | 1 day ago 53% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 58% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 54% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 72% | 3 days ago 58% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 29 days ago 35% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 40% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 41% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BURL’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while TJX’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- BURL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TJX’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BURL’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TJX’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BURL’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TJX’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
BURL (@Apparel/Footwear Retail) experienced а -4.75% price change this week, while TJX (@Apparel/Footwear Retail) price change was +3.25% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Apparel/Footwear Retail industry was -1.35%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.26%, and the average quarterly price growth was -9.66%.
Reported Earning Dates
BURL is expected to report earnings on Nov 24, 2026.
TJX is expected to report earnings on Nov 18, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Apparel/Footwear Retail (-1.35% weekly)Companies in the apparel and/or footwear retail industry sell clothing, accessories and footwear, for different age groups and genders. The industry’s product categories could range from basics, such as underwear, to luxury items. Some retailers source items from wholesalers or an apparel brand to sell in their stores; some others are licensed to make and market their own retail goods under particular brands. Several companies outsource production of clothing to developing/emerging economies where labor costs are relatively inexpensive. Apparel retail is often influenced by fashion trends, and many companies feel the need to adapt to what’s “in vogue” to retain customers and attract new ones. A major disruption in this industry has been the burgeoning trend in digital shopping – to compete with rapidly growing e-commerce, even traditional retail players are upping the ante on their online platforms. Much of the products’ performance in apparel/footwear retail is cyclical, i.e., economic boom times encourage consumer spending, while recessions induce thriftiness among people. Some large-cap U.S. apparel/footwear retail companies include TJX Companies Inc., Ross Stores, Inc., Lululemon Athletica Inc. and Burlington Stores, Inc.
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BURL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BURL has been loosely correlated with ROST. These tickers have moved in lockstep 52% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if BURL jumps, then ROST could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BURL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BURL | 100% | -1.81% | ||
| ROST - BURL | 52% Loosely correlated | -0.07% | ||
| TJX - BURL | 44% Loosely correlated | -0.30% | ||
| DBI - BURL | 41% Loosely correlated | +0.86% | ||
| BOOT - BURL | 35% Loosely correlated | -2.00% | ||
| CAL - BURL | 34% Loosely correlated | +0.82% | ||
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TJX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TJX has been loosely correlated with ROST. These tickers have moved in lockstep 57% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if TJX jumps, then ROST could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TJX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJX | 100% | -0.30% | ||
| ROST - TJX | 57% Loosely correlated | -0.07% | ||
| BURL - TJX | 43% Loosely correlated | -1.81% | ||
| GAP - TJX | 38% Loosely correlated | +0.22% | ||
| BKE - TJX | 37% Loosely correlated | +1.02% | ||
| DBI - TJX | 37% Loosely correlated | +0.86% | ||
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