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BURL vs TJX
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Burlington Stores (BURL) vs. The TJX Companies (TJX) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BURL is a smaller, faster-growing off-price retailer focused on store expansion, while TJX is the category leader with far larger scale, global reach, and a dividend.
- Both companies have reported strong earnings growth, but each has seen meaningful share-price pullbacks in recent weeks amid broader retail and consumer-spending caution.
- Burlington Stores is driving growth through its "Burlington 2.0" strategy and an aggressive new-store program, while TJX relies on steady comparable-store gains and shareholder returns.
- Valuation, volatility, and growth profile diverge sharply: BURL carries a higher beta and a growth-oriented multiple, while TJX offers lower beta and more stable cash flow.
- Their relative positioning ultimately depends on whether an investor prioritizes growth potential and turnaround optionality or scale, stability, and income.
Introduction
Investors evaluating the off-price retail sector frequently weigh BURL against TJX, two names that share a business model yet occupy very different positions in the market. Burlington Stores, Inc. is a growth-oriented discounter expanding its footprint across the United States, while The TJX Companies, Inc. operates a mature global portfolio including T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods, and TK Maxx. This stock comparison is relevant for traders assessing relative performance and momentum, as well as longer-term investors weighing market positioning, growth drivers, and risk. Understanding how these two companies differ can clarify which profile better fits a given portfolio strategy.
BURL Overview and Recent Performance
BURL (Burlington Stores, Inc.) is an off-price retailer of branded apparel and home goods. Its "Burlington 2.0" initiative emphasizes store productivity, supply-chain efficiency, and margin improvement. The company has reported a sustained streak of double-digit earnings growth, and in its most recent quarters comparable store sales (sales at locations open at least a year, or "comps") and earnings per share (EPS, profit allocated to each share) exceeded guidance.
Recent market activity, however, has been more cautious. After reaching an all-time high in mid-2026, shares pulled back substantially in recent weeks, reflecting softer revenue expectations, higher-than-typical inventory, and management commentary citing a more cautious consumer environment tied to factors such as gasoline prices and mixed sector-wide retail results. Burlington also faces a temporary comparable-sales headwind from the high volume of new store openings. Despite this, the company raised its full-year guidance and continues to open stores at a record pace, which investors view as both a growth catalyst and a near-term cost pressure.
TJX Overview and Recent Performance
TJX (The TJX Companies, Inc.) is the world's leading off-price retailer of apparel and home fashions, with more than 5,000 stores across brands such as T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods, and Sierra. Its diversified, global footprint and buying scale provide a durable competitive advantage. The company has delivered consistent comparable-store growth, including a strong 6% increase in its most recent quarter, alongside expanding pretax profit margins and rising EPS.
Like its peer, TJX has experienced a notable share-price decline in recent weeks despite fundamentally solid results, a move analysts have attributed partly to valuation concerns after a prolonged rally and broader uncertainty around consumer spending and tariffs. The stock's lower beta (a measure of volatility relative to the broader market) reflects its reputation for stability. TJX continues to return significant capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, and it raised its full-year earnings and buyback guidance following its latest quarterly report.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies share an off-price model but differ sharply in scale and trajectory. TJX generates roughly $60 billion in annual revenue and operates internationally, while BURL is a domestic, mid-cap business with revenue around $12 billion. This scale gap translates into different growth profiles: Burlington's expansion is driven primarily by new store openings and margin expansion, whereas TJX grows through comparable-store gains, modest square-footage growth, and buybacks.
Risk factors also diverge. BURL carries a higher beta and greater sensitivity to seasonal categories such as outerwear, making its results more variable. TJX's diversification across geographies and banners provides more balance, though its larger size limits the pace of outsized growth. Valuation reflects this trade-off, with Burlington often trading at a growth-oriented multiple while TJX commands a premium for consistency and its dividend. On recent momentum, both stocks have declined from earlier highs, but their underlying earnings trends remain positive, leaving the comparison focused on growth optionality versus stability.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings momentum, volatility, and market positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely view TJX as the more stable candidate, given its lower beta, consistent comparable-store growth, diversified revenue base, and shareholder returns. At the same time, BURL presents a stronger growth narrative through rapid store expansion and margin improvement, which may appeal more in a risk-on environment. On balance, the AI would probably favor TJX for its steadier trend and relative resilience, while acknowledging that BURL offers greater upside potential for investors comfortable with higher volatility. The ultimate selection depends on the specific strategy, timeframe, and risk tolerance being applied.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BURL is a Hold and TJX is a Buy.
BURL sees MACD Histogram crosses below signal line
BURL saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on October 21, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 41 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 28 of the 41 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 68%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on BURL as a result. In 63 of 94 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BURL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where BURL's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 19 of 26 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 11 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +1.62% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BURL advanced for three days, in 219 of 305 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
BURL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 192 of 250 cases where BURL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 77%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 70 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: BURL's P/B Ratio (7.491) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.849). P/E Ratio (21.019) is within average values for comparable stocks, (12.607). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.955) is also within normal values, averaging (0.517). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.067) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.212) is also within normal values, averaging (0.652).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. BURL’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 82 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BURL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 85, placing this stock worse than average.
TJX's Stochastic Oscillator is staying in oversold zone for 3 days
The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an uptrend is expected.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
TJX moved above its 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for TJX crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
Following a +1.92% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TJX advanced for three days, in 193 of 335 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 159 of 292 cases where TJX Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 54%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for TJX moved out of overbought territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 39 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 11 of the 39 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 28%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TJX as a result. In 35 of 72 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TJX turned negative on October 27, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 20 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 44%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TJX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 37%.
TJX broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 85, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. TJX’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 93 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: TJX's P/B Ratio (14.562) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.849). P/E Ratio (25.777) is within average values for comparable stocks, (12.607). TJX's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.543) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (0.517). Dividend Yield (0.014) settles around the average of (0.067) among similar stocks. TJX's P/S Ratio (2.210) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (0.652).
BURL | TJX | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 68 | 90 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 70 Overvalued | 93 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 23 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 25 | 18 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 77 | 56 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 82 | 73 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BURL's Valuation (70) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry is in the same range as TJX (93). This means that BURL’s stock grew similarly to TJX’s over the last 12 months.
TJX's Profit vs Risk Rating (23) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry is significantly better than the same rating for BURL (100). This means that TJX’s stock grew significantly faster than BURL’s over the last 12 months.
TJX's SMR Rating (18) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry is in the same range as BURL (25). This means that TJX’s stock grew similarly to BURL’s over the last 12 months.
TJX's Price Growth Rating (56) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry is in the same range as BURL (77). This means that TJX’s stock grew similarly to BURL’s over the last 12 months.
TJX's P/E Growth Rating (73) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry is in the same range as BURL (82). This means that TJX’s stock grew similarly to BURL’s over the last 12 months.
| BURL | TJX | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 28% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 49% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 44% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 39% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 54% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 26 days ago 72% | 16 days ago 58% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 67% | 7 days ago 37% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 43% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 54% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BURL’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while TJX’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- BURL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TJX’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BURL’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TJX’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BURL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- TJX’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
BURL (@Apparel/Footwear Retail) experienced а -1.03% price change this week, while TJX (@Apparel/Footwear Retail) price change was -1.88% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Apparel/Footwear Retail industry was +0.16%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.15%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4.36%.
Reported Earning Dates
BURL is expected to report earnings on Nov 24, 2026.
TJX is expected to report earnings on Nov 18, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Apparel/Footwear Retail (+0.16% weekly)Companies in the apparel and/or footwear retail industry sell clothing, accessories and footwear, for different age groups and genders. The industry’s product categories could range from basics, such as underwear, to luxury items. Some retailers source items from wholesalers or an apparel brand to sell in their stores; some others are licensed to make and market their own retail goods under particular brands. Several companies outsource production of clothing to developing/emerging economies where labor costs are relatively inexpensive. Apparel retail is often influenced by fashion trends, and many companies feel the need to adapt to what’s “in vogue” to retain customers and attract new ones. A major disruption in this industry has been the burgeoning trend in digital shopping – to compete with rapidly growing e-commerce, even traditional retail players are upping the ante on their online platforms. Much of the products’ performance in apparel/footwear retail is cyclical, i.e., economic boom times encourage consumer spending, while recessions induce thriftiness among people. Some large-cap U.S. apparel/footwear retail companies include TJX Companies Inc., Ross Stores, Inc., Lululemon Athletica Inc. and Burlington Stores, Inc.
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BURL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BURL has been loosely correlated with ROST. These tickers have moved in lockstep 49% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if BURL jumps, then ROST could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BURL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BURL | 100% | +0.71% | ||
| ROST - BURL | 49% Loosely correlated | +1.01% | ||
| TJX - BURL | 46% Loosely correlated | +0.49% | ||
| DBI - BURL | 41% Loosely correlated | -1.48% | ||
| SHOE - BURL | 34% Loosely correlated | +0.27% | ||
| BOOT - BURL | 34% Loosely correlated | +3.84% | ||
More | ||||
TJX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TJX has been loosely correlated with BURL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 46% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if TJX jumps, then BURL could also see price increases.