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CF vs UAN
Which Stock Would AI Choose? CF Industries Holdings (CF) vs. CVR Partners (UAN) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both CF Industries Holdings and UAN CVR Partners thrive in the nitrogen fertilizer market, buoyed by geopolitical supply disruptions and elevated prices in recent market activity.
- CF delivers superior year-to-date gains of approximately 59%, outpacing UAN's 25% rise, reflecting stronger relative momentum.
- UAN stands out with a high dividend yield of 9.5%, compared to CF's 1.6%, attracting income-oriented investors.
- CF features a larger market cap of $18.8 billion versus UAN's $1.35 billion, offering greater scale and diversification.
- Recent quarters highlight operational strength, with UAN reporting 103% ammonia utilization and CF poised for earnings amid favorable nitrogen dynamics.
- Low betas (0.42 for CF, 0.31 for UAN) signal reduced volatility relative to the broader market.
Introduction
This comparison pits CF Industries Holdings against CVR Partners (UAN), two key players in the nitrogen fertilizer sector. Both companies produce essential products like ammonia and urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), which are critical for global agriculture amid rising food demand and supply chain pressures. Traders and investors tracking commodity cycles, dividend yields, or relative performance in basic materials will find value here. Recent geopolitical tensions in fertilizer supply regions have spotlighted these stocks, prompting analysis of their pricing power, operational efficiency, and market positioning in the current environment.
CF Overview and Recent Performance
CF Industries Holdings is a leading global manufacturer of hydrogen and nitrogen products, including ammonia, granular urea, UAN solution, and ammonium nitrate, serving agricultural and industrial customers. Headquartered in Illinois, it benefits from low-cost U.S. natural gas feedstock. In recent market activity, the stock has traded around $123, with a 52-week range of $75 to $142. Year-to-date gains exceed 59%, driven by surging nitrogen prices from Middle East disruptions and strong demand. However, shares pulled back in recent weeks amid fading risk premiums and anticipation of Q1 earnings on May 6. Sentiment remains positive, supported by analyst upgrades and a P/E ratio (price-to-earnings ratio) of 13.7, reflecting robust cash flows and dividend consistency.
UAN Overview and Recent Performance
CVR Partners (UAN), based in Texas, focuses on nitrogen fertilizers, primarily ammonia and UAN, for U.S. agricultural markets. As a master limited partnership (MLP), it emphasizes distributions to unitholders. The stock hovers near $128, within a 52-week range of $79 to $140. Year-to-date performance stands at 25%, fueled by elevated fertilizer prices and operational uptime. Q1 2026 results showcased net income of $50 million, EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) of $78 million, and 103% ammonia utilization, boosting confidence. Recent weeks saw modest declines, but high realized prices (up 24-34% year-over-year) and a 9.5% yield sustain investor interest despite commodity volatility.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
CF operates as a fully integrated producer with global reach and product diversity, contrasting UAN’s U.S.-centric MLP structure prioritizing nitrogen output and distributions. Growth drivers align on agricultural demand and natural gas costs, but CF leverages scale for cost advantages. Recent momentum favors CF’s YTD surge, though UAN shows resilient Q1 execution. Risks include fertilizer price swings and geopolitics, amplified for smaller UAN. Both share sector exposure to basic materials, with positive sentiment from supply tightness, but CF’s analyst coverage signals broader appeal versus UAN’s yield trade-off.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward CF Industries Holdings, citing its superior year-to-date momentum, larger scale, low-cost production edge, and constructive analyst targets amid nitrogen market tailwinds. While UAN impresses with high yields and recent operational strength, CF exhibits greater trend consistency and relative positioning for potential upside in the prevailing environment.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CF is a Hold and UAN is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CF’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileUAN’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- CF’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- UAN’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CF’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UAN’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CF’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- UAN’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
CF (@Chemicals: Agricultural) experienced а -3.24% price change this week, while UAN (@Chemicals: Agricultural) price change was -1.23% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Chemicals: Agricultural industry was -2.25%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.84%, and the average quarterly price growth was -9.46%.
Reported Earning Dates
CF is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
UAN is expected to report earnings on Aug 03, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Chemicals: Agricultural (-2.25% weekly)The agricultural chemicals sector includes companies that produce chemical products for the agricultural industry applications like crop protection, animal health, biotechnology and pharmaceutical-related products. Some of the largest agricultural chemicals producers include Nutrien Ltd., Corteva Inc., and FMC Corporation.
| CF | UAN | CF / UAN | |
| Capitalization | 15.7B | 1.16B | 1,350% |
| EBITDA | 3.7B | 236M | 1,567% |
| Gain YTD | 33.352 | 11.253 | 296% |
| P/E Ratio | 9.33 | 9.57 | 97% |
| Revenue | 7.41B | 643M | 1,152% |
| Total Cash | 2.04B | 128M | 1,595% |
| Total Debt | 3.62B | 575M | 630% |
CF | UAN | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 54 | 53 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 33 Fair valued | 2 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 46 | 26 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 28 | 24 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 61 | 55 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 77 | 76 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
UAN's Valuation (2) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry is in the same range as CF (33). This means that UAN’s stock grew similarly to CF’s over the last 12 months.
UAN's Profit vs Risk Rating (26) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry is in the same range as CF (46). This means that UAN’s stock grew similarly to CF’s over the last 12 months.
UAN's SMR Rating (24) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry is in the same range as CF (28). This means that UAN’s stock grew similarly to CF’s over the last 12 months.
UAN's Price Growth Rating (55) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry is in the same range as CF (61). This means that UAN’s stock grew similarly to CF’s over the last 12 months.
UAN's P/E Growth Rating (76) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry is in the same range as CF (77). This means that UAN’s stock grew similarly to CF’s over the last 12 months.
| CF | UAN | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 60% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 6 days ago 66% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 61% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 58% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 20 days ago 72% | 6 days ago 74% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 68% | 8 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 85% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 58% |
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UAN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UAN has been loosely correlated with CF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 52% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if UAN jumps, then CF could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To UAN | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAN | 100% | -1.25% | ||
| CF - UAN | 52% Loosely correlated | +0.65% | ||
| IPI - UAN | 39% Loosely correlated | -0.32% | ||
| NTR - UAN | 31% Poorly correlated | -0.97% | ||
| RKDA - UAN | 23% Poorly correlated | -2.83% | ||
| CTVA - UAN | 23% Poorly correlated | +0.34% | ||
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