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CF vs IPI
Which Stock Would AI Choose? CF Industries Holdings (CF) vs. Intrepid Potash (IPI) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CF boasts a significantly larger market capitalization of approximately $18.85 billion compared to IPI's $534 million, reflecting greater scale and stability.
- Year-to-date, CF has delivered stronger performance at around 59%, outpacing IPI's 43% gain amid fertilizer sector tailwinds.
- CF's trailing P/E (price-to-earnings ratio) of 13.68 and ROE (return on equity) of 23.4% indicate superior profitability versus IPI's P/E of 46.73 and ROE of 2.32%.
- Both stocks benefit from elevated fertilizer prices, but CF shows lower volatility with a beta of 0.42 compared to IPI's 1.40.
- Analyst consensus leans toward holding CF with an average price target near $121, while IPI faces a "strong sell" rating and target of $25.
Introduction
CF Industries Holdings (CF) and Intrepid Potash (IPI) operate in the fertilizer sector, capitalizing on global demand for agricultural nutrients amid supply chain dynamics and commodity price surges. This stock comparison analyzes their business models, recent market positioning, and relative performance, aiding traders seeking momentum plays and investors focused on basic materials exposure. With fertilizer stocks showing resilience in recent market activity, understanding contrasts in scale, profitability, and risk profiles helps evaluate opportunities in this cyclical industry.
CF Overview and Recent Performance
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is a leading global manufacturer of hydrogen and nitrogen products, primarily ammonia and urea, used in fertilizers and industrial applications. In recent weeks, CF shares have traded around $123, reflecting robust year-to-date gains of nearly 59% driven by strong full-year 2025 results, including net earnings of $1.46 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $2.89 billion. Sentiment has been bolstered by elevated nitrogen prices and operational efficiency, with a low beta of 0.42 signaling reduced volatility. Key metrics like a 20.5% profit margin and 3.37 current ratio underscore financial health, though shares remain below 52-week highs amid broader sector fluctuations.
IPI Overview and Recent Performance
Intrepid Potash, Inc. focuses on potash production, a key potassium fertilizer, with operations centered in North America. Recently, IPI shares have hovered near $40, posting year-to-date returns of about 43% fueled by improved potash pricing and a return to profitability in recent quarters, with Q3 net income of $3.7 million. Higher volumes and unit economics have supported momentum, yet the stock's higher beta of 1.40 exposes it to greater market swings. A solid 4.38 current ratio highlights liquidity, but modest profitability margins around 4.7% reflect challenges in a competitive landscape.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both CF and IPI thrive on fertilizer demand but differ in focus: CF emphasizes nitrogen products with global reach, while IPI specializes in potash from U.S. mines. Growth drivers include commodity price strength, though CF's scale supports superior revenue ($7.08 billion in 2025) versus IPI's smaller base. Recent momentum favors CF with steadier gains and lower risk via balanced debt/equity (46.8%) and high ROE, contrasting IPI's volatility and elevated P/E. Sector exposure ties them to agriculture cycles, but CF benefits from diversified industrial uses, while IPI faces potash-specific supply risks. Market sentiment tilts toward CF's stability over IPI's speculative upside.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently favors CF over IPI due to its trend consistency, higher profitability margins, lower volatility, and stronger relative positioning in the fertilizer sector. Observable factors like robust earnings growth and attractive valuation metrics suggest greater probability of sustained outperformance in prevailing market conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CF is a Hold and IPI is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CF’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileIPI’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- CF’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- IPI’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CF’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while IPI’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CF’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- IPI’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
CF (@Chemicals: Agricultural) experienced а -3.53% price change this week, while IPI (@Chemicals: Agricultural) price change was +3.40% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Chemicals: Agricultural industry was +0.03%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.51%, and the average quarterly price growth was -7.30%.
Reported Earning Dates
CF is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
IPI is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Chemicals: Agricultural (+0.03% weekly)The agricultural chemicals sector includes companies that produce chemical products for the agricultural industry applications like crop protection, animal health, biotechnology and pharmaceutical-related products. Some of the largest agricultural chemicals producers include Nutrien Ltd., Corteva Inc., and FMC Corporation.
| CF | IPI | CF / IPI | |
| Capitalization | 16.8B | 486M | 3,457% |
| EBITDA | 3.7B | 55.4M | 6,675% |
| Gain YTD | 42.893 | 30.364 | 141% |
| P/E Ratio | 9.86 | 32.57 | 30% |
| Revenue | 7.41B | 302M | 2,453% |
| Total Cash | 2.04B | 99.3M | 2,056% |
| Total Debt | 3.62B | 3.68M | 98,370% |
CF | IPI | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 56 | 52 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 36 Fair valued | 68 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 44 | 92 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 28 | 90 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 55 | 62 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 73 | 86 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 4 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CF's Valuation (36) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry is in the same range as IPI (68) in the Other Metals Or Minerals industry. This means that CF’s stock grew similarly to IPI’s over the last 12 months.
CF's Profit vs Risk Rating (44) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry is somewhat better than the same rating for IPI (92) in the Other Metals Or Minerals industry. This means that CF’s stock grew somewhat faster than IPI’s over the last 12 months.
CF's SMR Rating (28) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry is somewhat better than the same rating for IPI (90) in the Other Metals Or Minerals industry. This means that CF’s stock grew somewhat faster than IPI’s over the last 12 months.
CF's Price Growth Rating (55) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry is in the same range as IPI (62) in the Other Metals Or Minerals industry. This means that CF’s stock grew similarly to IPI’s over the last 12 months.
CF's P/E Growth Rating (73) in the Chemicals Agricultural industry is in the same range as IPI (86) in the Other Metals Or Minerals industry. This means that CF’s stock grew similarly to IPI’s over the last 12 months.
| CF | IPI | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 78% | 3 days ago 82% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 83% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 74% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 79% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 78% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 72% | 3 days ago 77% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 68% | 5 days ago 75% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 77% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 77% |
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IPI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, IPI has been closely correlated with CF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 69% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if IPI jumps, then CF could also see price increases.