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CFG vs KEY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Citizens Financial Group (CFG) vs. KeyCorp (KEY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both CFG and KEY delivered Q1 2026 earnings beats in recent weeks, highlighting resilience in regional banking amid shifting interest rates.
- CFG boasts stronger year-to-date gains of about 13% compared to KEY's 9%, reflecting superior recent momentum.
- KEY offers a higher dividend yield near 3.7%, appealing to income-focused investors, versus CFG's 2.8%.
- CFG holds a larger market capitalization of approximately $28 billion, providing greater scale than KEY's $24 billion.
- Recent sector tailwinds, including net interest income (NII, revenue from loans minus deposit costs) growth, support both stocks' relative performance.
Introduction
Citizens Financial Group (CFG) and KeyCorp (KEY) are prominent regional banks navigating a dynamic market environment marked by interest rate adjustments and economic uncertainty. This comparison analyzes their business models, recent performance, and key metrics to aid traders seeking short-term opportunities and investors building diversified financial sector portfolios. Both operate in the competitive U.S. banking landscape, offering insights into regional bank resilience, dividend reliability, and growth potential amid broader sector recovery. Understanding their contrasts helps evaluate relative positioning in current market conditions.
CFG Overview and Recent Performance
Citizens Financial Group, Inc. (CFG) is a diversified bank holding company providing retail and commercial banking services across the U.S., with segments in consumer banking (deposits, mortgages, credit cards) and commercial banking (lending, treasury management). In recent market activity, CFG stock has demonstrated robust momentum, trading near $66 with year-to-date gains around 13% and a 94% surge over the past year. Q1 2026 earnings exceeded expectations, with EPS (earnings per share) of $1.13 topping consensus by 3.8% and revenue up 12% year-over-year, fueled by strong NII and fee income growth from strategic initiatives like private banking expansion. Sentiment has been buoyed by undervaluation signals, though post-earnings volatility reflects broader regional bank pressures from inflation data.
KEY Overview and Recent Performance
KeyCorp (KEY) operates through consumer and commercial bank segments, delivering deposits, lending, wealth management, and capital markets services nationwide. Recent weeks have seen KEY shares hover around $22, with year-to-date returns of approximately 9% amid solid Q1 2026 results. The bank reported revenue of $1.95 billion, up 33% year-over-year, and EPS of $0.44, surpassing forecasts through commercial lending strength and cost controls. Performance reflects over 13% gains in the past month, outpacing the S&P 500, though credit quality concerns temper enthusiasm. Higher dividend yield supports income stability in fluctuating markets.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both CFG and KEY share regional banking models emphasizing retail deposits, commercial loans, and fee-based services, with heavy exposure to interest rate-sensitive NII. CFG edges in scale ($28B market cap vs. $24B) and growth drivers like private banking, boasting a P/E ratio (price-to-earnings, stock price divided by EPS) of 15.6 versus KEY's 13.6. Recent momentum favors CFG with superior YTD returns, while KEY counters with a richer 3.7% dividend yield. Risk factors include credit quality and economic slowdowns, but CFG shows better ROTCE (return on tangible common equity, profitability measure). Market sentiment leans positive for both amid regional bank recovery, though trade-offs hinge on growth versus income priorities.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI models currently lean toward CFG due to its consistent trend strength, larger scale, and recent earnings catalysts positioning it favorably in the regional banking sector. With higher YTD performance and undervaluation metrics, CFG exhibits greater stability and upside potential compared to KEY, though KEY's yield offers appeal in income scenarios. This probabilistic edge reflects observable momentum rather than guarantees.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CFG is a Hold and KEY is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CFG’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileKEY’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- CFG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- KEY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CFG’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KEY’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CFG’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- KEY’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CFG (@Regional Banks) experienced а -4.73% price change this week, while KEY (@Regional Banks) price change was -2.81% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was -1.29%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.53%, and the average quarterly price growth was +16.13%.
Reported Earning Dates
CFG is expected to report earnings on Jul 16, 2026.
KEY is expected to report earnings on Jul 21, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (-1.29% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
| CFG | KEY | CFG / KEY | |
| Capitalization | 25.9B | 22.9B | 113% |
| EBITDA | N/A | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | 6.237 | 3.143 | 198% |
| P/E Ratio | 14.50 | 12.93 | 112% |
| Revenue | 8.48B | 7.47B | 114% |
| Total Cash | 12.7B | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 12.3B | 17B | 72% |
CFG | KEY | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 69 | 70 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 79 Overvalued | 77 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 76 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 7 | 8 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 40 | 88 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KEY's Valuation (77) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as CFG (79) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that KEY’s stock grew similarly to CFG’s over the last 12 months.
CFG's Profit vs Risk Rating (50) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (76) in the Major Banks industry. This means that CFG’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
CFG's SMR Rating (7) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (8) in the Major Banks industry. This means that CFG’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
CFG's Price Growth Rating (50) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (50) in the Major Banks industry. This means that CFG’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
CFG's P/E Growth Rating (40) in the Regional Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KEY (88) in the Major Banks industry. This means that CFG’s stock grew somewhat faster than KEY’s over the last 12 months.
| CFG | KEY | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 71% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 56% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 68% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 66% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 64% | 10 days ago 62% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 61% | 3 days ago 70% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 63% |
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|---|---|---|---|
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| Innovator Growth-100 Pwr Buffr ETF - Dec | |||
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