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CFG vs KEY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Citizens Financial Group (CFG) vs. KeyCorp (KEY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both CFG and KEY are major U.S. regional banks that have posted double-digit earnings growth in recent quarters, driven by expanding net interest income (NII).
- Citizens Financial has delivered stronger relative price momentum, while KeyCorp carries a higher common equity tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio and a more aggressive buyback plan.
- KeyCorp is more leveraged to investment banking fees, whereas Citizens Financial leans on its expanding Private Bank and wealth franchise.
- Analyst consensus on both names is a "Buy," with average price targets implying meaningful upside from recent levels.
- The two stocks represent contrasting risk-and-reward profiles in the regional banking sector: scale and diversification versus a fee-oriented, capital-markets tilt.
Introduction
Investors weighing U.S. regional banks frequently compare CFG and KEY, two institutions with distinct footprints and growth engines. Citizens Financial Group operates a broad Northeast and national franchise, while KeyCorp anchors its business in the Midwest and Pacific Northwest. This stock comparison is relevant to traders and investors seeking to understand how relative performance, market positioning, and balance-sheet strength differ between two similarly sized regional lenders. By examining recent earnings, sentiment shifts, and structural catalysts, readers can better assess which name aligns with their objectives in the current interest-rate and credit environment.
CFG Overview and Recent Performance
Citizens Financial Group, headquartered in Providence, Rhode Island, is one of the largest U.S. regional banks, with a diversified business spanning consumer banking, commercial banking, wealth management, and a growing Private Bank launched in 2023. In recent weeks, CFG has drawn analyst attention for improving profitability and a strengthening balance sheet. Its most recent quarterly results showed earnings per share (EPS) rising 47% year over year, supported by a 12% increase in net interest income (NII, the income banks earn from lending after funding costs) and an 11% gain in non-interest income.
Sentiment has also been reinforced by a ratings upgrade, with Fitch raising the bank's long-term issuer default rating to "A-" from "BBB+," citing improved earnings power and a strong deposit franchise. The bank's net interest margin (NIM) has expanded, and management has signaled that full-year NII growth could exceed its initial target. These factors have contributed to firm relative performance, with the stock recording strong gains over the trailing twelve months.
KEY Overview and Recent Performance
KeyCorp, based in Cleveland, Ohio, is a major regional bank with a substantial presence in commercial and investment banking alongside its traditional lending and wealth operations. Recent market activity has highlighted KEY's momentum in fee-based businesses, particularly investment banking and debt placement, which posted record quarterly fees and double-digit year-over-year growth. Its latest quarterly EPS rose 33% year over year, with revenue up roughly 10%.
KeyCorp's net interest margin has also been climbing, and management has raised its full-year NII and loan growth guidance, supported by strong commercial loan demand. The company has repurchased a meaningful amount of common stock and communicated an expanded buyback program for the year. While the stock's year-to-date gain has been more modest than some peers, analysts have generally maintained constructive ratings, and the company's CET1 ratio of 11.4% reflects a solid capital position relative to the sector.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two banks diverge most clearly in business mix and capital deployment. KEY generates a meaningful share of its revenue from investment banking and capital-markets activities, which can amplify results during active deal markets but introduce fee volatility. CFG, by contrast, has emphasized its Private Bank and wealth platform as steadier, relationship-driven growth engines, alongside a granular deposit base that funds a large loan book.
On capital and shareholder returns, KeyCorp has been the more aggressive buyer of its own stock, planning at least $1.3 billion in repurchases this year, while Citizens Financial has combined buybacks with a recently raised dividend. KeyCorp also holds a higher CET1 ratio, providing a thicker capital cushion. In terms of recent momentum, Citizens Financial has posted the stronger trailing-twelve-month share performance, though both carry analyst "Buy" consensus ratings. Risk profiles also differ: KeyCorp's investment banking exposure ties results to market conditions and M&A (mergers and acquisitions) activity, while Citizens Financial's larger loan portfolio keeps credit quality a central watch item.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward CFG in the current environment. Citizens Financial combines strong relative price momentum, a ratings upgrade, expanding margins, and a steadier, more diversified revenue mix, all of which tend to align with the characteristics AI models favor for trend continuation. KeyCorp's higher capital ratio and robust fee momentum are compelling, but its greater sensitivity to investment banking activity and its more modest recent share performance introduce additional variability. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive, and both stocks retain credible, analyst-supported cases depending on an investor's time horizon and risk tolerance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CFG is a StrongBuy and KEY is a Hold.
CFG | KEY | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 70 | 77 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 48 Fair valued | 25 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 43 | 80 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 6 | 7 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 56 | 59 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 55 | 88 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 21 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KEY's Valuation (25) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as CFG (48) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that KEY’s stock grew similarly to CFG’s over the last 12 months.
CFG's Profit vs Risk Rating (43) in the Regional Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KEY (80) in the Major Banks industry. This means that CFG’s stock grew somewhat faster than KEY’s over the last 12 months.
CFG's SMR Rating (6) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (7) in the Major Banks industry. This means that CFG’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
CFG's Price Growth Rating (56) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (59) in the Major Banks industry. This means that CFG’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
CFG's P/E Growth Rating (55) in the Regional Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KEY (88) in the Major Banks industry. This means that CFG’s stock grew somewhat faster than KEY’s over the last 12 months.
| CFG | KEY | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 82% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 84% | 1 day ago 73% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 64% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 68% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 69% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 67% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 18 days ago 65% | 8 days ago 61% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 60% | 6 days ago 70% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 74% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 63% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CFG’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while KEY’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CFG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- KEY’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CFG’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KEY’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CFG’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- KEY’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
CFG (@Regional Banks) experienced а -0.64% price change this week, while KEY (@Regional Banks) price change was -0.45% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was -1.03%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.98%, and the average quarterly price growth was +5.93%.
Reported Earning Dates
CFG is expected to report earnings on Oct 16, 2026.
KEY is expected to report earnings on Oct 20, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (-1.03% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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CFG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CFG has been closely correlated with KEY. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CFG jumps, then KEY could also see price increases.