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CFG vs KEY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Citizens Financial Group (CFG) vs. KeyCorp (KEY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Citizens Financial Group (CFG) has delivered stronger year-to-date returns of approximately 23.5% compared to KeyCorp’s (KEY) roughly 16% through mid-July 2026.
- Both companies operate as regional banks with similar exposure to interest rate environments and commercial lending, yet CFG has shown more consistent price momentum in recent market activity.
- CFG reported solid Q4 2025 earnings with net income up 32% year-over-year, supported by positive operating leverage and deposit growth.
- KEY maintains a comparable business model focused on commercial banking and wealth management, with steady but comparatively lower recent performance.
- Market sentiment favors CFG due to stronger relative returns and favorable positioning within the regional banking sector over the past several months.
- Both stocks exhibit high correlation in performance, reflecting shared sector dynamics and macroeconomic sensitivities.
Introduction
Regional banks Citizens Financial Group (CFG) and KeyCorp (KEY) offer investors exposure to the U.S. banking sector through diversified commercial lending, deposit gathering, and wealth management services. This comparison examines their relative performance, business models, and recent market positioning to assist traders and investors evaluating opportunities in financial stocks. The analysis focuses on observable trends in returns, earnings momentum, and sector influences, providing a factual basis for understanding how these two peers have navigated the current interest rate and economic environment.
CFG Overview and Recent Performance
Citizens Financial Group, Inc. is a diversified financial services company providing commercial banking, consumer banking, and wealth management across the United States. With total assets of approximately $227.9 billion as of April 2026, CFG maintains a network of around 1,000 branches. In recent weeks, the stock has exhibited strong upward momentum, contributing to year-to-date gains near 23.5%. Positive sentiment has been supported by earlier earnings reports showing net income growth and efficiency improvements. Broader market activity in the regional banking space has also influenced performance, with CFG demonstrating resilience amid fluctuating interest rates and economic indicators.
KEY Overview and Recent Performance
KeyCorp operates as a bank holding company offering commercial and retail banking, investment management, and capital markets services primarily in the Midwest and Northeast regions. The company manages a substantial balance sheet focused on relationship-driven lending and deposit activities. In recent market activity, KEY has recorded year-to-date returns around 16%, reflecting solid but more moderate gains compared to peers. Sentiment has been shaped by steady operational performance and sector-wide factors, including deposit stability and lending trends. The stock’s movement aligns with broader regional bank dynamics over the past several months.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
CFG and KEY share core business models centered on regional commercial banking and deposit franchises, exposing both to similar interest rate and credit risks. Growth drivers include net interest income expansion and fee-based services, though CFG has posted comparatively stronger recent earnings momentum. In terms of recent performance, CFG has outperformed with higher year-to-date and trailing twelve-month returns, while KEY offers a more moderate trajectory. Risk factors such as non-performing loans and capital ratios remain sector-typical for both. Market sentiment has tilted toward CFG due to relative strength, though both stocks maintain high correlation reflecting overlapping regional banking exposure. Trade-offs center on CFG’s momentum edge versus KEY’s potentially steadier profile in certain environments.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including stronger recent price momentum, consistent earnings positioning, and favorable relative performance within the regional banking sector, Tickeron’s AI would assign a higher probabilistic preference to CFG over KEY in the current environment. This assessment reflects trend consistency and sector-relative metrics rather than absolute outcomes.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CFG is a Hold and KEY is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CFG’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileKEY’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CFG’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- KEY’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CFG’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KEY’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CFG’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- KEY’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
CFG (@Regional Banks) experienced а -3.49% price change this week, while KEY (@Regional Banks) price change was -5.29% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was -0.20%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.82%, and the average quarterly price growth was +14.47%.
Reported Earning Dates
CFG is expected to report earnings on Oct 16, 2026.
KEY is expected to report earnings on Oct 20, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (-0.20% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
| CFG | KEY | CFG / KEY | |
| Capitalization | 30.3B | 24.4B | 124% |
| EBITDA | N/A | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | 24.678 | 12.269 | 201% |
| P/E Ratio | 15.64 | 13.29 | 118% |
| Revenue | 8.48B | 7.47B | 114% |
| Total Cash | 12.7B | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 12.3B | 17B | 72% |
CFG | KEY | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 25 | 72 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 57 Fair valued | 35 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 39 | 73 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 9 | 10 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 15 | 32 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 44 | 86 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KEY's Valuation (35) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as CFG (57) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that KEY’s stock grew similarly to CFG’s over the last 12 months.
CFG's Profit vs Risk Rating (39) in the Regional Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KEY (73) in the Major Banks industry. This means that CFG’s stock grew somewhat faster than KEY’s over the last 12 months.
CFG's SMR Rating (9) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (10) in the Major Banks industry. This means that CFG’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
CFG's Price Growth Rating (15) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (32) in the Major Banks industry. This means that CFG’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
CFG's P/E Growth Rating (44) in the Regional Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KEY (86) in the Major Banks industry. This means that CFG’s stock grew somewhat faster than KEY’s over the last 12 months.
| CFG | KEY | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 67% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 64% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 66% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 65% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 66% | 9 days ago 64% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 59% | 4 days ago 68% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 59% |
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