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KEY vs TFC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? KeyCorp (KEY) vs. Truist Financial (TFC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- KEY delivered faster revenue and net interest income (NII) growth in its latest quarter, while TFC posted steadier, larger-scale results with heavier capital returns.
- KEY is a smaller regional bank undergoing a balance-sheet and margin recovery, whereas TFC is a larger super-regional with a more diversified fee base.
- Both banks improved profitability year over year, but KEY shows stronger margin expansion while TFC carries a lower net interest margin (NIM) but more stable funding.
- Credit quality is manageable at both, though TFC recorded a modest rise in net charge-offs and non-performing assets (NPAs).
- TFC announced up to $10 billion in new share-repurchase authorization, a larger capital-return catalyst than KEY's $200 million quarterly buyback.
Introduction
KeyCorp (KEY) and Truist Financial (TFC) are two prominent U.S. regional banks often screened side by side by investors seeking exposure to the financial sector. Although both operate in commercial lending, consumer banking, and wealth management, they differ sharply in scale, geographic footprint, and near-term earnings drivers. This stock comparison is most relevant for investors and traders evaluating regional-bank relative performance, interest-rate sensitivity, and capital-return strategies. By examining recent market positioning, growth momentum, and risk factors, readers can better assess how these two names stack up in the current environment.
KEY Overview and Recent Performance
KeyCorp is the Cleveland-based holding company for KeyBank, serving retail, commercial, and corporate clients across roughly 15 states. In its most recent quarterly report, KEY posted total taxable-equivalent revenue of about $2.0 billion, up roughly 12.5% year over year, driven by a 15.3% jump in net interest income (NII, the difference between interest earned on loans and interest paid on deposits). Its net interest margin (NIM, a measure of lending profitability) expanded about 41 basis points to 2.82%, reflecting lower deposit costs and the repositioning of its securities portfolio. The company also reported record assets under management (AUM) of $70 billion and strong investment-banking fees. In recent weeks, sentiment has been supported by improving credit metrics, including lower net charge-offs, though a sequential increase in loan-loss provisions drew some investor caution. The stock has modestly outperformed the broader market since its latest earnings release.
TFC Overview and Recent Performance
Truist Financial is a Charlotte-based super-regional bank formed from the merger of BB&T and SunTrust, with a footprint concentrated in the Southeastern and Mid-Atlantic United States. In its latest quarter, TFC reported revenue of $5.25 billion, up 3.7% year over year, and adjusted earnings of $1.12 per share. Net interest income rose about 3% to $3.75 billion, while its net interest margin held steady at 3.07%. Fee income grew on higher card, treasury, wealth, and mortgage-banking fees, partially offsetting a decline in full-year investment-banking and trading income. Sentiment in recent weeks has been shaped by a renewed capital-return focus: Truist announced a new authorization for up to $10 billion in share repurchases and returned $5.2 billion to shareholders in 2025. However, a legal-settlement charge, higher expenses, and a linked-quarter rise in net charge-offs have tempered enthusiasm.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
On a fundamental level, the two banks occupy different tiers of the regional-banking landscape. TFC is meaningfully larger, with a market capitalization of roughly $51 billion and average loans and leases exceeding $300 billion, compared with a market cap near $23 billion for KEY. This scale gives Truist a more diversified revenue mix, but it also mutes percentage growth rates relative to its smaller peer.
Growth drivers diverge as well. KeyCorp is in the early stages of an organic-growth push, investing in commercial and industrial (C&I) lending, investment banking, and wealth management, which has produced rapid NII and margin gains. Truist, by contrast, is optimizing its loan mix and leaning into capital return, targeting a 15% return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) by 2027. Risk profiles differ subtly: KEY has shown improving asset quality, while TFC reported a modest rise in NPAs and net charge-offs tied largely to consumer-seasonality. On capital, KeyCorp's Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 11.7% is slightly higher than Truist's 10.8%, but Truist's larger buyback program signals greater near-term capital-return aggressiveness.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely tilt toward KEY in the near term, given its stronger momentum in net interest income, more pronounced margin expansion, and improving credit trajectory. That said, TFC's larger scale, steadier funding profile, and substantial buyback authorization provide a compelling stability case that may appeal to a different trading style. The relative edge is probabilistic rather than definitive, and the preferred candidate may shift as market conditions, rate expectations, and credit data evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is KEY is a Hold and TFC is a Hold.
KEY | TFC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 77 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 25 Undervalued | 19 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 81 | 91 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 7 | 5 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 59 | 59 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 88 | 54 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 37 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TFC's Valuation (19) in the null industry is in the same range as KEY (25) in the Major Banks industry. This means that TFC’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
KEY's Profit vs Risk Rating (81) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as TFC (91) in the null industry. This means that KEY’s stock grew similarly to TFC’s over the last 12 months.
TFC's SMR Rating (5) in the null industry is in the same range as KEY (7) in the Major Banks industry. This means that TFC’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
TFC's Price Growth Rating (59) in the null industry is in the same range as KEY (59) in the Major Banks industry. This means that TFC’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
TFC's P/E Growth Rating (54) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KEY (88) in the Major Banks industry. This means that TFC’s stock grew somewhat faster than KEY’s over the last 12 months.
| KEY | TFC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 71% | 1 day ago 75% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 77% | 1 day ago 79% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 71% | 1 day ago 57% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 70% | 1 day ago 72% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 1 day ago 59% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 67% | 1 day ago 56% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 61% | 18 days ago 63% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 70% | 6 days ago 63% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 1 day ago 65% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | 1 day ago 56% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
KEY’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while TFC’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- KEY’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TFC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
KEY’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TFC’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- KEY’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- TFC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
KEY (@Regional Banks) experienced а -0.45% price change this week, while TFC (@Regional Banks) price change was +0.67% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was -1.03%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.98%, and the average quarterly price growth was +5.93%.
Reported Earning Dates
KEY is expected to report earnings on Oct 20, 2026.
TFC is expected to report earnings on Oct 16, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (-1.03% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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