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KEY vs TFC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? KeyCorp (KEY) vs. Truist Financial Corporation (TFC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- KeyCorp (KEY) has delivered stronger year-to-date performance with approximately 16.4% returns compared to Truist Financial Corporation (TFC)’s roughly 8.9% through mid-July 2026.
- Both regional banks reported solid recent quarterly results, with TFC posting a 37% year-over-year net income increase in Q2 2026 while KEY prepares for its Q2 earnings release.
- Market sentiment for both stocks reflects sector-wide pressures including net interest margin compression amid evolving interest rate environments.
- KEY offers higher dividend yield proximity in recent trading while TFC demonstrates scale advantages with a larger market capitalization exceeding $64 billion.
- Relative momentum favors KEY in recent market activity, though TFC benefits from earnings beats and ongoing share repurchase programs.
- AI-driven analysis highlights differing risk profiles tied to geographic exposure and balance sheet composition within the regional banking sector.
Introduction
This comparison examines KeyCorp (KEY) and Truist Financial Corporation (TFC), two prominent regional bank holding companies, to provide traders and investors with an objective view of their relative positioning in the current market environment. The analysis focuses on recent performance metrics, business fundamentals, and sector dynamics that influence both equities. Institutional and retail market participants seeking balanced insights into financial services stocks within the broader banking industry may find this evaluation useful for portfolio construction and risk assessment purposes.
KEY Overview and Recent Performance
KeyCorp (KEY) operates as a regional bank holding company providing consumer, commercial, and wealth management services primarily across the Midwest and Northeast United States. In recent market activity, the stock has traded near $23.55, reflecting a year-to-date gain of approximately 16.4% that outpaced the S&P 500’s 8.94% return through mid-July 2026. Performance has been supported by expectations surrounding the upcoming Q2 2026 earnings report scheduled for July 21, with analysts projecting earnings per share near $0.42. Sentiment has remained constructive amid broader financial sector stability, though daily fluctuations around the $23–$24 range illustrate typical volatility associated with interest rate sensitivity and loan growth indicators.
TFC Overview and Recent Performance
Truist Financial Corporation (TFC) is a major regional bank formed through the merger of BB&T and SunTrust, offering consumer, commercial, and wealth management services across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions. The stock closed at $52.50 on July 17, 2026, delivering a year-to-date return of about 8.9% that closely tracked the S&P 500 benchmark. Recent market activity benefited from a strong Q2 2026 earnings beat, with net income rising 37% year-over-year and earnings per share exceeding estimates. Factors influencing performance include robust share buybacks and a shift toward higher-quality commercial loans, tempered by concerns over narrowing net interest margins and an upcoming chief executive transition effective September 1.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
KeyCorp (KEY) and Truist Financial Corporation (TFC) share core exposure to the regional banking sector yet differ in scale and geographic focus. TFC commands a significantly larger market capitalization exceeding $64 billion compared to KEY’s more modest valuation, providing greater resources for investment banking activities that recently surged 72% in certain segments. Growth drivers for both include commercial lending and deposit management, though TFC’s ongoing transition toward higher-quality loans contrasts with KEY’s emphasis on Midwest commercial relationships. Recent momentum has favored KEY’s stronger year-to-date appreciation, while TFC’s earnings outperformance and capital return programs offer offsetting stability. Risk factors center on net interest margin pressures affecting both institutions, with TFC additionally navigating leadership changes. Market sentiment remains neutral to positive for the sector overall, reflecting balanced positioning amid economic data releases.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency and relative positioning, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a probabilistic edge to KeyCorp (KEY) due to its stronger recent price momentum and alignment with broader market recovery patterns. TFC demonstrates resilience through earnings delivery and capital management initiatives, yet faces additional variables around leadership transition that introduce incremental uncertainty. The assessment remains conditional on sustained sector stability and continued monitoring of interest rate developments.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is KEY is a Hold and TFC is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
KEY’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileTFC’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- KEY’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TFC’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
KEY’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TFC’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- KEY’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TFC’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
KEY (@Regional Banks) experienced а -5.29% price change this week, while TFC (@Regional Banks) price change was -3.85% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was -0.91%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.08%, and the average quarterly price growth was +13.62%.
Reported Earning Dates
KEY is expected to report earnings on Oct 20, 2026.
TFC is expected to report earnings on Oct 16, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (-0.91% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
| KEY | TFC | KEY / TFC | |
| Capitalization | 24.4B | 62.5B | 39% |
| EBITDA | N/A | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | 12.269 | 6.204 | 198% |
| P/E Ratio | 13.29 | 11.77 | 113% |
| Revenue | 7.47B | 20.6B | 36% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 4.97B | - |
| Total Debt | 17B | 69.1B | 25% |
KEY | TFC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 72 | 37 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 35 Fair valued | 21 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 73 | 83 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 10 | 7 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 32 | 33 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 86 | 53 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TFC's Valuation (21) in the null industry is in the same range as KEY (35) in the Major Banks industry. This means that TFC’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
KEY's Profit vs Risk Rating (73) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as TFC (83) in the null industry. This means that KEY’s stock grew similarly to TFC’s over the last 12 months.
TFC's SMR Rating (7) in the null industry is in the same range as KEY (10) in the Major Banks industry. This means that TFC’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
KEY's Price Growth Rating (32) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as TFC (33) in the null industry. This means that KEY’s stock grew similarly to TFC’s over the last 12 months.
TFC's P/E Growth Rating (53) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KEY (86) in the Major Banks industry. This means that TFC’s stock grew somewhat faster than KEY’s over the last 12 months.
| KEY | TFC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 67% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 70% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 51% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 61% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 56% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 64% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 68% | 5 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 71% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 48% |
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TFC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TFC has been closely correlated with KEY. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TFC jumps, then KEY could also see price increases.