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KEY vs TFC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? KeyCorp (KEY) vs. Truist Financial (TFC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both KEY and TFC reported strong Q1 2026 earnings beats, with KEY EPS rising 33% year-over-year to $0.44 and TFC up 25% to $1.09.
- KEY shares have gained approximately 14.6% over the recent month, slightly outpacing TFC's 12-14% rise amid positive earnings reactions.
- Year-to-date, KEY is up 8.6%, ahead of TFC's 4.4%, reflecting stronger relative momentum in the regional banking sector.
- TFC boasts a larger market cap of $63 billion versus KEY's $24 billion, offering greater scale but potentially slower agility.
- Both project robust return on tangible common equity (ROTCE), with KEY targeting 16-19% and TFC at 13.8% recently.
Introduction
KeyCorp (KEY) and Truist Financial Corporation (TFC) are prominent regional banks navigating a dynamic interest rate environment and economic shifts. This comparison analyzes their recent performance, financial health, and market positioning, aiding investors and traders focused on the financial sector. With both stocks reacting positively to recent quarterly results, understanding their relative strengths in growth, profitability, and risk can inform portfolio decisions in today's market.
KEY Overview and Recent Performance
KeyCorp (KEY), a regional bank headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio, serves consumers and businesses across the Midwest and Northeast through commercial banking, retail banking, and investment services. In recent market activity, KEY shares have climbed around 14.6% over the past month, driven by a strong Q1 2026 earnings report. Net income rose 33% to $486 million, with revenue up 10% to $1.95 billion and net interest income (NII) increasing 11% year-over-year. The net interest margin expanded slightly, bolstered by higher loan yields. Sentiment has improved on projections for ROTCE of 16-19% and a solid Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio, amid stabilizing deposit trends and controlled credit costs.
TFC Overview and Recent Performance
Truist Financial Corporation (TFC), formed from the merger of BB&T and SunTrust, operates as a superregional bank primarily in the Southeast, offering retail, commercial, and wealth management services. Over recent weeks, TFC stock has advanced about 12-14%, fueled by solid Q1 2026 results. Net income available to common shareholders reached $1.38 billion, with EPS up 25% to $1.09. ROTCE improved to 13.8%, supported by a stable CET1 ratio of 10.8%. While NII dipped slightly quarter-over-quarter due to deposit mix shifts, asset quality remained strong with nonperforming assets at manageable levels, enhancing investor confidence in ongoing profitability initiatives.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both KEY and TFC operate similar regional banking models centered on deposits, loans, and fee-based services, but TFC's larger scale provides broader diversification across geographies. Growth drivers include NII expansion from rate normalization, though KEY shows faster recent loan yield improvements. Momentum favors KEY with superior one-month and YTD gains, while TFC offers lower P/E at 12.6 versus 13.6. Risk factors like interest rate sensitivity and credit provisions are comparable, with both maintaining healthy CET1 ratios. Market sentiment leans positive for both post-earnings, but KEY exhibits higher volatility and upside potential in regional bank rallies.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI models currently favor KEY over TFC due to stronger trend consistency in recent weeks, higher relative YTD performance, and robust earnings momentum with superior NII growth. While TFC provides stability through its size, KEY's catalysts position it better for near-term outperformance in a favorable banking environment, though sector risks remain.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is KEY is a Buy and TFC is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
KEY’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileTFC’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- KEY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TFC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
KEY’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TFC’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- KEY’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TFC’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
KEY (@Regional Banks) experienced а -1.62% price change this week, while TFC (@Regional Banks) price change was -2.03% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was -0.59%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.08%, and the average quarterly price growth was +16.59%.
Reported Earning Dates
KEY is expected to report earnings on Jul 21, 2026.
TFC is expected to report earnings on Jul 16, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (-0.59% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
| KEY | TFC | KEY / TFC | |
| Capitalization | 23.1B | 59.8B | 39% |
| EBITDA | N/A | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | 4.268 | -0.496 | -860% |
| P/E Ratio | 13.07 | 11.87 | 110% |
| Revenue | 7.47B | 20.6B | 36% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 4.97B | - |
| Total Debt | 17B | 69.1B | 25% |
KEY | TFC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 66 | 68 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 78 Overvalued | 57 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 77 | 95 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 8 | 5 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 52 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 87 | 51 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TFC's Valuation (57) in the null industry is in the same range as KEY (78) in the Major Banks industry. This means that TFC’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
KEY's Profit vs Risk Rating (77) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as TFC (95) in the null industry. This means that KEY’s stock grew similarly to TFC’s over the last 12 months.
TFC's SMR Rating (5) in the null industry is in the same range as KEY (8) in the Major Banks industry. This means that TFC’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
KEY's Price Growth Rating (48) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as TFC (52) in the null industry. This means that KEY’s stock grew similarly to TFC’s over the last 12 months.
TFC's P/E Growth Rating (51) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KEY (87) in the Major Banks industry. This means that TFC’s stock grew somewhat faster than KEY’s over the last 12 months.
| KEY | TFC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 66% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 59% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 62% | 7 days ago 62% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 63% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 52% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| HVAC | 41.64 | 0.85 | +2.08% |
| Advisorshares HVAC And Industrials ETF | |||
| LEAD | 85.71 | 0.73 | +0.86% |
| Siren DIVCON Leaders Dividend ETF | |||
| GDV | 29.20 | 0.11 | +0.38% |
| Gabelli Dividend & Income Trust (The) | |||
| GMAR | 43.84 | 0.01 | +0.02% |
| FT Vest U.S. Eq Mod Buffr ETF - Mar | |||
| LFAO | 166.75 | N/A | N/A |
| LifeX 2055 Longevity Income ETF | |||
KEY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KEY has been closely correlated with CFG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if KEY jumps, then CFG could also see price increases.
TFC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TFC has been closely correlated with CFG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TFC jumps, then CFG could also see price increases.