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CME vs TW
Which Stock Would AI Choose? CME Group (CME) vs. Tradeweb Markets (TW) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CME Group is the world's leading derivatives marketplace, while Tradeweb Markets operates electronic marketplaces for fixed income, credit, equities, and money markets.
- Both stocks sit within financial market infrastructure, but their business models diverge sharply: CME is an exchange and clearinghouse, while TW is primarily an execution venue for over-the-counter (OTC) trading.
- Recent quarters show TW posting faster top-line growth, while CME leans on scale, recurring market-data revenue, and capital returns.
- CME trades near $264 after a pullback from its 52-week high of roughly $329, while TW has cooled from a 52-week high near $149.
- Relative performance and risk profiles differ meaningfully, making each appealing to different types of investors.
Introduction
Investors evaluating financial-services and exchange-related equities frequently compare companies that monetize market activity in distinct ways. CME and TW are two such names, each a leader in its respective niche of market infrastructure. This stock comparison examines their relative performance, business drivers, and current market positioning, offering a framework for traders and investors weighing stability, growth, and risk. Both firms benefit from structural trends such as electronification and volatility-driven trading volumes, yet their exposure to those trends differs considerably.
CME Overview and Recent Performance
CME Group Inc. operates the world's leading derivatives marketplace, comprising exchanges including CME, CBOT, NYMEX, and COMEX. It earns revenue primarily from clearing and transaction fees, plus a fast-growing market-data and information-services segment. In recent weeks the stock has traded in the mid-$260s to upper-$270s, after pulling back from a 52-week high near $329 earlier in the year and rebounding from a mid-year low near $218.
Fundamentals remain solid. The company reported record first-quarter 2026 revenue of approximately $1.88 billion, and its market-data and information-services revenue reached a record $238 million in the second quarter of 2026. Sentiment has been shaped by a combination of factors: strong average daily volume (ADV) growth, new product launches such as leveraged loan futures and single-stock futures, and a planned Treasury Link initiative connecting Treasury futures to cash-market liquidity. At the same time, analysts have flagged competitive pressure from offshore crypto exchanges and perpetual futures as a reason shares sold off earlier in the year, though recent commentary from Bank of America suggested the selloff was overdone.
TW Overview and Recent Performance
Tradeweb Markets Inc. builds and operates electronic marketplaces for rates, credit, equities, and money markets, serving institutional, wholesale, and retail clients globally. Unlike a central clearinghouse, TW's model centers on connecting buyers and sellers through request-for-quote, click-to-trade, and automated execution workflows. The stock has traded near $101 to $113 in recent weeks, down from a 52-week high around $149.
Operationally, TW has posted strong growth. First-quarter 2026 revenue climbed 21.2% year over year to a record $617.8 million, the first time quarterly revenue surpassed $600 million, while adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) rose 25.6%. Average daily volume reached $3.3 trillion, up 31.4%, with international revenue representing about 44% of the total. The company continues to invest in automation through tools such as AiEX and its Ai-Price bond pricing engine. Sentiment has been mixed, however: shares fell after the Q1 report despite the strong numbers, reflecting profit-taking and lingering concerns about fee compression and rising competition in core fixed-income products.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most important contrast between CME and TW lies in their business models. CME is a vertically integrated exchange and clearinghouse, meaning it provides both the venue and the central counterparty risk management for futures and options. This gives it scale, a recurring data revenue stream, and a balance sheet that holds substantial performance bonds and margin collateral. TW, by contrast, is an execution-focused intermediary that connects dealers and institutional investors electronically without acting as a central counterparty, allowing for faster, more asset-light growth but also exposing it more directly to fee competition.
On growth, TW has recently delivered the stronger momentum, with quarterly revenue rising more than 20% and ADV up over 30%. CME's growth is steadier and more diversified, supported by record market-data revenue and new product launches. On valuation, CME trades at a lower forward price-to-earnings multiple than some peers, while TW carries a richer multiple that reflects higher growth expectations. Risk profiles also differ: CME faces competitive threats from new entrants and crypto venues, whereas TW is sensitive to rate-market volatility, fee compression, and the pace of electronification. From a market positioning standpoint, CME offers stability, dividends, and buybacks, while TW offers higher growth with a more volatile price path.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, relative momentum, catalysts, and stability, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward TW for its stronger recent revenue and volume growth and its structural tailwind from the ongoing shift toward electronic fixed-income trading. That said, the verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive. CME presents a more stable, diversified profile with recurring data revenue and consistent capital returns, which may appeal to AI systems prioritizing lower volatility and steady trend persistence. The relative outcome depends on which attributes an investor weights most heavily: near-term growth momentum or long-horizon stability and scale.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CME is a Hold and TW is a Hold.
CME | TW | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 63 | 20 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 95 Overvalued | 94 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 47 | 78 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 54 | 59 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 56 | 70 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 87 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TW's Valuation (94) in the Internet Software Or Services industry is in the same range as CME (95) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry. This means that TW’s stock grew similarly to CME’s over the last 12 months.
CME's Profit vs Risk Rating (47) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as TW (78) in the Internet Software Or Services industry. This means that CME’s stock grew similarly to TW’s over the last 12 months.
CME's SMR Rating (54) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as TW (59) in the Internet Software Or Services industry. This means that CME’s stock grew similarly to TW’s over the last 12 months.
CME's Price Growth Rating (56) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as TW (70) in the Internet Software Or Services industry. This means that CME’s stock grew similarly to TW’s over the last 12 months.
CME's P/E Growth Rating (57) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as TW (87) in the Internet Software Or Services industry. This means that CME’s stock grew similarly to TW’s over the last 12 months.
| CME | TW | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 45% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 65% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 61% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 43% | 1 day ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 38% | 1 day ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 40% | 1 day ago 61% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 19 days ago 51% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 41% | 4 days ago 65% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 39% | 1 day ago 61% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CME’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while TW’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- CME’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- TW’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CME’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TW’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CME’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 7 bearish.
- TW’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
CME (@Financial Publishing/Services) experienced а -1.42% price change this week, while TW (@Investment Banks/Brokers) price change was +2.15% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Financial Publishing/Services industry was -2.83%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.22%, and the average quarterly price growth was +0.56%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Banks/Brokers industry was -4.59%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.15%, and the average quarterly price growth was +9.79%.
Reported Earning Dates
CME is expected to report earnings on Oct 21, 2026.
TW is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Financial Publishing/Services (-2.83% weekly)The financial publishing /services sector includes companies that provide informational products and services that are of value to investors, financial/analytics professionals and other interested readers. The products include real-time stock quotes, financial news and analyses. Think S&P Global, Inc., Moody`s Corporation, Thomson-Reuters Corp and IHS Markit Ltd. Information is critical in making financial or investment decisions, and what makes this industry’s output relevant at all times, across various economic conditions.
@Investment Banks/Brokers (-4.59% weekly)These banks specialize in underwriting (helping companies with debt financing or equity issuances), IPOs, facilitating mergers and other corporate reorganizations and acting as a broker or financial advisor for institutions. They might also trade securities on their own accounts. Investment banks potentially thrive on expanding its network of clients, since that could help them increase profits. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and CME Group Inc are some of the largest investment banking companies.
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CME and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CME has been loosely correlated with ICE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 48% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CME jumps, then ICE could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CME | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CME | 100% | +1.19% | ||
| ICE - CME | 48% Loosely correlated | -0.37% | ||
| TW - CME | 45% Loosely correlated | +2.44% | ||
| MKTX - CME | 35% Loosely correlated | +0.18% | ||
| NDAQ - CME | 35% Loosely correlated | -0.37% | ||
| MSCI - CME | 24% Poorly correlated | +1.25% | ||
More | ||||
TW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TW has been loosely correlated with MKTX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 52% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if TW jumps, then MKTX could also see price increases.