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CME vs TW
Which Stock Would AI Choose? CME Group (CME) vs. Tradeweb Markets (TW) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CME commands a significantly larger market capitalization of over $103 billion compared to TW's approximately $25 billion, reflecting its dominant position in derivatives trading.
- Both stocks have delivered year-to-date (YTD) gains around 6%, but CME pulled back about 6% in recent weeks following its quarterly earnings.
- CME provides a higher dividend yield of 1.82% versus TW's 0.49%, appealing to income-focused investors.
- With a beta of 0.30, CME exhibits lower volatility relative to the market compared to TW's 0.78.
- Analysts maintain an overweight rating on CME with a target implying modest upside, while TW holds an equal-weight consensus ahead of its earnings.
- Recent record average daily volume (ADV) growth of 22% underscores CME's resilience amid market activity.
Introduction
CME Group (CME) and Tradeweb Markets (TW) represent key players in the electronic trading and exchange ecosystem, with CME leading in futures and options clearing and TW excelling in fixed-income and derivatives marketplaces. This stock comparison is particularly relevant for traders and investors tracking financial infrastructure amid volatile interest rates and trading volumes. By examining relative performance, valuations, and market positioning, readers can gauge opportunities in these resilient sectors, where shifts in global liquidity and regulatory environments drive sentiment.
CME Overview and Recent Performance
CME Group operates the world's leading derivatives marketplace, facilitating trading in futures, options, and swaps across asset classes like interest rates, equities, and commodities. In recent market activity, CME reported record quarterly earnings fueled by a 22% surge in ADV, highlighting robust demand for risk management tools amid economic uncertainty. However, a slight revenue miss relative to expectations prompted a roughly 6% stock price decline over recent weeks, positioning shares near the middle of their 52-week range ($257-$329). Trading at a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24.3 and forward P/E of 23.8, with a market cap exceeding $103 billion, sentiment remains supported by analysts' overweight ratings and a low beta of 0.30, signaling stability.
TW Overview and Recent Performance
Tradeweb Markets provides an electronic platform for institutional trading in rates, credit, equities, and money markets, emphasizing automation and data analytics. Shares of TW have mirrored broader financial sector trends, posting YTD gains of about 5.6% while trading at a trailing P/E of 30.1 and forward P/E of 34.1, reflecting growth expectations in a $25 billion market cap. Recent weeks have seen steady positioning ahead of quarterly earnings, with the stock within its 52-week range ($97-$149) and a beta of 0.78 indicating moderate market sensitivity. Analyst updates, including raised price targets, point to optimism around volume growth in fixed-income protocols, bolstering relative performance.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
CME Group’s integrated exchange and clearing model contrasts with Tradeweb’s marketplace approach, where CME benefits from network effects in derivatives versus TW’s expansion in institutional fixed-income volumes. Growth drivers include CME’s record ADV amid rate volatility and TW’s protocol automation. Recent momentum shows comparable YTD returns but CME’s post-earnings dip versus TW’s stability pre-earnings. Risk profiles differ with CME’s lower beta and higher dividend, while TW trades at a premium valuation signaling growth trade-offs. Both expose investors to financial sector dynamics, but CME garners stronger analyst sentiment in recent activity.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI tools, scanning trends and volatility, would likely favor CME in the current environment due to its trend consistency, record volume growth, lower volatility (beta 0.30), and overweight analyst positioning. While TW offers growth potential ahead of earnings, CME’s stability and catalysts position it probabilistically stronger for relative outperformance amid ongoing market flux.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CME is a Hold and TW is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CME’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileTW’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- CME’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- TW’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CME’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TW’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CME’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TW’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CME (@Financial Publishing/Services) experienced а -9.48% price change this week, while TW (@Investment Banks/Brokers) price change was -0.34% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Financial Publishing/Services industry was -2.72%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.39%, and the average quarterly price growth was -16.64%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Banks/Brokers industry was +0.13%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.38%, and the average quarterly price growth was -9.78%.
Reported Earning Dates
CME is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
TW is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Financial Publishing/Services (-2.72% weekly)The financial publishing /services sector includes companies that provide informational products and services that are of value to investors, financial/analytics professionals and other interested readers. The products include real-time stock quotes, financial news and analyses. Think S&P Global, Inc., Moody`s Corporation, Thomson-Reuters Corp and IHS Markit Ltd. Information is critical in making financial or investment decisions, and what makes this industry’s output relevant at all times, across various economic conditions.
@Investment Banks/Brokers (+0.13% weekly)These banks specialize in underwriting (helping companies with debt financing or equity issuances), IPOs, facilitating mergers and other corporate reorganizations and acting as a broker or financial advisor for institutions. They might also trade securities on their own accounts. Investment banks potentially thrive on expanding its network of clients, since that could help them increase profits. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and CME Group Inc are some of the largest investment banking companies.
| CME | TW | CME / TW | |
| Capitalization | 91.3B | 20.9B | 437% |
| EBITDA | 6.1B | 1.51B | 405% |
| Gain YTD | -7.107 | -6.402 | 111% |
| P/E Ratio | 21.56 | 24.79 | 87% |
| Revenue | 6.76B | 2.16B | 313% |
| Total Cash | 2.52B | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 3.42B | 143M | 2,394% |
CME | TW | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 61 | 67 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 36 Fair valued | 92 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 43 | 74 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 55 | 61 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 63 | 78 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 75 | 95 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CME's Valuation (36) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TW (92) in the Internet Software Or Services industry. This means that CME’s stock grew somewhat faster than TW’s over the last 12 months.
CME's Profit vs Risk Rating (43) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as TW (74) in the Internet Software Or Services industry. This means that CME’s stock grew similarly to TW’s over the last 12 months.
CME's SMR Rating (55) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as TW (61) in the Internet Software Or Services industry. This means that CME’s stock grew similarly to TW’s over the last 12 months.
CME's Price Growth Rating (63) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as TW (78) in the Internet Software Or Services industry. This means that CME’s stock grew similarly to TW’s over the last 12 months.
CME's P/E Growth Rating (75) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as TW (95) in the Internet Software Or Services industry. This means that CME’s stock grew similarly to TW’s over the last 12 months.
| CME | TW | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 67% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 47% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 42% | 1 day ago 71% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 47% | 1 day ago 79% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 38% | 1 day ago 61% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 39% | 1 day ago 58% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 18 days ago 47% | 4 days ago 57% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 41% | 8 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 52% |
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CME and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CME has been loosely correlated with CBOE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 60% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CME jumps, then CBOE could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CME | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CME | 100% | +0.84% | ||
| CBOE - CME | 60% Loosely correlated | +3.45% | ||
| TW - CME | 45% Loosely correlated | +2.47% | ||
| ICE - CME | 41% Loosely correlated | -2.76% | ||
| MKTX - CME | 35% Loosely correlated | -0.16% | ||
| SNEX - CME | 23% Poorly correlated | +1.39% | ||
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