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CMT vs OLN
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Core Molding Technologies (CMT) vs. Olin Corporation (OLN) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CMT (Core Molding Technologies) is a small-cap engineered materials manufacturer with a market capitalization near $200 million, while OLN (Olin Corporation) is a much larger, diversified chemicals and ammunition producer.
- The two stocks occupy different risk profiles: CMT carries modest leverage and lower volatility, whereas OLN carries roughly $2.8 billion in net debt and has reported recent net losses.
- CMT has shown steadier year-to-date relative performance but faces cyclical weakness in its truck and powersports end markets.
- OLN's near-term narrative is dominated by its pending all-stock merger with Huntsman and its "Beyond250" cost-savings program, alongside weaker chemical demand.
- Recent momentum favors CMT on a trailing-12-month basis, though both names face meaningful execution and demand headwinds.
Introduction
Investors weighing small-cap industrial resilience against large-cap chemical cyclicality often find few direct comparisons more instructive than CMT and OLN. Core Molding Technologies competes in engineered thermoplastics and thermoset structural products, while Olin Corporation spans chlor-alkali chemicals, vinyls, epoxy, and its Winchester ammunition business. Despite operating in different segments of the broader materials economy, both stocks are sensitive to manufacturing demand, end-market cycles, and input costs. This stock comparison examines their recent performance, market positioning, and the signals that could shape relative performance in the months ahead.
CMT Overview and Recent Performance
CMT, Core Molding Technologies, is an engineered materials company headquartered in Columbus, Ohio, specializing in molded thermoplastic and thermoset structural products for building products, utilities, transportation, and powersports industries across North America. With a market capitalization near $200 million and a beta (a measure of volatility versus the broader market) of roughly 0.39, the stock tends to be less volatile than the market average.
Recent market activity reflects a mixed picture. The company's trailing-twelve-month revenue declined, driven in part by softer truck and powersports demand, while new program awards and a clean balance sheet (modest cash and low debt) have supported the investment narrative. Analysts have raised the average price target in recent weeks, and the shares have gained more than 20% over the trailing 12 months. However, quarterly earnings have missed consensus estimates, and profit margins remain thin, leaving sentiment balanced between a recovery story and cyclical caution.
OLN Overview and Recent Performance
OLN, Olin Corporation, is a vertically integrated manufacturer and distributor of chemical products—including chlorine, caustic soda, vinyls, and epoxy—and, through Winchester, a leading U.S. producer of ammunition. Its scale far exceeds CMT, with annual revenue above $6 billion and a market capitalization in the multi-billion-dollar range.
The recent period has been challenging. Olin has posted net losses in consecutive quarters, pressured by weak global chemical demand, Asian import competition, and a disruption at its Freeport facility. Its Winchester segment has been a relative bright spot, with ammunition sales rising on military and commercial demand. The company's planned all-stock merger with Huntsman, targeted to close in the first half of 2027 with more than $400 million in expected cost synergies, is a central catalyst. Elevated leverage—net debt near $2.85 billion—and negative operating cash flow remain key investor concerns, even as management advances its "Beyond250" cost-reduction program.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most striking contrast between these two stocks is scale and financial posture. CMT operates with a conservative balance sheet and a narrow, specialized product base, while OLN carries significant leverage and a diversified—but currently challenged—chemicals portfolio. On growth drivers, CMT leans on new program awards and diversification away from heavy-truck exposure; OLN leans on cost synergies, the Huntsman merger, and Winchester's defense-linked demand.
Risk factors diverge as well. CMT's risks center on end-market cyclicality, execution on new capacity, and thin margins. OLN's risks include weak chlor-alkali and epoxy pricing, integration uncertainty, and leverage reduction. On market sentiment, CMT has benefited from improving analyst targets and lower volatility, while OLN has faced downward price-target revisions and a sharp multi-month decline despite its longer-term total-return track record. Sector exposure also differs: CMT is tied to industrial and transportation manufacturing, whereas OLN spans commodity chemicals and consumer/defense ammunition.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors—trend consistency, balance-sheet stability, and relative momentum—Tickeron's AI would currently lean toward CMT as the more favorable relative setup. The stock's lower volatility, conservative capital structure, and steadier 12-month price trend contrast with OLN's ongoing losses, elevated leverage, and near-term merger execution risk. That said, the verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: OLN's merger catalyst and cost-savings program could re-rate the stock if execution improves, while CMT remains exposed to cyclical demand softness. Traders should weigh these trade-offs against their own timeframe and risk tolerance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CMT is a StrongBuy and OLN is a StrongBuy.
CMT sees its Stochastic Oscillator ascends from oversold territory
On November 09, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for CMT moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 62 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 52 of the 62 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 84%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CMT just turned positive on November 10, 2026. Looking at past instances where CMT's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 41 of 54 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Following a +4.43% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CMT advanced for three days, in 225 of 290 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
CMT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 03, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CMT as a result. In 61 of 95 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
CMT moved below its 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 50-day moving average for CMT moved below the 200-day moving average on November 09, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CMT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
The Aroon Indicator for CMT entered a downward trend on October 26, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 52 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.190) is normal, around the industry mean (2.284). P/E Ratio (25.198) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-17.137). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.050) is also within normal values, averaging (1.548). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.039) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.802) is also within normal values, averaging (48.960).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. CMT’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 84 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
Momentum Indicator for OLN turns positive, indicating new upward trend
OLN saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 23, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 74 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 55 of the 74 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 74%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for OLN just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where OLN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
OLN moved above its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for OLN crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 03, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +13.08% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where OLN advanced for three days, in 180 of 273 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 111 of 192 cases where OLN Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 58%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for OLN moved out of overbought territory on November 03, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 27 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 20 of the 27 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 74%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 41 of 52 cases where OLN's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where OLN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
OLN broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 41 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.153) is normal, around the industry mean (1.147). P/E Ratio (-10.006) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.243). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.050) is also within normal values, averaging (3.769). Dividend Yield (0.046) settles around the average of (0.195) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.289) is also within normal values, averaging (0.578).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. OLN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. OLN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock worse than average.
CMT | OLN | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 35 | 25 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 52 Fair valued | 41 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 57 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 84 | 94 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 59 | 57 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 22 | 98 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
OLN's Valuation (41) in the Industrial Specialties industry is in the same range as CMT (52) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that OLN’s stock grew similarly to CMT’s over the last 12 months.
CMT's Profit vs Risk Rating (57) in the Industrial Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for OLN (100) in the Industrial Specialties industry. This means that CMT’s stock grew somewhat faster than OLN’s over the last 12 months.
CMT's SMR Rating (84) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as OLN (94) in the Industrial Specialties industry. This means that CMT’s stock grew similarly to OLN’s over the last 12 months.
OLN's Price Growth Rating (57) in the Industrial Specialties industry is in the same range as CMT (59) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that OLN’s stock grew similarly to CMT’s over the last 12 months.
CMT's P/E Growth Rating (22) in the Industrial Machinery industry is significantly better than the same rating for OLN (98) in the Industrial Specialties industry. This means that CMT’s stock grew significantly faster than OLN’s over the last 12 months.
| CMT | OLN | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 74% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 84% | 1 day ago 79% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 74% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 68% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 76% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 66% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 10 days ago 66% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 17 days ago 71% | 6 days ago 76% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 69% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 58% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CMT’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while OLN’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- CMT’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- OLN’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CMT’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while OLN’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CMT’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- OLN’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CMT (@Chemicals: Specialty) experienced а +8.90% price change this week, while OLN (@Chemicals: Major Diversified) price change was -0.17% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Chemicals: Specialty industry was -2.26%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.07%, and the average quarterly price growth was -12.22%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Chemicals: Major Diversified industry was -2.64%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.30%, and the average quarterly price growth was -24.97%.
Reported Earning Dates
CMT is expected to report earnings on Mar 16, 2027.
OLN is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Chemicals: Specialty (-2.26% weekly)The specialty chemicals sector includes companies that produce chemicals and industrial gases, which are of relatively high-value, often made to customer specifications. Examples of specialty chemicals are electronic chemicals, industrial gases, coatings, adhesives and sealants, industrial and institutional cleaning chemicals. The products are often valued on the basis of their purposes/performances rather than for their composition. Linde Plc, Ecolab Inc., Air Products and Chemicals, Inc., and Dow, Inc. are some of the largest companies making specialty chemicals.
@Chemicals: Major Diversified (-2.64% weekly)The major diversified chemicals industry includes companies that produce a wide range of chemicals and industrial gases. The products are often used as raw materials in the manufacturing of various types of goods, including plastics, paints, carpets, and fixtures to name a few. Major companies making diversified chemicals include DuPont de Nemours Inc., Celanese Corporation, Celanese Corporation and Westlake Chemical Corporation.
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CMT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CMT has been loosely correlated with ALTO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 56% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CMT jumps, then ALTO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CMT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMT | 100% | +1.12% | ||
| ALTO - CMT | 56% Loosely correlated | +0.52% | ||
| ASIX - CMT | 46% Loosely correlated | -1.47% | ||
| OLN - CMT | 44% Loosely correlated | -0.34% | ||
| REX - CMT | 37% Loosely correlated | -1.61% | ||
| HUN - CMT | 36% Loosely correlated | -0.42% | ||
More | ||||
OLN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, OLN has been closely correlated with DOW. These tickers have moved in lockstep 78% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if OLN jumps, then DOW could also see price increases.
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