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CMT vs OLN
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Core Molding Technologies (CMT) vs. Olin Corporation (OLN) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Core Molding Technologies (CMT) is a small-cap engineered materials company with a market capitalization of approximately $214 million, while Olin Corporation (OLN) is a diversified chemical and ammunition manufacturer valued at roughly $2.5 billion.
- CMT has delivered a year-to-date gain of roughly 24%, driven by new business wins and an improving demand outlook, whereas OLN has posted a modest single-digit year-to-date increase while grappling with negative trailing earnings.
- OLN carries substantial leverage with net debt of approximately $2.7 billion, while CMT maintains a conservative balance sheet with a debt-to-adjusted-EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) ratio below one times.
- Both companies are navigating cyclical headwinds in their respective end markets, but CMT is positioned for a recovery in truck demand and expansion into building products, while OLN faces ongoing pricing pressure in chlor-alkali and epoxy markets.
- Short interest on OLN stands above 12% of its float, reflecting elevated bearish sentiment, while CMT benefits from a quieter trading profile with lower institutional scrutiny.
Introduction
Investors scouring the basic materials and industrials landscape often encounter two very different types of companies: established, diversified giants and nimble, niche-oriented manufacturers. This comparison between CMT (Core Molding Technologies) and OLN (Olin Corporation) highlights precisely that contrast. One is a small-cap engineered materials specialist serving the truck, powersports, and building products markets; the other is a vertically integrated chemical and ammunition conglomerate with global operations. For traders and investors evaluating relative performance, momentum, and risk, understanding how these two stocks stack up in the current market environment can offer valuable perspective on where opportunity and caution may reside across the basic materials sector.
CMT Overview and Recent Performance
CMT, headquartered in Columbus, Ohio, specializes in molded thermoplastic and thermoset structural products, serving medium- and heavy-duty truck manufacturers, powersports brands, building products customers, and industrial markets across North America. In recent months, the stock has shown notable upward momentum, trading near the $24 level and posting a year-to-date gain of approximately 24%. The 52-week range has spanned from roughly $16.37 to $28.69, reflecting substantial recovery from earlier lows.
Recent weeks have been shaped by the company's "Invest for Growth" strategy, which includes a $25 million plant expansion in Mexico—encompassing the Matamoros facility and a new Monterrey site—aimed at supporting new program wins. Core Molding secured $63 million in new business during fiscal 2025, with over 65% of those awards falling outside its largest end markets of truck and powersports, signaling meaningful diversification. The company's proprietary sheet molding compound (SMC) has gained traction in building products, generating close to $10 million in revenue in that segment alone. While revenue declined roughly 9.5% for the full year 2025 due to a known truck program phase-out and soft consumer demand, fourth-quarter sales rebounded 19.5% year-over-year, and management guided for flat to up 5% revenue growth in 2026, with a path to over $300 million in revenue by 2027.
OLN Overview and Recent Performance
OLN, based in Clayton, Missouri, operates across three distinct segments: Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls, Epoxy, and Winchester (ammunition). With a market capitalization near $2.5 billion, it represents a far larger and more complex enterprise than CMT. The stock has traded in a 52-week range of approximately $18.08 to $30.46 and currently sits near $21.88, reflecting a challenging period for the chemicals business that has weighed on overall performance.
Recent quarters have been difficult for Olin. The company reported a net loss of $85.7 million for the fourth quarter of 2025 and followed with another loss of $83 million in the first quarter of 2026. Trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share (EPS) stand at negative $1.53, pushing the price-to-earnings ratio into negative territory. The Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls segment has been pressured by weak chlorine demand, customer destocking, and trough pricing, while the Epoxy segment continues to face market saturation from subsidized Asian competitors. On a more constructive note, the Winchester segment has delivered growth in military sales, and management's "Beyond250" cost-reduction initiative realized $44 million in structural cost savings during 2025. The company maintains a dividend yield near 3.48%, though the payout ratio has risen well above 100% of earnings given the losses. Net debt stands at approximately $2.7 billion, translating to a net debt-to-adjusted-EBITDA ratio of roughly 4.1 times.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
When placed side by side, CMT and OLN present stark contrasts across nearly every relevant investment dimension. In terms of scale, OLN generates approximately $6.7 billion in trailing twelve-month revenue—roughly 25 times CMT's $274 million. Yet size has not translated into stability recently; OLN is unprofitable on a trailing basis while CMT remains solidly in the black with a trailing P/E (Price-to-Earnings) ratio near 22.
Balance sheet quality diverges sharply. CMT holds $38 million in cash against $19.7 million in term debt, yielding a debt-to-adjusted-EBITDA ratio below 0.7 times—a conservative posture that supports ongoing expansion investments. OLN, by contrast, carries $3.3 billion in total debt against $192 million in cash, and its net debt-to-adjusted-EBITDA of over 4 times reflects a meaningfully leveraged capital structure.
Growth trajectories also differ. CMT is navigating a known headwind—the phase-out of a major truck program—but is simultaneously building momentum in new verticals such as building products, industrial applications, and aerospace. The company projects a recovery to over $300 million in revenue by 2027. OLN is managing a cyclical trough across its chemicals businesses while leaning on its Winchester ammunition segment and cost-cutting initiatives to stabilize results. Sentiment readings reinforce the divergence: short interest in OLN exceeds 12% of float, suggesting widespread skepticism, while CMT trades with far less contentious positioning.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable market data, trend consistency, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI-driven analysis would likely favor CMT over OLN in the current environment. CMT exhibits a clearer positive trajectory: profitable operations, a clean balance sheet, diversification into growing end markets, and a defined path toward revenue expansion supported by concrete customer program wins. Its smaller size introduces liquidity considerations, but the company's financial discipline and margin stability within the 17%–19% gross margin range provide a foundation that algorithmic models tend to reward. Meanwhile, OLN contends with negative earnings momentum, heavy leverage, elevated short interest, and a chemicals cycle that has yet to show definitive signs of recovery—factors that introduce considerable uncertainty. While OLN's Winchester segment and cost-reduction efforts offer potential catalysts, the weight of evidence suggests a probabilistic edge for CMT in terms of trend stability and near-term risk-adjusted positioning. This assessment reflects current observable conditions and is not a prediction of future outcomes.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CMT is a Hold and OLN is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CMT’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileOLN’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CMT’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- OLN’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CMT’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while OLN’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CMT’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
- OLN’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
CMT (@Chemicals: Specialty) experienced а +3.91% price change this week, while OLN (@Chemicals: Major Diversified) price change was -15.64% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Chemicals: Specialty industry was +6.27%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.12%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.81%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Chemicals: Major Diversified industry was -1.90%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.16%, and the average quarterly price growth was -6.15%.
Reported Earning Dates
CMT is expected to report earnings on Nov 10, 2026.
OLN is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Chemicals: Specialty (+6.27% weekly)The specialty chemicals sector includes companies that produce chemicals and industrial gases, which are of relatively high-value, often made to customer specifications. Examples of specialty chemicals are electronic chemicals, industrial gases, coatings, adhesives and sealants, industrial and institutional cleaning chemicals. The products are often valued on the basis of their purposes/performances rather than for their composition. Linde Plc, Ecolab Inc., Air Products and Chemicals, Inc., and Dow, Inc. are some of the largest companies making specialty chemicals.
@Chemicals: Major Diversified (-1.90% weekly)The major diversified chemicals industry includes companies that produce a wide range of chemicals and industrial gases. The products are often used as raw materials in the manufacturing of various types of goods, including plastics, paints, carpets, and fixtures to name a few. Major companies making diversified chemicals include DuPont de Nemours Inc., Celanese Corporation, Celanese Corporation and Westlake Chemical Corporation.
| CMT | OLN | CMT / OLN | |
| Capitalization | 216M | 2.13B | 10% |
| EBITDA | 24.9M | 410M | 6% |
| Gain YTD | 21.945 | -8.774 | -250% |
| P/E Ratio | 29.11 | 48.57 | 60% |
| Revenue | 271M | 6.7B | 4% |
| Total Cash | 23.5M | 177M | 13% |
| Total Debt | 32.8M | 3.41B | 1% |
CMT | OLN | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 86 | 83 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 57 Fair valued | 15 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 72 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 83 | 95 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 45 | 64 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 8 | 10 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
OLN's Valuation (15) in the Industrial Specialties industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CMT (57) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that OLN’s stock grew somewhat faster than CMT’s over the last 12 months.
CMT's Profit vs Risk Rating (72) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as OLN (100) in the Industrial Specialties industry. This means that CMT’s stock grew similarly to OLN’s over the last 12 months.
CMT's SMR Rating (83) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as OLN (95) in the Industrial Specialties industry. This means that CMT’s stock grew similarly to OLN’s over the last 12 months.
CMT's Price Growth Rating (45) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as OLN (64) in the Industrial Specialties industry. This means that CMT’s stock grew similarly to OLN’s over the last 12 months.
CMT's P/E Growth Rating (8) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as OLN (10) in the Industrial Specialties industry. This means that CMT’s stock grew similarly to OLN’s over the last 12 months.
| CMT | OLN | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 76% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 76% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 73% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 70% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 74% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 73% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 68% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 72% | 7 days ago 73% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 54% |
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