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COP vs MGY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ConocoPhillips (COP) vs. Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ConocoPhillips (COP) operates as a global exploration and production (E&P) company, while Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) is a focused independent producer in the Eagle Ford Shale.
- Year-to-date (YTD), MGY has gained 35%, slightly outperforming COP's 31% amid strong energy sector momentum.
- Both stocks have declined about 8% in recent weeks due to easing crude oil prices, reflecting sector sensitivity.
- COP offers a larger market cap ($148B vs. $5.6B) and higher dividend yield (2.76% vs. 2.10%), appealing to stability-focused investors.
- Analyst targets suggest similar upside: 14% for COP ($139) and 15% for MGY ($34).
- MGY shows stronger profitability with a 25% profit margin and 17% return on equity (ROE), versus COP's 13% and 12%.
Introduction
In the dynamic energy sector, comparing a multinational giant like ConocoPhillips (COP) with a nimble U.S.-focused producer such as Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) highlights key trade-offs in scale, focus, and risk. Both operate in oil and gas exploration and production (E&P), making them sensitive to commodity prices, geopolitical events, and supply dynamics. This stock comparison analyzes their recent performance, financial health, and market positioning, offering insights for traders eyeing sector rotation or long-term investors assessing relative strength in a volatile oil environment. Such evaluations aid in understanding diversification versus concentrated growth potential.
COP Overview and Recent Performance
ConocoPhillips (COP) is an independent E&P company with a diversified portfolio spanning Alaska, the Lower 48 states, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, and Asia Pacific. It explores and produces crude oil, natural gas, and liquefied natural gas (LNG), with significant unconventional and conventional assets globally. In recent market activity, COP shares have pulled back around 8% over the past month amid softening crude prices, following robust YTD gains of 31% driven by favorable energy demand. Sentiment has been influenced by anticipation of Q1 earnings, where EPS estimates have seen upward revisions despite a projected year-over-year decline, alongside LNG deal progress and global exploration prospects. Trading near $122 with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.2, COP reflects stability with low recent volatility.
MGY Overview and Recent Performance
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) is an independent E&P firm concentrated on the Eagle Ford Shale and Austin Chalk formations in South Texas, emphasizing efficient development of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves. Recent weeks have seen MGY shares decline approximately 8.5%, mirroring sector pressures from easing oil prices, after strong YTD performance of 35% fueled by operational outperformance and higher crude benchmarks. Key influences include a recent 10% quarterly dividend hike and solid profitability metrics, with shares trading around $29 and a P/E of 17.0. Investor sentiment remains positive on its high-return assets and low debt levels, supporting resilience in fluctuating markets.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Business models differ markedly: COP leverages global diversification across geographies and LNG for balanced exposure, while MGY concentrates on premium South Texas acreage for higher well returns but greater regional risk. Growth drivers include COP’s international catalysts and MGY’s efficient drilling amid Permian-like economics.
Recent momentum shows parity in pullbacks, but MGY edges YTD and 12-month returns (35% vs. 31%; 38% vs. 34%). Risk factors highlight COP’s scale reducing volatility (beta 0.19) versus MGY’s 0.83, with the latter’s lower debt/equity (21% vs. 38%) aiding flexibility. Both face oil price swings, but MGY’s superior profit margin (25% vs. 13%) and ROE (17% vs. 12%) signal efficiency trade-offs against COP’s cash flow strength. Market sentiment favors MGY for growth, COP for income.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors MGY over COP in the near term, based on stronger relative YTD momentum, elevated profitability metrics, and attractive positioning in U.S. shale amid stable oil trends. While COP offers greater stability and global catalysts, MGY’s efficiency and upside potential align better with observable trend consistency in recent market activity.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is COP is a Hold and MGY is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
COP’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileMGY’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- COP’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- MGY’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
COP’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MGY’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- COP’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- MGY’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
COP (@Oil & Gas Production) experienced а -2.28% price change this week, while MGY (@Oil & Gas Production) price change was +0.18% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil & Gas Production industry was -1.48%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -11.37%, and the average quarterly price growth was +14.83%.
Reported Earning Dates
COP is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
MGY is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil & Gas Production (-1.48% weekly)The oil and gas production segment includes companies that specialize in exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. These companies are focused on upstream operations. Companies typically identify deposits, drill wells, and extract raw materials from underground. The industry also includes related services like rig operations, feasibility studies, machinery rentals etc. Several operators in this industry work with various types of contractors such as engineering procurement and construction contractors, as well as with joint-venture partners and oil field service companies. Oil and gas often involves large fixed costs of production; so, declining crude oil prices, for example, is a potential negative for this industry. Conoco Phillips, EOG Resources, Inc. and Pioneer Natural Resources Company are some examples of companies operating in this space.
| COP | MGY | COP / MGY | |
| Capitalization | 134B | 5.02B | 2,670% |
| EBITDA | 24.6B | 875M | 2,811% |
| Gain YTD | 18.978 | 25.426 | 75% |
| P/E Ratio | 18.59 | 15.68 | 119% |
| Revenue | 58.2B | 1.32B | 4,409% |
| Total Cash | 6.36B | 124M | 5,131% |
| Total Debt | 23.3B | 413M | 5,642% |
COP | MGY | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 58 | 66 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 43 Fair valued | 41 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 36 | 31 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 67 | 55 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 60 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 17 | 26 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 65 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MGY's Valuation (41) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as COP (43). This means that MGY’s stock grew similarly to COP’s over the last 12 months.
MGY's Profit vs Risk Rating (31) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as COP (36). This means that MGY’s stock grew similarly to COP’s over the last 12 months.
MGY's SMR Rating (55) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as COP (67). This means that MGY’s stock grew similarly to COP’s over the last 12 months.
MGY's Price Growth Rating (60) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as COP (60). This means that MGY’s stock grew similarly to COP’s over the last 12 months.
COP's P/E Growth Rating (17) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as MGY (26). This means that COP’s stock grew similarly to MGY’s over the last 12 months.
| COP | MGY | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 82% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 69% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 71% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 65% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 19 days ago 67% | 19 days ago 70% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 57% | 5 days ago 66% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 82% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 66% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| WEBS | 20.68 | 1.28 | +6.60% |
| Direxion Daily Dow Jones Int Br 3X ETF | |||
| ISBG | 12.41 | 0.17 | +1.38% |
| Incomestkd 1X Bitcoin & 1X Gold Premium ETF | |||
| QDEC | 35.56 | -0.02 | -0.06% |
| FT Vest Nasdaq-100 Buffer ETF – Dec | |||
| UDIV | 60.36 | -0.19 | -0.31% |
| Franklin US Core Dividend Tilt Index ETF | |||
| DGRW | 95.60 | -0.31 | -0.32% |
| WisdomTree US Quality Dividend Gr ETF | |||
COP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, COP has been closely correlated with EOG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if COP jumps, then EOG could also see price increases.