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CPRT vs ORLY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Copart (CPRT) vs. O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Copart (CPRT) has experienced significant revenue growth deceleration and market share erosion, with its stock declining over 40% from its 52-week high amid softening insurance auction volumes.
- O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) delivered its 33rd consecutive year of comparable store sales growth in 2025, with full-year revenue reaching $17.78 billion and EPS rising 10% year over year.
- CPRT faces structural headwinds from rising uninsured motorist rates and intensified competition from IAA (owned by RB Global), while ORLY benefits from an aging U.S. vehicle fleet and steady aftermarket demand.
- ORLY maintains a robust capital return program, repurchasing 23 million shares in 2025, while CPRT holds a fortress-like balance sheet with over $5.2 billion in cash.
- Valuation multiples have compressed for CPRT (trailing P/E of approximately 17) while ORLY trades at a premium reflecting its consistency and durability.
- Both companies operate in automotive-adjacent industries, but their diverging recent trajectories highlight the contrast between a cyclical recovery play and a steady compounder.
Introduction
Investors seeking exposure to the automotive ecosystem often encounter two very different business models: one tied to vehicle salvage and insurance claim cycles, the other to the steady demand of automotive parts retail. CPRT (Copart, Inc.) and ORLY (O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.) represent these contrasting approaches. Copart operates a global online vehicle auction platform primarily serving insurance companies, while O'Reilly is one of the largest automotive aftermarket parts retailers in North America. This stock comparison examines how these two companies have performed in the current market environment, what has driven their relative performance, and how AI-powered analytical tools might assess their positioning going forward.
CPRT Overview and Recent Performance
Copart, Inc. (CPRT) is a global leader in online vehicle auctions and remarketing services, operating over 250 locations across 11 countries. The company connects vehicle sellers—primarily property and casualty (P&C) insurance companies—with buyers in more than 185 countries through its proprietary auction technology. In recent market activity, CPRT has faced considerable headwinds. The stock has declined substantially from its 52-week high, with the share price falling from above $50 to the mid-to-high $20s range, reflecting a market capitalization contraction from roughly $59 billion to approximately $25.6 billion.
The primary pressure on Copart stems from decelerating revenue growth. After years of compounding revenue at roughly 15% annually, growth has slowed to the mid-single-digit range in recent quarters. A key factor has been a decline in insurance unit volumes, driven by rising numbers of uninsured and underinsured motorists as auto insurance premiums have spiked. Additionally, competitive dynamics in the online auction space have shifted: IAA, the industry's second-largest player, was acquired by RB Global and has since adopted more aggressive pricing strategies, successfully winning business from at least one national insurance carrier. In its most recent quarterly filings, CPRT reported flat to slightly declining revenue, missing analyst expectations, though the company continues to generate strong cash flows and maintains a robust balance sheet with over $5.2 billion in cash and equivalents.
ORLY Overview and Recent Performance
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) is a dominant force in the automotive aftermarket retail industry, operating 6,585 stores across the United States, Mexico, and Canada as of the end of 2025. The company serves both do-it-yourself (DIY) customers and professional service providers with a comprehensive inventory of automotive parts, tools, and accessories. O'Reilly's recent performance reflects the resilience of its business model. In its fiscal year 2025, the company generated $17.78 billion in revenue, a 6.4% increase year over year, while delivering comparable store sales growth of 4.7%—marking its 33rd consecutive year of positive comparable store sales growth.
Net income rose 6% to $2.54 billion, and diluted earnings per share (EPS) climbed 10% to $2.97, aided by aggressive share repurchases. The company bought back 23 million shares during 2025 at an average price of $92.20 per share (adjusted for a 15-for-1 forward stock split completed in June 2025). ORLY's gross margin expanded to 51.6%, reflecting supply chain efficiencies and effective pricing strategies. Management has guided for 2026 revenue between $18.7 billion and $19 billion, with EPS expected in the $3.10 to $3.20 range and 225 to 235 net new store openings. One area of caution is SG&A (selling, general, and administrative) expense pressure from rising healthcare and casualty claim costs, which have run ahead of management expectations in recent quarters.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
At the business model level, these two companies occupy distinct niches. Copart thrives on vehicle total-loss frequency—the rate at which insurers deem damaged vehicles uneconomical to repair and route them to auction. This makes CPRT a beneficiary of rising repair costs and parts inflation, but also exposes it to insurance coverage trends and competitive dynamics. O'Reilly, by contrast, benefits from an aging vehicle fleet (the average age of U.S. vehicles now exceeds 12.5 years), which drives demand for replacement parts and maintenance. This creates a steadier demand profile less susceptible to single-client losses or insurance cycle volatility.
On growth drivers, ORLY's expansion is methodical and store-based, with plans to open over 225 new locations in 2026, supplemented by distribution center investments. CPRT's growth has historically been tied to geographic expansion and increasing total-loss frequency, but recent market share losses to IAA represent a tangible risk. From a momentum standpoint, ORLY's consistent comparable store sales growth and aggressive buyback program have underpinned relative strength, while CPRT's deceleration and earnings misses have pressured its valuation. ORLY's trailing twelve-month operating margin of 19.5% is healthy though below CPRT's historically elite 35%-plus margins, which have recently compressed. On the balance sheet front, CPRT's $5.2 billion cash position provides substantial optionality for acquisitions or capital returns, while ORLY operates with higher financial leverage—long-term debt of approximately $6 billion—funded by its predictable cash flow generation.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, earnings momentum, and relative market positioning, Tickeron's AI analytical framework would likely express a near-term preference for ORLY over CPRT. O'Reilly's 33-year track record of uninterrupted comparable store sales growth, clear forward guidance, and robust capital return program create a pattern of stability that aligns well with trend-following AI models. Meanwhile, Copart's revenue deceleration, competitive market share losses, and negative earnings surprises introduce uncertainty that AI-driven systems typically penalize in relative rankings. That said, CPRT's dramatically compressed valuation and fortress balance sheet could present a more attractive risk-reward profile for deep-value-oriented or mean-reversion AI strategies, particularly if insurance volume trends stabilize or competitive pressures ease. The divergence between these two automotive-adjacent names underscores how AI models weigh consistency and momentum differently depending on strategy parameters.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CPRT is a Buy and ORLY is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CPRT’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileORLY’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CPRT’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- ORLY’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CPRT’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ORLY’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CPRT’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 2 bearish.
- ORLY’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
CPRT (@Office Equipment/Supplies) experienced а +1.20% price change this week, while ORLY (@Auto Parts: OEM) price change was +1.57% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Office Equipment/Supplies industry was -2.77%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.58%, and the average quarterly price growth was -7.69%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Auto Parts: OEM industry was -0.88%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.31%, and the average quarterly price growth was -0.73%.
Reported Earning Dates
CPRT is expected to report earnings on Sep 09, 2026.
ORLY is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Office Equipment/Supplies (-2.77% weekly)The industry produces equipment regularly used in offices by businesses and other organizations, and could range from items like Blank sheet paper, calendars, Label and adhesive paper, paper clips, janitorial supplies, to larger /higher cost products like computers, printers, photocopiers, office furniture and so on. Many businesses in the office supply industry have been expanding into related markets like business cards, plus printing and binding of high quality, high volume business and engineering documents. Some companies in this industry also offer shipping services, including packaging and bulk mailing. Herman Miller, Inc., Steelcase Inc. and HNI Corporation.
@Auto Parts: OEM (-0.88% weekly)OEM or Original Equipment Manufacturer of auto parts refers to the original producer of a vehicles components, and so OEM car parts are usually identical to the parts used in producing the vehicle in the first place. OEM parts tend to fit the specifications of a particular model, and their compatibility is often guaranteed by the automaker itself. OEM parts could be more expensive to buy (compared to other vendors’ products) when a consumer goes for replacement. However, increased competition from aftermarket parts/third-party vendors could, in some cases, keep EOM prices in check. The industry might progress further in adopting newer technologies like 3D printing to boost supply chain performance and quality. Aptiv PLC, Magna International Inc. and BorgWarner Inc. are major OEMs for autos.
| CPRT | ORLY | CPRT / ORLY | |
| Capitalization | 25.9B | 72.4B | 36% |
| EBITDA | 1.92B | 4.1B | 47% |
| Gain YTD | -28.633 | -4.177 | 685% |
| P/E Ratio | 17.35 | 28.47 | 61% |
| Revenue | 4.64B | 18.2B | 25% |
| Total Cash | 4.2B | 253M | 1,660% |
| Total Debt | 93.1M | 8.73B | 1% |
CPRT | ORLY | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 82 Overvalued | 99 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 23 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 50 | 1 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 64 | 59 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 90 | 70 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CPRT's Valuation (82) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry is in the same range as ORLY (99) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that CPRT’s stock grew similarly to ORLY’s over the last 12 months.
ORLY's Profit vs Risk Rating (23) in the Specialty Stores industry is significantly better than the same rating for CPRT (100) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry. This means that ORLY’s stock grew significantly faster than CPRT’s over the last 12 months.
ORLY's SMR Rating (1) in the Specialty Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CPRT (50) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry. This means that ORLY’s stock grew somewhat faster than CPRT’s over the last 12 months.
ORLY's Price Growth Rating (59) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as CPRT (64) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry. This means that ORLY’s stock grew similarly to CPRT’s over the last 12 months.
ORLY's P/E Growth Rating (70) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as CPRT (90) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry. This means that ORLY’s stock grew similarly to CPRT’s over the last 12 months.
| CPRT | ORLY | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 59% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 63% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 60% | 3 days ago 60% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 61% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 60% | 3 days ago 58% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 56% | 3 days ago 45% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 57% | 14 days ago 56% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 62% | 4 days ago 46% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 53% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 52% | 3 days ago 36% |
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CPRT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CPRT has been loosely correlated with FND. These tickers have moved in lockstep 64% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CPRT jumps, then FND could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CPRT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPRT | 100% | +2.72% | ||
| FND - CPRT | 64% Loosely correlated | +1.34% | ||
| WSM - CPRT | 63% Loosely correlated | +3.72% | ||
| RH - CPRT | 60% Loosely correlated | +5.08% | ||
| HD - CPRT | 60% Loosely correlated | +2.55% | ||
| LOW - CPRT | 58% Loosely correlated | +2.83% | ||
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