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CTBI vs TSBK
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Community Trust Bancorp (CTBI) vs. Timberland Bancorp (TSBK) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Community Trust Bancorp (CTBI) and Timberland Bancorp (TSBK) are both regional community banks with strong recent momentum, yet they differ sharply in scale, geography, and valuation.
- Both stocks delivered roughly similar one-year total returns of around 46% to 47%, outperforming the broader market by a wide margin.
- CTBI is the larger institution (market capitalization near $1.35 billion) with a higher dividend yield, while TSBK is a micro-cap bank (about $353 million) trading at a lower price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple.
- On valuation, TSBK appears comparatively cheaper at roughly 11.2x trailing earnings versus about 12.4x for CTBI.
- Risk profiles diverge: CTBI carries a larger commercial real estate concentration, while TSBK faces geographic concentration in Washington State.
Introduction
Regional and community banks have been a notable bright spot for investors, and two of the more interesting names in the space are CTBI and TSBK. Both are well-capitalized community banking franchises that have generated comparable recent returns, yet they operate in different regions, serve different local economies, and trade at different valuations. This stock comparison is relevant for investors and traders evaluating relative performance, dividend income, and market positioning within the small-cap banking sector. Understanding the contrasts between these two institutions can help clarify which profile may align better with a given strategy in the current market environment.
CTBI Overview and Recent Performance
Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. (CTBI) is a Kentucky-based bank holding company with roughly 80 locations across Kentucky, West Virginia, and Tennessee. As a regional community bank, it generates revenue primarily through interest income on commercial, real estate, and consumer lending, supplemented by wealth management and other non-interest services.
In recent market activity, CTBI has posted a one-year total return of approximately 46%, with a year-to-date gain near 34%. The shares have traded within a 52-week range of about $50 to $80, and the stock recently held near $74. Profitability has remained solid: return on equity (ROE, a measure of how efficiently shareholder capital generates profit) sits around 12.7%, and recent quarterly earnings showed roughly 19% year-over-year growth, supported by a net interest margin (the spread between interest earned on loans and paid on deposits) near 3.8%. Analyst coverage is limited but constructive, with a consensus "Buy" rating and an average price target above $81. Dividend income is a key attraction, with a yield of roughly 3.5%.
TSBK Overview and Recent Performance
Timberland Bancorp, Inc. (TSBK) is the holding company for Timberland Bank, a community-oriented institution founded in 1915 that operates about 23 branches across Washington State. Its lending portfolio spans residential, commercial real estate, multi-family, construction, land, consumer, and commercial business loans, with a strong relationship-based banking focus.
TSBK has delivered a one-year total return of approximately 47%, with a year-to-date gain near 31%. The shares have traded in a 52-week range of about $31 to $49 and recently held near $45. The bank has expanded its balance sheet steadily, with total assets surpassing $2 billion as of early 2026, and reported net income of roughly $15.4 million in the first half of fiscal 2026. Return on equity is about 11.9%, and recent quarterly earnings rose year-over-year on loan growth, a widening net interest margin, and solid deposit growth, prompting an increase in the quarterly dividend. TSBK trades at a lower trailing P/E of roughly 11.2x and offers a dividend yield near 2.6%.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most immediate contrast between these two banks is size and reach. CTBI is a multi-state regional franchise with a market capitalization roughly four times that of TSBK, giving it greater scale and a more diversified geographic footprint across three states. TSBK, by comparison, is a micro-cap concentrated in Washington State, which leaves it more exposed to localized economic conditions in the Pacific Northwest housing and commercial real estate markets.
On valuation, TSBK screens as the cheaper stock on a trailing earnings basis, while CTBI commands a modest premium that partly reflects its stronger profitability and larger scale. Income investors may favor CTBI for its higher dividend yield, while value-oriented investors may find TSBK's lower multiple appealing. In terms of risk, CTBI carries rising exposure to commercial real estate and some increase in non-performing loans (loans unlikely to be repaid in full), whereas TSBK's chief risk is geographic concentration alongside competitive pressure from larger banks. Both maintain low beta readings—TSBK is especially low at about 0.30—indicating below-market volatility relative to the broader equity market.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward CTBI at the current juncture, but the edge is not overwhelming. CTBI demonstrates a combination of stronger absolute profitability, a more diversified footprint, a higher dividend yield, and constructive analyst sentiment, which together suggest more consistent trend stability and institutional support. That said, TSBK's lower valuation, higher recent momentum in some periods, and disciplined balance-sheet growth make it a competitive alternative, particularly for those prioritizing relative value. The outcome would ultimately depend on the specific strategy and timeframe a bot is configured to follow, with CTBI offering a slightly more favorable blend of momentum, stability, and income in the current environment.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CTBI is a Hold and TSBK is a StrongBuy.
CTBI's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for CTBI entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 140 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 74 of the 140 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 53%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 29 of 57 cases where CTBI's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 09, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CTBI as a result. In 38 of 81 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 47%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CTBI turned negative on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 19 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 41%.
CTBI moved below its 50-day moving average on September 18, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CTBI crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 5 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 42%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CTBI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where CTBI's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 12 of 22 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
Following a +1.61% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CTBI advanced for three days, in 160 of 298 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
CTBI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 55, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. CTBI’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 67 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.448) is normal, around the industry mean (1.268). P/E Ratio (11.868) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.372). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.220) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.040) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.606) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
TSBK's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TSBK turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where TSBK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TSBK as a result. In 51 of 82 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
TSBK moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.20% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TSBK advanced for three days, in 182 of 315 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 10-day moving average for TSBK crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 5 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 33%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TSBK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
TSBK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for TSBK entered a downward trend on October 09, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 55, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TSBK’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 72 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.336) is normal, around the industry mean (1.268). P/E Ratio (11.706) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.372). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.560) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.026) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.405) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
CTBI | TSBK | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 84 | 85 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 67 Overvalued | 72 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 10 | 19 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 25 | 46 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 55 | 42 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 25 | 18 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CTBI's Valuation (67) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as TSBK (72) in the Savings Banks industry. This means that CTBI’s stock grew similarly to TSBK’s over the last 12 months.
CTBI's Profit vs Risk Rating (10) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as TSBK (19) in the Savings Banks industry. This means that CTBI’s stock grew similarly to TSBK’s over the last 12 months.
CTBI's SMR Rating (25) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as TSBK (46) in the Savings Banks industry. This means that CTBI’s stock grew similarly to TSBK’s over the last 12 months.
TSBK's Price Growth Rating (42) in the Savings Banks industry is in the same range as CTBI (55) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that TSBK’s stock grew similarly to CTBI’s over the last 12 months.
TSBK's P/E Growth Rating (18) in the Savings Banks industry is in the same range as CTBI (25) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that TSBK’s stock grew similarly to CTBI’s over the last 12 months.
| CTBI | TSBK | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 47% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 47% | 1 day ago 62% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 41% | 1 day ago 70% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 47% | 1 day ago 62% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 54% | 7 days ago 58% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 49% | 9 days ago 54% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 55% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 44% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CTBI’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while TSBK’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CTBI’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- TSBK’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CTBI’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TSBK’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CTBI’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 7 bearish.
- TSBK’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
CTBI (@Regional Banks) experienced а -4.49% price change this week, while TSBK (@Regional Banks) price change was +1.31% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +2.71%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.05%, and the average quarterly price growth was +9.08%.
Reported Earning Dates
CTBI is expected to report earnings on Jan 20, 2027.
TSBK is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+2.71% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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TSBK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TSBK has been closely correlated with FBIZ. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TSBK jumps, then FBIZ could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TSBK | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSBK | 100% | +2.96% | ||
| FBIZ - TSBK | 76% Closely correlated | +2.26% | ||
| THFF - TSBK | 74% Closely correlated | +2.13% | ||
| CTBI - TSBK | 73% Closely correlated | +4.04% | ||
| IBCP - TSBK | 73% Closely correlated | +2.70% | ||
| FMBH - TSBK | 73% Closely correlated | +2.76% | ||
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