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CVI vs PSX
Which Stock Would AI Choose? CVR Energy (CVI) vs. Phillips 66 (PSX) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both CVI and PSX are U.S. refiners benefiting from unusually strong refining margins (crack spreads) tied to Middle East supply disruptions.
- PSX is a diversified integrated downstream energy giant, while CVI is a smaller, more concentrated independent refiner with a nitrogen fertilizer business.
- CVI recently reinstated a dividend and continues to deleverage, but high leverage and renewable-fuel compliance (RIN) costs remain key risks.
- PSX reported a sharp year-over-year earnings rebound, with strong operating cash flow and active shareholder returns.
- Both names have delivered large gains over the past year, though their risk profiles, diversification, and balance-sheet positions differ materially.
- For deeper context on each name, visit CVI Major News and CVI Today's Price Move, as well as PSX Major News and PSX Today's Price Move.
- To see how automated strategies are positioned across the market, explore the Trending AI Robots page.
Introduction
Investors tracking the energy complex are increasingly comparing two very different ways to play refining strength: CVI (CVR Energy) and PSX (Phillips 66). Both companies generate a large share of earnings from turning crude oil into fuels, and both have rallied alongside elevated crack spreads. Yet they differ sharply in scale, diversification, and financial structure. This stock comparison is relevant for traders seeking exposure to refining momentum and for long-term investors weighing concentration versus stability. Understanding their relative performance and market positioning helps clarify which risk-and-reward profile best fits a given strategy.
CVI Overview and Recent Performance
CVI, or CVR Energy, operates two refineries (Coffeyville, Kansas and Wynnewood, Oklahoma) and a nitrogen fertilizer business through its interest in CVR Partners. As a smaller independent refiner with a market capitalization in the single-digit billions, it offers concentrated, high-beta exposure to refining margins and fertilizer prices. In recent weeks, strong crude utilization and elevated Group 3 crack spreads have lifted results, and the company reinstated a dividend while continuing its deleveraging program. However, CVI also carries relatively high leverage and faces sizable renewable-fuel compliance (RIN) costs and regulatory uncertainty, which have pressured margin capture despite improving industry conditions.
PSX Overview and Recent Performance
PSX, or Phillips 66, is an integrated downstream energy provider spanning Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, Marketing and Specialties, and Renewable Fuels. Its diversification and scale give it a steadier earnings base than pure-play refiners. In recent market activity, PSX posted a sharp year-over-year rebound in adjusted earnings, driven by stronger realized refining margins, higher capacity utilization, and improved capture rates, while midstream operations set volume records. The company generated billions in operating cash flow and returned capital through both dividends and buybacks. Even so, mark-to-market impacts on hedges, renewable-fuel policy risk, and a large net-debt balance remain considerations for investors.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron maintains hundreds of AI trading bots that monitor thousands of tickers across different strategies, timeframes, and performance profiles. Because market conditions shift constantly, only the most suitable bots for the current environment earn a place in the curated Trending AI Robots section. These automated systems vary widely in trading style, holding period, statistical track record, and the set of tickers they trade, allowing users to explore approaches aligned with their own objectives. For traders interested in how algorithmic models are interpreting names like CVI and PSX, reviewing the Trending AI Robots page is a practical starting point.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast is concentration versus diversification. CVI is a leaner, more leveraged business whose earnings are highly sensitive to refining and fertilizer cycles, giving it greater upside and downside potential. PSX spreads its exposure across refining, midstream, chemicals, marketing, and renewables, which generally smooths volatility but dilutes pure refining leverage. On momentum, both have benefited from tight product inventories and geopolitical supply shocks, though PSX pairs that tailwind with fee-based midstream cash flow and a more active buyback program. Risk factors also diverge: CVI faces heavier relative debt and RIN-driven compliance exposure, while PSX contends with derivative mark-to-market swings, labor and leadership changes, and renewable-fuel policy uncertainty.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward PSX for its more consistent trend structure, diversified earnings base, and stronger cash-flow stability, while recognizing that CVI may offer greater short-term leverage to refining-margin momentum. The relative positioning favors PSX on stability and risk-adjusted consistency, though the outcome is probabilistic and depends on whether refining tailwinds persist and how each company's specific catalysts develop.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CVI is a Hold and PSX is a Hold.
CVI in -11.35% downward trend, falling for three consecutive days on November 06, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where CVI declined for three days, in 207 of 278 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CVI as a result. In 60 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CVI turned negative on October 19, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 27 of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 63%.
CVI moved below its 50-day moving average on November 03, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CVI crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 06, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 12 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an Uptrend is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 8 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +8.79% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CVI advanced for three days, in 263 of 336 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
CVI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 208 of 250 cases where CVI Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 83%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 43, placing this stock slightly worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. CVI’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 97 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (7.301) is normal, around the industry mean (4.566). CVI's P/E Ratio (55.261) is considerably higher than the industry average of (10.639). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.490) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.010) settles around the average of (0.067) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.629) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
PSX in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026
PSX moved below its 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 34 of 55 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PSX as a result. In 41 of 77 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for PSX turned negative on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 24 of the 49 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 49%.
The 10-day moving average for PSX crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 09, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 20 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 45%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PSX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where PSX's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 18 of 23 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +5.62% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PSX advanced for three days, in 272 of 356 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
PSX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 241 of 332 cases where PSX Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 73%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 43, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PSX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 72 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.112) is normal, around the industry mean (4.566). P/E Ratio (13.977) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.639). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.811) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.021) settles around the average of (0.067) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.704) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
CVI | PSX | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 51 | 72 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 97 Overvalued | 72 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 45 | 11 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 59 | 40 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 38 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 4 | 94 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PSX's Valuation (72) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as CVI (97). This means that PSX’s stock grew similarly to CVI’s over the last 12 months.
PSX's Profit vs Risk Rating (11) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CVI (45). This means that PSX’s stock grew somewhat faster than CVI’s over the last 12 months.
PSX's SMR Rating (40) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as CVI (59). This means that PSX’s stock grew similarly to CVI’s over the last 12 months.
PSX's Price Growth Rating (38) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as CVI (60). This means that PSX’s stock grew similarly to CVI’s over the last 12 months.
CVI's P/E Growth Rating (4) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is significantly better than the same rating for PSX (94). This means that CVI’s stock grew significantly faster than PSX’s over the last 12 months.
| CVI | PSX | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 78% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 53% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 49% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 51% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 46% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 30 days ago 78% | 29 days ago 76% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 74% | 6 days ago 56% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 73% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CVI’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while PSX’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- CVI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PSX’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CVI’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PSX’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CVI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- PSX’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
CVI (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а -20.35% price change this week, while PSX (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was -7.81% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was -5.18%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -13.36%, and the average quarterly price growth was +13.64%.
Reported Earning Dates
CVI is expected to report earnings on Feb 23, 2027.
PSX is expected to report earnings on Feb 04, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (-5.18% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
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CVI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CVI has been closely correlated with DK. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CVI jumps, then DK could also see price increases.
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| CCFE | 25.90 | -0.05 | -0.18% |
| Concourse Capital Focused Equity ETF (CCFE) | |||
| VABS | 23.79 | -0.07 | -0.29% |
| Virtus Newfleet Securitized Income ETF (VABS) | |||
| QB | 45.81 | -0.15 | -0.32% |
| ProShares Nasdaq-100 Dynamic Buffer ETF (QB) | |||
| USCI | 102.00 | -0.81 | -0.79% |
| United States Commodity Index Fund (USCI) | |||
| PFXF | 16.40 | -0.15 | -0.91% |
| VanEck Preferred Securities ex Financials ETF (PFXF) | |||