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SU vs XOM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Suncor Energy (SU) vs. ExxonMobil (XOM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Suncor Energy (SU) has posted stronger recent momentum, with a year-to-date return exceeding 80% and a one-year total return above 100%, outpacing ExxonMobil (XOM) over the same periods.
- ExxonMobil (XOM) is the larger and more globally diversified operator, recently reporting a refining-driven earnings beat and reaching record highs, supported by scale and a 44-year streak of dividend increases.
- Both companies are integrated energy producers benefiting from elevated refining margins, but SU carries higher relative beta to Canadian oil sands and aggressive share-repurchase growth.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: Based on observable trend consistency, relative momentum, and capital-return catalysts, Tickeron's AI currently favors SU over XOM, though both remain positioned as cyclical-energy leaders.
- For more detail on each company's developments and daily moves, explore SU Major News, SU Today's Price Move, XOM Major News, and XOM Today's Price Move.
- To see how automated strategies are navigating the energy sector, visit Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Investors and traders evaluating the energy sector often weigh concentrated, high-momentum operators against diversified, globally scaled majors. This stock comparison examines two integrated oil and gas companies: SU, the Calgary-based Suncor Energy, and XOM, ExxonMobil, the largest U.S. oil producer by market capitalization. Both names have benefited in recent weeks from firmer crude and sharply higher refining margins driven by geopolitical supply disruptions. Yet their relative performance, growth drivers, and risk profiles differ meaningfully. This analysis is relevant to income-focused investors, momentum traders, and anyone seeking a clearer view of market positioning between a Canadian integrated producer and a global energy supermajor.
SU Overview and Recent Performance
SU (Suncor Energy Inc.) is one of Canada's largest integrated energy companies, spanning oil sands mining and upgrading, offshore production, refining, and retail fuel distribution under the Petro-Canada brand. The company produces roughly 800,000 barrels per day and operates refineries across Canada and Colorado.
In recent weeks, Suncor has captured investor attention through a strategic pivot toward its core Alberta corridor. Management agreed to sell interests in three offshore Canadian assets—Terra Nova, White Rose, and West White Rose—for about C$1.2 billion in cash plus contingent payments, and simultaneously increased its monthly share repurchases. This refocusing has been met with a wave of constructive analyst revisions, with several firms raising price targets and one major bank upgrading the stock on refining leverage and free-cash-flow yield. The shares reached a new 52-week high during recent market activity, reflecting building momentum across the integrated-producer group. Suncor trades near an elevated valuation relative to some fair-value estimates, which introduces sensitivity to any compression in refining margins or a slowdown in buybacks.
XOM Overview and Recent Performance
XOM (ExxonMobil) is a global integrated oil and gas supermajor with operations spanning upstream exploration and production, refining, chemicals, and liquefied natural gas (LNG). It is the largest U.S. oil producer, with a market capitalization in the hundreds of billions of dollars and a 44-year record of consecutive annual dividend increases.
In its most recent quarter, ExxonMobil reported revenue of roughly $113 billion and net income of about $15.4 billion, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) exceeding consensus estimates. The outperformance was concentrated in downstream operations, where refining margins surged on disruptions to fuel supply tied to conflict in the Middle East and Russia's war in Ukraine. U.S. Gulf Coast refineries ran at full utilization, while upstream earnings softened on lower crude prices. ExxonMobil raised its quarterly dividend by about 4% and reaffirmed a $20 billion share-repurchase plan for the coming year, even as it reduced net debt. The shares have reached record highs, though some valuation models suggest the rally may now sit modestly ahead of consensus fair-value estimates.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page showcases a curated selection of the platform's AI trading bots. Tickeron maintains hundreds of automated trading bots that collectively monitor and trade thousands of different tickers, yet only those best suited to current market conditions earn a place in this featured section. The bots span a wide range of trading styles, strategies, timeframes, performance metrics, and ticker universes, allowing users to compare approaches rather than rely on a single signal. For traders evaluating energy names such as SU and XOM, these automated tools offer an additional, data-driven lens on trend direction and relative strength. Explore the Trending AI Robots section to review which strategies are currently leading the platform.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two names is scale and diversification. XOM operates a globally diversified asset base spanning the Permian Basin, Guyana, LNG, and chemicals, which smooths earnings across commodity cycles. SU is more concentrated in Canadian oil sands, refining, and retail, giving it higher sensitivity to Canadian crude differentials and refining spreads.
On momentum, SU has been the stronger performer recently, with a year-to-date gain materially above XOM's and a one-year return that has roughly doubled. Suncor's aggressive buyback expansion and asset-disposition catalysts have reinforced that trend. XOM, by contrast, offers greater stability, a more defensive dividend record, and lower operational concentration, but its valuation multiple is higher and its recent upside has leaned heavily on refining margins that are partly tied to geopolitical conditions.
Risk profiles diverge as well. Suncor's shares are sensitive to execution around a leadership transition and to any retreat in oil-sands-linked cash flows, while ExxonMobil faces exposure to shifting oil-demand policy and energy-transition dynamics across its global footprint.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Weighing trend consistency, relative momentum, capital-return catalysts, and market positioning, Tickeron's AI currently leans toward SU as the favored name in this comparison. Suncor's stronger year-to-date and one-year relative performance, combined with its asset-sale refocusing and stepped-up buybacks, presents a more consistent near-term trend signal than ExxonMobil's refining-heavy quarter. That said, XOM remains the more stable, diversified operator, and its record highs reflect durable franchise strength. The verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: Suncor's edge rests on momentum and catalysts, while ExxonMobil's appeal lies in scale and resilience. Relative positioning may shift quickly as energy prices and refining margins evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is SU is a Buy and XOM is a Hold.
SU in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026
SU may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 26 of 30 cases where SU's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +2.43% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SU advanced for three days, in 250 of 362 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 218 of 300 cases where SU Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 73%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for SU moved out of overbought territory on October 27, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 31 of the 48 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 65%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SU as a result. In 47 of 77 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SU turned negative on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 30 of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 60%.
SU moved below its 50-day moving average on November 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SU declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 31, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SU’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 53 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.669) is normal, around the industry mean (1.516). P/E Ratio (9.178) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.246). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.230) is also within normal values, averaging (1.088). Dividend Yield (0.025) settles around the average of (0.053) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.887) is also within normal values, averaging (3.764).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 81 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
XOM's RSI Oscillator peaks and leaves overbought zone
The 10-day RSI Oscillator for XOM moved out of overbought territory on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 41 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In 22 of the 41 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at 54%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 03, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on XOM as a result. In 46 of 92 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for XOM turned negative on November 03, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 22 of the 51 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 43%.
XOM moved below its 50-day moving average on November 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XOM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 44%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +2.87% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XOM advanced for three days, in 232 of 371 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
XOM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 192 of 312 cases where XOM Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 62%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 31, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. XOM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: XOM's P/B Ratio (2.630) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.516). XOM has a moderately high P/E Ratio (21.347) as compared to the industry average of (10.246). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.392) is also within normal values, averaging (1.088). Dividend Yield (0.025) settles around the average of (0.053) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.911) is also within normal values, averaging (3.764).
SU | XOM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 36 | 89 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 53 Fair valued | 88 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 8 | 5 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 48 | 62 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 39 | 26 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 81 | 16 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SU's Valuation (53) in the Integrated Oil industry is somewhat better than the same rating for XOM (88). This means that SU’s stock grew somewhat faster than XOM’s over the last 12 months.
XOM's Profit vs Risk Rating (5) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as SU (8). This means that XOM’s stock grew similarly to SU’s over the last 12 months.
SU's SMR Rating (48) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as XOM (62). This means that SU’s stock grew similarly to XOM’s over the last 12 months.
XOM's Price Growth Rating (26) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as SU (39). This means that XOM’s stock grew similarly to SU’s over the last 12 months.
XOM's P/E Growth Rating (16) in the Integrated Oil industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SU (81). This means that XOM’s stock grew somewhat faster than SU’s over the last 12 months.
| SU | XOM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 54% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 50% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 43% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 43% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 64% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 69% | 9 days ago 63% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 44% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 87% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 62% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
SU’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while XOM’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- SU’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- XOM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
SU’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while XOM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- SU’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- XOM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
SU (@Integrated Oil) experienced а -13.45% price change this week, while XOM (@Integrated Oil) price change was -11.42% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Integrated Oil industry was -11.78%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -7.06%, and the average quarterly price growth was -0.65%.
Reported Earning Dates
SU is expected to report earnings on Feb 03, 2027.
XOM is expected to report earnings on Feb 02, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Integrated Oil (-11.78% weekly)Integrated oil companies are involved across nearly the entire oil value chain – from upstream operations like exploration and production, to downstream functions of refining and marketing. Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation and BP are major integrated oil companies. Their bottom lines’ response to crude oil prices could depend on the proportion of upstream vs. downstream businesses; for example, if a company has substantial downstream business, the adverse impact on their upstream business due to falling crude prices could be mitigated by benefits to its downstream business.
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SU and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SU has been closely correlated with CVE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SU jumps, then CVE could also see price increases.