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IMO vs XOM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Imperial Oil (IMO) vs. Exxon Mobil (XOM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- IMO and XOM are both integrated energy majors, but Imperial Oil is a Canada-focused subsidiary in which ExxonMobil holds a majority stake.
- Exxon Mobil is far larger, with a roughly $670 billion market capitalization versus Imperial Oil's approximately $60 billion.
- Both stocks have posted strong gains in 2026, driven by elevated crude prices and geopolitical supply risks.
- Exxon Mobil offers broader global diversification and record Permian and Guyana output, while Imperial Oil leans heavily on Canadian oil sands and refining.
- Imperial Oil has a 31-year dividend-increase streak; Exxon Mobil has raised its dividend for 43 consecutive years.
- Valuation, beta (volatility), and geographic concentration create distinct risk profiles for each name.
Introduction
Investors evaluating energy exposure often weigh a diversified global supermajor against a high-returning, regionally concentrated integrated producer. That is precisely the comparison presented by IMO (Imperial Oil Limited) and XOM (Exxon Mobil Corporation). Both operate across the upstream, refining, and chemicals value chain, and both have benefited from a supportive crude-price environment in recent months. Yet their scale, geographic footprint, growth drivers, and risk profiles differ meaningfully. This stock comparison examines recent performance, business positioning, and market sentiment to help traders and long-term investors understand the relative trade-offs between the two.
IMO Overview and Recent Performance
IMO is one of Canada's largest integrated energy companies, operating through Upstream, Downstream, and Chemical segments with major oil sands assets such as Kearl, Cold Lake, and Syncrude. It is majority-owned by ExxonMobil, which provides strategic alignment and access to technology. Over recent market activity, Imperial Oil has delivered strong shareholder returns, with the stock up roughly 45% year to date and trading near the upper portion of its 52-week range.
Recent results have been robust. In its second-quarter report, Imperial Oil posted net income of C$2.19 billion and operating cash flow above C$2.7 billion, supported by higher commodity prices and stronger refining margins. The company completed the Kearl turnaround ahead of schedule and under budget and is targeting roughly 300,000 barrels per day and unit costs near $18 per barrel by 2027. However, unplanned downtime at Syncrude and softer downstream throughput led management to trim full-year refining guidance by about 6%. Sentiment has been influenced by oil sands cost progress, a 31-year dividend-growth streak, and an accelerated share-repurchase program, balanced against commodity-price sensitivity and Canadian heavy-oil differentials.
XOM Overview and Recent Performance
XOM is the world's largest publicly traded integrated energy company, with operations spanning upstream production, refining, chemicals, and specialty products across the United States and internationally. Its advantaged portfolio is anchored by the Permian Basin, where production reached a record above 1.8 million oil-equivalent barrels per day (boe/d), and offshore Guyana, where output approached 900,000 barrels per day. Over recent market activity, Exxon Mobil has outperformed the broader market, gaining more than 30% year to date.
Recent earnings have been strong despite external disruptions. In its second quarter, Exxon Mobil reported roughly $14.5 billion in earnings and more than $23 billion in operating cash flow, even as Middle East supply disruptions temporarily reduced upstream volumes. The company has achieved about $16.3 billion in cumulative structural cost savings since 2019 and is executing a plan to repurchase up to $20 billion of shares in 2026. With a 43-year dividend-increase record and a low net-debt-to-capital ratio, Exxon Mobil offers scale, balance-sheet strength, and global diversification, while remaining exposed to commodity cycles, project execution risk, and geopolitical volatility.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two names is scale and diversification. XOM is a global supermajor with production across multiple continents, exposure to liquified natural gas (LNG), chemicals, and low-carbon projects, and the financial capacity to fund large capital programs. IMO is a Canada-centric integrated producer whose earnings are more directly tied to Canadian oil sands economics, the WTI/WCS spread (the price gap between U.S. light crude and Canadian heavy crude), and domestic refining margins.
Growth drivers also differ. Exxon Mobil's momentum is tied to record Permian volumes, Guyana's free-cash-flow inflection, and structural cost savings. Imperial Oil's outlook hinges on Kearl reliability, cost reductions toward $18 per barrel, and long-dated growth options such as the Aspen project. On risk, Imperial Oil carries a higher beta (a measure of volatility versus the broader market), reflecting its concentration in a single geography and commodity mix, while Exxon Mobil's beta is notably lower, consistent with its diversified earnings base. In terms of valuation, both trade at similar forward earnings multiples, though Imperial Oil's smaller float and majority ownership by ExxonMobil can influence trading dynamics. Market sentiment has favored both names in a rising-price environment, but Exxon Mobil's global reach and capital-return scale offer a different risk-reward profile than Imperial Oil's focused, high-cash-yield operation.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, relative stability, and catalyst visibility, Tickeron's AI would likely favor XOM in the current environment. Exxon Mobil combines a diversified, multi-basin production base, a record output trajectory in the Permian and Guyana, a stronger balance sheet, and a lower beta, all of which suggest more consistent trend behavior and greater resilience to single-region disruptions. IMO presents compelling cash-generation and cost-improvement characteristics, but its concentration in Canadian oil sands and refining introduces greater commodity and regional sensitivity. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive and should be evaluated alongside each investor's individual objectives and risk tolerance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is IMO is a StrongBuy and XOM is a Buy.
IMO's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for IMO turned positive on October 12, 2026. Looking at past instances where IMO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on IMO as a result. In 55 of 75 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
IMO moved above its 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for IMO crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
Following a +4.36% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where IMO advanced for three days, in 265 of 364 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for IMO moved out of overbought territory on October 22, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 52 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 34 of the 52 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 65%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where IMO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
IMO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 16, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for IMO entered a downward trend on October 16, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 26, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. IMO’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 63 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: IMO's P/B Ratio (2.656) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.687). P/E Ratio (15.711) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.303). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.090) is also within normal values, averaging (1.088). Dividend Yield (0.019) settles around the average of (0.047) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.763) is also within normal values, averaging (3.764).
XOM in +2.88% Uptrend, advancing for three consecutive days on October 23, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where XOM advanced for three days, in 231 of 372 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 01, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on XOM as a result. In 55 of 91 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for XOM just turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where XOM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 192 of 312 cases where XOM Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 62%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 9 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 16 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XOM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 44%.
XOM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 26, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. XOM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: XOM's P/B Ratio (2.904) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.687). XOM has a moderately high P/E Ratio (23.579) as compared to the industry average of (11.303). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.392) is also within normal values, averaging (1.088). Dividend Yield (0.022) settles around the average of (0.047) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.911) is also within normal values, averaging (3.764).
IMO | XOM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 34 | 43 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 63 Fair valued | 85 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 4 | 4 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 52 | 62 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 42 | 9 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 26 | 13 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
IMO's Valuation (63) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as XOM (85). This means that IMO’s stock grew similarly to XOM’s over the last 12 months.
IMO's Profit vs Risk Rating (4) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as XOM (4). This means that IMO’s stock grew similarly to XOM’s over the last 12 months.
IMO's SMR Rating (52) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as XOM (62). This means that IMO’s stock grew similarly to XOM’s over the last 12 months.
XOM's Price Growth Rating (9) in the Integrated Oil industry is somewhat better than the same rating for IMO (42). This means that XOM’s stock grew somewhat faster than IMO’s over the last 12 months.
XOM's P/E Growth Rating (13) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as IMO (26). This means that XOM’s stock grew similarly to IMO’s over the last 12 months.
| IMO | XOM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 54% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 52% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 60% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 60% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 64% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 73% | 1 day ago 62% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 18 days ago 60% | 5 days ago 44% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 38% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 44% | 1 day ago 62% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
IMO’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while XOM’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- IMO’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- XOM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
IMO’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while XOM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- IMO’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- XOM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
IMO (@Integrated Oil) experienced а +0.66% price change this week, while XOM (@Integrated Oil) price change was +2.36% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Integrated Oil industry was +0.36%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +6.57%, and the average quarterly price growth was +12.54%.
Reported Earning Dates
IMO is expected to report earnings on Oct 30, 2026.
XOM is expected to report earnings on Oct 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Integrated Oil (+0.36% weekly)Integrated oil companies are involved across nearly the entire oil value chain – from upstream operations like exploration and production, to downstream functions of refining and marketing. Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation and BP are major integrated oil companies. Their bottom lines’ response to crude oil prices could depend on the proportion of upstream vs. downstream businesses; for example, if a company has substantial downstream business, the adverse impact on their upstream business due to falling crude prices could be mitigated by benefits to its downstream business.
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IMO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, IMO has been closely correlated with CVE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 81% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if IMO jumps, then CVE could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To IMO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMO | 100% | +2.25% | ||
| CVE - IMO | 81% Closely correlated | +2.72% | ||
| SU - IMO | 81% Closely correlated | +2.54% | ||
| BP - IMO | 65% Loosely correlated | +2.54% | ||
| SHEL - IMO | 64% Loosely correlated | +2.25% | ||
| EQNR - IMO | 64% Loosely correlated | +5.17% | ||
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XOM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, XOM has been closely correlated with CVX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if XOM jumps, then CVX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To XOM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | 100% | +2.79% | ||
| CVX - XOM | 83% Closely correlated | +2.88% | ||
| EQNR - XOM | 74% Closely correlated | +5.17% | ||
| BP - XOM | 71% Closely correlated | +2.54% | ||
| CRGY - XOM | 69% Closely correlated | +3.75% | ||
| SHEL - XOM | 69% Closely correlated | +2.25% | ||
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