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DEO vs STZ
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Diageo (DEO) vs. Constellation Brands (STZ) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Diageo (DEO) is a globally diversified premium spirits and beer group, while Constellation Brands (STZ) is a U.S.-focused, beer-led alcohol company.
- Both stocks face industry headwinds, but from different drivers: DEO is contending with weak U.S. spirits and tequila demand, while STZ is rebuilding beer momentum.
- DEO is undergoing a cost-cutting turnaround under new leadership; STZ recently beat earnings expectations and reaffirmed its full-year outlook.
- DEO trades at a lower forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple and carries a very low beta, while STZ holds a consensus "Buy" rating with notable upside targets.
- Relative performance diverged recently: DEO has lagged its sector, while STZ snapped a multi-week losing streak on improving September trends.
Introduction
Both DEO and STZ operate in the global beverage-alcohol market, yet they represent distinct investment profiles. Diageo is the world's largest premium spirits producer, spanning scotch, tequila, vodka, and beer across dozens of countries. Constellation Brands is a more concentrated, U.S.-centric business dominated by imported Mexican beer brands such as Modelo, Corona, and Pacifico. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing a diversified, defensive consumer staples name against a higher-conviction, beer-led growth story. By examining recent performance, sentiment shifts, and market positioning, traders can better assess how these two companies compare in the current environment.
DEO Overview and Recent Performance
Diageo's portfolio includes Johnnie Walker, Crown Royal, Smirnoff, Captain Morgan, Don Julio, Casamigos, Tanqueray, and Guinness. In recent quarters, the company has been navigating a difficult backdrop, with organic net sales pressured by softness in North America and continued weakness in Chinese white spirits. U.S. spirits have been a particular drag, especially tequila, where category softness and increased competition weighed on Don Julio and Casamigos.
Against this backdrop, Diageo has launched a restructuring effort under new CEO Sir Dave Lewis, cutting its dividend, trimming its fiscal 2026 outlook, and pursuing cost savings through its "Accelerate" program. Organic operating profit still grew modestly, and margins expanded, while free cash flow improved. The stock has lagged its broader sector in recent market activity, reflecting investor caution about the timing of a U.S. recovery, although its global diversification and low volatility profile continue to attract defensive interest.
STZ Overview and Recent Performance
Constellation Brands is a beer-led company, with its beer segment accounting for roughly nine-tenths of revenue. Its flagship labels include Modelo, Corona, and Pacifico, supplemented by a smaller wine and spirits business that has been downsized through recent divestitures. In its latest reported quarter, the company beat revenue and adjusted earnings-per-share (EPS) expectations, driven by stronger beer shipments and effective marketing investments.
Management reaffirmed its fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS guidance and indicated that continued improvement in September trends could allow results to land near the high end of the range. The company also agreed to acquire SpikedAde, a spirit-based ready-to-drink (RTD) brand, signaling a push into faster-growing convenience formats. Despite these positive signals, the stock has declined year-to-date and only recently snapped a prolonged weekly losing streak, as investors weigh softer core-brand depletions and tariff-related cost pressures against improving momentum.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ sharply in business model and geographic exposure. Diageo is a diversified global operator with scale across spirits categories and regions, giving it resilience but also exposing it to structural moderation trends in mature markets. Constellation Brands is far more concentrated, with the bulk of its results tied to imported Mexican beer in the United States, making it more sensitive to domestic consumer trends, tariffs, and distributor dynamics.
On growth drivers, DEO is leaning on cost discipline and innovation in faster-growing categories such as ready-to-drink products and non-alcoholic options, while STZ is focused on reigniting beer growth through marketing, brand execution, and RTD expansion. Risk profiles also diverge: DEO faces earnings-reset and balance-sheet leverage concerns, whereas STZ faces concentration risk and lingering questions about whether its recent sales rebound is durable. In terms of market sentiment, DEO trades at a lower forward P/E multiple and carries a very low beta, while STZ commands a consensus "Buy" rating with substantial average analyst price-target upside, reflecting optimism about a cyclical recovery.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor Constellation Brands over Diageo in the current market environment. STZ's recent earnings beat, reaffirmed guidance, improving sequential trends, and stronger relative momentum present a more constructive near-term signal than DEO's ongoing restructuring and weaker U.S. spirits backdrop. That said, the verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: DEO's global diversification, defensive characteristics, and valuation discount could appeal if market volatility persists or if its turnaround gains traction. The AI would likely monitor both tickers for confirmation of trend consistency and stability before committing to a directional bias.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is DEO is a Hold and STZ is a Hold.
DEO's RSI Oscillator stays in overbought zone for 1 day
Watch for a price pull-back in the near future.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 10 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DEO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
DEO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for DEO entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on DEO as a result. In 49 of 87 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for DEO just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where DEO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 24 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
DEO moved above its 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for DEO crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
Following a +4.72% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DEO advanced for three days, in 115 of 274 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 42%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. DEO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.908) is normal, around the industry mean (4.882). P/E Ratio (30.720) is within average values for comparable stocks, (63.215). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.545) is also within normal values, averaging (0.650). Dividend Yield (0.049) settles around the average of (0.079) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.469) is also within normal values, averaging (4.786).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. DEO’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 100, placing this stock worse than average.
STZ's RSI Indicator stays in overbought zone for 9 days
The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where STZ declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
STZ broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for STZ entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 07, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on STZ as a result. In 49 of 95 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for STZ just turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where STZ's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 21 of 41 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
STZ moved above its 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for STZ crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Following a +3.09% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where STZ advanced for three days, in 158 of 306 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. STZ’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 64 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: STZ's P/B Ratio (2.869) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.299). P/E Ratio (13.183) is within average values for comparable stocks, (0.259). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.436) is also within normal values, averaging (2.082). Dividend Yield (0.030) settles around the average of (0.037) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.366) is also within normal values, averaging (1.539).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 81 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to slightly better than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. STZ’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 71, placing this stock worse than average.
DEO | STZ | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 19 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 75 Overvalued | 64 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 98 | 42 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 40 | 43 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 14 | 81 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
STZ's Valuation (64) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry is in the same range as DEO (75). This means that STZ’s stock grew similarly to DEO’s over the last 12 months.
STZ's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry is in the same range as DEO (100). This means that STZ’s stock grew similarly to DEO’s over the last 12 months.
STZ's SMR Rating (42) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry is somewhat better than the same rating for DEO (98). This means that STZ’s stock grew somewhat faster than DEO’s over the last 12 months.
DEO's Price Growth Rating (40) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry is in the same range as STZ (43). This means that DEO’s stock grew similarly to STZ’s over the last 12 months.
DEO's P/E Growth Rating (14) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry is significantly better than the same rating for STZ (81). This means that DEO’s stock grew significantly faster than STZ’s over the last 12 months.
| DEO | STZ | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 90% | 4 days ago 67% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 57% | 4 days ago 61% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 56% | 4 days ago 52% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 56% | 4 days ago 51% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 48% | 4 days ago 52% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 45% | 4 days ago 45% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 42% | 11 days ago 52% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 60% | 25 days ago 61% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 76% | 4 days ago 61% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 53% | 4 days ago 43% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DEO’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while STZ’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- DEO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- STZ’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DEO’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while STZ’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DEO’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- STZ’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
DEO (@Beverages: Alcoholic) experienced а +0.90% price change this week, while STZ (@Food: Meat/Fish/Dairy) price change was +5.58% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Beverages: Alcoholic industry was +0.49%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.29%, and the average quarterly price growth was -20.71%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food: Meat/Fish/Dairy industry was +3.07%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +10.95%, and the average quarterly price growth was +2.18%.
Reported Earning Dates
DEO is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
STZ is expected to report earnings on Jan 07, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Beverages: Alcoholic (+0.49% weekly)The alcoholic beverage market includes beer, wine, and spirits. From $230 billion in 2015, the industry has grown to around $250 billion by 2019. In recent years, alcoholic beverage makers have been looking to expand distribution and purchase channels, such as through online stores (e.g. e-commerce platform Drizly) and convenience stores. Anheuser-Busch In Bev and Diageo are major global alcoholic beverage companies, while U.S.-owned companies include Constellation Brands and Brown-Forman Corp. among several others.
@Food: Meat/Fish/Dairy (+3.07% weekly)The meat, fish, and dairy food industry processes livestock, fish and milk products for consumer consumption. Some companies also process dairy byproducts. Tyson Foods, Inc., Hormel Foods Corporation and Pilgrims Pride Corp. are some of the biggest producers in this industry. Many of these companies are recipients of American farm subsidies. On the other hand, new-age food innovation like plant-based meat substitutes (which are designed to simulate chicken, beef, and pork sausage) could potentially augur disruptions and/or create new competition in this space.
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STZ and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, STZ has been loosely correlated with TAP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 55% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if STZ jumps, then TAP could also see price increases.