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DG vs TGT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Dollar General (DG) vs. Target (TGT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- DG has surged over 115% in the past year, vastly outperforming TGT's modest 2.85% gain, driven by strong discount retail demand.
- Recent market activity shows DG up 6-9% in the past month with YTD gains of 18%, slightly ahead of TGT's 17% YTD amid upcoming earnings anticipation.
- TGT offers a higher dividend yield at 4.01% compared to DG's 1.51%, appealing to income-focused investors.
- Analyst price targets suggest DG at around $146 (Hold consensus) and TGT at $107 (Hold), indicating potential upside for both but relative stability in valuations.
- DG benefits from potential tariff refunds and turnaround momentum, while TGT faces sales decline expectations ahead of Q4 results.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines DG (Dollar General Corporation) and TGT (Target Corporation), two prominent discount retailers navigating a value-oriented consumer environment. Both operate in the competitive retail-wholesale sector, where shifting spending patterns favor affordability amid economic pressures. Traders seeking momentum plays may eye recent price trends, while long-term investors could weigh valuations, dividends, and growth prospects. This analysis highlights relative performance, business drivers, and market positioning to inform stock comparison decisions in today's dynamic market.
DG Overview and Recent Performance
Dollar General Corporation (DG), a leading discount retailer with over 20,000 small-box stores targeting rural and underserved areas, focuses on consumables, household essentials, and seasonal goods. In recent market activity, DG shares have shown robust momentum, climbing approximately 6-9% over the past month and 18% year-to-date, with a staggering 115% one-year gain. This outperformance stems from accelerated top-line growth, potential tariff refunds following legal developments, and analyst upgrades signaling turnaround progress. Valuation debates persist, with some models viewing the stock as undervalued by up to 13.6%, bolstered by a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and raised price targets like Guggenheim's $165. Sentiment has shifted positively on operational efficiencies and resilience in discount demand.
TGT Overview and Recent Performance
Target Corporation (TGT), a general merchandise giant with large-format stores emphasizing apparel, groceries, and home goods, serves a broader demographic through omnichannel strategies. Recent weeks have seen TGT shares rise about 9% monthly and 17% year-to-date, rebounding from prior declines amid strategic shifts like leadership changes and product adjustments such as removing synthetic colors. However, one-year returns lag at around 3%, reflecting softer comparable sales expectations and anticipated Q4 revenue dips of 1-2%. Analyst sentiment remains mixed with a Hold consensus and average targets near $107, supported by Wells Fargo's recent overweight raise to $130, though earnings pressures weigh on momentum. Performance reflects broader retail challenges balanced by value initiatives.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
DG and TGT both thrive in discount retail but diverge in scale and focus: DG's rural small-box model ($34B market cap) emphasizes essentials for budget shoppers, while TGT's urban/suburban big-box approach ($52B cap) blends staples with discretionary items. Growth drivers contrast with DG riding 40%+ three-month surges from store expansions and tariff tailwinds versus TGT's recovery via traffic boosts but sales headwinds. Recent momentum favors DG (P/E 27 vs. TGT's 14), though TGT counters with superior yield (4% vs. 1.5%). Risks include DG's valuation stretch and competition, against TGT's margin squeezes; sentiment leans bullish on DG's consistency amid value shifts.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors DG over TGT, based on superior trend consistency, explosive relative momentum (115% vs. 3% one-year), and catalysts like analyst upgrades and potential refunds. While TGT shows stability and yield appeal, DG's positioning in resilient discount demand suggests higher probability of near-term outperformance in this market environment.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is DG is a Hold and TGT is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DG’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileTGT’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- DG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TGT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DG’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TGT’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TGT’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
DG (@Discount Stores) experienced а -9.63% price change this week, while TGT (@Discount Stores) price change was -2.05% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Discount Stores industry was +0.75%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.06%, and the average quarterly price growth was +7.32%.
Reported Earning Dates
DG is expected to report earnings on Jun 02, 2026.
TGT is expected to report earnings on May 20, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Discount Stores (+0.75% weekly)Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.
| DG | TGT | DG / TGT | |
| Capitalization | 22.5B | 55.2B | 41% |
| EBITDA | 3.24B | 8.35B | 39% |
| Gain YTD | -22.193 | 26.789 | -83% |
| P/E Ratio | 14.95 | 14.95 | 100% |
| Revenue | 42.7B | 105B | 41% |
| Total Cash | 1.14B | 250M | 456% |
| Total Debt | 15.7B | 20.3B | 77% |
DG | TGT | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 30 Undervalued | 27 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 47 | 40 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 64 | 45 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 69 | 20 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TGT's Valuation (27) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as DG (30) in the Discount Stores industry. This means that TGT’s stock grew similarly to DG’s over the last 12 months.
TGT's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as DG (100) in the Discount Stores industry. This means that TGT’s stock grew similarly to DG’s over the last 12 months.
TGT's SMR Rating (40) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as DG (47) in the Discount Stores industry. This means that TGT’s stock grew similarly to DG’s over the last 12 months.
TGT's Price Growth Rating (45) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as DG (64) in the Discount Stores industry. This means that TGT’s stock grew similarly to DG’s over the last 12 months.
TGT's P/E Growth Rating (20) in the Specialty Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for DG (69) in the Discount Stores industry. This means that TGT’s stock grew somewhat faster than DG’s over the last 12 months.
| DG | TGT | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 88% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 64% | 4 days ago 66% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 68% | 4 days ago 68% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 67% | 4 days ago 78% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 65% | 4 days ago 68% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 68% | 4 days ago 67% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 62% | 5 days ago 67% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 63% | 8 days ago 63% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 55% | 4 days ago 57% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 61% | 4 days ago 58% |
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DG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DG has been loosely correlated with DLTR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 55% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if DG jumps, then DLTR could also see price increases.
TGT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TGT has been loosely correlated with DLTR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 33% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if TGT jumps, then DLTR could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TGT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TGT | 100% | -1.25% | ||
| DLTR - TGT | 33% Loosely correlated | -0.43% | ||
| DG - TGT | 31% Poorly correlated | -2.54% | ||
| OLLI - TGT | 26% Poorly correlated | -0.33% | ||
| PSMT - TGT | 26% Poorly correlated | -0.30% | ||
| COST - TGT | 24% Poorly correlated | +0.74% | ||
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