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DHI vs TOL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? D.R. Horton (DHI) vs. Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- DHI is the largest U.S. homebuilder by volume with an entry-level, affordability-focused model, while TOL serves the luxury and move-up segment with a far higher average selling price.
- Both stocks are contending with elevated mortgage rates and softening builder sentiment, but their order trends have diverged: TOL is growing net signed contracts while DHI recently reported a decline in orders.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: TOL — the AI would currently favor Toll Brothers based on more resilient order momentum, higher margins, and a less rate-sensitive buyer base.
- For more detail, explore DHI Major News and DHI Today's Price Move, as well as TOL Major News and TOL Today's Price Move.
- Discover how automated strategies are navigating this market by exploring Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Homebuilders occupy a unique corner of the market, sitting at the intersection of consumer demand, interest rates, and the broader economy. Comparing DHI (D.R. Horton, Inc.) and TOL (Toll Brothers, Inc.) offers a clear lens on two very different strategies within the same sector: one built on high-volume, affordable homes and the other on premium, luxury residences. This stock comparison is particularly relevant for investors and traders seeking to understand how rate-sensitive entry-level demand contrasts with more affluent, cash-heavy buying behavior. Examining their relative performance, market positioning, and recent momentum can help clarify which name currently demonstrates stronger trend consistency in a challenging housing environment.
DHI Overview and Recent Performance
DHI, headquartered in Arlington, Texas, has been America's largest homebuilder by volume for more than two decades, operating across 126 markets in 36 states. Its model emphasizes affordability, with recent average closing prices roughly 27% below the national average for new homes and a strong tilt toward first-time buyers. In recent market activity, DHI has faced headwinds from mortgage rates holding above 7%, which have pressured affordability and buyer sentiment. The company's latest quarterly results showed net sales orders declining on a year-over-year basis, a cancellation rate that rose, and compressed pre-tax margins. Management also guided toward modestly lower home closings for the coming year while continuing to lean on sales incentives such as mortgage-rate buydowns. These factors have contributed to a cautious tone around the stock in recent weeks.
TOL Overview and Recent Performance
TOL brands itself as America's luxury homebuilder, focusing on the move-up and high-end segments where average delivered prices now exceed $1 million. In recent quarters, the company has expanded its community count meaningfully and posted growth in net signed contracts, supported by a buyer base that is less sensitive to mortgage-rate swings — roughly a quarter of its customers pay in cash. While TOL has also experienced margin pressure and some inventory-related impairments, its adjusted gross margin remains well above that of volume-oriented builders. Management has reaffirmed full-year guidance, citing resilience among affluent customers and ongoing geographic expansion, including entry into new markets. This relatively steadier demand backdrop has supported the stock's positioning even as broader homebuilder sentiment has weakened.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron maintains hundreds of AI trading bots that collectively monitor and trade thousands of different tickers, each operating with its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, and performance statistics. Because not every bot suits every market regime, Tickeron curates a focused Trending AI Robots section highlighting the strategies best aligned with current conditions. These automated systems analyze price action, trend signals, and volatility patterns to identify setups across names like DHI and TOL. For traders interested in a systematic approach to stock selection, exploring the Trending AI Robots page can offer a data-driven view of which strategies are currently performing and which tickers they favor.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two builders is their target customer and price point. DHI competes on scale and affordability, which makes its demand more directly tied to mortgage rates and first-time-buyer affordability; when rates climb, its buyers are quicker to delay or cancel purchases. TOL, by comparison, serves wealthier buyers with greater home equity and income, insulating it from some rate sensitivity but exposing it to luxury-market cyclicality and higher per-home costs. On growth, TOL has demonstrated stronger recent order momentum and is expanding its community footprint, whereas DHI has signaled a pullback in near-term closings. On profitability, TOL carries a notably higher gross margin profile, while DHI offsets thinner margins with far greater volume and a substantial share-repurchase program. Risk factors include interest-rate volatility for both, plus inventory impairments and elevated incentives for DHI.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, order momentum, margin stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor TOL in the current environment. Toll Brothers has maintained growing net signed contracts, a higher and more resilient gross margin, and a customer base less exposed to rising mortgage rates, all of which support a steadier relative trend. In contrast, DHI has shown declining orders, rising cancellations, and lower near-term guidance. While DHI remains a dominant, well-capitalized operator with strong long-term fundamentals, the current momentum and catalyst profile appear comparatively more constructive for TOL. This assessment reflects probabilistic analysis rather than a definitive prediction.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is DHI is a Buy and TOL is a Buy.
DHI in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026
The 10-day moving average for DHI crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on DHI as a result. In 60 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for DHI just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where DHI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
DHI moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +8.54% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DHI advanced for three days, in 192 of 300 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 42 of 59 cases where DHI's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DHI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
DHI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for DHI entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. DHI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 78 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.788) is normal, around the industry mean (1.910). P/E Ratio (14.475) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.171) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.205) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
TOL in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026
The 10-day moving average for TOL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TOL as a result. In 59 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TOL just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where TOL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 41 of 55 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
TOL moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +6.29% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TOL advanced for three days, in 217 of 314 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for TOL moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 24 of the 44 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 55%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 39 of 66 cases where TOL's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TOL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
TOL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TOL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 70 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.648) is normal, around the industry mean (1.910). P/E Ratio (12.205) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.880) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.184) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
DHI | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 20 | 25 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 78 Overvalued | 70 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 49 | 35 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 62 | 58 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 28 | 41 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 25 | 19 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TOL's Valuation (70) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as DHI (78). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to DHI’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Profit vs Risk Rating (35) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as DHI (49). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to DHI’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's SMR Rating (58) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as DHI (62). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to DHI’s over the last 12 months.
DHI's Price Growth Rating (28) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (41). This means that DHI’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's P/E Growth Rating (19) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as DHI (25). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to DHI’s over the last 12 months.
| DHI | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 55% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 59% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 69% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 75% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 64% | 10 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 17 days ago 63% | 6 days ago 60% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | N/A |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DHI’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while TOL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- DHI’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DHI’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TOL’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DHI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
DHI (@Homebuilding) experienced а +3.08% price change this week, while TOL (@Homebuilding) price change was +1.98% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was -6.47%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.55%, and the average quarterly price growth was +10.32%.
Reported Earning Dates
DHI is expected to report earnings on Jan 26, 2027.
TOL is expected to report earnings on Dec 14, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (-6.47% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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DHI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DHI has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 93% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if DHI jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.