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DHI vs NVR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? D.R. Horton (DHI) vs. NVR (NVR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- DHI has delivered stronger year-to-date performance at 6.77% compared to NVR's 2.68%, reflecting greater momentum in recent market activity.
- DHI trades at a lower price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 13.95 versus NVR's 16.26, suggesting better relative valuation.
- Both companies face headwinds from high interest rates, with recent quarterly revenue declines of 9.5% for DHI and 5% for NVR.
- NVR boasts superior return on equity (ROE) at 33.19% compared to DHI's 13.48%, highlighting operational efficiency.
- DHI's larger market cap of approximately $44 billion dwarfs NVR's $20 billion, indicating broader scale.
- Sector sentiment points to potential relief from interest rate cuts, benefiting homebuilders like both stocks amid housing market pressures.
Introduction
DHI and NVR, two prominent players in the U.S. homebuilding sector, offer investors exposure to residential construction amid fluctuating mortgage rates and housing demand. This stock comparison analyzes their business models, recent performance, and market positioning in the current high-interest-rate environment. Traders seeking sector rotation opportunities or long-term investors evaluating homebuilder resilience will find value in understanding their contrasts, including scale differences and operational efficiencies. With both navigating affordability challenges, relative performance insights aid informed decision-making in volatile markets.
DHI Overview and Recent Performance
D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI) stands as the largest U.S. homebuilder by volume, operating in 126 markets across 36 states. It constructs single-family homes, townhomes, and duplexes while providing mortgage financing and title services. In recent weeks, DHI reported first-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $7.56 billion, slightly missing estimates, and lowered full-year guidance to $34 billion due to softer demand. Despite this, shares rose about 2.5% post-earnings, buoyed by hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts and stabilizing energy costs. Year-to-date gains reached 6.77%, outperforming the sector amid broader market volatility, though analyst targets were trimmed on housing weakness concerns. Sentiment reflects resilience in a challenging affordability landscape, with a beta of 1.45 indicating higher market sensitivity.
NVR Overview and Recent Performance
NVR, Inc. (NVR) focuses on single-family detached homes, townhomes, and condos under brands like Ryan Homes and NVHomes, serving markets in the Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, and Southeast. Known for its asset-light model—avoiding land ownership—it emphasizes efficiency through mortgage banking and title services. Recent market activity shows cautious sentiment ahead of earnings, with shares underperforming peers on some sessions amid margin pressures and macroeconomic headwinds. Year-to-date returns stand at 2.68%, lagging broader indices, though lower beta of 1.07 signals relative stability. Analysts highlight ongoing challenges from elevated rates impacting buyer affordability, contributing to recent share price weakness despite strong historical profitability.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both DHI and NVR operate in homebuilding but differ in scale and structure: DHI pursues volume through land ownership and nationwide presence, while NVR employs an asset-light approach in select regions, yielding higher profit margins (12.84% vs. 9.95%) and ROE. Growth drivers include potential rate relief, but high mortgage rates have pressured orders, evident in recent revenue dips. Momentum favors DHI with superior YTD returns and lower PE, positioning it as a value play; NVR trades at a premium price-to-book ratio of 5.03. Risk factors encompass interest-rate sensitivity—DHI more volatile—and inventory exposure. Market sentiment views DHI as the better value option currently.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI models would likely favor DHI over NVR in the near term, driven by stronger trend consistency, YTD outperformance, and attractive valuation metrics like a lower PE ratio amid resilient post-earnings momentum. NVR offers stability through higher ROE and margins, but DHI's scale and relative positioning provide a probabilistic edge in a potential rate-cut scenario.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is DHI is a StrongBuy and NVR is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DHI’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileNVR’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- DHI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- NVR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DHI’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NVR’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DHI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- NVR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
DHI (@Homebuilding) experienced а +5.83% price change this week, while NVR (@Homebuilding) price change was +3.11% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was +2.75%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +13.84%, and the average quarterly price growth was +2.08%.
Reported Earning Dates
DHI is expected to report earnings on Jul 21, 2026.
NVR is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (+2.75% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
| DHI | NVR | DHI / NVR | |
| Capitalization | 43.7B | 17.2B | 254% |
| EBITDA | 4.03B | 1.67B | 242% |
| Gain YTD | 7.614 | -12.586 | -61% |
| P/E Ratio | 14.47 | 15.57 | 93% |
| Revenue | 33.3B | 9.82B | 339% |
| Total Cash | 1.92B | 1.68B | 114% |
| Total Debt | 6.63B | 1.05B | 632% |
DHI | NVR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 69 | 35 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 62 Fair valued | 70 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 56 | 77 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 63 | 31 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 55 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 18 | 49 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
DHI's Valuation (62) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as NVR (70). This means that DHI’s stock grew similarly to NVR’s over the last 12 months.
DHI's Profit vs Risk Rating (56) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as NVR (77). This means that DHI’s stock grew similarly to NVR’s over the last 12 months.
NVR's SMR Rating (31) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as DHI (63). This means that NVR’s stock grew similarly to DHI’s over the last 12 months.
DHI's Price Growth Rating (47) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as NVR (55). This means that DHI’s stock grew similarly to NVR’s over the last 12 months.
DHI's P/E Growth Rating (18) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as NVR (49). This means that DHI’s stock grew similarly to NVR’s over the last 12 months.
| DHI | NVR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 4 days ago 49% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 58% | 4 days ago 53% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 71% | 4 days ago 69% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 66% | 4 days ago 66% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 65% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 68% | 4 days ago 66% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 20 days ago 66% | 8 days ago 60% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 63% | 21 days ago 53% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 61% | 4 days ago 55% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 60% | 4 days ago 63% |
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DHI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DHI has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 92% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if DHI jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.
NVR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NVR has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NVR jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.