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DHI vs NVR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? D.R. Horton (DHI) vs. NVR, Inc. (NVR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- D.R. Horton and NVR are two of America's most prominent homebuilders, yet they operate with starkly different business models — one prioritizing scale and affordability, the other capital efficiency and risk avoidance.
- D.R. Horton is the largest homebuilder by volume in the U.S., closing over 84,000 homes in fiscal 2025, while NVR operates at roughly one-quarter of that scale but consistently delivers industry-leading margins and return on equity (ROE).
- Both companies have faced earnings compression in recent quarters as affordability challenges and cautious consumer sentiment weigh on new home demand across the sector.
- NVR's unique land-light strategy — acquiring finished lots through purchase agreements rather than owning raw land — gives it a fortress balance sheet and superior downside protection in a cyclical industry.
- D.R. Horton's aggressive share repurchase program (over $4.3 billion in fiscal 2025) and expanding rental operations signal a management team committed to returning capital and diversifying revenue streams.
- From a valuation standpoint, D.R. Horton trades at a lower forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple, but NVR commands a premium that reflects its structurally higher profitability and lower risk profile.
Introduction
For investors evaluating the U.S. homebuilding sector, DHI and NVR represent two fundamentally different approaches to capturing value in residential construction. D.R. Horton, the nation's largest homebuilder by closings, pursues a high-volume, nationally diversified strategy aimed at the entry-level and first-time move-up buyer. NVR, by contrast, takes a deliberately capital-light approach, using lot purchase agreements and maintaining a concentrated geographic footprint to generate superior returns on invested capital (ROIC). With mortgage rates remaining elevated and consumer confidence under pressure, this comparison helps traders and long-term investors assess which business model may prove more resilient across the housing cycle.
DHI Overview and Recent Performance
DHI — D.R. Horton, Inc., branded as "America's Builder" — has been the largest U.S. homebuilder by volume since 2002. Headquartered in Arlington, Texas, the company operates across 126 markets in 36 states and offers homes at price points generally ranging from $250,000 to over $1,000,000. Its diverse brand portfolio includes D.R. Horton, Express Homes, Emerald Homes, and Freedom Homes. The company also operates a mortgage financing arm, title services, and a majority stake in Forestar Group, a publicly traded residential lot development company.
In its most recently reported quarter — the first quarter of fiscal 2026 ended December 31, 2025 — D.R. Horton posted consolidated revenues of $6.9 billion and earnings of $2.03 per diluted share. While both figures declined year over year (revenues fell roughly 9.5% and EPS dropped 22%), the company exceeded analyst estimates on both the top and bottom lines. Net sales orders increased 3% to 18,300 homes, a welcome sign of stabilizing demand. The pre-tax profit margin came in at 11.6%, reflecting ongoing pressure from elevated sales incentives and affordability constraints. Management has continued to emphasize disciplined capital allocation, returning $801.2 million to shareholders during the quarter through share repurchases and dividends. Total liquidity stood at $6.6 billion, with a debt-to-total-capital ratio of just 18.8%.
NVR Overview and Recent Performance
NVR — NVR, Inc., headquartered in Reston, Virginia, is one of the nation's largest homebuilding and mortgage banking enterprises. The company builds and sells homes under three established brand names: Ryan Homes (targeting first-time and first-time move-up buyers), NVHomes, and Heartland Homes (both serving move-up and luxury buyers). NVR operates in 37 metropolitan areas across 16 states and Washington, D.C., with a notably more concentrated footprint than D.R. Horton.
NVR's defining strategic feature is its land-light operating model. Rather than acquiring and developing raw land, the company secures finished lots through fixed-price purchase agreements with third-party developers. This approach dramatically reduces balance sheet risk and capital tied up in non-earning assets. In its fourth quarter of 2025 (ended December 31, 2025), NVR reported consolidated revenues of $2.71 billion and diluted earnings per share of $121.54. Homebuilding revenues declined 5% year over year, while gross margins contracted to 20.4% from 23.6% a year earlier, pressured by higher lot costs and $35.7 million in contract land deposit impairments. Net new orders, however, ticked up 3% to 4,951 units, and the cancellation rate edged lower to 16.6%. For the full year, NVR generated $10.32 billion in revenue and repurchased $1.82 billion of its own stock. The company ended the year with $1.88 billion in homebuilding cash and equivalents and a debt-to-total-capital ratio near 23%.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
When comparing DHI and NVR, several structural contrasts emerge. D.R. Horton's competitive advantage lies in sheer scale: with roughly $34 billion in annual revenue and over 84,000 homes closed in fiscal 2025, the company benefits from purchasing power, brand recognition, and operational efficiencies that smaller rivals cannot replicate. Its diversified model — spanning homebuilding, mortgage services, lot development through Forestar, and single-family/multi-family rental operations — provides multiple revenue streams and some insulation from a slowdown in any single channel.
NVR's advantage is its discipline. By avoiding land ownership risk, the company maintains a consistently stronger balance sheet and, historically, an ROE that ranks among the highest in the industry (although ROE has compressed in recent periods as cash has accumulated on the balance sheet). NVR's net income margin of roughly 13% consistently outpaces D.R. Horton's, reflecting the efficiency of its capital-light model. However, NVR's smaller scale and narrower geographic reach make it less diversified in a downturn. D.R. Horton's lower forward P/E multiple — approximately 14-15x versus NVR's roughly 19-20x — suggests the market currently favors NVR's quality premium over D.R. Horton's value proposition. Both companies are aggressively repurchasing shares, signaling management confidence. In terms of recent momentum, D.R. Horton's stock has outperformed NVR over the trailing twelve months, partly reflecting investor appetite for DHI's improving order trends and diversified growth levers.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable financial and market data, Tickeron's AI analytical framework would likely favor NVR for risk-conscious, quality-oriented positioning and DHI for those seeking exposure to a potential housing demand recovery at a more discounted valuation. NVR's structurally superior margins, net-cash balance sheet, and disciplined land strategy provide greater consistency of returns and downside protection — attributes that algorithmic models tend to reward in uncertain environments. D.R. Horton, however, offers stronger near-term momentum indicators, including sequential improvements in net sales orders and an aggressive capital return program that supports per-share metrics. The AI verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: in a "risk-off" market regime, NVR's quality characteristics are likely to earn the nod; in a "risk-on" scenario where housing sentiment improves, D.R. Horton's scale and operating leverage could make it the preferred candidate.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is DHI is a Buy and NVR is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DHI’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileNVR’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- DHI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- NVR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DHI’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NVR’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DHI’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 8 bearish.
- NVR’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 7 bearish.
Price Growth
DHI (@Homebuilding) experienced а -2.52% price change this week, while NVR (@Homebuilding) price change was -4.17% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was -1.06%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.49%, and the average quarterly price growth was -5.50%.
Reported Earning Dates
DHI is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
NVR is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (-1.06% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
| DHI | NVR | DHI / NVR | |
| Capitalization | 40B | 16.5B | 242% |
| EBITDA | 3.92B | 1.67B | 235% |
| Gain YTD | -0.089 | -15.710 | 1% |
| P/E Ratio | 13.64 | 15.98 | 85% |
| Revenue | 33.4B | 9.82B | 340% |
| Total Cash | 2.08B | 1.68B | 124% |
| Total Debt | 7.18B | 1.05B | 684% |
DHI | NVR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 54 | 59 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 56 Fair valued | 70 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 61 | 84 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 64 | 31 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 62 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 32 | 49 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
DHI's Valuation (56) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as NVR (70). This means that DHI’s stock grew similarly to NVR’s over the last 12 months.
DHI's Profit vs Risk Rating (61) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as NVR (84). This means that DHI’s stock grew similarly to NVR’s over the last 12 months.
NVR's SMR Rating (31) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for DHI (64). This means that NVR’s stock grew somewhat faster than DHI’s over the last 12 months.
DHI's Price Growth Rating (60) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as NVR (62). This means that DHI’s stock grew similarly to NVR’s over the last 12 months.
DHI's P/E Growth Rating (32) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as NVR (49). This means that DHI’s stock grew similarly to NVR’s over the last 12 months.
| DHI | NVR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 67% | 5 days ago 51% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 70% | 4 days ago 67% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 65% | 4 days ago 62% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 66% | 4 days ago 51% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 67% | 4 days ago 60% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 65% | 4 days ago 64% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 66% | 19 days ago 60% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | 4 days ago 54% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 59% | 4 days ago 68% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 61% | 4 days ago 61% |
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NVR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NVR has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NVR jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.