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DHI vs NVR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? D.R. Horton (DHI) vs. NVR, Inc. (NVR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both DHI and NVR face the same macro headwind: elevated mortgage rates pressuring affordability and pushing builders to lean harder on sales incentives.
- DHI is the nation's largest homebuilder by volume, pairing national scale with a dividend and aggressive buybacks, while NVR runs a capital-light, option-based land model with a premium regional footprint.
- Relative performance favors DHI, which has declined far less than NVR over the trailing year and year-to-date periods.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: Based on trend consistency, relative resilience, and capital-return support, the model currently favors DHI over NVR.
- For deeper detail, explore DHI Major News and DHI Today's Price Move, as well as NVR Major News and NVR Today's Price Move.
- Discover how automated systems are positioning across the market by exploring the Trending AI Robots page.
Introduction
Investors weighing exposure to U.S. residential construction often compare two very different operators: DHI, the highest-volume homebuilder in the country, and NVR, a disciplined, high-margin builder known for its asset-light strategy. Both companies occupy the same cyclical sector and confront the same affordability squeeze from higher mortgage rates, yet their business models, geographic footprints, and stock behaviors diverge meaningfully. This stock comparison is most relevant to traders and long-term investors seeking to understand relative performance and market positioning between a diversified national scale player and a premium regional specialist during a period of softening housing demand.
DHI Overview and Recent Performance
DHI, D.R. Horton, Inc., is America's largest homebuilder by volume, operating across 126 markets in 36 states from its Arlington, Texas headquarters. The company serves entry-level, move-up, and luxury buyers while also generating revenue from mortgage financing, title services, and its majority ownership of lot developer Forestar. In recent weeks, DHI reported fiscal fourth-quarter results that beat revenue expectations but missed on earnings, as heavy sales incentives compressed its operating margin. Management guided to fewer closings in the coming fiscal year, reflecting softer order trends and a rising cancellation rate. Even so, the company continues to generate substantial operating cash flow, raised its quarterly dividend, and returned billions to shareholders through buybacks. This combination of scale, affordability-focused product, and capital returns has supported relatively steadier price behavior versus peers.
NVR Overview and Recent Performance
NVR, NVR, Inc., headquartered in Reston, Virginia, builds homes under the Ryan Homes, NVHomes, and Heartland Homes brands across 37 metropolitan areas in 16 states and Washington, D.C. Its defining feature is a capital-light land strategy: rather than owning large tracts, NVR secures lots through option agreements, which historically produces high returns on capital and a strong balance sheet. Recent market activity has been more challenging, however. In its latest quarter, NVR reported lower settlements, softer pricing, margin compression, and an earnings miss, although its backlog of homes awaiting settlement grew year over year. The stock has retreated more sharply than the broader homebuilder group over the trailing twelve months, even as the company continues share repurchases and maintains a premium positioning built on disciplined operations.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron operates hundreds of AI Trading Bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, each with its own strategy, timeframe, risk profile, and performance record. Because market conditions shift constantly, not every bot is equally suited to the current environment. The curated Trending AI Robots section highlights the bots currently demonstrating the most relevant momentum and alignment with prevailing market dynamics, making it easier for traders to filter a large universe down to a focused set of candidates. Visitors can review statistics such as win rates, trade frequency, and historical performance ranges before deciding whether a given bot's approach matches their own objectives. For those interested in how automated, data-driven systems are positioning across names like DHI and NVR, exploring the Trending AI Robots page is a practical next step.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two builders lies in business model and scale. DHI pursues volume and affordability across a national platform, supplementing homebuilding with financial services and rental operations, and returning cash to shareholders through both dividends and buybacks. NVR instead prioritizes return on capital through its option-based land model, historically commanding a premium valuation and maintaining a fortress-like balance sheet, but with a narrower geographic footprint and no regular dividend. On momentum, DHI has shown greater relative stability, declining by a single-digit percentage year to date, while NVR has fallen more sharply from its 52-week high. Both face common risk factors—rising cancellation rates, incentive-driven margin erosion, and rate uncertainty—but DHI's diversified revenue and dividend may offer a steadier profile, whereas NVR remains a higher-quality, more concentrated cyclical exposure.
Tickeron AI Verdict
On observable factors, Tickeron's AI currently leans toward DHI as the more favorable of the two. The model would weigh DHI's comparatively shallower drawdown, more consistent trend structure, diversified cash flows, and steady capital returns against NVR's deeper price decline and sharper margin compression. While NVR's capital-light model and backlog growth represent meaningful strengths, the current market environment appears to favor the scale and resilience profile of DHI. This assessment reflects probabilistic, model-driven positioning rather than a definitive prediction, and it may shift as rate conditions and order trends evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is DHI is a Buy and NVR is a Buy.
DHI in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026
The 10-day moving average for DHI crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on DHI as a result. In 55 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for DHI just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where DHI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
DHI moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DHI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
DHI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for DHI entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 66, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. DHI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 78 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.714) is normal, around the industry mean (1.847). P/E Ratio (13.878) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.066). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.171) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.205) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
NVR's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NVR turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where NVR's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 39 of 55 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where NVR's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 10 of 15 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NVR as a result. In 58 of 102 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
NVR moved above its 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NVR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
NVR broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for NVR entered a downward trend on November 02, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. NVR’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 68 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: NVR's P/B Ratio (4.682) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.847). P/E Ratio (14.677) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.066). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.460) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.909) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. NVR’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 66, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
DHI | NVR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 72 | 64 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 78 Overvalued | 68 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 47 | 76 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 62 | 31 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 59 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 35 | 55 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NVR's Valuation (68) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as DHI (78). This means that NVR’s stock grew similarly to DHI’s over the last 12 months.
DHI's Profit vs Risk Rating (47) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as NVR (76). This means that DHI’s stock grew similarly to NVR’s over the last 12 months.
NVR's SMR Rating (31) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as DHI (62). This means that NVR’s stock grew similarly to DHI’s over the last 12 months.
DHI's Price Growth Rating (48) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as NVR (59). This means that DHI’s stock grew similarly to NVR’s over the last 12 months.
DHI's P/E Growth Rating (35) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as NVR (55). This means that DHI’s stock grew similarly to NVR’s over the last 12 months.
| DHI | NVR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 67% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 47% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 57% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 71% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 65% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 63% | 8 days ago 56% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 54% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 63% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DHI’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while NVR’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- DHI’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- NVR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DHI’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NVR’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DHI’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- NVR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
DHI (@Homebuilding) experienced а +4.37% price change this week, while NVR (@Homebuilding) price change was +9.38% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was +5.61%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.53%, and the average quarterly price growth was +5.23%.
Reported Earning Dates
DHI is expected to report earnings on Jan 26, 2027.
NVR is expected to report earnings on Feb 02, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (+5.61% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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