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DINO vs MPC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) vs. Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both DINO and MPC have delivered strong year-to-date returns exceeding 70%, significantly outperforming the broader market amid favorable refining conditions.
- DINO trades at a lower price-to-earnings ratio and offers a higher dividend yield compared to MPC, potentially appealing to value-oriented investors.
- MPC benefits from greater scale, with substantially larger refining capacity and a more diversified midstream presence.
- Recent market activity shows both stocks experiencing volatility within upward trends, supported by improved refining margins and solid first-quarter 2026 earnings reports.
- Sector exposure to downstream refining makes both sensitive to crude oil differentials, demand trends, and regulatory developments in the energy space.
- DINO has shown more pronounced earnings momentum in recent quarters relative to its size.
Introduction
HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) and Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) represent two prominent players in the U.S. refining and marketing sector. This comparison examines their relative performance, business profiles, and positioning in the current market environment. Investors and traders focused on energy equities, particularly those seeking exposure to downstream refining margins or evaluating value versus scale within the same industry, may find this analysis relevant for portfolio construction and sector allocation decisions.
DINO Overview and Recent Performance
HF Sinclair Corporation operates as an independent energy company with refining, marketing, and renewables operations, primarily in the United States. In recent market activity, DINO shares have advanced significantly, posting year-to-date gains near 71% amid improving refining margins and a strong first-quarter 2026 earnings report that included net income of $648 million. The stock has traded within a 52-week range extending from approximately $42 to near $79, reflecting broad upward momentum in recent weeks driven by favorable crack spreads and operational updates. Sentiment has been supported by consistent earnings beats and sector tailwinds, though the smaller market capitalization introduces higher relative volatility compared to larger peers.
MPC Overview and Recent Performance
Marathon Petroleum Corporation is one of the largest independent petroleum product refiners and marketers in the United States, with extensive midstream assets and renewable diesel production. MPC shares have also posted robust gains, with year-to-date returns around 75% supported by solid first-quarter results showing net income of $511 million and ongoing strength in downstream operations. The stock has ranged between roughly $158 and $284 over the past year, with recent market activity characterized by steady upward price action and inclusion in growth indexes. Performance has benefited from scale advantages and resilient demand, though the company continues to navigate typical industry variables such as feedstock costs and product pricing.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) and Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) share core exposure to refining and marketing but differ markedly in scale and valuation. MPC operates with significantly larger refining capacity and a broader midstream footprint, providing greater diversification but also higher absolute exposure to commodity price swings. In contrast, DINO presents a more compact profile with a lower price-to-earnings ratio and higher dividend yield, which may suit investors prioritizing relative value. Recent momentum has favored both, yet DINO has exhibited stronger percentage gains from lower base levels. Risk factors include shared sensitivity to refining margins and regulatory changes, while MPC’s larger size offers potential stability in downturns. Market sentiment remains constructive for the sector, with both benefiting from current supply-demand dynamics.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including recent trend consistency, valuation metrics, earnings momentum, and relative positioning within the refining sector, Tickeron’s AI currently assigns a higher probability of near-term outperformance to HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO). The stock’s lower price-to-earnings ratio, elevated dividend yield, and stronger recent earnings trajectory contribute to this assessment, though Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) maintains advantages in scale and stability that could support steadier long-term results under varying market conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is DINO is a Buy and MPC is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DINO’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileMPC’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- DINO’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- MPC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DINO’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MPC’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DINO’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- MPC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
DINO (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а +7.68% price change this week, while MPC (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was +6.53% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was +6.68%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +7.27%, and the average quarterly price growth was +31.53%.
Reported Earning Dates
DINO is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
MPC is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (+6.68% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
| DINO | MPC | DINO / MPC | |
| Capitalization | 14.1B | 82.8B | 17% |
| EBITDA | 2.69B | 12.4B | 22% |
| Gain YTD | 72.323 | 76.013 | 95% |
| P/E Ratio | 11.72 | 18.68 | 63% |
| Revenue | 27.6B | 135B | 20% |
| Total Cash | 1.15B | 2.15B | 53% |
| Total Debt | 3.25B | 34.3B | 9% |
DINO | MPC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 75 | 26 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 44 Fair valued | 73 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 34 | 17 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 63 | 35 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 38 | 6 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 95 | 76 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
DINO's Valuation (44) in the null industry is in the same range as MPC (73) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that DINO’s stock grew similarly to MPC’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Profit vs Risk Rating (17) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as DINO (34) in the null industry. This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to DINO’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's SMR Rating (35) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as DINO (63) in the null industry. This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to DINO’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Price Growth Rating (6) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as DINO (38) in the null industry. This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to DINO’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's P/E Growth Rating (76) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as DINO (95) in the null industry. This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to DINO’s over the last 12 months.
| DINO | MPC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 58% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 59% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 69% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 78% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 23 days ago 65% | 23 days ago 61% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 54% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 85% | 2 days ago 74% |
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DINO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DINO has been closely correlated with MPC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 78% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if DINO jumps, then MPC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To DINO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DINO | 100% | +0.71% | ||
| MPC - DINO | 78% Closely correlated | +0.16% | ||
| VLO - DINO | 78% Closely correlated | -0.20% | ||
| PSX - DINO | 76% Closely correlated | -0.77% | ||
| PBF - DINO | 75% Closely correlated | -0.24% | ||
| DK - DINO | 73% Closely correlated | -1.03% | ||
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MPC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MPC has been closely correlated with VLO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MPC jumps, then VLO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MPC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MPC | 100% | +0.16% | ||
| VLO - MPC | 90% Closely correlated | -0.20% | ||
| PSX - MPC | 84% Closely correlated | -0.77% | ||
| DINO - MPC | 79% Closely correlated | +0.71% | ||
| PBF - MPC | 73% Closely correlated | -0.24% | ||
| PARR - MPC | 68% Closely correlated | +0.37% | ||
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