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DINO vs MPC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) vs. Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both DINO and MPC have delivered strong year-to-date (YTD) gains of approximately 52%, buoyed by favorable refining margins in recent market activity.
- DINO trades at a lower price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 10.4 compared to MPC's 18.6, indicating potentially better value in the current environment.
- DINO boasts a higher dividend yield of 2.9% versus MPC's 1.6%, appealing to income-focused investors.
- Recent Q1 2026 earnings for DINO significantly beat estimates with a +576% earnings per share (EPS) surprise, driving recent momentum.
- MPC, the larger refiner by market cap at $72B versus DINO's $12B, shows steady performance amid analyst upgrades and dividend declarations.
- Over the past year, DINO has outperformed MPC with returns of 131% versus 83%.
Introduction
HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) and Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) are leading players in the U.S. oil refining sector, processing crude oil into fuels and specialty products. This comparison is timely amid volatile energy markets influenced by geopolitical tensions and fluctuating crude prices. Traders seeking momentum plays and value investors hunting attractive yields will find value here, as both stocks have shown resilience with strong YTD gains. By examining recent performance, valuations, and sector dynamics, investors can gauge relative positioning in the downstream energy space.
DINO Overview and Recent Performance
HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) operates a network of refineries across the U.S., producing gasoline, diesel, and lubricants, with segments in renewables and asphalt. In recent market activity, DINO shares have surged, with weekly gains around 16% and monthly increases near 13%, reflecting robust refining crack spreads. The company's Q1 2026 earnings showcased net income of $648 million and a massive EPS beat, alongside a maintained quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share. Positive sentiment stems from operational efficiencies and favorable margins, positioning DINO as a momentum standout despite broader sector headwinds like CEO transitions.
MPC Overview and Recent Performance
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is one of the largest U.S. refiners, with integrated operations in refining, marketing, and midstream assets, including retail fuel stations. Recent weeks have seen mixed price action for MPC, with gains following analyst upgrades and a $1.00 quarterly dividend declaration, though some sessions lagged the broader market. Strong fundamentals persist, supported by high refining throughput and cost controls amid volatile oil prices. Investor optimism has grown with upward earnings revisions, contributing to YTD strength comparable to peers, even as shares navigate sector-wide pressures from margin compression.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both DINO and MPC focus on refining crude into downstream products, but MPC's larger scale ($72B market cap) provides broader midstream exposure versus DINO's mid-cap agility ($12B). Growth drivers include refining margins and renewable transitions, with DINO emphasizing lubricants and specialties. Recent momentum favors DINO post-earnings, while MPC benefits from retail stability. Risks like crude volatility and regulatory shifts affect both, though DINO's lower beta (0.71) signals relative stability. Market sentiment leans positive for value-oriented refiners, with DINO's cheaper valuation contrasting MPC's premium scale.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently leans toward DINO based on superior recent trend consistency, lower PE valuation, higher dividend yield, and outsized earnings momentum. While MPC offers scale and steady catalysts, DINO's relative positioning suggests higher probability of near-term outperformance in refining-favorable conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is DINO is a Hold and MPC is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DINO’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileMPC’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- DINO’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- MPC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DINO’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MPC’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DINO’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- MPC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
DINO (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а -6.85% price change this week, while MPC (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was -7.09% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was -6.52%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -9.80%, and the average quarterly price growth was +16.97%.
Reported Earning Dates
DINO is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
MPC is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (-6.52% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
| DINO | MPC | DINO / MPC | |
| Capitalization | 11.9B | 71.4B | 17% |
| EBITDA | 2.69B | 12.4B | 22% |
| Gain YTD | 45.483 | 51.740 | 88% |
| P/E Ratio | 9.90 | 16.10 | 61% |
| Revenue | 27.6B | 135B | 20% |
| Total Cash | 1.15B | 2.15B | 53% |
| Total Debt | 3.25B | 34.3B | 9% |
DINO | MPC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 83 | 63 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 35 Fair valued | 63 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 43 | 22 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | 43 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 96 | 81 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
DINO's Valuation (35) in the null industry is in the same range as MPC (63) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that DINO’s stock grew similarly to MPC’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Profit vs Risk Rating (22) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as DINO (43) in the null industry. This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to DINO’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's SMR Rating (100) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as DINO (100) in the null industry. This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to DINO’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Price Growth Rating (43) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as DINO (43) in the null industry. This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to DINO’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's P/E Growth Rating (81) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as DINO (96) in the null industry. This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to DINO’s over the last 12 months.
| DINO | MPC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 50% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 66% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 55% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 58% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 16 days ago 73% | 16 days ago 75% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 61% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 73% |
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DINO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DINO has been closely correlated with VLO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if DINO jumps, then VLO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To DINO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DINO | 100% | -1.01% | ||
| VLO - DINO | 77% Closely correlated | -1.79% | ||
| MPC - DINO | 77% Closely correlated | -2.34% | ||
| PSX - DINO | 75% Closely correlated | -2.81% | ||
| PBF - DINO | 73% Closely correlated | -3.52% | ||
| DK - DINO | 73% Closely correlated | -3.88% | ||
More | ||||
MPC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MPC has been closely correlated with VLO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MPC jumps, then VLO could also see price increases.