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EFSC vs SRCE
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Enterprise Financial Services Corp (EFSC) vs. 1st Source Corporation (SRCE) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both EFSC and SRCE are Midwestern regional banks that delivered record or near-record full-year 2025 earnings, but their growth profiles and credit pictures differ meaningfully.
- EFSC is expanding through branch acquisitions in Arizona and Kansas, while SRCE is growing organically across its Indiana and Michigan footprint.
- Credit quality is a sharper near-term focus for EFSC, which saw nonperforming assets rise, versus a more stable asset-quality profile at SRCE.
- SRCE holds a notable edge in dividend longevity, with 38 consecutive years of increases, compared with a more modest payout history at EFSC.
- Both stocks trade at low-teens price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples, reflecting the broader regional-banking sector's discounted valuation.
Introduction
Regional banks occupy a distinct corner of the market, and choosing between two well-run institutions often comes down to subtle differences in growth strategy, credit quality, and capital-return discipline. This stock comparison examines Enterprise Financial Services Corp (EFSC) and 1st Source Corporation (SRCE), two community-focused banks with similar scale but divergent approaches to expansion and shareholder returns. Investors evaluating relative performance and market positioning in the financial sector may find this side-by-side useful whether they prioritize organic loan growth, acquisition-driven momentum, or dividend durability. Both names reflect the same interest-rate environment, making their operational differences the key differentiator.
EFSC Overview and Recent Performance
Enterprise Financial Services Corp is a St. Louis, Missouri-based financial holding company operating Enterprise Bank & Trust, serving business and individual clients across Arizona, California, Florida, Kansas, Missouri, Nevada, and New Mexico. In recent weeks and months, the company's narrative has centered on expansion: it completed a branch acquisition in Arizona and Kansas that added roughly $1 billion in deposits and accelerated entry into higher-growth southwestern markets.
Full-year 2025 results showed net income of approximately $201.4 million, or $5.31 per diluted share, up from $185.3 million, or $4.83 per share, in 2024. Net interest income rose to $626.7 million, and the net interest margin (NIM) — a key measure of lending profitability — improved to 4.21%. The company also raised its quarterly dividend to $0.33 per share. The primary overhang has been credit quality: nonperforming assets climbed to roughly 0.95% of total assets, driven in part by Southern California commercial real estate credits, which management has been actively resolving through foreclosures and sales.
SRCE Overview and Recent Performance
1st Source Corporation is the bank holding company for 1st Source Bank, a South Bend, Indiana institution serving northern Indiana and southwestern Michigan with commercial and consumer banking, trust and wealth advisory services, and insurance products. With roots dating to 1863, it operates as a more traditional, organically driven community bank.
Full-year 2025 results were described by management as record-setting: net income rose nearly 20% to about $158.3 million, with diluted earnings per share reaching $6.41 versus $5.36 a year earlier. Net interest income increased to $348.2 million, and profitability metrics strengthened, with return on assets of approximately 1.76% and return on equity of 13.16%. The company extended its dividend-growth streak to 38 consecutive years and raised its quarterly payout to $0.43 per share. Credit quality remained comparatively stable, though nonperforming assets ticked up on a small number of isolated credits. A leadership transition also occurred, with Andrea Short becoming chief executive officer in late 2025.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Although both are regional banks, EFSC and SRCE present contrasting growth engines. EFSC has leaned on acquisition-driven expansion, using branch deals to grow deposits and enter faster-growing geographies, which has lifted revenue but also added integration costs and a temporary rise in nonperforming assets. SRCE, by contrast, favors steady organic loan and deposit growth in a concentrated Midwest footprint, supporting a higher return on equity and a cleaner, more predictable credit profile.
On capital returns, SRCE stands out for its 38-year dividend-growth streak, an unusual durability record among regional banks, while EFSC offers a smaller but rising dividend supplemented by share repurchases. Risk factors also diverge: EFSC carries elevated exposure to commercial real estate in Southern California, whereas SRCE's risks center on a narrower geographic concentration and modest forecast growth. Both trade at low-teens P/E multiples, reflecting sector-wide discounts rather than company-specific weakness.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely tilt toward SRCE on measures of trend consistency and stability, given its higher return on equity, cleaner credit trajectory, and 38-year record of dividend growth — attributes that often correlate with steadier, lower-volatility price behavior. However, EFSC offers a potentially stronger catalyst path if management successfully resolves its elevated nonperforming assets and fully integrates recent acquisitions, which could re-rate the stock as credit concerns fade. The assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive: the more favorable near-term trend profile appears to reside with SRCE, while EFSC represents a higher-conviction, event-driven opportunity contingent on credit normalization.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is EFSC is a Hold and SRCE is a Hold.
EFSC's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for EFSC turned positive on October 12, 2026. Looking at past instances where EFSC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where EFSC's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 13 of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 46%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 36 of 59 cases where EFSC's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on EFSC as a result. In 48 of 90 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
Following a +2.05% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where EFSC advanced for three days, in 164 of 296 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where EFSC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
EFSC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for EFSC entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 15 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 55 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.113) is normal, around the industry mean (1.241). P/E Ratio (11.966) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.089). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.600) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.023) settles around the average of (0.036) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.575) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. EFSC’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
SRCE's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SRCE turned positive on October 16, 2026. Looking at past instances where SRCE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 34 of 63 cases where SRCE's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SRCE as a result. In 48 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
SRCE moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.87% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SRCE advanced for three days, in 173 of 305 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
SRCE may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day moving average for SRCE crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SRCE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
The Aroon Indicator for SRCE entered a downward trend on October 20, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SRCE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 81 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.587) is normal, around the industry mean (1.241). P/E Ratio (12.393) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.089). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.380) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.021) settles around the average of (0.036) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.617) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
EFSC | SRCE | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 8 | 23 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 55 Fair valued | 81 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 44 | 10 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 15 | 19 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 56 | 41 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 25 | 21 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
EFSC's Valuation (55) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as SRCE (81). This means that EFSC’s stock grew similarly to SRCE’s over the last 12 months.
SRCE's Profit vs Risk Rating (10) in the Regional Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for EFSC (44). This means that SRCE’s stock grew somewhat faster than EFSC’s over the last 12 months.
EFSC's SMR Rating (15) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as SRCE (19). This means that EFSC’s stock grew similarly to SRCE’s over the last 12 months.
SRCE's Price Growth Rating (41) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as EFSC (56). This means that SRCE’s stock grew similarly to EFSC’s over the last 12 months.
SRCE's P/E Growth Rating (21) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as EFSC (25). This means that SRCE’s stock grew similarly to EFSC’s over the last 12 months.
| EFSC | SRCE | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 46% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 54% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 56% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 69% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 58% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 55% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 55% | 5 days ago 57% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 63% | 14 days ago 54% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 51% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 57% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
EFSC’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while SRCE’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- EFSC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- SRCE’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
EFSC’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SRCE’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- EFSC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- SRCE’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
EFSC (@Regional Banks) experienced а +2.38% price change this week, while SRCE (@Regional Banks) price change was +2.76% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +0.87%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.29%, and the average quarterly price growth was +6.77%.
Reported Earning Dates
EFSC is expected to report earnings on Oct 21, 2026.
SRCE is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+0.87% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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EFSC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, EFSC has been closely correlated with FRME. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if EFSC jumps, then FRME could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To EFSC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EFSC | 100% | +1.94% | ||
| FRME - EFSC | 86% Closely correlated | +1.85% | ||
| BUSE - EFSC | 86% Closely correlated | +1.91% | ||
| BY - EFSC | 85% Closely correlated | +1.46% | ||
| THFF - EFSC | 85% Closely correlated | +1.42% | ||
| SRCE - EFSC | 84% Closely correlated | +1.35% | ||
More | ||||
SRCE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SRCE has been closely correlated with PEBO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SRCE jumps, then PEBO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SRCE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SRCE | 100% | +1.35% | ||
| PEBO - SRCE | 89% Closely correlated | +2.99% | ||
| THFF - SRCE | 87% Closely correlated | +1.42% | ||
| MBWM - SRCE | 85% Closely correlated | +1.06% | ||
| NBTB - SRCE | 85% Closely correlated | +1.78% | ||
| BY - SRCE | 85% Closely correlated | +1.46% | ||
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