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SRCE vs THFF
Which Stock Would AI Choose? 1st Source Corporation (SRCE) vs. First Financial Corporation (THFF) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both SRCE and THFF are Indiana-based regional bank holding companies, but they differ meaningfully in scale, growth strategy, and market positioning.
- First Financial (THFF) has delivered stronger recent relative performance, with a roughly 54% one-year return versus approximately 32% for 1st Source (SRCE).
- THFF is pursuing an active acquisition strategy, including CedarStone and First Illinois Corporation, while SRCE is emphasizing organic growth and capital returns.
- 1st Source (SRCE) trades at a higher forward valuation, while First Financial (THFF) offers a higher dividend yield.
- Both stocks have been supported by strong net interest margins and disciplined credit quality, but momentum and catalysts currently skew toward THFF.
Introduction
Regional banks have drawn renewed investor attention as net interest margins (NIM, the spread between what a bank earns on loans and pays on deposits) stabilize and loan books expand. This stock comparison examines two Midwestern lenders with similar footprints but distinct profiles: 1st Source Corporation (SRCE), headquartered in South Bend, Indiana, and First Financial Corporation (THFF), based in Terre Haute, Indiana. Traders and investors evaluating income-oriented financials, relative performance, and small-cap growth potential may find this side-by-side assessment useful for understanding how each company's recent momentum, growth drivers, and risk factors shape its market positioning.
SRCE Overview and Recent Performance
1st Source Corporation is the holding company for 1st Source Bank, offering commercial and consumer banking, trust and wealth advisory, and insurance services across Indiana and Michigan. The company recently navigated a leadership transition, with Andrea Short becoming chief executive officer in late 2025. Recent market activity has been constructive, with the stock posting a year-to-date gain above 35% and a market capitalization near $2 billion. Recent quarterly results beat analyst expectations, with earnings per share (EPS) rising sharply year over year, supported by disciplined loan and deposit pricing and continued expense management. Management has emphasized a "fortress-like" balance sheet, growing average loans above $7 billion and maintaining solid return on assets (a profitability measure) and return on equity. The company has also repurchased shares and raised its dividend, reinforcing its focus on shareholder returns.
THFF Overview and Recent Performance
First Financial Corporation is the parent of First Financial Bank, N.A., providing commercial, mortgage, and consumer lending, lease financing, trust, and insurance services across Indiana and Illinois. The company has been the more aggressive of the two on mergers and acquisitions (M&A, or corporate deals combining businesses), completing the CedarStone Bank transaction and announcing agreements to acquire First Illinois Corporation and Freestar Bank, expanding its Illinois footprint. This inorganic growth has supported a notable expansion in book value per share and a rise in net interest margin. Recent weeks have seen strong relative performance, with the stock reaching new highs and delivering a one-year return above 50%. Quarterly earnings have consistently topped estimates, and the company offers a dividend yield near 3%, reflecting a sustained commitment to returning capital to shareholders.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
While both companies are Midwestern regional banks, their growth playbooks differ. SRCE is a larger institution focused on organic loan growth, wealth management, and steady capital returns, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio around 12 and a dividend yield near 2%. Its diversified fee income from trust and insurance adds stability. THFF, by contrast, is smaller and has leaned on acquisitions to accelerate growth, which introduces integration risk but also supports stronger near-term expansion and a higher dividend yield. On momentum, THFF has outperformed over the past year, while SRCE offers a more seasoned, diversified franchise. Risk factors include credit quality, interest-rate sensitivity, and execution on M&A for THFF.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely tilt toward THFF in the current environment. The stock's stronger relative performance, upward price momentum, expanding net interest margin, and clear acquisition-driven catalysts present a more consistent trend profile than SRCE, whose leadership transition and higher valuation create a comparatively mixed setup. That said, SRCE's diversified revenue streams and disciplined balance sheet may appeal to a stability-oriented model. The assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive, reflecting momentum, catalysts, and relative positioning rather than a guarantee of future performance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is SRCE is a Hold and THFF is a StrongBuy.
SRCE's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SRCE turned positive on October 16, 2026. Looking at past instances where SRCE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 38 of 63 cases where SRCE's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SRCE as a result. In 47 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
Following a +1.87% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SRCE advanced for three days, in 173 of 305 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
SRCE may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
SRCE moved below its 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for SRCE crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SRCE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
The Aroon Indicator for SRCE entered a downward trend on October 20, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 57, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SRCE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 80 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.577) is normal, around the industry mean (1.246). P/E Ratio (12.311) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.217). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.380) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.021) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.617) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
THFF sees its Stochastic Oscillator ascends from oversold territory
On October 02, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for THFF moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 59 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 45 of the 59 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where THFF's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 12 of 20 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on THFF as a result. In 51 of 88 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for THFF just turned positive on October 13, 2026. Looking at past instances where THFF's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +1.56% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where THFF advanced for three days, in 171 of 299 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
THFF may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where THFF declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
The Aroon Indicator for THFF entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 57, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. THFF’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.313) is normal, around the industry mean (1.246). P/E Ratio (10.447) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.217). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.560) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.030) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.306) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
SRCE | THFF | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 24 | 70 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 80 Overvalued | 50 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 11 | 11 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 19 | 25 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 44 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 23 | 38 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
THFF's Valuation (50) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as SRCE (80). This means that THFF’s stock grew similarly to SRCE’s over the last 12 months.
THFF's Profit vs Risk Rating (11) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as SRCE (11). This means that THFF’s stock grew similarly to SRCE’s over the last 12 months.
SRCE's SMR Rating (19) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as THFF (25). This means that SRCE’s stock grew similarly to THFF’s over the last 12 months.
SRCE's Price Growth Rating (41) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as THFF (44). This means that SRCE’s stock grew similarly to THFF’s over the last 12 months.
SRCE's P/E Growth Rating (23) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as THFF (38). This means that SRCE’s stock grew similarly to THFF’s over the last 12 months.
| SRCE | THFF | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 60% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 76% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 58% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 57% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 51% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 57% | 7 days ago 57% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 16 days ago 54% | 9 days ago 55% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 59% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 54% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
SRCE’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while THFF’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- SRCE’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- THFF’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
SRCE’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while THFF’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- SRCE’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- THFF’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 2 bearish.
Price Growth
SRCE (@Regional Banks) experienced а +1.76% price change this week, while THFF (@Regional Banks) price change was +2.16% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +2.63%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.03%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.99%.
Reported Earning Dates
SRCE is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
THFF is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+2.63% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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SRCE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SRCE has been closely correlated with PEBO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SRCE jumps, then PEBO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SRCE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SRCE | 100% | -0.66% | ||
| PEBO - SRCE | 89% Closely correlated | -0.61% | ||
| THFF - SRCE | 87% Closely correlated | -0.59% | ||
| MBWM - SRCE | 85% Closely correlated | -0.56% | ||
| NBTB - SRCE | 85% Closely correlated | -0.25% | ||
| BY - SRCE | 85% Closely correlated | -0.61% | ||
More | ||||
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| IBFR | 50.16 | 0.18 | +0.37% |
| Innovator International Developed Managed 10 Buffer ETF (IBFR) | |||
| FTMA | 8.63 | 0.03 | +0.35% |
| Franklin Massachusetts Municipal Income ETF (FTMA) | |||
| GJP | 24.48 | N/A | N/A |
| Synthetic Fixed Income Securities on the behalf of STRATS for Dominion Resources Series 2005-6 | |||
| FINT | 35.95 | N/A | N/A |
| Frontier Asset Total International Equity ETF | |||
| FPF | 15.69 | -0.01 | -0.06% |
| FIRST TRUST INTERMEDIATE DURATION PREFERRED & Income FUND | |||