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FMBH vs SRCE
Which Stock Would AI Choose? First Mid Bancshares (FMBH) vs. 1st Source Corporation (SRCE) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both FMBH and SRCE are Midwest regional bank holding companies navigating a leadership transition in 2026, yet their growth profiles and catalysts differ meaningfully.
- SRCE posted record 2025 earnings and a strong earnings beat in recent quarters, while FMBH is integrating its Two Rivers Financial Group acquisition amid some agricultural credit normalization.
- SRCE shows a higher net interest margin (NIM) and return profile, while FMBH leans on scale, wealth management, and insurance fee income for diversification.
- Both stocks have outperformed broader benchmarks over the past year, but SRCE carries stronger recent momentum and a longer dividend-growth streak.
- Relative positioning hinges on momentum and earnings stability versus valuation and integration execution.
Introduction
Regional banks remain a focal point for investors assessing how interest rates, credit quality, and merger activity shape community lenders. This stock comparison examines FMBH (First Mid Bancshares) and SRCE (1st Source Corporation), two well-established, asset-rich institutions with distinct regional footprints and growth strategies. Both names have experienced notable catalysts in recent months, including earnings momentum and executive transitions. Traders and investors weighing financial-sector exposure, dividend durability, or relative performance may find this head-to-head useful in understanding how two comparable Midwest banks are positioned in the current market environment.
FMBH Overview and Recent Performance
FMBH, First Mid Bancshares, is a roughly $8 billion community-focused financial services organization headquartered in Illinois, operating across Illinois, Missouri, Texas, and Wisconsin. Its business mix spans community banking, wealth management, brokerage, agricultural services, and insurance. Recent weeks have been defined by the integration of the Two Rivers Financial Group acquisition, which expanded deposits and the loan book but also added non-performing loans and acquisition-related expenses. Management has flagged credit risk-rating normalization in the agricultural segment, though it has characterized borrower balance sheets as resilient.
On the earnings front, FMBH beat consensus estimates in its first-quarter report, and analysts have cited strong loan growth, net interest margin (NIM) expansion, and disciplined expense control. A leadership succession toward incoming CEO Matthew K. Smith has been described as evolutionary rather than disruptive. The stock has advanced solidly year to date, supported by improving profitability, even as a richer valuation multiple relative to some peers leaves the risk-reward in focus.
SRCE Overview and Recent Performance
SRCE, 1st Source Corporation, is a South Bend, Indiana-based bank holding company serving northern Indiana and southwest Michigan, and it is the largest locally controlled financial institution in its region. Beyond traditional community banking and wealth advisory services, it competes nationally through specialty finance lines covering private and cargo aircraft, trucks, construction equipment, and renewable energy. This diversified lending footprint has supported loan growth in recent quarters.
SRCE delivered record 2025 results, with net income rising nearly 20% and diluted earnings per share (EPS) climbing to $6.41. That momentum carried into 2026, highlighted by a recent earnings beat and expanding NIM of roughly 4.25%. The company also completed a leadership transition to new CEO Andrea Short and continued a 38-year streak of annual dividend increases. Favorable analyst actions and a rising price-target range reflect broadly constructive sentiment, although higher non-performing loans and reserve builds remain items worth monitoring.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both lenders are well-capitalized regional franchises, but their growth drivers differ. FMBH is pursuing an acquisitive strategy, with Two Rivers adding scale and geographic reach, while its wealth management and insurance segments diversify revenue beyond interest income. SRCE relies more heavily on organic loan growth and specialty finance niches, which supports a higher NIM and stronger return on assets and equity.
Recent momentum tilts toward SRCE, which has delivered consecutive earnings beats and a longer dividend-growth record. By contrast, FMBH faces near-term integration costs and agricultural credit normalization that may temper sentiment. On risk, FMBH carries merger-execution and ag-credit exposure, while SRCE faces concentration risk in its specialized lending lines and elevated non-performing loans relative to a year ago. Valuation also contrasts: FMBH screens richer on a price-to-earnings basis, whereas SRCE trades at or below peer multiples despite its profitability edge.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, earnings stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely assign a modest edge to SRCE in the current environment. Its stronger recent momentum, expanding net interest margin, record earnings trajectory, and multi-decade dividend-growth history suggest a more consistent trend profile. FMBH remains a credible candidate, particularly if acquisition synergies and agricultural credit stabilization materialize, but its integration phase and higher relative valuation introduce greater near-term uncertainty. This assessment is probabilistic and reflects current conditions rather than a fixed outlook.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FMBH is a Buy and SRCE is a Buy.
FMBH's RSI Indicator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for FMBH moved out of oversold territory on September 24, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 22 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 15 of the 22 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 68%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on FMBH as a result. In 50 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for FMBH just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where FMBH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
FMBH moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for FMBH crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
Following a +0.97% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FMBH advanced for three days, in 158 of 273 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 99 of 226 cases where FMBH Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 44%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 38 of 53 cases where FMBH's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FMBH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
FMBH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 41 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. FMBH’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 57, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 98 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.217) is normal, around the industry mean (1.258). P/E Ratio (12.475) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.468). FMBH's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (43.000) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.021) settles around the average of (0.036) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.330) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
Momentum Indicator for SRCE turns positive, indicating new upward trend
SRCE saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 85 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 60 of the 85 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SRCE just turned positive on October 16, 2026. Looking at past instances where SRCE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 40 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
SRCE moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for SRCE crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
Following a +0.76% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SRCE advanced for three days, in 173 of 304 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 24 of 53 cases where SRCE's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 45%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SRCE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
The Aroon Indicator for SRCE entered a downward trend on October 20, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 57, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SRCE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 81 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.606) is normal, around the industry mean (1.258). P/E Ratio (12.542) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.468). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.380) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.021) settles around the average of (0.036) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.617) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
FMBH | SRCE | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 98 Overvalued | 81 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 56 | 11 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 23 | 19 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | 42 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 19 | 19 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 41 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SRCE's Valuation (81) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as FMBH (98). This means that SRCE’s stock grew similarly to FMBH’s over the last 12 months.
SRCE's Profit vs Risk Rating (11) in the Regional Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for FMBH (56). This means that SRCE’s stock grew somewhat faster than FMBH’s over the last 12 months.
SRCE's SMR Rating (19) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as FMBH (23). This means that SRCE’s stock grew similarly to FMBH’s over the last 12 months.
SRCE's Price Growth Rating (42) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as FMBH (43). This means that SRCE’s stock grew similarly to FMBH’s over the last 12 months.
SRCE's P/E Growth Rating (19) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as FMBH (19). This means that SRCE’s stock grew similarly to FMBH’s over the last 12 months.
| FMBH | SRCE | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 68% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 45% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 71% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 68% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 58% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 58% | 5 days ago 57% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 64% | 25 days ago 54% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 44% | 2 days ago 47% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FMBH’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while SRCE’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- FMBH’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- SRCE’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FMBH’s TA Score shows that 7 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SRCE’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FMBH’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 3 bearish.
- SRCE’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
FMBH (@Regional Banks) experienced а -0.67% price change this week, while SRCE (@Regional Banks) price change was +0.14% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was -1.29%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.46%, and the average quarterly price growth was +7.38%.
Reported Earning Dates
FMBH is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
SRCE is expected to report earnings on Jan 21, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (-1.29% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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FMBH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FMBH has been closely correlated with BY. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if FMBH jumps, then BY could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To FMBH | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FMBH | 100% | -1.43% | ||
| BY - FMBH | 86% Closely correlated | -1.18% | ||
| IBCP - FMBH | 86% Closely correlated | -1.43% | ||
| CCNE - FMBH | 85% Closely correlated | -0.42% | ||
| SHBI - FMBH | 84% Closely correlated | -1.37% | ||
| SRCE - FMBH | 83% Closely correlated | -0.92% | ||
More | ||||
SRCE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SRCE has been closely correlated with THFF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SRCE jumps, then THFF could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SRCE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SRCE | 100% | -0.92% | ||
| THFF - SRCE | 87% Closely correlated | -1.23% | ||
| PEBO - SRCE | 85% Closely correlated | -0.62% | ||
| MBWM - SRCE | 85% Closely correlated | -1.38% | ||
| BY - SRCE | 85% Closely correlated | -1.18% | ||
| NBTB - SRCE | 85% Closely correlated | -1.47% | ||
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| GSX | 31.16 | N/A | N/A |
| Tradr 2X Long GS Daily ETF | |||
| PGJ | 20.82 | -0.04 | -0.21% |
| Invesco Golden Dragon China ETF (PGJ) | |||
| NHS | 5.49 | -0.05 | -0.90% |
| Neuberger High Yield Strategies Fund Inc. | |||
| DDTD | 20.81 | -0.23 | -1.07% |
| Innovator Equity Dual Directional 10 Buffer ETF - December (DDTD) | |||
| BSOL | 13.05 | -0.74 | -5.37% |
| Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) | |||