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ELV vs MOH
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Elevance Health (ELV) vs. Molina Healthcare (MOH) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ELV is the largest Blue Cross Blue Shield licensee with roughly 45 million members, while MOH is a more focused managed-care operator concentrated on Medicaid, Medicare, and Marketplace plans.
- Both companies are contending with elevated medical costs and Medicaid rate pressure, but ELV has maintained profitability while MOH recently posted a quarterly loss and sharply reduced guidance.
- MOH shares have fallen substantially over the past year and underperformed major indices, whereas ELV has held relatively stable with a more constructive analyst consensus.
- ELV benefits from a diversified services segment (Carelon), while MOH leans more heavily on government-sponsored programs and policy-sensitive enrollment.
- Relative positioning currently favors ELV on trend consistency and earnings stability, though both carry sector-wide regulatory and cost risks.
Introduction
Investors evaluating managed-care and health insurance stocks frequently weigh scale, diversification, and earnings visibility. ELV (Elevance Health) and MOH (Molina Healthcare) both operate in the U.S. government-sponsored and commercial health benefits market, yet they occupy different positions within it. This stock comparison examines how the two companies are performing amid rising medical costs, Medicaid redeterminations, and policy uncertainty around Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies. The analysis may be relevant to traders assessing relative performance and momentum, as well as longer-term investors weighing market positioning and risk factors across two businesses with meaningfully different profiles.
ELV Overview and Recent Performance
Elevance Health, Inc. is one of the largest U.S. health insurers, serving roughly 45 million medical members and operating as an independent licensee of the Blue Cross Blue Shield Association across 14 states. Its structure includes a commercial health benefits segment and the Carelon services division, which spans pharmacy benefit management, care delivery, and risk-based services.
In recent market activity, ELV has traded in a relatively narrow range after reporting third-quarter results, with shares moving modestly lower in the weeks following earnings. Revenue grew approximately 12% year over year, supported by premium growth and a strong contribution from Carelon, including roughly 20% growth in CarelonRx and accelerated expansion in Carelon Services. However, sentiment has been tempered by a declining benefit expense ratio, Medicaid margin compression, and management's expectation of at least a 125-basis-point decline in Medicaid margins. Analysts have maintained a broadly constructive view, with consensus recommendations in the "Outperform" range and price targets implying upside from recent levels.
MOH Overview and Recent Performance
Molina Healthcare, Inc. is a multi-state managed-care organization headquartered in Long Beach, California, focused primarily on low-income individuals and families through Medicaid, Medicare, and state insurance marketplace programs across 21 states.
Recent performance for MOH has been notably weaker. The company reported a quarterly adjusted loss driven by surging medical costs, unfavorable retroactive Medicaid adjustments in California, and elevated utilization in Medicare and Marketplace plans. Its consolidated medical care ratio (MCR, the share of premium revenue spent on medical care) rose sharply, and full-year adjusted earnings declined by roughly half versus the prior year. Management's guidance points to lower premium revenue and significantly reduced earnings expectations ahead, alongside plans to exit certain Medicare Advantage prescription drug products. The stock has fallen sharply over the past year, underperforming broader indices, and carries a more cautious sell-side outlook with multiple price-target reductions.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ most clearly in scale, diversification, and financial resilience. ELV pairs a broad commercial and government insurance book with a fast-growing services arm, providing multiple revenue streams and somewhat greater margin insulation. MOH is more concentrated in government-sponsored programs, which gives it exposure to secular growth in Medicaid and Medicare but also amplifies sensitivity to rate decisions, redeterminations, and policy shifts.
On recent momentum, ELV has demonstrated relative stability, with earnings still positive and analyst ratings leaning favorable. MOH has experienced a sustained downtrend, characterized by earnings misses, guidance reductions, and technical weakness. Risk factors overlap—both face medical cost inflation and ACA subsidy uncertainty—but the concentration of those risks is higher for MOH. In terms of market sentiment, ELV enjoys a more balanced institutional view, while MOH faces a more skeptical consensus despite selective contract wins such as a new Florida Medicaid award.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors—trend consistency, earnings stability, diversification, and relative positioning—Tickeron's AI would more likely favor ELV over MOH in the current environment. ELV exhibits steadier price behavior, positive earnings, and a more resilient business mix, whereas MOH currently shows a deteriorating earnings trend and weaker technical structure. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive, reflecting the possibility that improving Medicaid rate conditions or successful contract execution could alter the relative picture over time.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ELV is a Hold and MOH is a Hold.
ELV in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026
ELV moved above its 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 39 of 55 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 07, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ELV as a result. In 65 of 97 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ELV just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where ELV's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The 10-day moving average for ELV crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Following a +2.78% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ELV advanced for three days, in 182 of 321 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ELV declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
ELV broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for ELV entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. ELV’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 65 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.152) is normal, around the industry mean (3.582). P/E Ratio (19.642) is within average values for comparable stocks, (130.390). ELV's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.291) is slightly higher than the industry average of (0.786). Dividend Yield (0.015) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.453) is also within normal values, averaging (0.569).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ELV’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 99 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
MOH in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026
The 10-day moving average for MOH crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MOH as a result. In 51 of 82 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MOH just turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where MOH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
MOH moved above its 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +5.96% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MOH advanced for three days, in 211 of 316 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for MOH moved out of overbought territory on October 21, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 34 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 22 of the 34 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 65%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 12 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MOH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
MOH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for MOH entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. MOH’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 90 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 99 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.711) is normal, around the industry mean (3.582). MOH's P/E Ratio (1354.000) is considerably higher than the industry average of (130.390). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.880) is also within normal values, averaging (0.786). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.233) is also within normal values, averaging (0.569).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MOH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock worse than average.
ELV | MOH | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 28 | 26 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 65 Fair valued | 99 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 77 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 99 | 90 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 16 | 23 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 14 | 1 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ELV's Valuation (65) in the Managed Health Care industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MOH (99). This means that ELV’s stock grew somewhat faster than MOH’s over the last 12 months.
ELV's Profit vs Risk Rating (77) in the Managed Health Care industry is in the same range as MOH (100). This means that ELV’s stock grew similarly to MOH’s over the last 12 months.
MOH's SMR Rating (90) in the Managed Health Care industry is in the same range as ELV (99). This means that MOH’s stock grew similarly to ELV’s over the last 12 months.
ELV's Price Growth Rating (16) in the Managed Health Care industry is in the same range as MOH (23). This means that ELV’s stock grew similarly to MOH’s over the last 12 months.
MOH's P/E Growth Rating (1) in the Managed Health Care industry is in the same range as ELV (14). This means that MOH’s stock grew similarly to ELV’s over the last 12 months.
| ELV | MOH | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 62% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 70% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 72% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 57% | 4 days ago 67% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 23 days ago 56% | 23 days ago 64% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 73% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 62% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ELV’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while MOH’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- ELV’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- MOH’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ELV’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MOH’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ELV’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- MOH’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ELV (@Managed Health Care) experienced а +3.93% price change this week, while MOH (@Managed Health Care) price change was +1.95% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Managed Health Care industry was +1.74%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +9.02%, and the average quarterly price growth was +39.58%.
Reported Earning Dates
ELV is expected to report earnings on Jan 27, 2027.
MOH is expected to report earnings on Feb 10, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Managed Health Care (+1.74% weekly)Managed healthcare industry focuses on providing health/medical and disability insurance plans, generally intended to reduce the cost of for-profit health care. The insurance products might be provided through employer-paid (fully or partly) insurance and benefit programs, or through Medicare/Medicaid. Some of the largest providers of managed health care include Aetna, Humana Inc., and Cigna, and UnitedHealthcare.
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ELV and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ELV has been closely correlated with UNH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 67% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ELV jumps, then UNH could also see price increases.
MOH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MOH has been loosely correlated with CNC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 55% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MOH jumps, then CNC could also see price increases.
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