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ELV vs MOH
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Elevance Health (ELV) vs. Molina Healthcare (MOH) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Elevance Health (ELV) is a diversified healthcare benefits giant with approximately $198 billion in annual operating revenue, while Molina Healthcare (MOH) is a more focused government-sponsored managed care organization with roughly $45 billion in annual revenue.
- Both companies have faced significant medical cost pressures, but ELV's diversified platform and Carelon services business provide greater resilience compared to MOH's narrower Medicaid-centric model.
- MOH has experienced more severe earnings deterioration, with adjusted EPS (earnings per share) falling from $22.65 in 2024 to $11.03 in 2025, while ELV's decline from $33.04 to $30.29 was more moderate.
- ELV returns capital to shareholders through a dividend yield above 2% and an aggressive buyback program, whereas MOH offers no dividend and carries a below-investment-grade credit rating.
- Both companies are strategically reshaping their portfolios — ELV is exiting the standalone Part D market, and MOH is exiting its traditional Medicare Advantage Part D (MAPD) product — but ELV's scale and diversification give it a clearer path to recovery.
Introduction
Elevance Health and Molina Healthcare both operate at the intersection of government-sponsored healthcare and private managed care, yet they represent distinctly different investment profiles. ELV, formerly known as Anthem, is one of the largest health benefits companies in the United States, serving approximately 118 million people through a broad portfolio of medical, pharmacy, behavioral, and clinical solutions. MOH, by contrast, is a more specialized managed care organization focused primarily on Medicaid, Medicare, and Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace plans for low-income populations. For investors evaluating the managed care sector, comparing these two names offers a useful lens into the trade-offs between scale and diversification versus focused operational expertise — particularly during a period when both companies, and the broader industry, have been navigating elevated medical utilization and margin compression.
ELV Overview and Recent Performance
ELV operates through two primary segments: Health Benefits, which includes its Blue Cross Blue Shield plans and other health plan offerings, and Carelon, a growing healthcare services platform. This dual structure provides revenue diversification that pure-play insurers lack. In recent quarters, ELV has grappled with rising medical costs, particularly in its ACA health plans and Medicare business, where the benefit expense ratio — the percentage of premium revenue paid out in medical claims — reached 90.0% for full-year 2025, up 150 basis points from the prior year. Full-year 2025 adjusted diluted EPS came in at $30.29, down from $33.04 in 2024, and the company's initial 2026 outlook projects adjusted EPS of at least $25.50, reflecting continued cost pressures and a low-single-digit revenue decline. Despite these headwinds, ELV returned $4.1 billion to shareholders in 2025 through dividends and share repurchases, underscoring management's commitment to capital returns even in a challenging environment. The company is also strategically narrowing its Medicare footprint, exiting underperforming markets and the standalone Part D segment to protect profitability.
MOH Overview and Recent Performance
MOH has built its business around a disciplined, operationally focused model that excels at managing medical costs for complex, government-insured populations. The company served approximately 5.5 million members at the end of 2025, predominantly in Medicaid, with additional exposure to Medicare and Marketplace plans. However, recent quarters have exposed significant vulnerabilities. MOH's consolidated MCR (medical care ratio, which measures medical costs as a percentage of premium revenue) surged to 91.7% for full-year 2025, up from 89.1% a year earlier, and spiked to 94.6% in the fourth quarter alone. Full-year adjusted EPS dropped sharply to $11.03 from $22.65 in 2024, and the company reported an adjusted loss of $2.75 per share in Q4 2025 — burdened by approximately $2.00 per share in unfavorable retroactive premium adjustments tied to its California Medicaid business. MOH's 2026 guidance calls for adjusted EPS of at least $5.00, with management describing 2026 as a "trough year" for Medicaid industry margins. The company has announced it will exit its traditional MAPD product in 2027 to concentrate on its larger dual-eligible Medicare business. Adding to investor unease, MOH is also facing a securities class action lawsuit related to its 2025 guidance revisions.
Trending AI Robots
In a market environment as dynamic as the one shaping managed care stocks today, traders and investors are increasingly turning to algorithmic tools for data-driven decision-making. Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page features a curated selection of AI-powered trading bots, chosen from hundreds of available bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers. Only the bots demonstrating the strongest alignment with current market conditions earn a spot in this section. These bots span a wide range of trading styles — from swing trading and trend following to mean reversion and breakout strategies — with performance statistics, win rates, and trade frequency varying considerably across the roster. Some bots specialize in healthcare sector names, potentially including tickers like ELV and MOH, while others focus on entirely different industries. Exploring the Trending AI Robots page can help market participants identify which algorithmic strategies are currently capturing the most relevant signals in real time.
Head-to-Head Comparison
While both ELV and MOH compete in managed care, their business models diverge in ways that materially affect their risk profiles and recovery trajectories. ELV's $198 billion revenue base and diversified operations — spanning commercial employer plans, Medicare Advantage, Medicaid, and its Carelon health services platform — give it multiple levers to offset weakness in any single segment. MOH, with roughly $45 billion in revenue, is far more concentrated in government-sponsored programs, making it acutely sensitive to state-level contract decisions and Medicaid rate cycles. On the margin front, ELV's operating margin compression has been notable but contained, while MOH has seen its after-tax margin shrink to near zero on an adjusted basis heading into 2026. From a balance-sheet perspective, ELV maintains an investment-grade credit profile and substantial liquidity, whereas MOH carries a below-investment-grade (BB) rating and reported negative operating cash flow of $535 million in 2025. On the other hand, MOH's smaller size and focused operational model historically produced superior returns on equity (ROE) during favorable rate environments, and its "new store" embedded earnings pipeline suggests meaningful upside if Medicaid rate restoration materializes. Sentiment reflects these contrasts: ELV's stock has weathered the managed care downturn with a more moderate decline, while MOH has experienced steeper drawdowns and multiple analyst downgrades amid heightened uncertainty around its near-term earnings power.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings stability, balance-sheet strength, and business diversification, Tickeron's AI analysis would likely favor ELV over MOH in the current environment. ELV's broader revenue base, recurring shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks, investment-grade credit profile, and more moderate earnings variability offer a comparatively steadier trajectory. While both companies face sector-wide headwinds from elevated medical utilization and regulatory uncertainty, ELV's diversified platform provides more tools to manage through the cycle. MOH's deeply discounted valuation and significant embedded earnings potential could represent asymmetric upside if medical cost trends normalize and state rate actions improve — but the narrower path to recovery and higher near-term execution risk make it a more volatile proposition. As always, this assessment reflects probabilistic pattern analysis rather than a definitive forecast, and individual investors should consider their own objectives alongside the full spectrum of available data.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ELV is a Buy and MOH is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ELV’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileMOH’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- ELV’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- MOH’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ELV’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MOH’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ELV’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- MOH’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ELV (@Managed Health Care) experienced а -0.49% price change this week, while MOH (@Managed Health Care) price change was -0.98% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Managed Health Care industry was -2.68%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -9.13%, and the average quarterly price growth was +40.99%.
Reported Earning Dates
ELV is expected to report earnings on Oct 21, 2026.
MOH is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Managed Health Care (-2.68% weekly)Managed healthcare industry focuses on providing health/medical and disability insurance plans, generally intended to reduce the cost of for-profit health care. The insurance products might be provided through employer-paid (fully or partly) insurance and benefit programs, or through Medicare/Medicaid. Some of the largest providers of managed health care include Aetna, Humana Inc., and Cigna, and UnitedHealthcare.
| ELV | MOH | ELV / MOH | |
| Capitalization | 81.5B | 10.2B | 799% |
| EBITDA | N/A | 371M | - |
| Gain YTD | 8.314 | 12.723 | 65% |
| P/E Ratio | 16.62 | 1222.63 | 1% |
| Revenue | 201B | 44.5B | 452% |
| Total Cash | 36B | 8.92B | 404% |
| Total Debt | 31B | 3.95B | 784% |
ELV | MOH | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 83 | 52 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 6 Undervalued | 97 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 94 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 98 | 91 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 50 | 57 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 22 | 1 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ELV's Valuation (6) in the Managed Health Care industry is significantly better than the same rating for MOH (97). This means that ELV’s stock grew significantly faster than MOH’s over the last 12 months.
ELV's Profit vs Risk Rating (94) in the Managed Health Care industry is in the same range as MOH (100). This means that ELV’s stock grew similarly to MOH’s over the last 12 months.
MOH's SMR Rating (91) in the Managed Health Care industry is in the same range as ELV (98). This means that MOH’s stock grew similarly to ELV’s over the last 12 months.
ELV's Price Growth Rating (50) in the Managed Health Care industry is in the same range as MOH (57). This means that ELV’s stock grew similarly to MOH’s over the last 12 months.
MOH's P/E Growth Rating (1) in the Managed Health Care industry is in the same range as ELV (22). This means that MOH’s stock grew similarly to ELV’s over the last 12 months.
| ELV | MOH | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 4 days ago 64% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 62% | 4 days ago 71% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 62% | 4 days ago 68% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 65% | 4 days ago 49% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 58% | 4 days ago 65% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 56% | 4 days ago 64% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 56% | 7 days ago 67% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 57% | 5 days ago 63% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 70% | 4 days ago 72% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | N/A | 4 days ago 72% |
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ELV and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ELV has been loosely correlated with UNH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 64% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ELV jumps, then UNH could also see price increases.
MOH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MOH has been loosely correlated with CNC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 55% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MOH jumps, then CNC could also see price increases.