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ELV vs UNH
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Elevance Health (ELV) vs. UnitedHealth Group (UNH) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ELV and UNH are two of the largest U.S. health insurers, yet they are executing very different margin-recovery playbooks in the current environment.
- UNH is further along in its turnaround, having delivered several consecutive earnings beats and raised its full-year outlook three times this year.
- ELV is still working through negative Medicaid margins and membership pressure in government programs, though Medicare Advantage and its Carelon services unit are improving.
- Relative performance has favored UNH over recent months as it rebounds from a steep 2025 drawdown, while ELV has traded more steadily near its 52-week high.
- Both companies are prioritizing profitable margins over raw enrollment growth, a shared theme shaping the managed-care sector.
Introduction
Investors evaluating the managed-care space often weigh scale, growth, and margin durability. This stock comparison puts ELV (Elevance Health) alongside UNH (UnitedHealth Group), two of the largest U.S. health insurers by revenue and membership. While both operate in the same sector, their recent market positioning differs: one is navigating a well-publicized turnaround after a difficult 2025, while the other is managing a more gradual margin-recovery story. Growth-oriented investors, income seekers, and traders tracking sector rotation out of technology and into healthcare may all find this comparison useful. Understanding the contrasting catalysts and risk profiles behind each name can clarify how relative performance may evolve.
ELV Overview and Recent Performance
ELV, the company behind Elevance Health, is the second-largest U.S. health insurer and the largest licensee of Blue Cross Blue Shield branded coverage, operating in 14 states. It serves roughly 45 million medical members across employer, individual, and government-sponsored plans, and has been expanding its healthcare-services arm, Carelon. In recent weeks, the stock has traded near the upper end of its 52-week range after a broad healthcare-sector recovery, though its momentum has been choppier over the trailing quarter.
Recent performance has been defined by mixed margin signals. Management has described 2026 as a trough year for Medicaid margins, with a full-year operating margin outlook near negative 1.75% amid elevated utilization in behavioral health, specialty pharmacy, and outpatient surgery. Offsetting this, Medicare Advantage is on track for at least a 2% operating margin, and Carelon has scaled clinical programs with measurable cost savings. Analysts have responded with a generally constructive tone, and the consensus rating remains a Buy, reflecting expectations for a return to double-digit adjusted EPS (earnings per share) growth.
UNH Overview and Recent Performance
UNH, UnitedHealth Group, is the largest U.S. health insurer by revenue and membership, with a roughly 16% share of the domestic health-insurance market. It pairs its UnitedHealthcare insurance business with Optum, a diversified healthcare-services and pharmacy platform. The company has been executing a turnaround after shares fell sharply in 2025 on elevated medical costs, leadership changes, and regulatory scrutiny. In recent market activity, the stock has rebounded meaningfully, gaining roughly 17% to 21% year to date and outpacing the broader market.
The recovery has been driven by margin improvement rather than top-line growth. In its most recent quarterly report, UNH posted adjusted EPS well above estimates and raised its full-year outlook for the third time this year, citing lower-than-expected medical costs. Its medical care ratio (the share of premium revenue spent on care) improved, and both UnitedHealthcare and Optum expanded operating margins. Notably, membership has declined as the company deliberately exited less profitable plans, a trade-off that has supported profitability while leaving revenue growth subdued.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two names is where each sits in its margin-recovery cycle. UNH has already demonstrated multiple quarters of expanding margins and rising earnings estimates, giving it stronger recent earnings momentum. ELV, by comparison, is still contending with negative Medicaid margins and ongoing membership declines in government programs, which has kept its earnings trajectory more gradual.
On growth drivers, UNH leans on Optum's services and technology platform, while ELV leans on its Carelon businesses and its differentiated Blue Cross Blue Shield franchise. On risk factors, both face regulatory scrutiny, Medicare Advantage reimbursement pressure, and utilization uncertainty. However, UNH carries a larger, more diversified services footprint, whereas ELV offers a comparatively lower valuation and a smaller revenue base that can amplify margin improvement. Market sentiment currently appears more constructive toward UNH following its string of raised forecasts, while sentiment on ELV is steadier but more dependent on a 2027 margin inflection.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings momentum, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward UNH in the current environment. The stock has shown more consistent upward trend characteristics in recent months, backed by repeated guidance raises and improving margins, which algorithmic models tend to favor. ELV remains a credible candidate for a longer-horizon margin-recovery thesis, but its nearer-term catalysts are less firmly established. This assessment reflects probabilistic, data-driven positioning rather than a definitive prediction, and outcomes may shift as new earnings, regulatory, and utilization data emerge.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ELV is a Hold and UNH is a StrongBuy.
ELV in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026
ELV moved above its 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 39 of 55 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 07, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ELV as a result. In 65 of 97 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ELV just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where ELV's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The 10-day moving average for ELV crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Following a +2.78% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ELV advanced for three days, in 182 of 321 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ELV declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
ELV broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for ELV entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. ELV’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 65 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.098) is normal, around the industry mean (3.582). P/E Ratio (19.150) is within average values for comparable stocks, (130.390). ELV's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.291) is slightly higher than the industry average of (0.786). Dividend Yield (0.016) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.453) is also within normal values, averaging (0.569).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ELV’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 99 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
UNH's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for UNH turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where UNH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on UNH as a result. In 46 of 83 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
UNH moved above its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for UNH crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Following a +4.44% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UNH advanced for three days, in 182 of 331 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UNH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
UNH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for UNH entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. UNH’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 63 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.802) is normal, around the industry mean (3.582). P/E Ratio (26.731) is within average values for comparable stocks, (130.390). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.025) is also within normal values, averaging (0.786). UNH has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.022) as compared to the industry average of (0.009). P/S Ratio (0.757) is also within normal values, averaging (0.569).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. UNH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock worse than average.
ELV | UNH | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 28 | 17 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 65 Fair valued | 63 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 77 | 89 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 99 | 58 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 16 | 42 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 14 | 7 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
UNH's Valuation (63) in the Managed Health Care industry is in the same range as ELV (65). This means that UNH’s stock grew similarly to ELV’s over the last 12 months.
ELV's Profit vs Risk Rating (77) in the Managed Health Care industry is in the same range as UNH (89). This means that ELV’s stock grew similarly to UNH’s over the last 12 months.
UNH's SMR Rating (58) in the Managed Health Care industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ELV (99). This means that UNH’s stock grew somewhat faster than ELV’s over the last 12 months.
ELV's Price Growth Rating (16) in the Managed Health Care industry is in the same range as UNH (42). This means that ELV’s stock grew similarly to UNH’s over the last 12 months.
UNH's P/E Growth Rating (7) in the Managed Health Care industry is in the same range as ELV (14). This means that UNH’s stock grew similarly to ELV’s over the last 12 months.
| ELV | UNH | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 58% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 61% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 55% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 56% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 55% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 22 days ago 56% | 10 days ago 53% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 52% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 56% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ELV’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while UNH’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- ELV’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- UNH’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ELV’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UNH’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ELV’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- UNH’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ELV (@Managed Health Care) experienced а +3.93% price change this week, while UNH (@Managed Health Care) price change was +5.40% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Managed Health Care industry was +2.49%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +10.42%, and the average quarterly price growth was +42.97%.
Reported Earning Dates
ELV is expected to report earnings on Jan 27, 2027.
UNH is expected to report earnings on Jan 20, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Managed Health Care (+2.49% weekly)Managed healthcare industry focuses on providing health/medical and disability insurance plans, generally intended to reduce the cost of for-profit health care. The insurance products might be provided through employer-paid (fully or partly) insurance and benefit programs, or through Medicare/Medicaid. Some of the largest providers of managed health care include Aetna, Humana Inc., and Cigna, and UnitedHealthcare.
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UNH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UNH has been closely correlated with ELV. These tickers have moved in lockstep 67% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if UNH jumps, then ELV could also see price increases.