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EXE vs GPOR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) vs. Gulfport Energy Corporation (GPOR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) holds a significantly larger market capitalization of approximately $23 billion compared to Gulfport Energy Corporation's (GPOR) $3.4 billion, providing greater scale in the natural gas sector.
- Both stocks have experienced pullbacks of around 15% over recent weeks amid softer natural gas prices, with EXE declining from $114 to $96 and GPOR from $215 to $188.
- EXE offers a dividend yield of 3.3%, appealing to income-focused investors, while GPOR does not pay a dividend but emphasizes share repurchases.
- Year-to-date (YTD) returns show EXE at 12% and GPOR at 10%, reflecting resilient performance in a volatile energy market.
- Analyst price targets imply about 37% upside for EXE (to $132) and 30% for GPOR (to $244), with both maintaining Buy ratings.
- GPOR trades at a lower price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.7 versus EXE's 12.7, suggesting relatively better value.
Introduction
In the dynamic natural gas exploration and production (E&P) sector, Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) and Gulfport Energy Corporation (GPOR) offer compelling cases for comparison. Both companies focus on high-quality acreage in key U.S. shale plays, navigating influences like liquefied natural gas (LNG) export growth, data center power demand, and commodity price fluctuations. This analysis suits energy sector traders monitoring relative performance and investors assessing positioning amid recent market volatility. By examining recent trends, valuations, and catalysts, readers gain insights into potential trade-offs in this stock comparison.
EXE Overview and Recent Performance
Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) is an independent natural gas producer with assets in the Marcellus Shale (Pennsylvania), Utica Shale (Ohio and West Virginia), and Haynesville/Bossier Shales (Louisiana and Texas). Formerly Chesapeake Energy, it rebranded in late 2024 to emphasize expansion. In recent market activity, EXE shares have declined roughly 15% from mid-March highs near $114 to current levels around $96, reflecting broader natural gas price weakness and sector rotation. Sentiment has been tempered by analyst price target adjustments ahead of Q1 2026 earnings on April 28, yet potential LNG demand rebound and a low beta of 0.46 (indicating lower volatility than the market) support stability. Year-to-date gains stand at 12%, bolstered by a 3.3% dividend yield (annualized $3.19 per share).
GPOR Overview and Recent Performance
Gulfport Energy Corporation (GPOR) acquires, explores, and produces natural gas, oil, and natural gas liquids, primarily from the Utica and Marcellus shales in eastern Ohio and SCOOP (South Central Oklahoma Oil Province) Woodford/Springer formations. Recent stock behavior mirrors peers, with shares dropping about 13% from late March peaks above $215 to around $188, driven by similar commodity headwinds. Positive 2025 results, including strong adjusted EBITDA, and 2026 guidance for free cash flow (FCF) growth on $400-430 million capital spending have underpinned resilience. A beta of 0.59 reflects moderate market sensitivity, while YTD returns of 10% highlight steady performance despite no dividend; the company prioritizes share buybacks exceeding $140 million in Q1 2026.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both EXE and GPOR operate upstream business models centered on natural gas E&P, with overlapping Utica/Marcellus exposure but EXE adding Haynesville diversification. Growth drivers include efficient drilling for higher volumes at lower capital intensity in 2026, fueled by LNG exports and power demand. Recent momentum favors neither, as both lagged amid nat gas softness, though EXE’s scale yields steadier YTD returns. Risk factors are comparable—commodity volatility—with GPOR’s 43% debt-to-equity ratio versus EXE’s dividend providing income buffer. Sector exposure is pure nat gas, but GPOR’s lower P/E signals value, trading off against EXE’s liquidity and analyst upside.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors GPOR in this matchup, citing superior long-term value from a lower P/E ratio, projected 2026 FCF exceeding $500 million, and resilient Utica production amid nat gas rebound potential. While EXE offers scale and dividends, GPOR’s relative positioning and buyback discipline tilt probabilities higher for outperformance, subject to earnings outcomes and energy prices.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is EXE is a Hold and GPOR is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
EXE’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileGPOR’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- EXE’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- GPOR’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
EXE’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while GPOR’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- EXE’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- GPOR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
EXE (@Oil & Gas Production) experienced а -4.08% price change this week, while GPOR (@Oil & Gas Production) price change was -7.47% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil & Gas Production industry was -3.36%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +4.02%, and the average quarterly price growth was +34.67%.
Reported Earning Dates
EXE is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
GPOR is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil & Gas Production (-3.36% weekly)The oil and gas production segment includes companies that specialize in exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. These companies are focused on upstream operations. Companies typically identify deposits, drill wells, and extract raw materials from underground. The industry also includes related services like rig operations, feasibility studies, machinery rentals etc. Several operators in this industry work with various types of contractors such as engineering procurement and construction contractors, as well as with joint-venture partners and oil field service companies. Oil and gas often involves large fixed costs of production; so, declining crude oil prices, for example, is a potential negative for this industry. Conoco Phillips, EOG Resources, Inc. and Pioneer Natural Resources Company are some examples of companies operating in this space.
| EXE | GPOR | EXE / GPOR | |
| Capitalization | 23.1B | 3.24B | 713% |
| EBITDA | 7.31B | 1.12B | 652% |
| Gain YTD | -11.936 | -13.352 | 89% |
| P/E Ratio | 7.19 | 5.92 | 121% |
| Revenue | 14.4B | 1.43B | 1,005% |
| Total Cash | 2.22B | 2.92M | 76,001% |
| Total Debt | 5.06B | 824M | 614% |
EXE | GPOR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 7 | 68 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 94 Overvalued | 56 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 33 | 8 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 49 | 31 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 78 | 81 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 99 | 87 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 30 | 87 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
GPOR's Valuation (56) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for EXE (94) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that GPOR’s stock grew somewhat faster than EXE’s over the last 12 months.
GPOR's Profit vs Risk Rating (8) in the null industry is in the same range as EXE (33) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that GPOR’s stock grew similarly to EXE’s over the last 12 months.
GPOR's SMR Rating (31) in the null industry is in the same range as EXE (49) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that GPOR’s stock grew similarly to EXE’s over the last 12 months.
EXE's Price Growth Rating (78) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as GPOR (81) in the null industry. This means that EXE’s stock grew similarly to GPOR’s over the last 12 months.
GPOR's P/E Growth Rating (87) in the null industry is in the same range as EXE (99) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that GPOR’s stock grew similarly to EXE’s over the last 12 months.
| EXE | GPOR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 89% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 82% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 64% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 64% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 62% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 64% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 67% | 8 days ago 78% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 58% | 5 days ago 63% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 62% |
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| ROBN | 21.56 | 1.92 | +9.78% |
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| Cambria Global Asset Allocation ETF | |||
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| Invesco Advantage Municipal Income Trust II | |||
EXE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, EXE has been closely correlated with EQT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if EXE jumps, then EQT could also see price increases.