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FAST vs GWW
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Fastenal Company (FAST) vs. W.W. Grainger Inc. (GWW) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Scale Contrast: GWW generated $17.9 billion in 2025 revenue versus FAST's $8.2 billion, yet FAST delivered superior revenue growth of 8.7% compared to GWW's 4.5%.
- Profitability Edge: FAST maintains a notably higher net margin (approximately 15.3%) and operating margin (20.2%), while GWW's adjusted operating margin sits at 15.0% with substantial scale advantages.
- Market Momentum Divergence: Over the past year, GWW shares have rallied roughly 32%, dramatically outpacing FAST's flat return of approximately 1%, reflecting divergent market sentiment.
- Digital and Segment Dynamics: FAST's digital footprint now exceeds 61% of total sales, while GWW's Endless Assortment segment (Zoro and MonotaRO) posted 14.3% quarterly growth, highlighting execution in e-commerce channels for both firms.
- Balance Sheet Profiles: FAST operates with minimal leverage (debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 0.05), whereas GWW carries a moderate debt load (debt-to-equity near 0.63), giving FAST a conservative capital structure advantage.
- Analyst Sentiment: FAST recently received underwhelming ratings from multiple research firms amid margin concerns, while GWW's 2026 guidance projects 7% to 13% EPS (earnings per share) growth, reinforcing a more optimistic near-term outlook.
Introduction
Fastenal Company and W.W. Grainger Inc. are two of the most prominent names in the industrial and construction supply distribution space, yet they occupy meaningfully different niches within it. Both serve manufacturing, construction, and maintenance markets across North America and beyond, but their scale, product mix, and growth strategies diverge in ways that shape their respective investment profiles. This comparison is particularly relevant for investors seeking exposure to the industrial supply chain sector — whether they prioritize high-margin operational efficiency (FAST) or diversified scale and e-commerce expansion (GWW). By examining recent performance, business models, and market positioning, this article provides a balanced, data-driven look at how these two stocks stack up in the current market environment.
FAST Overview and Recent Performance
FAST — Fastenal Company — is a Winona, Minnesota-based wholesale distributor of industrial and construction supplies. Its product portfolio spans fasteners (threaded bolts, nuts, screws, and related hardware), safety supplies, and a broad range of other product lines including tools, janitorial supplies, and cutting tools. Fastenal operates through a network of approximately 3,268 in-market locations and 16 distribution centers, primarily serving the manufacturing and non-residential construction markets in the United States, Canada, and Mexico.
In recent market activity, FAST delivered full-year 2025 revenue of $8.2 billion, representing an 8.7% year-over-year increase. The company's fourth-quarter daily sales rate (DSR) grew 11.1%, supported by improved customer contract signings and strong demand from heavy manufacturing and other manufacturing end markets. Net earnings for 2025 reached $1.26 billion, with diluted EPS of $1.09. However, gross margin experienced modest compression — declining approximately 50 basis points in the fourth quarter — as tariff-related cost increases and product mix shifts weighed on profitability. The company's digital footprint, which includes FMI (Fastenal Managed Inventory) vending devices and e-business platforms, accounted for over 61% of total sales, underscoring its technology-driven distribution model. Despite solid top-line momentum, shares have underperformed recently, with analyst downgrades from Wolfe Research and Bernstein citing margin pressure, slowing contract conversion momentum, and an elevated valuation relative to historical averages.
GWW Overview and Recent Performance
GWW — W.W. Grainger Inc. — is a Lake Forest, Illinois-based distributor of MRO (maintenance, repair, and operations) products and services. The company operates through two distinct segments: High-Touch Solutions North America, which provides a comprehensive range of MRO supplies through a network of branches and dedicated sales representatives, and Endless Assortment, which encompasses the Zoro (U.S.) and MonotaRO (Japan) e-commerce platforms offering millions of products with a digital-first, low-touch model.
Grainger reported full-year 2025 sales of $17.9 billion, a 4.5% increase from the prior year. On an adjusted basis, diluted EPS reached $39.48, up 1.3% year-over-year, while the company generated $2.0 billion in operating cash flow and returned $1.5 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. The Endless Assortment segment continued to be a standout performer, with fourth-quarter sales growth of 14.3% and operating margin expansion of 200 basis points year-over-year. The High-Touch Solutions segment posted more modest growth of 2.2%, reflecting cautious industrial demand and tariff-related headwinds. Grainger's adjusted operating margin for the full year was 15.0%, down 50 basis points from 2024, partly reflecting LIFO (last-in, first-out) inventory valuation impacts and the strategic exit from the U.K. market during the year. Looking ahead, management's 2026 guidance calls for sales of $18.7 billion to $19.1 billion and EPS in the $42.25 to $44.75 range, signaling confidence in accelerating organic growth.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
While both FAST and GWW operate within the industrial supply distribution sector, their business models reveal distinct strategic emphases. Fastenal runs a lean, high-margin operation centered on vending-enabled, on-site inventory solutions for manufacturing customers, which translates into a 20.2% operating margin — roughly 500 basis points above Grainger's adjusted 15.0%. Grainger, by contrast, sacrifices some margin for sheer scale: its $17.9 billion revenue base is more than double Fastenal's, and its Endless Assortment segment provides exposure to high-growth digital commerce in both North America and Japan.
Growth drivers also differ meaningfully. FAST's recent top-line acceleration has been fueled by the fastener expansion project, robust contract signings with large national accounts, and pricing actions tied to tariff pass-throughs. However, analysts have questioned the sustainability of this momentum, noting that tariff-driven pricing contributions may moderate and that FMI device signings declined 12.1% in the fourth quarter. GWW's growth story leans more heavily on its Endless Assortment platforms, where Zoro and MonotaRO continue to deliver double-digit sales increases and margin improvements. The High-Touch Solutions segment provides steady, if slower, organic growth.
On risk factors, FAST's concentrated exposure to U.S. heavy manufacturing — which represented roughly 43% of sales — makes it more sensitive to industrial production cycles and trade policy uncertainty. GWW's broader end-market diversification and geographic reach (including a significant presence in Japan through MonotaRO) provide somewhat more balanced exposure. From a balance sheet perspective, FAST's near-zero debt position offers resilience during downturns, while GWW's moderate leverage supports an aggressive share buyback program that has been accretive to EPS.
Market sentiment has diverged sharply. GWW's one-year share price gain of approximately 32% reflects investor confidence in its digital growth trajectory and capital return strategy, whereas FAST's essentially flat performance over the same period suggests the market has already priced in much of its operational excellence and is now weighing margin and growth sustainability concerns.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, relative positioning, and catalyst profiles, Tickeron's AI would likely lean in favor of GWW in the current environment. The combination of sustained momentum in the Endless Assortment segment, a clearly communicated 2026 growth outlook projecting 7% to 13% EPS expansion, and a share price trending above key moving averages on a one-year basis suggests stronger technical and fundamental alignment. While FAST remains a high-quality compounder with best-in-class margins and an asset-light balance sheet, the recent pattern of analyst downgrades, gross margin compression, and decelerating device signings introduces enough uncertainty to tilt the probabilistic assessment toward GWW. That said, this is not a definitive call; both stocks possess durable competitive advantages, and the relative calculus could shift quickly if industrial production data improves or tariff conditions stabilize. The AI's assessment reflects a probability-weighted preference, not a guaranteed outcome.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FAST is a StrongBuy and GWW is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FAST’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileGWW’s FA Score has 4 green FA rating(s).
- FAST’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- GWW’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FAST’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while GWW’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FAST’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- GWW’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
FAST (@Electronics Distributors) experienced а +3.36% price change this week, while GWW (@Electronics Distributors) price change was -0.89% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronics Distributors industry was -1.20%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.03%, and the average quarterly price growth was +1.64%.
Reported Earning Dates
FAST is expected to report earnings on Oct 14, 2026.
GWW is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronics Distributors (-1.20% weekly)Electronics distributors are companies that are involved in distribution of one or more of the following: electronic components, computer products/ peripherals and software products & services. Several electronics distributors are also becoming the point of contact for technical/pre- & post-sale support in many cases, in an attempt to bolster their position in the market. Tariffs and/or cross-border trade barriers are some of the potential threats to the electronics supply chain, but that could also potentially lead to re-directing to markets where tariffs/restrictions are lower depending on demand. The industry is also vulnerable in the event of economic slowdowns. Arrow Electronics, Inc., SYNNEX Corporation and Versum Materials, Inc. are some of the major electronics distributors in the U.S.
| FAST | GWW | FAST / GWW | |
| Capitalization | 54B | 65.3B | 83% |
| EBITDA | 1.9B | 2.88B | 66% |
| Gain YTD | 18.445 | 37.557 | 49% |
| P/E Ratio | 40.19 | 37.18 | 108% |
| Revenue | 8.44B | 18.4B | 46% |
| Total Cash | 309M | 695M | 44% |
| Total Debt | 446M | 2.78B | 16% |
FAST | GWW | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 79 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 76 Overvalued | 90 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 64 | 9 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 30 | 21 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 33 | 12 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 64 | 23 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 65 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
FAST's Valuation (76) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is in the same range as GWW (90). This means that FAST’s stock grew similarly to GWW’s over the last 12 months.
GWW's Profit vs Risk Rating (9) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for FAST (64). This means that GWW’s stock grew somewhat faster than FAST’s over the last 12 months.
GWW's SMR Rating (21) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is in the same range as FAST (30). This means that GWW’s stock grew similarly to FAST’s over the last 12 months.
GWW's Price Growth Rating (12) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is in the same range as FAST (33). This means that GWW’s stock grew similarly to FAST’s over the last 12 months.
GWW's P/E Growth Rating (23) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for FAST (64). This means that GWW’s stock grew somewhat faster than FAST’s over the last 12 months.
| FAST | GWW | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 4 days ago 40% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 62% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | N/A |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 46% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 50% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 62% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 62% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 49% | 5 days ago 48% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 46% | 3 days ago 38% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 50% |
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FAST and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FAST has been loosely correlated with WSO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 42% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if FAST jumps, then WSO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To FAST | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAST | 100% | +1.89% | ||
| WSO - FAST | 42% Loosely correlated | +0.60% | ||
| BXC - FAST | 40% Loosely correlated | +1.76% | ||
| QXO - FAST | 38% Loosely correlated | -1.16% | ||
| WCC - FAST | 35% Loosely correlated | +0.55% | ||
| SITE - FAST | 33% Loosely correlated | +1.25% | ||
More | ||||
GWW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GWW has been loosely correlated with FAST. These tickers have moved in lockstep 58% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if GWW jumps, then FAST could also see price increases.