Advertisement
FAST vs GWW
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Fastenal Company (FAST) vs. W.W. Grainger, Inc. (GWW) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- FAST (Fastenal) delivered double-digit sales and earnings growth in recent quarters, but its shares dipped after it trimmed full-year device-signing targets.
- GWW (W.W. Grainger) has raised its full-year guidance multiple times in 2026 on broad-based demand and expanding margins.
- Both are industrial distributors, but Fastenal skews toward manufacturing and fasteners, while Grainger is a broad-line MRO (maintenance, repair, and operations) supplier with a larger e-commerce presence.
- Grainger has posted stronger relative performance, while Fastenal trades near its 52-week high but faces mix-driven gross margin pressure.
- The two companies serve overlapping customers yet carry distinct growth drivers, risk profiles, and market positioning.
Introduction
Fastenal Company and W.W. Grainger, Inc. are two of the most closely watched names in industrial distribution, and comparing them offers a useful lens on the health of the broader manufacturing and MRO economy. Both companies supply the fasteners, safety products, and operating supplies that keep factories and facilities running, yet they differ meaningfully in scale, strategy, and end-market exposure. This stock comparison is particularly relevant for investors weighing two quality industrial compounders that have both benefited from resilient industrial demand, pricing actions, and digital initiatives. Understanding their relative performance, growth drivers, and risk factors can help traders and long-term investors assess which business is better positioned in the current market environment.
FAST Overview and Recent Performance
Fastenal Company is a distributor of industrial and construction supplies, best known for its fasteners, safety products, and cutting tools, supported by a network of branch locations and on-site customer locations. A defining feature of its model is its technology-enabled supply solutions, including FASTBin and FASTVend industrial vending and inventory-management devices, which deepen customer relationships and drive recurring revenue.
In recent weeks, Fastenal reported quarterly results that exceeded earnings expectations, with net sales rising roughly 15% year over year and net income growing nearly 20%. Manufacturing, and heavy manufacturing in particular, remains the dominant demand driver, accounting for a large share of revenue. However, the company also trimmed its full-year target for new device signings, a signal that investors interpreted cautiously, and shares pulled back following the report despite the earnings beat. Gross margin has faced modest pressure from a mix shift toward larger customers, even as operating margin continues to benefit from expense leverage and productivity gains. The stock has nonetheless climbed more than 20% year to date and trades near its recent highs.
GWW Overview and Recent Performance
W.W. Grainger, Inc. is a leading broad-line distributor of MRO products, operating primarily in North America and Japan and serving more than 4.6 million customers. Its business is organized into two segments: High-Touch Solutions North America, a traditional distribution model, and Endless Assortment, which includes the Zoro and MonotaRO digital platforms and has been a faster-growing portion of the portfolio.
Recent market activity has favored Grainger, which has delivered a string of earnings beats and raised its full-year outlook on multiple occasions during 2026. Growth has been broad-based across manufacturing, government, and contractor customers, with the Endless Assortment segment outpacing the rest of the company. Grainger has also benefited from disciplined pricing, favorable product mix, and tariff refunds that supported gross margin, while its operating margin expanded year over year. Reflecting this momentum, the stock has gained strongly over the past year and has outperformed its industry. Analysts have responded with a series of upward price-target revisions, though some view the current valuation as already pricing in much of the execution story.
Trending AI Robots
For investors seeking a data-driven approach to names like FAST and GWW, Tickeron offers a curated selection of AI-powered trading tools. Tickeron maintains hundreds of AI Trading Bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, but only the strongest performers suited to current market conditions earn a place in its Trending AI Robots section. These bots vary widely in trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance statistics, and the tickers they cover, allowing users to explore approaches that range from short-term momentum to longer-horizon positioning. The curated list highlights bots demonstrating standout results, giving traders a practical starting point for identifying strategies aligned with today's market. To see which automated strategies are currently leading, visit the Trending AI Robots page and review the latest top performers.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two stocks lies in business model and scale. Grainger operates a far larger revenue base — well above $19 billion in projected annual sales — split between a traditional high-touch branch network and fast-growing digital platforms. Fastenal is smaller and more narrowly focused on fasteners and manufacturing-centric supplies, with a heavier reliance on on-site vending and embedded customer relationships.
Growth drivers also differ. Fastenal's momentum is tied closely to industrial production, heavy manufacturing, and the pace of new device signings, which makes it somewhat sensitive to capital-spending cycles. Grainger benefits from a more diversified end-market base and a structurally faster-growing e-commerce segment, giving it a more balanced growth profile. On momentum and sentiment, Grainger has the edge, with repeated guidance increases and stronger relative performance, while Fastenal's recent guidance tweak and gross margin mix pressure have introduced some near-term caution.
Risk factors present a trade-off as well. Fastenal's gross margin is being pressured by a rising mix of large, lower-margin accounts, while Grainger navigates tariff pass-through, fuel costs, and a valuation that has expanded considerably. Both face macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, but Grainger's breadth and digital optionality offer a degree of diversification that Fastenal's manufacturing concentration does not.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings momentum, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor GWW in the current environment. Grainger has demonstrated more consistent execution, with multiple upward guidance revisions, margin expansion across both segments, and stronger relative price performance. Fastenal remains a high-quality operator with solid fundamentals, but its recent guidance adjustment and ongoing gross margin mix pressure introduce comparatively greater uncertainty. That said, this is a probabilistic assessment rather than a definitive ranking, and the relative picture can shift with each quarterly report. Traders and investors should weigh these dynamics against their own time horizon and risk tolerance when evaluating market positioning.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FAST is a Buy and GWW is a StrongBuy.
Momentum Indicator for FAST turns positive, indicating new upward trend
FAST saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 09, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 83 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 58 of the 83 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 70%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for FAST just turned positive on September 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where FAST's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
FAST moved above its 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +2.09% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FAST advanced for three days, in 213 of 336 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FAST declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
FAST broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. FAST’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 30 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 66, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 91 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: FAST's P/B Ratio (14.538) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (4.085). P/E Ratio (43.686) is within average values for comparable stocks, (0.574). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.357) is also within normal values, averaging (2.538). Dividend Yield (0.020) settles around the average of (0.492) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.447) is also within normal values, averaging (3.013).
GWW's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GWW turned positive on October 01, 2026. Looking at past instances where GWW's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GWW as a result. In 59 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
GWW moved above its 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for GWW crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Following a +1.80% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GWW advanced for three days, in 199 of 336 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 106 of 235 cases where GWW Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 45%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for GWW moved out of overbought territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 18 of the 44 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 41%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GWW declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 47%.
GWW broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 66, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GWW’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: GWW's P/B Ratio (15.309) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (4.085). P/E Ratio (34.175) is within average values for comparable stocks, (0.574). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.712) is also within normal values, averaging (2.538). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.492) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.175) is also within normal values, averaging (3.013).
FAST | GWW | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 42 | 35 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 91 Overvalued | 88 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 56 | 6 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 30 | 21 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 23 | 41 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 28 | 12 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
GWW's Valuation (88) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is in the same range as FAST (91). This means that GWW’s stock grew similarly to FAST’s over the last 12 months.
GWW's Profit vs Risk Rating (6) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for FAST (56). This means that GWW’s stock grew somewhat faster than FAST’s over the last 12 months.
GWW's SMR Rating (21) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is in the same range as FAST (30). This means that GWW’s stock grew similarly to FAST’s over the last 12 months.
FAST's Price Growth Rating (23) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is in the same range as GWW (41). This means that FAST’s stock grew similarly to GWW’s over the last 12 months.
GWW's P/E Growth Rating (12) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is in the same range as FAST (28). This means that GWW’s stock grew similarly to FAST’s over the last 12 months.
| FAST | GWW | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 41% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 39% | 1 day ago 41% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 69% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 63% | 1 day ago 70% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 61% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 63% | 6 days ago 59% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 28 days ago 49% | 9 days ago 47% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 47% | 1 day ago 50% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 45% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FAST’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while GWW’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- FAST’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- GWW’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FAST’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while GWW’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FAST’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
- GWW’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
FAST (@Electronics Distributors) experienced а -0.19% price change this week, while GWW (@Electronics Distributors) price change was +0.51% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronics Distributors industry was +0.86%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.96%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.58%.
Reported Earning Dates
FAST is expected to report earnings on Jan 19, 2027.
GWW is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronics Distributors (+0.86% weekly)Electronics distributors are companies that are involved in distribution of one or more of the following: electronic components, computer products/ peripherals and software products & services. Several electronics distributors are also becoming the point of contact for technical/pre- & post-sale support in many cases, in an attempt to bolster their position in the market. Tariffs and/or cross-border trade barriers are some of the potential threats to the electronics supply chain, but that could also potentially lead to re-directing to markets where tariffs/restrictions are lower depending on demand. The industry is also vulnerable in the event of economic slowdowns. Arrow Electronics, Inc., SYNNEX Corporation and Versum Materials, Inc. are some of the major electronics distributors in the U.S.
Advertisement
FAST and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FAST has been loosely correlated with GWW. These tickers have moved in lockstep 55% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if FAST jumps, then GWW could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To FAST | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAST | 100% | -1.75% | ||
| GWW - FAST | 55% Loosely correlated | -1.10% | ||
| FERG - FAST | 46% Loosely correlated | +0.02% | ||
| WSO - FAST | 42% Loosely correlated | -1.41% | ||
| CNM - FAST | 39% Loosely correlated | -0.07% | ||
| QXO - FAST | 38% Loosely correlated | +1.53% | ||
More | ||||
GWW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GWW has been loosely correlated with AIT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 47% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if GWW jumps, then AIT could also see price increases.