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FAST vs QXO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Fastenal Company (FAST) vs. QXO, Inc. (QXO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- FAST is an established industrial distributor with strong recent momentum, rising roughly 28% year to date and trading near its 52-week high.
- QXO is an acquisitive building-products distributor in a rapid scale-up phase, with shares down more than 50% over the past six months despite sharply higher revenue.
- Fastenal's relative performance reflects consistent earnings growth and margin expansion, while QXO's story is driven by large M&A (mergers and acquisitions) and long-term revenue targets.
- The two companies have fundamentally different risk profiles: a profitable, cash-generating incumbent versus a higher-debt growth platform still posting net losses.
- On observable trend consistency and stability, the data currently tilts in FAST's favor, though QXO carries a larger potential catalyst set.
Introduction
Investors weighing industrial distribution against an aggressive building-materials roll-up face a sharp contrast in Fastenal Company (FAST) and QXO, Inc. (QXO). Fastenal is a mature, profitable supplier of fasteners and industrial supplies with a long operating history, while QXO is a rapidly assembled building-products distributor led by serial dealmaker Brad Jacobs. This stock comparison is relevant for both value-oriented investors seeking stability and growth-oriented traders evaluating high-risk, high-reward repositioning stories. Understanding their differing business models, recent momentum, and market positioning helps clarify which profile may suit a given strategy in the current market environment.
FAST Overview and Recent Performance
Fastenal Company distributes fasteners, safety supplies, and cutting tools through a network serving manufacturing and construction customers, functioning as a widely followed bellwether for the industrial economy. In recent weeks, FAST has demonstrated solid relative performance, gaining roughly 28% since the start of the year and trading near its 52-week high.
The company's most recent quarterly results showed daily sales growth of 15.5% year over year, with operating margin expanding about 90 basis points to 21.5%. Earnings per share rose roughly 20%, supported by key-account wins, new contract signings, and cost discipline. Growth has been concentrated in larger customers, and its "Digital Footprint" — combining managed-inventory devices and eBusiness (electronic transactions) — accounted for about 61% of sales. Sentiment has been broadly positive, though the stock's elevated valuation of roughly 37 times forward earnings means even solid results can trigger modest profit-taking.
QXO Overview and Recent Performance
QXO, Inc. is a technology-enabled distributor of roofing, waterproofing, and complementary building products. The company has pursued an ambitious consolidation strategy, recently closing a $2.25 billion acquisition of Kodiak Building Partners and a roughly $15 billion acquisition of TopBuild, which positioned QXO as the second-largest publicly traded building-products distributor in North America. Management has stated a goal of reaching $50 billion in annual revenue within a decade.
In recent market activity, QXO shares have declined more than 50% over the past six months, even as revenue expanded sharply — second-quarter net sales rose about 70% year over year to roughly $3.25 billion. The company continues to report net losses as it integrates acquisitions and invests in technology, sales capacity, and systems, and its adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) margin has compressed. Elevated debt, integration complexity, and uneven construction demand are among the factors weighing on sentiment, despite meaningful top-line growth.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between these two stocks is business maturity versus transformation. Fastenal operates a profitable, asset-light distribution model that generates strong free cash flow, returns capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, and carries minimal debt. QXO, by contrast, is assembling scale through debt-financed acquisitions, which has expanded revenue dramatically but at the cost of near-term profitability and a heavier balance sheet.
Their growth drivers also differ. Fastenal's momentum comes from share gains, key-account expansion, and digital adoption within existing industrial end markets. QXO's growth is inorganic, driven by M&A and potential cross-selling and synergy capture across recently acquired businesses. On risk, Fastenal is exposed to industrial production cycles and a premium valuation, while QXO faces integration execution risk, higher leverage, and a still-developing earnings track record. In terms of market sentiment, Fastenal's relative performance has been stronger and steadier, whereas QXO trades with elevated volatility and a more polarized investor view.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor FAST over QXO in the current environment. Fastenal exhibits a more consistent upward trend, positive and expanding margins, and lower balance-sheet risk, all of which tend to align with trend-following and stability-oriented signals. QXO offers a larger catalyst set tied to its integration strategy and long-term revenue ambitions, but its negative momentum and ongoing net losses suggest a less favorable near-term profile. This assessment reflects a probabilistic view of current market positioning rather than a definitive prediction.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FAST is a Buy and QXO is a Hold.
Momentum Indicator for FAST turns positive, indicating new upward trend
FAST saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 09, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 83 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 58 of the 83 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 70%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for FAST just turned positive on September 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where FAST's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
FAST moved above its 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +2.09% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FAST advanced for three days, in 213 of 336 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FAST declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
FAST broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. FAST’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 27 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 30 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 66, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 93 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: FAST's P/B Ratio (14.871) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (4.092). P/E Ratio (44.686) is within average values for comparable stocks, (1.310). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.357) is also within normal values, averaging (2.538). Dividend Yield (0.020) settles around the average of (0.500) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.447) is also within normal values, averaging (3.013).
QXO's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for QXO entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 210 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 177 of the 210 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 84%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on QXO as a result. In 75 of 91 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where QXO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where QXO's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 28 of 30 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 53 of 62 cases where QXO's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for QXO just turned positive on October 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where QXO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
Following a +3.16% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where QXO advanced for three days, in 218 of 259 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
QXO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 1 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.148) is normal, around the industry mean (4.092). P/E Ratio (-11.207) is within average values for comparable stocks, (1.310). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.947) is also within normal values, averaging (2.538). QXO's Dividend Yield (10.149) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.500). P/S Ratio (0.839) is also within normal values, averaging (3.013).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 84 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. QXO’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 93 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. QXO’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 66, placing this stock worse than average.
FAST | QXO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 40 | 71 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 93 Overvalued | 1 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 55 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 30 | 93 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 20 | 84 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 27 | 100 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
QXO's Valuation (1) in the Information Technology Services industry is significantly better than the same rating for FAST (93) in the Wholesale Distributors industry. This means that QXO’s stock grew significantly faster than FAST’s over the last 12 months.
FAST's Profit vs Risk Rating (55) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for QXO (100) in the Information Technology Services industry. This means that FAST’s stock grew somewhat faster than QXO’s over the last 12 months.
FAST's SMR Rating (30) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for QXO (93) in the Information Technology Services industry. This means that FAST’s stock grew somewhat faster than QXO’s over the last 12 months.
FAST's Price Growth Rating (20) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for QXO (84) in the Information Technology Services industry. This means that FAST’s stock grew somewhat faster than QXO’s over the last 12 months.
FAST's P/E Growth Rating (27) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is significantly better than the same rating for QXO (100) in the Information Technology Services industry. This means that FAST’s stock grew significantly faster than QXO’s over the last 12 months.
| FAST | QXO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 85% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 82% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 84% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 76% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 76% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 21 days ago 84% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 23 days ago 49% | 4 days ago 76% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 84% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 84% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FAST’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while QXO’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- FAST’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- QXO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FAST’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while QXO’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FAST’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
- QXO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
FAST (@Electronics Distributors) experienced а +0.94% price change this week, while QXO (@Electronics Distributors) price change was -0.19% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronics Distributors industry was +0.02%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.32%, and the average quarterly price growth was +6.73%.
Reported Earning Dates
FAST is expected to report earnings on Jan 19, 2027.
QXO is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronics Distributors (+0.02% weekly)Electronics distributors are companies that are involved in distribution of one or more of the following: electronic components, computer products/ peripherals and software products & services. Several electronics distributors are also becoming the point of contact for technical/pre- & post-sale support in many cases, in an attempt to bolster their position in the market. Tariffs and/or cross-border trade barriers are some of the potential threats to the electronics supply chain, but that could also potentially lead to re-directing to markets where tariffs/restrictions are lower depending on demand. The industry is also vulnerable in the event of economic slowdowns. Arrow Electronics, Inc., SYNNEX Corporation and Versum Materials, Inc. are some of the major electronics distributors in the U.S.
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FAST and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FAST has been loosely correlated with GWW. These tickers have moved in lockstep 55% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if FAST jumps, then GWW could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To FAST | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAST | 100% | +0.46% | ||
| GWW - FAST | 55% Loosely correlated | +0.61% | ||
| FERG - FAST | 47% Loosely correlated | -0.29% | ||
| WSO - FAST | 42% Loosely correlated | +7.22% | ||
| QXO - FAST | 41% Loosely correlated | +6.89% | ||
| CNM - FAST | 39% Loosely correlated | +2.17% | ||
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QXO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, QXO has been loosely correlated with SITE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 54% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if QXO jumps, then SITE could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To QXO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QXO | 100% | +6.89% | ||
| SITE - QXO | 54% Loosely correlated | +5.87% | ||
| CNM - QXO | 53% Loosely correlated | +2.17% | ||
| BXC - QXO | 51% Loosely correlated | +6.30% | ||
| FERG - QXO | 51% Loosely correlated | -0.29% | ||
| WCC - QXO | 50% Loosely correlated | -7.23% | ||
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