Advertisement
FAST vs WSO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Fastenal (FAST) vs. Watsco (WSO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Fastenal (FAST) is a diversified industrial and construction supplies distributor, while Watsco (WSO) is North America's largest distributor of heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and refrigeration (HVAC/R) equipment.
- FAST has delivered double-digit sales growth and expanding operating margins in recent quarters, driven by contract wins and digital adoption, whereas WSO's growth has been flatter amid a post-transition normalization in HVAC demand.
- Both companies are shareholder-friendly dividend payers, but their growth drivers, margins, and sector exposures differ meaningfully.
- FAST's momentum reflects manufacturing share gains, while WSO's positioning leans on HVAC replacement demand, acquisitions, and seasonal factors.
- Relative performance has favored FAST in the recent period, supported by more consistent revenue momentum and operating leverage.
Introduction
Fastenal (FAST) and Watsco (WSO) are both established North American distribution businesses, but they serve very different end markets. FAST supplies industrial and construction fasteners, safety products, and maintenance materials, while WSO distributes HVAC/R equipment to contractors. This stock comparison is relevant for investors and traders evaluating two quality compounders with distinct cyclical drivers, margin profiles, and growth narratives. Understanding their relative performance and market positioning can help clarify which profile better fits current economic conditions and an investor's risk tolerance.
FAST Overview and Recent Performance
Fastenal Company is a leading wholesale distributor of industrial and construction supplies operating across the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Its business model centers on on-site and key-account relationships, supported by automated inventory solutions such as FASTBin and FASTVend vending technology.
In recent market activity, FAST has shown notable momentum. Its most recent quarterly results reflected net sales growth of roughly 15% year over year, with earnings per share (EPS) expanding nearly 20%, as contract customer wins and pricing actions supported top-line growth. Operating margin improved, while gross margin faced modest pressure from a mix shift toward larger customers. Management modestly trimmed full-year device-signing targets, which tempered near-term sentiment, but the stock has still traded near its 52-week high and posted a strong year-to-date gain. Heavy manufacturing, data centers, and digital footprint expansion have been key growth catalysts.
WSO Overview and Recent Performance
Watsco, Inc. is the largest distributor in the fragmented North American HVAC/R market, with a customer base spanning more than 120,000 contractors and dealers. Its growth combines organic expansion with a long-running "buy and build" acquisition strategy, alongside investments in e-commerce and digital platforms such as OnCallAir.
Recent performance for WSO has been more measured. Results in recent quarters showed roughly flat year-over-year revenue and slightly lower EPS, as the company navigated the maturing transition to A2L refrigerant products and softer replacement demand. Gross margin eased modestly, and operating margin held near prior-year levels. Management has characterized the environment as stabilizing and more normalized heading into the seasonal selling period. Watsco has continued to deploy capital through acquisitions and raised its dividend, but its stock experienced pressure following recent earnings, reflecting concerns about volume trends and margin durability.
Trending AI Robots
For traders seeking a data-driven edge, Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page highlights a curated selection of its AI-powered trading bots. Tickeron offers hundreds of AI trading bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, but only those best suited to current market conditions earn a place in this featured section. These bots vary widely in trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance statistics, and the specific tickers they trade, allowing users to explore approaches ranging from short-term momentum to longer-horizon trend following. Reviewing the Trending AI Robots can help investors identify systematically generated signals across names such as FAST and WSO.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ most sharply in growth drivers and cyclicality. FAST benefits from industrial production trends and share gains with large manufacturing accounts, giving it a relatively broad and diversified demand base with a higher operating margin (above 20%). WSO, by contrast, is tied to residential and light-commercial HVAC replacement, which is seasonal and sensitive to housing activity, weather, and consumer spending; its operating margin is structurally lower (in the low-to-mid single digits) but supported by a premium franchise position.
On momentum, FAST has shown more consistent revenue acceleration, while WSO has been stabilizing after a disruptive product transition and several acquisitions, including recent distribution deals that broaden its footprint. Risk factors also diverge: FAST faces margin pressure from larger-customer mix and tariff-related costs, whereas WSO contends with demand normalization, inventory management, and acquisition integration. In terms of market sentiment, FAST's stronger earnings momentum and near-record share price contrast with WSO's more cautious positioning ahead of its peak selling season.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, earnings momentum, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward FAST in the current environment. FAST's combination of accelerating sales, expanding operating leverage, and a share price near its 52-week high suggests more persistent positive momentum, while WSO continues to work through a period of demand normalization and margin scrutiny. That said, this assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive, and WSO's dividend track record and acquisition-driven growth remain notable. The AI's preference may shift as new earnings data and market conditions emerge.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FAST is a Buy and WSO is a StrongBuy.
Momentum Indicator for FAST turns positive, indicating new upward trend
FAST saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 09, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 83 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 58 of the 83 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 70%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for FAST just turned positive on September 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where FAST's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
FAST moved above its 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +2.09% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FAST advanced for three days, in 213 of 336 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FAST declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
FAST broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. FAST’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 27 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 30 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 66, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 93 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: FAST's P/B Ratio (14.871) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (4.092). P/E Ratio (44.686) is within average values for comparable stocks, (1.310). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.357) is also within normal values, averaging (2.538). Dividend Yield (0.020) settles around the average of (0.500) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.447) is also within normal values, averaging (3.013).
WSO in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026
WSO moved above its 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 31 of 40 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 16, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on WSO as a result. In 58 of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for WSO just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where WSO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Following a +8.34% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where WSO advanced for three days, in 241 of 351 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 111 of 191 cases where WSO Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 58%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where WSO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
WSO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 39 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 67 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.202) is normal, around the industry mean (4.092). P/E Ratio (26.116) is within average values for comparable stocks, (1.310). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.199) is also within normal values, averaging (2.538). Dividend Yield (0.043) settles around the average of (0.500) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.587) is also within normal values, averaging (3.013).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. WSO’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. WSO’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 66, placing this stock worse than average.
FAST | WSO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 40 | 10 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 93 Overvalued | 67 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 55 | 76 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 30 | 55 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 20 | 73 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 27 | 54 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 39 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
WSO's Valuation (67) in the Building Products industry is in the same range as FAST (93) in the Wholesale Distributors industry. This means that WSO’s stock grew similarly to FAST’s over the last 12 months.
FAST's Profit vs Risk Rating (55) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is in the same range as WSO (76) in the Building Products industry. This means that FAST’s stock grew similarly to WSO’s over the last 12 months.
FAST's SMR Rating (30) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is in the same range as WSO (55) in the Building Products industry. This means that FAST’s stock grew similarly to WSO’s over the last 12 months.
FAST's Price Growth Rating (20) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for WSO (73) in the Building Products industry. This means that FAST’s stock grew somewhat faster than WSO’s over the last 12 months.
FAST's P/E Growth Rating (27) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is in the same range as WSO (54) in the Building Products industry. This means that FAST’s stock grew similarly to WSO’s over the last 12 months.
| FAST | WSO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 63% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 66% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 69% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 75% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 66% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 60% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 23 days ago 49% | 4 days ago 70% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 58% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FAST’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while WSO’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- FAST’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- WSO’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FAST’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WSO’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FAST’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
- WSO’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
FAST (@Electronics Distributors) experienced а +0.94% price change this week, while WSO (@Electronics Distributors) price change was +4.52% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronics Distributors industry was +0.02%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.32%, and the average quarterly price growth was +6.73%.
Reported Earning Dates
FAST is expected to report earnings on Jan 19, 2027.
WSO is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronics Distributors (+0.02% weekly)Electronics distributors are companies that are involved in distribution of one or more of the following: electronic components, computer products/ peripherals and software products & services. Several electronics distributors are also becoming the point of contact for technical/pre- & post-sale support in many cases, in an attempt to bolster their position in the market. Tariffs and/or cross-border trade barriers are some of the potential threats to the electronics supply chain, but that could also potentially lead to re-directing to markets where tariffs/restrictions are lower depending on demand. The industry is also vulnerable in the event of economic slowdowns. Arrow Electronics, Inc., SYNNEX Corporation and Versum Materials, Inc. are some of the major electronics distributors in the U.S.
Advertisement
FAST and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FAST has been loosely correlated with GWW. These tickers have moved in lockstep 55% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if FAST jumps, then GWW could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To FAST | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAST | 100% | +0.46% | ||
| GWW - FAST | 55% Loosely correlated | +0.61% | ||
| FERG - FAST | 47% Loosely correlated | -0.29% | ||
| WSO - FAST | 42% Loosely correlated | +7.22% | ||
| QXO - FAST | 41% Loosely correlated | +6.89% | ||
| CNM - FAST | 39% Loosely correlated | +2.17% | ||
More | ||||
WSO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WSO has been loosely correlated with FERG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 55% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if WSO jumps, then FERG could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To WSO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSO | 100% | +7.22% | ||
| FERG - WSO | 55% Loosely correlated | -0.29% | ||
| SITE - WSO | 53% Loosely correlated | +5.87% | ||
| AIT - WSO | 51% Loosely correlated | -5.75% | ||
| CNM - WSO | 49% Loosely correlated | +2.17% | ||
| QXO - WSO | 49% Loosely correlated | +6.89% | ||
More | ||||