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FDX vs HUBG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? FedEx Corporation (FDX) vs. Hub Group, Inc. (HUBG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- FedEx (FDX) is a large-cap global express and parcel carrier with roughly a $66 billion market capitalization, while Hub Group (HUBG) is a small-cap intermodal and logistics provider with a market value near $2.2 billion.
- FedEx has shown stronger recent momentum, delivering better-than-expected earnings and reaching a 52-week high, whereas Hub Group has faced softer freight demand and declining revenue.
- Hub Group announced a restatement of its first three quarters of 2025 financials and delayed its fourth-quarter earnings release, a development weighing on sentiment.
- Both companies operate in freight and logistics, but FedEx leans on global express and parcel volumes, while Hub Group is tied to intermodal (rail-based) and truck brokerage activity.
- FedEx is executing a structural transformation, including a planned spin-off of its Freight segment, while Hub Group is focused on the Marten Intermodal acquisition and cost discipline.
- Relative performance and market positioning currently favor FedEx, though the two stocks serve different investor profiles and risk appetites.
Introduction
Freight and logistics are cyclical industries where scale, cost control, and network efficiency determine relative performance. Comparing FDX and HUBG offers a useful lens on two very different segments of the same sector: a global parcel and express leader versus a smaller intermodal and brokerage specialist. This stock comparison is most relevant to traders and investors weighing large-cap stability and turnaround momentum against a smaller, value-oriented name navigating a challenging freight cycle. Understanding how each company has behaved in recent market activity can help clarify their distinct market positioning and risk profiles.
FDX Overview and Recent Performance
FedEx Corporation is one of the world's largest providers of express shipping, package delivery, and freight services, with a global air and ground network spanning more than 200 countries. In recent weeks, FDX has drawn investor attention for improving fundamentals and renewed momentum. The company reported quarterly revenue of approximately $23.5 billion, up about 7% year over year, and adjusted earnings that exceeded analyst expectations. Management also raised the lower end of its full-year adjusted earnings guidance.
Sentiment has been supported by progress on the company's cost-cutting program and network transformation, including its "Network 2.0" initiative, as well as a shift toward business-to-business (B2B) services, pharmaceutical logistics, and data center logistics. FedEx has also been advancing a plan to spin off its Freight segment as a separate entity. These catalysts helped FDX reach a new 52-week high during recent market activity, with shares gaining strongly over the prior several months. Analysts have issued a mix of Buy, Hold, and a small number of cautious ratings, reflecting both optimism about the turnaround and awareness of a still-soft macroeconomic backdrop.
HUBG Overview and Recent Performance
Hub Group, Inc. is a supply-chain solutions provider focused on intermodal transportation, truck brokerage, and logistics services, working closely with rail partners such as Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern. In recent months, HUBG has navigated a muted freight environment, with revenue declining year over year across several business lines. Quarterly revenue of roughly $934 million represented a decline of about 5% versus the prior year, driven by softer brokerage demand and lower volumes in parts of its logistics segment.
The company has emphasized cost control, automation-driven productivity gains, and the integration of the Marten Intermodal acquisition, which expanded its refrigerated intermodal capabilities. However, sentiment has been tempered by an announced restatement of its first, second, and third quarter 2025 financial statements related to an understatement of purchased transportation costs and accounts payable, along with a delay in its fourth-quarter earnings release. Hub Group has introduced a preliminary 2026 outlook calling for revenue between roughly $3.65 billion and $3.95 billion. Despite these headwinds, the company maintains a strong balance sheet and continues returning capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two companies is scale and business mix. FDX operates a global express and parcel network that spans air, ground, and freight, giving it exposure to e-commerce, international trade, and premium time-sensitive delivery. HUBG is concentrated in intermodal and brokerage, which are more directly tied to domestic freight volumes, rail capacity, and highway-to-rail conversion trends.
Growth drivers also differ. FedEx's near-term story centers on margin expansion through cost reductions, network optimization, and a pending Freight spin-off. Hub Group's narrative leans on intermodal share gains, the Marten acquisition, and a potential recovery in the freight cycle. On the risk side, FedEx faces exposure to tariffs, a slowing economy, and softer international trade, while Hub Group contends with depressed spot rates, muted demand, and the accounting restatement that has added uncertainty around its reported results.
From a market positioning standpoint, FedEx currently exhibits stronger trend consistency and positive earnings revisions, while Hub Group's momentum has been constrained by cyclical softness and reporting-related overhangs. These differences make a direct stock comparison more about strategy fit than simple quality.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings momentum, relative positioning, and the presence of clear catalysts, Tickeron's AI would likely favor FDX over HUBG in the current environment. FedEx has demonstrated stronger recent price momentum, a fresh 52-week high, and upward-trending earnings estimates, alongside a defined transformation catalyst in its Freight spin-off. Hub Group, by contrast, faces softer revenue trends and added uncertainty from its financial restatement and delayed reporting. The probabilistic assessment leans toward FedEx for its more stable and consistent trend profile, though the outcome ultimately depends on each investor's timeframe and risk tolerance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FDX is a StrongBuy and HUBG is a Hold.
Momentum Indicator for FDX turns positive, indicating new upward trend
FDX saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 83 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 68 of the 83 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 82%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where FDX's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 14 of 20 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for FDX just turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where FDX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Following a +1.77% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FDX advanced for three days, in 229 of 329 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FDX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
FDX broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for FDX entered a downward trend on October 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 22 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 27 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. FDX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 59 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.234) is normal, around the industry mean (2.727). P/E Ratio (15.966) is within average values for comparable stocks, (7.597). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.224) is also within normal values, averaging (5.110). Dividend Yield (0.016) settles around the average of (0.020) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.761) is also within normal values, averaging (2.034).
HUBG sees its 50-day moving average cross bearishly below its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for HUBG moved below the 200-day moving average on September 21, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 23, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on HUBG as a result. In 59 of 92 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HUBG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
The Aroon Indicator for HUBG entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where HUBG's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 17 of 29 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 42 of 63 cases where HUBG's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for HUBG just turned positive on October 14, 2026. Looking at past instances where HUBG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
HUBG may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 57 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.923) is normal, around the industry mean (2.727). P/E Ratio (14.686) is within average values for comparable stocks, (7.597). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.857) is also within normal values, averaging (5.110). Dividend Yield (0.019) settles around the average of (0.020) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.537) is also within normal values, averaging (2.034).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 78 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 81 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 84 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. HUBG’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. HUBG’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock worse than average.
FDX | HUBG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 22 | 70 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 59 Fair valued | 57 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 27 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 57 | 81 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 44 | 84 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 24 | 78 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 22 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
HUBG's Valuation (57) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as FDX (59). This means that HUBG’s stock grew similarly to FDX’s over the last 12 months.
FDX's Profit vs Risk Rating (27) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is significantly better than the same rating for HUBG (100). This means that FDX’s stock grew significantly faster than HUBG’s over the last 12 months.
FDX's SMR Rating (57) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as HUBG (81). This means that FDX’s stock grew similarly to HUBG’s over the last 12 months.
FDX's Price Growth Rating (44) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for HUBG (84). This means that FDX’s stock grew somewhat faster than HUBG’s over the last 12 months.
FDX's P/E Growth Rating (24) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for HUBG (78). This means that FDX’s stock grew somewhat faster than HUBG’s over the last 12 months.
| FDX | HUBG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 59% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 64% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 64% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 68% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 70% | N/A |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 19 days ago 58% | 6 days ago 69% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 71% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 69% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FDX’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while HUBG’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- FDX’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- HUBG’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FDX’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while HUBG’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FDX’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- HUBG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
FDX (@Other Transportation) experienced а +1.76% price change this week, while HUBG (@Other Transportation) price change was -2.76% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Other Transportation industry was -7.66%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -9.14%, and the average quarterly price growth was -32.43%.
Reported Earning Dates
FDX is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
HUBG is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Other Transportation (-7.66% weekly)Other Transportation includes transportation services like providing airport ground transportation, airport management and equipment, shipping services, as well as businesses that operate bridges, expressways and other public services such as taxis and subways. Grupo Aero-pac, Corporacion America Airports S.A. and Matson, Inc. are some of the major companies operating in this space.
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HUBG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HUBG has been closely correlated with XPO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 70% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if HUBG jumps, then XPO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To HUBG | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUBG | 100% | -2.91% | ||
| XPO - HUBG | 70% Closely correlated | -2.94% | ||
| LSTR - HUBG | 49% Loosely correlated | -2.13% | ||
| JBHT - HUBG | 46% Loosely correlated | -1.98% | ||
| CHRW - HUBG | 38% Loosely correlated | -0.80% | ||
| PAL - HUBG | 37% Loosely correlated | -0.37% | ||
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