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FERG vs QXO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Ferguson Enterprises (FERG) vs. QXO, Inc. (QXO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Contrasting profiles: FERG is a profitable, dividend-paying distribution giant, while QXO is a fast-consolidating, acquisition-driven growth story still posting losses.
- Relative performance: FERG has held up with modest gains and S&P 500 inclusion, while QXO shares have fallen roughly 60% from their 52-week high amid weak roofing demand.
- Scale vs. speed: FERG generates roughly $31 billion in annual sales with positive margins; QXO is scaling rapidly through M&A (mergers and acquisitions) but is not yet consistently profitable.
- Balance sheets: FERG carries low leverage (about 1.0x net debt to adjusted EBITDA, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization); QXO's debt has climbed as it funds acquisitions.
- Sentiment split: Analysts broadly rate FERG a Buy, while QXO attracts both aggressive bulls and a notable short-interest contingent betting against a turnaround.
Introduction
Investors comparing FERG and QXO are effectively weighing two very different ways to play the North American building products and distribution market. Ferguson Enterprises is a mature, cash-generative leader with established profitability, while QXO, Inc. is a newer consolidator using serial acquisitions to assemble scale at speed. This stock comparison is relevant for traders and investors deciding between a steady, income-oriented compounder and a higher-risk, higher-reward roll-up story. Understanding their relative performance, market positioning, and risk profiles can help clarify which profile better fits a given portfolio or trading strategy.
FERG Overview and Recent Performance
Ferguson Enterprises (FERG) is North America's largest value-added distributor of essential water and air solutions, serving professional contractors across plumbing, HVAC (heating, ventilation, and air conditioning), PVF (pipes, valves, and fittings), waterworks, and lighting. It operates over 1,700 locations with roughly 35,000 associates and reported calendar-year 2025 sales of about $31.3 billion.
In recent weeks, FERG has shown resilient relative performance. The company reported a first fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026 with net sales up 3.6% to $7.47 billion and adjusted operating profit up 8.4%, as stronger non-residential demand offset softness in residential markets. Notably, FERG was added to the S&P 500 index, and it announced a roughly $1.6 billion agreement to acquire FloWorks, an industrial distributor, reinforcing its growth strategy. The company also signaled plans to cancel its secondary London Stock Exchange listing and consolidate trading on the NYSE, and it authorized a $2 billion share repurchase program. These catalysts, combined with a modest dividend, have supported investor sentiment even as residential construction remains subdued.
QXO Overview and Recent Performance
QXO, Inc. (QXO) is a building products distributor led by Chairman and CEO Brad Jacobs, who previously built large companies in logistics and other sectors. QXO has pursued an aggressive roll-up strategy, acquiring Beacon Roofing Supply, Kodiak Building Partners for about $2.25 billion, and agreeing to buy insulation leader TopBuild for roughly $17 billion. These deals aim to create one of North America's largest building products distributors, with a stated goal of reaching $50 billion in annual revenue within a decade.
Recent market activity has been more volatile for QXO. The stock reached a 52-week high near $27.61 before declining roughly 60% to the low teens as residential roofing demand softened and integration costs weighed on results. QXO reported a first-quarter 2026 net loss of $227.1 million on sales of $1.73 billion, followed by second-quarter sales of about $3.25 billion with a narrower $55 million net loss and an adjusted EBITDA margin near 8.4%. Sentiment remains divided: management emphasizes scale and a broader product mix, while elevated short interest reflects skepticism about how quickly the acquisitions will convert into consistent profitability.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ sharply in business model and risk profile. FERG is a scaled, diversified distributor with positive operating margins, low leverage, and a balanced capital-return program of buybacks and dividends. Its growth is incremental, driven by market share gains, tuck-in acquisitions, and resilience in non-residential and HVAC end markets. Its main risks are tied to the housing cycle and construction activity.
QXO, by contrast, is betting that aggressive consolidation and technology investment can create outsized scale advantages. Its growth is dramatic but concentrated, and profitability remains negative on a net basis. Risks include integration execution, elevated debt, tariff and commodity cost pressure, and the possibility that a prolonged housing downturn delays the earnings inflection the valuation already assumes. In terms of market sentiment, FERG enjoys steadier, broader analyst support, while QXO is more polarized between growth-oriented bulls and short sellers.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor FERG in the current environment. Its combination of consistent profitability, positive relative performance, index inclusion, and a strong balance sheet represents a more stable trend profile, whereas QXO carries higher volatility, ongoing net losses, and greater dependence on a future turnaround. That said, QXO's scale-driven upside and serial-acquisition momentum provide meaningful catalysts that could shift the balance as integration progresses. The AI verdict is therefore probabilistic rather than definitive, reflecting FERG's steadier positioning against QXO's higher-risk, higher-reward setup.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FERG is a Buy and QXO is a Hold.
FERG in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026
FERG moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 25 of 34 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where FERG's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 23 of 32 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on FERG as a result. In 59 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for FERG just turned positive on September 23, 2026. Looking at past instances where FERG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Following a +0.71% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FERG advanced for three days, in 224 of 327 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 174 of 313 cases where FERG Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 56%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 42 of 67 cases where FERG's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FERG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
FERG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 16, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 66, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. FERG’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 76 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (7.112) is normal, around the industry mean (4.092). P/E Ratio (23.026) is within average values for comparable stocks, (1.310). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.426) is also within normal values, averaging (2.538). Dividend Yield (0.016) settles around the average of (0.500) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.351) is also within normal values, averaging (3.013).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
QXO's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for QXO entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 210 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 177 of the 210 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 84%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on QXO as a result. In 75 of 91 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where QXO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where QXO's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 28 of 30 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 53 of 62 cases where QXO's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for QXO just turned positive on October 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where QXO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
Following a +3.16% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where QXO advanced for three days, in 218 of 259 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
QXO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 1 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.148) is normal, around the industry mean (4.092). P/E Ratio (-11.207) is within average values for comparable stocks, (1.310). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.947) is also within normal values, averaging (2.538). QXO's Dividend Yield (10.149) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.500). P/S Ratio (0.839) is also within normal values, averaging (3.013).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 84 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. QXO’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 93 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. QXO’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 66, placing this stock worse than average.
FERG | QXO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 39 | 71 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 76 Overvalued | 1 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 35 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 31 | 93 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 55 | 84 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 56 | 100 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
QXO's Valuation (1) in the Information Technology Services industry is significantly better than the same rating for FERG (76) in the null industry. This means that QXO’s stock grew significantly faster than FERG’s over the last 12 months.
FERG's Profit vs Risk Rating (35) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for QXO (100) in the Information Technology Services industry. This means that FERG’s stock grew somewhat faster than QXO’s over the last 12 months.
FERG's SMR Rating (31) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for QXO (93) in the Information Technology Services industry. This means that FERG’s stock grew somewhat faster than QXO’s over the last 12 months.
FERG's Price Growth Rating (55) in the null industry is in the same range as QXO (84) in the Information Technology Services industry. This means that FERG’s stock grew similarly to QXO’s over the last 12 months.
FERG's P/E Growth Rating (56) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for QXO (100) in the Information Technology Services industry. This means that FERG’s stock grew somewhat faster than QXO’s over the last 12 months.
| FERG | QXO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 1 day ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 85% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 82% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 84% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 76% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 76% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 21 days ago 84% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 22 days ago 58% | 4 days ago 76% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 84% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 84% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FERG’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while QXO’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- FERG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- QXO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FERG’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while QXO’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FERG’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
- QXO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
FERG (@Electronics Distributors) experienced а +2.25% price change this week, while QXO (@Electronics Distributors) price change was -0.19% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronics Distributors industry was +0.02%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.32%, and the average quarterly price growth was +6.73%.
Reported Earning Dates
FERG is expected to report earnings on Nov 09, 2026.
QXO is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronics Distributors (+0.02% weekly)Electronics distributors are companies that are involved in distribution of one or more of the following: electronic components, computer products/ peripherals and software products & services. Several electronics distributors are also becoming the point of contact for technical/pre- & post-sale support in many cases, in an attempt to bolster their position in the market. Tariffs and/or cross-border trade barriers are some of the potential threats to the electronics supply chain, but that could also potentially lead to re-directing to markets where tariffs/restrictions are lower depending on demand. The industry is also vulnerable in the event of economic slowdowns. Arrow Electronics, Inc., SYNNEX Corporation and Versum Materials, Inc. are some of the major electronics distributors in the U.S.
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FERG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FERG has been loosely correlated with AIT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 59% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if FERG jumps, then AIT could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To FERG | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FERG | 100% | -0.29% | ||
| AIT - FERG | 59% Loosely correlated | -5.75% | ||
| CNM - FERG | 56% Loosely correlated | +2.17% | ||
| WSO - FERG | 56% Loosely correlated | +7.22% | ||
| WCC - FERG | 53% Loosely correlated | -7.23% | ||
| SITE - FERG | 51% Loosely correlated | +5.87% | ||
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QXO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, QXO has been loosely correlated with SITE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 54% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if QXO jumps, then SITE could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To QXO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QXO | 100% | +6.89% | ||
| SITE - QXO | 54% Loosely correlated | +5.87% | ||
| CNM - QXO | 53% Loosely correlated | +2.17% | ||
| BXC - QXO | 51% Loosely correlated | +6.30% | ||
| FERG - QXO | 51% Loosely correlated | -0.29% | ||
| WCC - QXO | 50% Loosely correlated | -7.23% | ||
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