Advertisement
FRST vs HBNC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Primis Financial Corp (FRST) vs. Horizon Bancorp (HBNC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both FRST and HBNC are regional bank holding companies that have recently improved profitability through balance-sheet repositioning.
- FRST is a smaller, technology-forward Mid-Atlantic franchise with niche national lending platforms, while HBNC is a larger Midwest commercial bank focused on commercial and industrial (C&I) lending.
- FRST has delivered sharply higher year-over-year earnings and a roughly 34% one-year share gain, while HBNC offers a higher dividend yield and a broader balance sheet.
- Both stocks carry "Strong Buy" consensus ratings, but their growth drivers, risk profiles, and market positioning differ meaningfully.
- HBNC leads on income (a roughly 3.3% dividend yield) and scale, while FRST leads on earnings momentum and niche revenue diversification.
Introduction
Regional banks often trade as a group, yet individual franchises can diverge substantially based on geography, business mix, and execution. This stock comparison examines Primis Financial Corp (NASDAQ: FRST) and Horizon Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ: HBNC), two community-oriented lenders whose recent market positioning has drawn investor attention. Both completed meaningful balance-sheet repositioning over the past year and have reported improving net interest margins (NIM, the spread between interest earned on loans and paid on deposits). Traders seeking momentum and earnings inflection may gravitate toward FRST, while income-focused investors may weigh HBNC's higher yield. Understanding their relative performance helps clarify which profile fits a given portfolio objective.
FRST Overview and Recent Performance
Primis Financial Corp, headquartered in McLean, Virginia, operates Primis Bank across Virginia and Maryland alongside specialized national businesses: Primis Mortgage, mortgage warehouse lending, and Panacea Financial, which serves medical and other professional borrowers. This diversified, digitally oriented model differentiates it from a typical community bank. In recent weeks, FRST's relative performance has been supported by a sharp profitability rebound — second-quarter net income of $9.4 million, or $0.38 per diluted share, compared with $2.4 million, or $0.10 per share, a year earlier. Improved NIM, higher net interest income, a 37% decline in nonperforming assets, and a gain from the sale of Bearing Insurance all contributed. The shares have gained roughly 34% over the trailing year, and analysts have maintained a "Strong Buy" consensus with an average price target near $19. Key watchpoints include sensitivity to mortgage demand and execution of a planned real-time core conversion.
HBNC Overview and Recent Performance
Horizon Bancorp, Inc., based in Michigan City, Indiana, is the holding company for Horizon Bank, which provides commercial and retail banking across Indiana and Michigan. HBNC's recent market activity has been shaped by a completed balance-sheet repositioning that included selling its mortgage warehouse business and repositioning securities, lifting its net interest margin. In its most recent quarter, Horizon reported earnings of $0.49 per share, slightly below consensus, while maintaining a NIM in the mid-4% range, strong fee income, and excellent credit trends. A one-time litigation reserve of roughly $3.1 million pressured results. The company's Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1, a measure of core bank capital) ratio stood near 11%, indicating solid capitalization. Analysts recently raised price targets, including an upgrade to Overweight from Piper Sandler, and HBNC offers a dividend yield of roughly 3.3%.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron maintains a large library of AI Trading Bots covering thousands of different tickers, but only a curated subset earns placement on the Trending AI Robots page. This section highlights the bots most suitable for current market conditions, each with its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance record, statistics, and watchlist of tickers. Because the bots span momentum, swing, and longer-horizon approaches across equities, ETFs (exchange-traded funds), and other instruments, traders can filter for signals that match their own risk tolerance. Explore the Trending AI Robots page to see which automated strategies are currently leading and which tickers they are tracking most closely.
Head-to-Head Comparison
Although both are regional banks, FRST and HBNC occupy different competitive lanes. FRST is a smaller franchise — roughly $380 million in market capitalization — that combines a community bank with national, higher-yield niches such as mortgage warehouse lending and healthcare-focused Panacea Financial. Its growth story leans on fee and interest income from these specialized platforms. HBNC, with a market capitalization near $1 billion, is a more traditional Midwest commercial bank whose momentum is driven by commercial and industrial loan growth, disciplined deposit costs, and a high-quality credit book.
On returns, FRST has shown stronger recent earnings acceleration and a lower valuation multiple, while HBNC offers superior current income with a higher dividend yield and greater scale. Risk profiles also differ: FRST carries sensitivity to mortgage-market demand and technology-conversion execution, whereas HBNC faces litigation-related costs, planned runoff of auto loans, and exposure to Midwest commercial real estate. In short, FRST skews toward growth and niche diversification, while HBNC skews toward stability, yield, and conventional commercial banking.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor FRST in the current environment, driven by its stronger earnings inflection, improving margin trajectory, and more pronounced positive technical trend over the trailing year. The sharp rise in profitability, lower valuation, and diversified niche revenue streams give FRST a relative momentum advantage. However, this is a probabilistic assessment rather than a definitive outcome: HBNC's larger scale, superior dividend yield, and robust capital position make it a more defensive candidate for income-oriented positioning. Traders should weigh FRST's momentum-oriented profile against HBNC's steadier, higher-yield structure when evaluating relative positioning.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FRST is a Hold and HBNC is a Hold.
FRST's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for FRST turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where FRST's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on FRST as a result. In 44 of 87 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
FRST moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.44% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FRST advanced for three days, in 160 of 277 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 10-day moving average for FRST crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FRST declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
FRST broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for FRST entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 24 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.911) is normal, around the industry mean (1.268). P/E Ratio (7.380) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.372). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.140) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.025) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.270) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. FRST’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 66 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 55, placing this stock slightly worse than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
HBNC in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026
HBNC moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 35 of 47 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where HBNC's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 14 of 21 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on HBNC as a result. In 46 of 80 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for HBNC just turned positive on October 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where HBNC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 28 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Following a +2.48% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HBNC advanced for three days, in 195 of 305 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HBNC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
HBNC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for HBNC entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 1 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.413) is normal, around the industry mean (1.268). P/E Ratio (-6.132) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.372). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.280) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.032) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.319) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. HBNC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 67 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 68 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. HBNC’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 55, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
FRST | HBNC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 24 | 19 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 24 Undervalued | 1 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 66 | 68 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 35 | 67 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | 45 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 96 | 98 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
HBNC's Valuation (1) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as FRST (24). This means that HBNC’s stock grew similarly to FRST’s over the last 12 months.
FRST's Profit vs Risk Rating (66) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as HBNC (68). This means that FRST’s stock grew similarly to HBNC’s over the last 12 months.
FRST's SMR Rating (35) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as HBNC (67). This means that FRST’s stock grew similarly to HBNC’s over the last 12 months.
FRST's Price Growth Rating (43) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as HBNC (45). This means that FRST’s stock grew similarly to HBNC’s over the last 12 months.
FRST's P/E Growth Rating (96) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as HBNC (98). This means that FRST’s stock grew similarly to HBNC’s over the last 12 months.
| FRST | HBNC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 67% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 57% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 62% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 61% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 58% | 7 days ago 64% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 16 days ago 60% | 9 days ago 67% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 46% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 66% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FRST’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while HBNC’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- FRST’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- HBNC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FRST’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while HBNC’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FRST’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- HBNC’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
FRST (@Regional Banks) experienced а +2.16% price change this week, while HBNC (@Regional Banks) price change was +3.21% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +2.63%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.03%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.99%.
Reported Earning Dates
FRST is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
HBNC is expected to report earnings on Jan 27, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+2.63% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
Advertisement
FRST and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FRST has been closely correlated with HBNC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 72% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if FRST jumps, then HBNC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To FRST | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRST | 100% | +2.31% | ||
| HBNC - FRST | 72% Closely correlated | +1.99% | ||
| BY - FRST | 69% Closely correlated | +1.60% | ||
| FISI - FRST | 68% Closely correlated | +2.11% | ||
| ISTR - FRST | 67% Closely correlated | +1.57% | ||
| BFST - FRST | 66% Closely correlated | +1.85% | ||
More | ||||
HBNC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HBNC has been closely correlated with BY. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if HBNC jumps, then BY could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To HBNC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HBNC | 100% | +1.99% | ||
| BY - HBNC | 86% Closely correlated | +1.60% | ||
| UVSP - HBNC | 85% Closely correlated | +1.32% | ||
| BUSE - HBNC | 84% Closely correlated | +2.89% | ||
| EFSC - HBNC | 83% Closely correlated | +1.26% | ||
| FMBH - HBNC | 83% Closely correlated | +2.76% | ||
More | ||||