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FRT vs SPG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT) vs. Simon Property Group (SPG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Different scale, same sector: Both are retail-focused real estate investment trusts (REITs), but SPG operates at roughly seven times the market capitalization of FRT, with a global mall and outlet footprint versus FRT's coastal open-air and mixed-use portfolio.
- Momentum gap: SPG has delivered stronger recent returns, including a roughly 20% one-year total return, while FRT has posted more modest gains and pulled back more sharply from its 52-week high.
- Dividend profiles differ: FRT holds the REIT industry's longest-running dividend increase streak (59 consecutive years), while SPG has been raising its payout more aggressively and recently lifted its quarterly dividend by 4.7%.
- Fundamentals: SPG has reported record leasing, firm occupancy, and raised guidance, while FRT has beaten funds from operations (FFO) estimates but carries a higher forward valuation multiple.
- Risk trade-off: FRT offers a more defensive, coastal-urban business mix, while SPG offers greater scale and operating leverage but higher exposure to consumer spending and mall-sector sentiment.
Introduction
Federal Realty Investment Trust and Simon Property Group are two of the most closely watched names in retail real estate, yet they represent very different ways to invest in the same theme. This stock comparison is relevant for income-oriented investors evaluating dividend reliability, as well as traders assessing relative performance and market positioning across the retail REIT space. Both companies derive most of their revenue from tenant lease income, making them sensitive to consumer spending, interest rates, and leasing momentum. Comparing FRT and SPG side by side highlights how portfolio quality, scale, and capital allocation shape returns in the current market environment.
FRT Overview and Recent Performance
Federal Realty Investment Trust is a retail-focused REIT headquartered in North Bethesda, Maryland, known for owning and redeveloping open-air shopping centers and mixed-use destinations concentrated in major coastal and high-demand urban markets. Its portfolio of roughly 100 properties includes well-known projects such as Santana Row, Pike & Rose, and Assembly Row, spanning about 28.8 million square feet of commercial space plus thousands of residential units.
In recent weeks, FRT shares have traded in the low-to-mid $100s, well below their 52-week high near $128. The stock has posted a year-to-date gain in the mid-single digits and a one-year total return in the low double digits. Sentiment has been supported by its record of 59 consecutive annual dividend increases and by a wave of analyst upgrades from firms including BofA Securities, Raymond James, and BMO Capital. However, the stock has lagged larger retail peers in recent momentum, reflecting its defensive positioning and a relatively high forward earnings multiple.
SPG Overview and Recent Performance
Simon Property Group, headquartered in Indianapolis, is the largest owner of malls, premium outlets, and mixed-use retail destinations in the United States and holds interests in additional properties across Europe, Asia, and Canada. As an S&P 100 company, it benefits from broad institutional ownership and significant scale.
SPG has been one of the stronger performers in the retail REIT sector in recent months. The stock trades near $200, with a year-to-date gain above 10% and a one-year total return of roughly 20%, despite a pullback from its 52-week high. Operating momentum has been robust: the company reported record leasing activity, occupancy of about 96% at its U.S. malls and premium outlets, and rising retailer sales per square foot. Management raised its full-year guidance and increased the quarterly dividend by 4.7%, supported by ample liquidity and investment-grade credit ratings of A from S&P and A3 from Moody's.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between FRT and SPG is one of scale versus specialization. SPG's sprawling mall and outlet portfolio gives it pricing power and broad diversification, but it also ties performance more closely to mall traffic, tenant health, and consumer discretionary spending. FRT's focus on necessity-driven, open-air centers in affluent coastal markets tends to produce steadier cash flows and historically resilient occupancy, but with a smaller growth runway than a national platform.
Growth drivers also differ. SPG is investing heavily in redevelopment and mixed-use projects, with more than $1 billion underway at blended yields near 9%, while FRT emphasizes redevelopment of existing high-barrier locations. On valuation, FRT trades at a higher forward P/E multiple, reflecting its defensive appeal and premium portfolio, whereas SPG offers a lower multiple with stronger recent earnings growth. Both face the same macro risks — rising interest costs and e-commerce competition — but SPG carries greater operating leverage to consumer trends, while FRT carries a higher relative valuation risk if sentiment toward defensive REITs cools.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor SPG at present. The stock exhibits stronger trend consistency, accelerating earnings momentum, record leasing activity, and a recent dividend increase, all of which are characteristics that trend-following and momentum-oriented algorithms tend to reward. FRT's defensive qualities and dividend reliability are genuine strengths, but its weaker recent momentum and higher valuation multiple suggest less favorable positioning for systematic strategies focused on relative strength. That said, this is a probabilistic assessment rather than a definitive prediction — a shift in rate expectations or consumer sentiment could quickly alter the relative setup between these two retail REITs.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FRT is a Buy and SPG is a Buy.
FRT's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for FRT turned positive on October 12, 2026. Looking at past instances where FRT's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where FRT's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 15 of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on FRT as a result. In 51 of 102 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
Following a +1.31% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FRT advanced for three days, in 148 of 304 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 49%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FRT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
FRT broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for FRT entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. FRT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 73 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.948) is normal, around the industry mean (2.718). P/E Ratio (21.919) is within average values for comparable stocks, (34.982). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.591) is also within normal values, averaging (12.808). Dividend Yield (0.043) settles around the average of (365.798) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (7.289) is also within normal values, averaging (6.739).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 78 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. FRT’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 62, placing this stock worse than average.
SPG's RSI Indicator ascends from oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for SPG moved out of oversold territory on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 22 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 17 of the 22 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SPG as a result. In 68 of 97 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SPG just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where SPG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
SPG moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.39% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPG advanced for three days, in 191 of 326 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SPG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
SPG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for SPG entered a downward trend on October 19, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 62, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SPG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 87 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 100 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: SPG's P/B Ratio (15.583) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (2.718). P/E Ratio (14.935) is within average values for comparable stocks, (34.982). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (4.576) is also within normal values, averaging (12.808). Dividend Yield (0.043) settles around the average of (365.798) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (9.515) is also within normal values, averaging (6.739).
FRT | SPG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 9 | 28 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 73 Overvalued | 100 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 78 | 23 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 59 | 12 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 56 | 47 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 59 | 87 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
FRT's Valuation (73) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is in the same range as SPG (100). This means that FRT’s stock grew similarly to SPG’s over the last 12 months.
SPG's Profit vs Risk Rating (23) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is somewhat better than the same rating for FRT (78). This means that SPG’s stock grew somewhat faster than FRT’s over the last 12 months.
SPG's SMR Rating (12) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is somewhat better than the same rating for FRT (59). This means that SPG’s stock grew somewhat faster than FRT’s over the last 12 months.
SPG's Price Growth Rating (47) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is in the same range as FRT (56). This means that SPG’s stock grew similarly to FRT’s over the last 12 months.
FRT's P/E Growth Rating (59) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is in the same range as SPG (87). This means that FRT’s stock grew similarly to SPG’s over the last 12 months.
| FRT | SPG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 54% | 3 days ago 77% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 46% | 3 days ago 43% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 50% | 3 days ago 70% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 70% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 46% | 3 days ago 59% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 47% | 3 days ago 60% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 49% | 10 days ago 59% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 51% | 12 days ago 49% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 44% | 3 days ago 40% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 48% | 3 days ago 49% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FRT’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while SPG’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- FRT’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- SPG’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FRT’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SPG’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FRT’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- SPG’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
FRT (@Real Estate Investment Trusts) experienced а +2.26% price change this week, while SPG (@Real Estate Investment Trusts) price change was +3.01% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Real Estate Investment Trusts industry was +1.41%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.68%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4.28%.
Reported Earning Dates
FRT is expected to report earnings on Oct 30, 2026.
SPG is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Real Estate Investment Trusts (+1.41% weekly)A real estate investment trust (REIT) is a company any that owns, and in most cases, operates, income-producing real estate – ranging from office and apartment buildings to warehouses, hospitals, shopping centers, hotels and timberlands. Some REITs are involved in financing real estate. Equity REITs invest in and own properties, while mortgage REITs own and invest in property mortgages. REITs are required by law to pay out at least 90% of their annual taxable income (excluding capital gains) to shareholders in the form of dividends. Some REITs could be more cyclical than others; for example, when an economy is undergoing a recession, hotel REITs could be more vulnerable, compared to say healthcare REIT given that healthcare needs are less likely to depend on economic cycles. American Tower Corporation, Prologis, Inc. and Crown Castle International Corp are some of the biggest REIT companies in the U.S.
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FRT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FRT has been closely correlated with REG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if FRT jumps, then REG could also see price increases.