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GFL vs WCN
Which Stock Would AI Choose? GFL Environmental (GFL) vs. Waste Connections (WCN) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- WCN boasts a larger market capitalization of approximately $41 billion compared to GFL's $14 billion, offering greater scale in the waste management sector.
- Both stocks delivered strong Q1 2026 results, with GFL reporting revenue growth of 5.4% and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) up 12.3%, while WCN saw revenue rise 6.4%.
- GFL year-to-date return stands at about 10%, outperforming WCN's 8%, amid positive reactions to earnings and acquisitions.
- WCN trades at a more attractive forward P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio of 21 versus GFL's 42, suggesting better relative valuation.
- Debt-to-equity ratios are comparable at around 132% for GFL and 117% for WCN, reflecting capital-intensive operations in waste services.
- Analyst price targets imply upside potential of over 30% for both, with consensus buys signaling positive market sentiment.
Introduction
In the resilient waste management industry, GFL Environmental and WCN stand out as key players providing essential services like collection, recycling, and disposal. This stock comparison analyzes their recent market positioning, financial health, and growth trajectories, aiding investors seeking defensive exposure amid economic uncertainty. Traders focused on relative performance and sector trends will find value in understanding how these stocks stack up in terms of momentum, valuation, and operational strengths.
GFL Overview and Recent Performance
GFL Environmental operates as a diversified waste management company with solid waste, environmental services, and liquid industrial waste segments, primarily in North America. In recent market activity, the stock has shown resilience, posting a year-to-date gain of around 10% and trading near $38.50 with a market cap of $14 billion. Key drivers include robust Q1 2026 results, where revenue reached $1.64 billion (up 5.4%) and adjusted EBITDA climbed 12.3% to $478.5 million, fueled by 7% core pricing growth and acquisitions like Secure Waste Infrastructure. The company raised full-year 2026 guidance, boosting sentiment despite a high trailing P/E of 103. Shares reacted positively post-earnings, reflecting optimism around margin expansion and M&A (mergers and acquisitions) strategy, though elevated debt levels remain a watch point.
WCN Overview and Recent Performance
WCN (Waste Connections) delivers non-hazardous waste collection, transfer, disposal, and recycling services across the U.S. and Canada, emphasizing integrated operations. Recently, the stock has advanced about 8% year-to-date to around $161, supported by a $41 billion market cap and steady performance. Q1 2026 earnings highlighted revenue of $2.37 billion (up 6.4% year-over-year) and EPS growth, surpassing estimates with margin improvements. Positive analyst updates, including raised price targets to $180, have sustained momentum, driven by core pricing, acquisitions, and operational efficiencies. Trading at a trailing P/E of 39, WCN benefits from a defensive profile in fluctuating markets.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both GFL and WCN thrive on recurring revenue from essential waste services, but WCN’s larger scale enables broader geographic coverage and higher EBITDA margins around 32%, versus GFL’s focus on aggressive growth through M&A. Recent momentum favors GFL on YTD returns, yet WCN exhibits steadier pricing power and cash flow generation. Risk factors include industry cyclicality tied to construction and higher leverage for GFL (debt/equity 133%). Sector exposure is similar—non-hazardous waste dominates—but WCN’s U.S. emphasis provides insulation from Canadian economic shifts. Market sentiment leans positive for both post-earnings, with WCN holding a valuation edge on forward multiples and profitability metrics.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI models currently favor WCN over GFL in this stock comparison, citing its superior market positioning through larger scale, consistent margin expansion in recent quarters, lower forward P/E, and resilient trend consistency amid sector headwinds. While GFL shows strong growth catalysts like acquisitions, WCN’s stability and relative valuation offer higher probability for outperformance in the near term.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GFL is a Buy and WCN is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GFL’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileWCN’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- GFL’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- WCN’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GFL’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WCN’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GFL’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
- WCN’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
GFL (@Environmental Services) experienced а -0.79% price change this week, while WCN (@Environmental Services) price change was +1.57% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Environmental Services industry was +3.00%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.89%, and the average quarterly price growth was +6.33%.
Reported Earning Dates
WCN is expected to report earnings on Jul 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Environmental Services (+3.00% weekly)Environmental Services includes companies that collect and dispose of hazardous and non-hazardous waste. Their services include removal of toxic waste from soil, removing medical waste etc. Some companies also operate incinerators, sewerage systems, waste treatment plants, and landfills. Demand for waste management is likely to rise with increasing urbanization/industrialization. Waste Management, Inc., Republic Services, Inc., Waste Connections, Inc. and Tetra Tech, Inc. are some of the major companies in this business.
| GFL | WCN | GFL / WCN | |
| Capitalization | 13.5B | 42.9B | 31% |
| EBITDA | 1.95B | 2.99B | 65% |
| Gain YTD | -12.670 | -3.311 | 383% |
| P/E Ratio | 97.22 | 37.42 | 260% |
| Revenue | 6.7B | 9.61B | 70% |
| Total Cash | 1.44B | 112M | 1,282% |
| Total Debt | 9.83B | 9.43B | 104% |
GFL | WCN | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 9 | 78 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 80 Overvalued | 43 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 78 | 47 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 90 | 63 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 53 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 100 | 93 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 65 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
WCN's Valuation (43) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GFL (80) in the null industry. This means that WCN’s stock grew somewhat faster than GFL’s over the last 12 months.
WCN's Profit vs Risk Rating (47) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as GFL (78) in the null industry. This means that WCN’s stock grew similarly to GFL’s over the last 12 months.
WCN's SMR Rating (63) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as GFL (90) in the null industry. This means that WCN’s stock grew similarly to GFL’s over the last 12 months.
WCN's Price Growth Rating (53) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as GFL (60) in the null industry. This means that WCN’s stock grew similarly to GFL’s over the last 12 months.
WCN's P/E Growth Rating (93) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as GFL (100) in the null industry. This means that WCN’s stock grew similarly to GFL’s over the last 12 months.
| GFL | WCN | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 38% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 47% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 54% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 45% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 45% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 40% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 10 days ago 46% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 46% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 43% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 32% |
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GFL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GFL has been loosely correlated with WCN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 56% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if GFL jumps, then WCN could also see price increases.
WCN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WCN has been closely correlated with RSG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if WCN jumps, then RSG could also see price increases.