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GFL vs WCN
Which Stock Would AI Choose? GFL Environmental (GFL) vs. Waste Connections (WCN) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- GFL is delivering faster revenue growth but carries higher financial leverage and recently reported a net loss on foreign-exchange swings.
- WCN posts steadier, margin-led growth with stronger cash generation and a larger market capitalization.
- Both companies are leaning on pricing power and acquisitions to offset soft construction-related volumes.
- WCN's relative performance has been stronger in recent months, outpacing its industry and the broader market.
- GFL offers a higher-growth, higher-leverage profile, while WCN offers a more defensive, free-cash-flow-focused profile.
Introduction
Investors comparing GFL and WCN are weighing two of North America's most prominent solid-waste and environmental-services operators. Both generate largely recurring revenue from waste collection, transfer, and disposal, yet they differ meaningfully in growth strategy, balance-sheet leverage, and margin profile. This stock comparison is especially relevant for traders and long-term investors evaluating relative performance and market positioning within the defensive waste-management sector, where pricing discipline and M&A (mergers and acquisitions) activity tend to drive shareholder returns. Understanding how each company's recent momentum, catalysts, and risk factors compare can help clarify which name may better suit a given portfolio objective.
GFL Overview and Recent Performance
GFL Environmental is the fourth-largest diversified environmental-services company in North America, serving Canada and roughly 18 U.S. states across solid waste, recycling, and related infrastructure. Recent weeks have been defined by an aggressive growth agenda: the company raised its full-year 2026 guidance after reporting strong top-line expansion, and it has been active on the deal front, completing acquisitions such as Frontier Waste Solutions while also announcing a move of its headquarters to the United States to broaden shareholder appeal.
GFL's recent market activity reflects a faster-growing but higher-leverage business. Quarterly revenue grew double digits, driven by pricing gains and acquisition contributions, and management cited 6.1% price growth alongside accelerating organic growth. However, the same period featured a swing to a net loss attributable largely to foreign-exchange movements and elevated fuel costs, underscoring the earnings volatility embedded in its model. The company also raised its dividend by 10%, signaling confidence in free-cash-flow generation even as net leverage remains a focal point for investors.
WCN Overview and Recent Performance
Waste Connections is an integrated solid-waste services provider offering non-hazardous collection, transfer, and disposal, including rail-based logistics and resource recovery. It serves roughly nine million residential, commercial, and industrial customers, with a strategy centered on secondary and exclusive markets that support pricing power and customer retention. In recent weeks, WCN has demonstrated steadier execution: revenue and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) each grew more than 6%, and the company raised its full-year outlook on stronger-than-expected pricing and margin discipline.
Unlike GFL, WCN's recent results showed consistent profitability, with adjusted earnings per share rising and adjusted EBITDA margin holding above 32%. Sentiment has been supported by strong free cash flow, an AI-assisted pricing initiative, and disciplined capital returns. The stock has outperformed its industry over recent months, though softer solid-waste volumes and an ongoing landfill remediation event at Chiquita Canyon remain monitored risk factors that temper the otherwise defensive profile.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two operators is growth versus stability. GFL is pursuing a faster-expansion playbook, with double-digit revenue growth fueled by meaningful M&A, which lifts the top line but raises net leverage and introduces integration and foreign-exchange volatility. WCN, by comparison, grows more moderately and relies on pricing power, efficiency, and selective tuck-in deals, producing higher margins and more predictable free cash flow.
Both face similar sector pressures, including softer construction and demolition volumes and elevated diesel costs, but they manage them differently. GFL's growth relies more heavily on acquisitions that temporarily pressure leverage, while WCN's competitive moat comes from exclusive-market positioning and an AI-driven pricing tool. In terms of risk, GFL carries higher balance-sheet leverage and currency exposure, whereas WCN's key risks center on volume softness and the ongoing Chiquita Canyon remediation. Market sentiment has favored WCN's steadier, cash-generative profile in recent months, while GFL's faster growth has been partially offset by earnings volatility.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely tilt toward WCN in the current environment. The stock's steadier margin trajectory, stronger free-cash-flow profile, and recent relative outperformance suggest a more consistent trend with fewer earnings disruptions. GFL presents a compelling higher-growth catalyst set, but its higher leverage and foreign-exchange-driven earnings swings introduce greater variability. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive, reflecting current market conditions and the relative consistency of each name's recent momentum.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GFL is a Buy and WCN is a StrongBuy.
GFL in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 02, 2026
GFL moved above its 50-day moving average on October 02, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 27 of 37 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GFL as a result. In 64 of 90 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GFL just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where GFL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 37 of 53 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Following a +2.09% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GFL advanced for three days, in 171 of 275 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 156 of 223 cases where GFL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 70%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GFL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
GFL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 23, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 4 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.708) is normal, around the industry mean (47.547). P/E Ratio (-97.234) is within average values for comparable stocks, (56.457). GFL's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.132). Dividend Yield (0.001) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.988) is also within normal values, averaging (72.867).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GFL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. GFL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
WCN's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for WCN turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where WCN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 20 of 40 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on WCN as a result. In 40 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
WCN moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for WCN crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 5 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 33%.
The 50-day moving average for WCN moved above the 200-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a +3.41% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where WCN advanced for three days, in 145 of 322 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 45%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 70 of 210 cases where WCN Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 33%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 13 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where WCN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 48%.
WCN broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. WCN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 82 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.928) is normal, around the industry mean (47.547). P/E Ratio (44.978) is within average values for comparable stocks, (56.457). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.507) is also within normal values, averaging (1.132). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.102) is also within normal values, averaging (72.867).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
GFL | WCN | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 41 | 40 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 4 Undervalued | 82 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 73 | 34 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 92 | 61 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 38 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 97 | 83 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
GFL's Valuation (4) in the null industry is significantly better than the same rating for WCN (82) in the Environmental Services industry. This means that GFL’s stock grew significantly faster than WCN’s over the last 12 months.
WCN's Profit vs Risk Rating (34) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GFL (73) in the null industry. This means that WCN’s stock grew somewhat faster than GFL’s over the last 12 months.
WCN's SMR Rating (61) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as GFL (92) in the null industry. This means that WCN’s stock grew similarly to GFL’s over the last 12 months.
WCN's Price Growth Rating (38) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as GFL (41) in the null industry. This means that WCN’s stock grew similarly to GFL’s over the last 12 months.
WCN's P/E Growth Rating (83) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as GFL (97) in the null industry. This means that WCN’s stock grew similarly to GFL’s over the last 12 months.
| GFL | WCN | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 46% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 45% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 47% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 50% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 45% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 41% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 45% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 66% | 8 days ago 48% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 47% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 33% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GFL’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while WCN’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- GFL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- WCN’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GFL’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WCN’s TA Score has 7 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GFL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- WCN’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
GFL (@Environmental Services) experienced а +1.56% price change this week, while WCN (@Environmental Services) price change was +2.58% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Environmental Services industry was -2.44%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.20%, and the average quarterly price growth was +6.12%.
Reported Earning Dates
WCN is expected to report earnings on Feb 17, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Environmental Services (-2.44% weekly)Environmental Services includes companies that collect and dispose of hazardous and non-hazardous waste. Their services include removal of toxic waste from soil, removing medical waste etc. Some companies also operate incinerators, sewerage systems, waste treatment plants, and landfills. Demand for waste management is likely to rise with increasing urbanization/industrialization. Waste Management, Inc., Republic Services, Inc., Waste Connections, Inc. and Tetra Tech, Inc. are some of the major companies in this business.
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GFL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GFL has been loosely correlated with WCN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 49% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if GFL jumps, then WCN could also see price increases.