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RSG vs WCN
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Republic Services (RSG) vs. Waste Connections (WCN) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both RSG and WCN are dominant North American solid waste and environmental services operators competing on pricing power, acquisition growth, and margin execution.
- Republic Services has delivered roughly 10% share-price gains over the past three months, while Waste Connections has risen about 8.6% over the same window, with both outpacing the broader market.
- Each company is leaning on core pricing to offset softer volumes, a pattern that has supported earnings but keeps organic growth reliant on price.
- Waste Connections currently carries a more favorable sell-side rating (Zacks Rank #2, or Buy), while Republic Services holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
- RSG's adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) margin is approximately 32.1%, slightly below WCN's roughly 32.8% margin.
- The key trade-off is scale and diversification at RSG versus a more rural, franchise-heavy footprint and faster margin trajectory at WCN.
Introduction
Republic Services (RSG) and Waste Connections (WCN) are two of the largest publicly traded waste-management companies in North America, and both have attracted investor attention in recent weeks as their defensive, cash-generative business models hold up against softer economic activity. This stock comparison is relevant for long-term investors seeking dividend growth and stability, as well as traders evaluating relative performance and market positioning within the environmental services sector. Although the two firms operate in the same industry, their geographic focus, growth engines, and margin profiles differ meaningfully, making a head-to-head review useful for anyone weighing exposure to this space.
RSG Overview and Recent Performance
Republic Services, headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona, provides recycling, solid waste, special waste, hazardous waste, and environmental field services across the United States and Canada. In recent market activity, RSG shares have advanced roughly 9.6% to 10% over the past three months, outpacing both its industry group and the S&P 500. The company raised its full-year outlook after reporting mid-single-digit revenue growth, supported by disciplined pricing, acquisitions, and recycling-related contributions.
Sentiment has been shaped by Republic Services' ability to generate earnings growth even as volumes softened. Core pricing on related revenue rose in the mid-single digits during the recent quarter, while average yield increased roughly 3.4%, offsetting a modest volume decline tied to weaker construction and industrial activity. The company's adjusted EBITDA margin held near 32.1%. Ongoing investments in artificial intelligence-enabled pricing, digital routing, and renewable natural gas (RNG) projects, as well as an expanding environmental solutions platform, have reinforced the long-term narrative, though softer commodity prices and contract losses remain monitored headwinds.
WCN Overview and Recent Performance
Waste Connections, based in Woodlands, Texas, is an integrated solid waste services company serving approximately nine million residential, commercial, and industrial customers across 46 U.S. states and six Canadian provinces. Its footprint skews toward exclusive and secondary markets, which historically supports pricing power and franchise-like economics. Over recent weeks, WCN shares have climbed about 8.6% over the past three months, also outperforming the broader market.
Recent performance has been driven by stronger-than-expected pricing, margin execution, and an improving acquisition pipeline. Second-quarter revenue rose roughly 6.4% year over year, with adjusted EBITDA growing about 6.8% to a 32.8% margin. Core pricing advanced about 5.6%, while solid waste volumes declined nearly 1.9% amid macroeconomic uncertainty and softer construction activity. Waste Connections raised its full-year guidance, and its exploration and production (E&P) waste treatment and recovery segment posted double-digit growth. Management also highlighted progress on RNG projects and an AI-backed pricing tool, while the Chiquita Canyon landfill event remains a near-term cost consideration.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Although both companies are waste-management leaders, their business models diverge in important ways. Republic Services operates a larger, more diversified platform spanning recycling, hazardous waste, and environmental field services, giving it broader exposure to industrial and sustainability-linked demand. Waste Connections, by contrast, emphasizes exclusive and secondary-market franchises where competition is lower, which has historically supported higher pricing discipline and a slightly stronger adjusted EBITDA margin.
On growth drivers, both firms lean heavily on acquisitions, or M&A (mergers and acquisitions), and core pricing. RSG has raised its acquisition investment target and returned more than $1 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, while WCN is on pace for an above-average acquisition year and has seen its E&P waste business expand rapidly. Both companies face similar risk factors, including volume softness tied to construction and industrial activity, commodity-price volatility, and fuel-cost pressure. Relative performance has been broadly comparable in recent months, though WCN's margin momentum and more favorable sell-side ranking contrast with RSG's greater scale and diversification. On valuation, both trade at elevated price-to-earnings multiples relative to the broader commercial-services sector, reflecting the defensive appeal of their cash flows.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, margin trajectory, pricing strength, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely express a modest preference for WCN in the current environment. Waste Connections has combined a stronger recent margin profile with a more favorable sell-side ranking, accelerating adjusted earnings growth, and an acquisition pipeline that provides potential upside not fully reflected in guidance. That said, RSG remains competitive on scale, diversification, and long-term dividend reliability. The AI's stance is probabilistic rather than definitive, and relative positioning could shift as volume trends, commodity prices, and acquisition activity evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is RSG is a Buy and WCN is a StrongBuy.
RSG in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026
RSG moved above its 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 31 of 46 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on RSG as a result. In 40 of 75 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for RSG just turned positive on October 07, 2026. Looking at past instances where RSG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
The 10-day moving average for RSG crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Following a +4.10% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where RSG advanced for three days, in 178 of 347 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 162 of 296 cases where RSG Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 55%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for RSG moved out of overbought territory on November 03, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 18 of the 44 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 41%.
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RSG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 40%.
RSG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. RSG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 84 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.181) is normal, around the industry mean (47.547). P/E Ratio (34.401) is within average values for comparable stocks, (56.457). RSG's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.742) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.132). Dividend Yield (0.011) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.031) is also within normal values, averaging (72.867).
WCN's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for WCN turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where WCN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 20 of 40 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on WCN as a result. In 40 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
WCN moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for WCN crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 5 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 33%.
The 50-day moving average for WCN moved above the 200-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a +3.41% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where WCN advanced for three days, in 145 of 322 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 45%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 70 of 210 cases where WCN Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 33%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 13 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where WCN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 48%.
WCN broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. WCN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 82 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.928) is normal, around the industry mean (47.547). P/E Ratio (44.978) is within average values for comparable stocks, (56.457). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.507) is also within normal values, averaging (1.132). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.102) is also within normal values, averaging (72.867).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
RSG | WCN | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 44 | 40 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 84 Overvalued | 82 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 16 | 34 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 49 | 61 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 11 | 38 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 28 | 83 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
WCN's Valuation (82) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as RSG (84). This means that WCN’s stock grew similarly to RSG’s over the last 12 months.
RSG's Profit vs Risk Rating (16) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as WCN (34). This means that RSG’s stock grew similarly to WCN’s over the last 12 months.
RSG's SMR Rating (49) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as WCN (61). This means that RSG’s stock grew similarly to WCN’s over the last 12 months.
RSG's Price Growth Rating (11) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as WCN (38). This means that RSG’s stock grew similarly to WCN’s over the last 12 months.
RSG's P/E Growth Rating (28) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for WCN (83). This means that RSG’s stock grew somewhat faster than WCN’s over the last 12 months.
| RSG | WCN | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 41% | 2 days ago 46% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 43% | 2 days ago 45% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 47% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 50% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 45% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 41% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 51% | 3 days ago 45% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 40% | 8 days ago 48% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 26% | 2 days ago 47% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 33% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
RSG’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while WCN’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- RSG’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- WCN’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
RSG’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WCN’s TA Score has 7 bullish TA indicator(s).
- RSG’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- WCN’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
RSG (@Environmental Services) experienced а +3.06% price change this week, while WCN (@Environmental Services) price change was +2.58% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Environmental Services industry was -2.00%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.82%, and the average quarterly price growth was +6.46%.
Reported Earning Dates
RSG is expected to report earnings on Feb 23, 2027.
WCN is expected to report earnings on Feb 17, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Environmental Services (-2.00% weekly)Environmental Services includes companies that collect and dispose of hazardous and non-hazardous waste. Their services include removal of toxic waste from soil, removing medical waste etc. Some companies also operate incinerators, sewerage systems, waste treatment plants, and landfills. Demand for waste management is likely to rise with increasing urbanization/industrialization. Waste Management, Inc., Republic Services, Inc., Waste Connections, Inc. and Tetra Tech, Inc. are some of the major companies in this business.
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RSG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, RSG has been closely correlated with WM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if RSG jumps, then WM could also see price increases.