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RSG vs WCN
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Republic Services (RSG) vs. Waste Connections (WCN) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- RSG (Republic Services) operates at a larger scale with roughly $16.6 billion in 2025 revenue, while WCN (Waste Connections) generated about $9.5 billion.
- Both companies rely on disciplined pricing to offset soft volumes, particularly in construction and manufacturing end markets.
- RSG has leaned into sustainability assets such as polymer centers and renewable natural gas, whereas WCN is working through Chiquita Canyon Landfill closure costs.
- WCN has attracted several fresh Overweight/Outperform ratings in recent weeks, while RSG coverage has been comparatively mixed.
- Relative valuation and market capitalization differ materially, giving the two stocks distinct risk and growth profiles.
Introduction
Republic Services and Waste Connections are two of North America's largest providers of non-hazardous solid waste collection, transfer, disposal, and recycling services. Because both operate in a defensive, recurring-revenue industry, they are frequently compared by investors seeking steady cash flow, pricing power, and resilience through economic cycles. This stock comparison examines their recent performance, growth drivers, and market positioning. It is especially relevant for long-term investors evaluating quality compounders, as well as traders watching relative momentum and sector sentiment. Understanding how these two names diverge on scale, strategy, and catalysts can help clarify which profile better matches a given portfolio objective.
RSG Overview and Recent Performance
Republic Services is a leader in environmental services, providing collection, recycling, solid waste, special waste, hazardous waste, and field services. Its business model blends residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal contracts, with a growing emphasis on recycling infrastructure, polymer centers, and renewable natural gas projects.
Recent market activity has reflected a mixed fundamental picture. RSG reported full-year 2025 revenue growth of about 3.5% and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $7.02, up 8.7% from the prior year, supported by strong core pricing. However, organic volumes declined in recent quarters, concentrated in construction and manufacturing end markets, and recycling commodity prices fell sharply. The company's Environmental Solutions segment also faced difficult comparisons after a large prior-year emergency response project. Management's 2026 guidance points to revenue of $17.05 billion to $17.15 billion and adjusted EPS of $7.20 to $7.28, signaling a cautious view on near-term volume recovery.
WCN Overview and Recent Performance
Waste Connections is an integrated solid waste services company serving roughly nine million residential, commercial, and industrial customers, primarily in exclusive and secondary markets across 46 U.S. states and six Canadian provinces. It also provides non-hazardous oilfield waste services, rail-based disposal, and intermodal services in the Pacific Northwest.
WCN delivered fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of about $2.37 billion, up 5% year over year, with adjusted EPS of $1.29 that slightly exceeded consensus. Full-year 2025 adjusted EPS reached $5.15, up from $4.79. Like RSG, WCN has leaned on core price increases while core volumes remained subdued. A distinguishing factor has been the ongoing cost and remediation burden tied to the Chiquita Canyon Landfill, which has pressured results but is expected to wind down, with major related outlays anticipated to subside after 2026. Recent analyst coverage has trended constructive, with several firms initiating or maintaining positive ratings and citing a potential free cash flow inflection.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Although both companies operate in the same industry, their profiles differ in several important ways. RSG is the larger enterprise by revenue and market capitalization, giving it broader geographic reach and a more diversified portfolio of environmental services. WCN is smaller but focuses on exclusive and secondary markets, which historically supports stronger pricing discipline and local market density.
On growth drivers, RSG has been investing heavily in sustainability infrastructure, including polymer centers and renewable natural gas, positioning for long-term margin expansion and recycling economics. WCN, by contrast, is emphasizing the resolution of Chiquita Canyon liabilities, the ramp-up of its Arrowhead Landfill and Northeast rail corridor, and a shift from vertical-integration investment toward free cash flow generation.
Risk factors also diverge. RSG's results have been sensitive to recycled commodity prices and construction-related volumes, while WCN carries a more concentrated set of operational and regulatory exposures tied to specific facilities. Market sentiment has leaned somewhat more favorably toward WCN in recent weeks, with several Overweight/Outperform ratings, whereas RSG's forward guidance came in slightly below consensus and triggered a more cautious tone. From a valuation standpoint, both trade at premium multiples typical of defensive waste franchises, but their differing growth outlooks and capital structures create distinct trade-offs.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, catalyst timing, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward WCN in the current environment. The company's steadier core pricing, anticipated free cash flow inflection as Chiquita-related spending winds down, and constructive recent analyst sentiment suggest a more clearly defined near-term catalyst path. That said, RSG retains scale advantages and a diversified sustainability pipeline that could support longer-term compounding. The relative edge is probabilistic rather than definitive, and it may shift as volume trends, commodity prices, and execution milestones evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is RSG is a Hold and WCN is a Hold.
RSG in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026
RSG moved above its 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 31 of 46 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on RSG as a result. In 44 of 76 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for RSG just turned positive on October 07, 2026. Looking at past instances where RSG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 23 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 46%.
Following a +2.13% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where RSG advanced for three days, in 181 of 351 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 10-day moving average for RSG crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 25, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 7 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 44%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RSG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 39%.
RSG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for RSG entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 41 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.420) is normal, around the industry mean (47.366). P/E Ratio (30.160) is within average values for comparable stocks, (101.033). RSG's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.742) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.132). RSG has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.012) as compared to the industry average of (0.003). P/S Ratio (4.031) is also within normal values, averaging (72.867).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. RSG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
WCN's RSI Oscillator ascends from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for WCN moved out of oversold territory on October 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 29 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 18 of the 29 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 62%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 28 of 56 cases where WCN's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on WCN as a result. In 40 of 87 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 46%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for WCN just turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where WCN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 19 of 40 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
Following a +0.56% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where WCN advanced for three days, in 148 of 326 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 45%.
WCN may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 50-day moving average for WCN moved below the 200-day moving average on September 30, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where WCN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 48%.
The Aroon Indicator for WCN entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 42 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.960) is normal, around the industry mean (47.366). P/E Ratio (37.720) is within average values for comparable stocks, (101.033). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.507) is also within normal values, averaging (1.132). WCN has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.009) as compared to the industry average of (0.003). P/S Ratio (4.102) is also within normal values, averaging (72.867).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 69 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average price growth. WCN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
RSG | WCN | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 9 | 18 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 41 Fair valued | 42 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 22 | 59 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 49 | 61 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 50 | 69 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 52 | 89 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
RSG's Valuation (41) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as WCN (42). This means that RSG’s stock grew similarly to WCN’s over the last 12 months.
RSG's Profit vs Risk Rating (22) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for WCN (59). This means that RSG’s stock grew somewhat faster than WCN’s over the last 12 months.
RSG's SMR Rating (49) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as WCN (61). This means that RSG’s stock grew similarly to WCN’s over the last 12 months.
RSG's Price Growth Rating (50) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as WCN (69). This means that RSG’s stock grew similarly to WCN’s over the last 12 months.
RSG's P/E Growth Rating (52) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for WCN (89). This means that RSG’s stock grew somewhat faster than WCN’s over the last 12 months.
| RSG | WCN | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 43% | 1 day ago 62% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 43% | 1 day ago 50% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 46% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 46% | 1 day ago 47% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 45% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 40% | 1 day ago 46% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 8 days ago 45% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 39% | 6 days ago 48% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 36% | 1 day ago 50% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 46% | 1 day ago 39% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
RSG’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while WCN’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- RSG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- WCN’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
RSG’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WCN’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- RSG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- WCN’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
RSG (@Environmental Services) experienced а +3.82% price change this week, while WCN (@Environmental Services) price change was +1.07% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Environmental Services industry was -6.37%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -15.36%, and the average quarterly price growth was -5.24%.
Reported Earning Dates
RSG is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
WCN is expected to report earnings on Oct 21, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Environmental Services (-6.37% weekly)Environmental Services includes companies that collect and dispose of hazardous and non-hazardous waste. Their services include removal of toxic waste from soil, removing medical waste etc. Some companies also operate incinerators, sewerage systems, waste treatment plants, and landfills. Demand for waste management is likely to rise with increasing urbanization/industrialization. Waste Management, Inc., Republic Services, Inc., Waste Connections, Inc. and Tetra Tech, Inc. are some of the major companies in this business.
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WCN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WCN has been closely correlated with RSG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 75% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if WCN jumps, then RSG could also see price increases.