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WCN vs WM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Waste Connections (WCN) vs. Waste Management (WM) Stock Comparison
1) Key Takeaways
- Different scales, same playbook: WM is the larger, more diversified North American operator, while WCN is a faster-growing specialist focused on exclusive and secondary markets.
- Relative performance has diverged: WCN shares have outperformed over recent months, while WM has lagged and traded lower following its latest earnings report.
- Growth vs. diversification: WCN leans on pricing and acquisitions for organic growth, whereas WM layers recycling, renewable energy, and healthcare (Stericycle) businesses onto its core collection and disposal franchise.
- Valuation gap persists: WCN trades at a higher enterprise-value-to-EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) multiple than WM, reflecting its premium growth profile.
- Both benefit from pricing discipline: Each company is offsetting softer volumes with strong core pricing, protecting margins in a mixed macro environment.
2) Introduction
Waste Connections and Waste Management are two of the most closely watched names in the environmental services sector, and they are frequently compared because they operate in the same essential, recession-resistant business: collecting, processing, and disposing of solid waste. While both generate resilient cash flow and steady pricing power, their stock comparison reveals meaningful differences in size, growth strategy, and market positioning. Long-term investors may weigh WCN's faster expansion against WM's scale and diversification, while momentum-focused traders may track how each stock's relative performance has shifted in recent weeks. Understanding these contrasts can help clarify which name better fits a given portfolio objective or market outlook.
3) WCN Overview and Recent Performance
WCN, or Waste Connections, is an integrated solid-waste services company providing non-hazardous collection, transfer, and disposal, plus recycling and renewable fuels generation. It serves roughly nine million customers across 46 U.S. states and six Canadian provinces, with a deliberate focus on exclusive and secondary markets where competitive density is lower and pricing power tends to be stronger.
In recent weeks, WCN has been one of the sector's relative outperformers. The company delivered a second-quarter beat, with adjusted earnings per share above consensus and revenue up more than 6% year over year, while raising its full-year outlook. Strong core pricing (around 5.6% in the quarter) offset a roughly 1.9% decline in solid-waste volumes tied to macroeconomic uncertainty and softer construction activity. Management also cited improving recycled-commodity trends, progress on renewable natural gas (RNG) projects, and an above-average acquisitions pipeline as supporting sentiment. This combination of pricing discipline, margin expansion, and capital deployment has reinforced WCN's premium valuation in the eyes of many investors.
4) WM Overview and Recent Performance
WM, formerly Waste Management, is North America's largest provider of comprehensive environmental solutions. Beyond core collection and disposal, WM operates substantial recycling and renewable energy businesses and, following its Stericycle acquisition, a Healthcare Solutions segment spanning regulated medical waste and secure information destruction.
WM's recent performance has been more mixed. The company beat earnings estimates in its latest quarter but reported revenue slightly below consensus, and its shares have drifted lower in the weeks since. Core price rose more than 5%, and adjusted operating EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) margin expanded, yet collection and disposal volumes declined amid tough comparisons from prior wildfire-cleanup work and the strategic exit from lower-margin residential contracts. Positively, WM generated a sharp increase in free cash flow and returned over a billion dollars to shareholders through buybacks and dividends in a single quarter. Growth in recycling and renewable energy is providing a secondary engine, though integration and volume headwinds have tempered near-term momentum.
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6) Head-to-Head Comparison
The most immediate contrast is scale. WM generates several times WCN's revenue and carries a market capitalization more than twice as large, giving it a broader footprint and deeper diversification across recycling, renewable energy, and healthcare services. WCN, by contrast, is more concentrated on solid-waste collection and disposal in favorable local markets, which has historically supported higher margins and faster organic growth.
Growth drivers also differ. WCN leans heavily on core pricing and acquisitions, treating M&A (mergers and acquisitions) as a repeatable engine for adding annualized revenue. WM supplements its waste franchise with sustainability-oriented investments—recycling automation and renewable natural gas facilities—and is still integrating its healthcare business. These initiatives widen WM's opportunity set but introduce integration risk and, in some periods, margin drag.
On valuation, WCN trades at a meaningfully higher enterprise-value-to-EBITDA multiple than WM, reflecting the market's willingness to pay for its growth and margin profile. WM's lower multiple and higher dividend yield may appeal to value- and income-oriented investors. Finally, recent momentum favors WCN, which has outperformed, while WM's shares have lagged and softened after earnings—an important divergence for traders tracking relative strength.
7) Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely tilt toward WCN in the current environment. The stock demonstrates more consistent trend strength, stronger recent relative performance, and a clearer near-term catalyst path through pricing gains, margin expansion, and an active acquisition pipeline. WM's scale, diversification, and shareholder returns remain compelling, but softer momentum, volume headwinds, and ongoing integration work introduce greater near-term uncertainty. The verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: an AI model weighting trend consistency and momentum would favor WCN, while one emphasizing value, yield, and diversification might lean toward WM. The appropriate choice ultimately depends on the specific strategy, timeframe, and risk parameters being applied.
8) Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is WCN is a Hold and WM is a Hold.
WCN's RSI Oscillator ascends from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for WCN moved out of oversold territory on October 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 29 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 18 of the 29 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 62%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 28 of 56 cases where WCN's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on WCN as a result. In 40 of 87 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 46%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for WCN just turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where WCN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 19 of 40 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
Following a +0.56% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where WCN advanced for three days, in 148 of 326 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 45%.
WCN may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 50-day moving average for WCN moved below the 200-day moving average on September 30, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where WCN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 48%.
The Aroon Indicator for WCN entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 42 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.960) is normal, around the industry mean (47.366). P/E Ratio (37.720) is within average values for comparable stocks, (101.033). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.507) is also within normal values, averaging (1.132). WCN has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.009) as compared to the industry average of (0.003). P/S Ratio (4.102) is also within normal values, averaging (72.867).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 69 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average price growth. WCN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
WM's RSI Oscillator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for WM moved out of oversold territory on October 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 24 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 16 of the 24 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on WM as a result. In 42 of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for WM just turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where WM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Following a +2.18% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where WM advanced for three days, in 160 of 336 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 48%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for WM moved below the 200-day moving average on September 24, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where WM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 45%.
WM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for WM entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 33 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (8.313) is normal, around the industry mean (47.366). P/E Ratio (29.199) is within average values for comparable stocks, (101.033). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.888) is also within normal values, averaging (1.132). WM's Dividend Yield (0.018) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.003). P/S Ratio (3.367) is also within normal values, averaging (72.867).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. WM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
WCN | WM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 18 | 27 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 42 Fair valued | 33 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 59 | 25 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 61 | 34 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 69 | 57 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 89 | 50 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
WM's Valuation (33) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as WCN (42). This means that WM’s stock grew similarly to WCN’s over the last 12 months.
WM's Profit vs Risk Rating (25) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for WCN (59). This means that WM’s stock grew somewhat faster than WCN’s over the last 12 months.
WM's SMR Rating (34) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as WCN (61). This means that WM’s stock grew similarly to WCN’s over the last 12 months.
WM's Price Growth Rating (57) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as WCN (69). This means that WM’s stock grew similarly to WCN’s over the last 12 months.
WM's P/E Growth Rating (50) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for WCN (89). This means that WM’s stock grew somewhat faster than WCN’s over the last 12 months.
| WCN | WM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 67% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 44% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 46% | 1 day ago 50% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 47% | 1 day ago 62% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 45% | 1 day ago 49% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 46% | 1 day ago 39% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 45% | 1 day ago 48% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 48% | 14 days ago 45% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 45% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 39% | 1 day ago 32% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
WCN’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while WM’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- WCN’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- WM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
WCN’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- WCN’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
- WM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
WCN (@Environmental Services) experienced а +1.07% price change this week, while WM (@Environmental Services) price change was +3.26% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Environmental Services industry was -6.37%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -15.36%, and the average quarterly price growth was -5.24%.
Reported Earning Dates
WCN is expected to report earnings on Oct 21, 2026.
WM is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Environmental Services (-6.37% weekly)Environmental Services includes companies that collect and dispose of hazardous and non-hazardous waste. Their services include removal of toxic waste from soil, removing medical waste etc. Some companies also operate incinerators, sewerage systems, waste treatment plants, and landfills. Demand for waste management is likely to rise with increasing urbanization/industrialization. Waste Management, Inc., Republic Services, Inc., Waste Connections, Inc. and Tetra Tech, Inc. are some of the major companies in this business.
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WCN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WCN has been closely correlated with RSG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 75% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if WCN jumps, then RSG could also see price increases.