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WCN vs WM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Waste Connections (WCN) vs. Waste Management (WM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- WCN has outperformed WM year-to-date (YTD, meaning from the start of the current year), with returns of 7.86% compared to 4.54%.
- Both companies reported earnings per share (EPS) beats in their first quarter 2026 results, with WCN revenue up 6.4% year-over-year (YoY) and WM adjusted EPS of $1.81.
- WCN's market cap stands at approximately $41 billion, smaller than WM's $92 billion, reflecting differing scales in the waste management sector.
- Analyst price targets suggest greater upside potential for WCN at around $204 (24% from recent levels) versus WM at $256 (12%).
- Recent momentum favors WCN, which gained post-earnings, amid stable sector demand.
- Both exhibit low beta (a measure of volatility relative to the market), under 0.65, underscoring defensive positioning.
Introduction
Waste Connections (WCN) and Waste Management (WM) are leading players in the waste management industry, providing essential services like collection, transfer, disposal, and recycling across North America. This stock comparison is particularly relevant for investors seeking defensive holdings in a volatile market, as the sector benefits from steady demand driven by population growth and regulatory needs. Traders analyzing relative performance may find value in their contrasting scales, growth strategies, and recent momentum. With both delivering solid quarterly results amid broader economic uncertainty, understanding their market positioning helps inform portfolio decisions in this resilient space.
WCN Overview and Recent Performance
Waste Connections (WCN) operates primarily in non-hazardous solid waste collection, transfer, disposal, and recycling, with a strong presence in secondary markets across the U.S. and Canada. In recent market activity, WCN shares have shown resilience, trading around $161 with a year-to-date gain of 7.86% and one-year return of 17.37%. The first quarter 2026 results highlighted revenue of $2.371 billion, up 6.4% YoY, and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) of $769.5 million, up 8% YoY, beating expectations. EPS came in at $1.23, surpassing forecasts. Sentiment has improved on acquisition-driven growth and margin expansion outlook, with shares gaining post-earnings. Stable volumes in special waste and pricing discipline have supported performance, though shares remain below 52-week highs amid sector rotation.
WM Overview and Recent Performance
Waste Management (WM), the largest U.S. waste services provider, focuses on integrated operations including collection, recycling, and renewable natural gas (RNG) production. Recently, WM shares hovered near $229, with YTD returns at 4.54% and one-year at 0.50%. Q1 2026 delivered adjusted EPS of $1.81, beating estimates, alongside revenue of $6.23 billion, up 3.5% YoY but slightly missing consensus; cash flow from operations rose 24% to $1.5 billion. The company reaffirmed its full-year outlook, buoyed by cost optimization and strategic investments. Performance reflects steady core volumes offset by softer commercial trends, fostering positive but cautious sentiment as shares trade within recent ranges.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
WCN and WM share sector exposure in waste management but differ in scale and strategy. WCN emphasizes acquisitions for growth in secondary markets, yielding higher recent momentum and a premium P/E of 39x versus WM's 33x. WM leverages its vast U.S. footprint for recycling and RNG, driving operational efficiencies and higher dividends (1.49% yield vs. 0.87%). Growth drivers include pricing power for both, but WCN shows stronger volume gains in special waste. Risk factors are low across the board due to defensive demand, though WM faces volume headwinds. Market sentiment tilts toward WCN for upside potential amid relative outperformance.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently leans toward WCN based on superior trend consistency, YTD momentum, and analyst-implied upside in recent market activity. Factors like acquisition synergies and earnings beats position it favorably relative to WM, though WM's scale offers stability. This probabilistic edge reflects observable catalysts rather than guarantees.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is WCN is a Buy and WM is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
WCN’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileWM’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- WCN’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- WM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
WCN’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- WCN’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- WM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
WCN (@Environmental Services) experienced а +0.57% price change this week, while WM (@Environmental Services) price change was -0.43% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Environmental Services industry was -1.84%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +8.85%, and the average quarterly price growth was -2.73%.
Reported Earning Dates
WCN is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
WM is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Environmental Services (-1.84% weekly)Environmental Services includes companies that collect and dispose of hazardous and non-hazardous waste. Their services include removal of toxic waste from soil, removing medical waste etc. Some companies also operate incinerators, sewerage systems, waste treatment plants, and landfills. Demand for waste management is likely to rise with increasing urbanization/industrialization. Waste Management, Inc., Republic Services, Inc., Waste Connections, Inc. and Tetra Tech, Inc. are some of the major companies in this business.
| WCN | WM | WCN / WM | |
| Capitalization | 39.7B | 88.1B | 45% |
| EBITDA | 2.99B | 7.34B | 41% |
| Gain YTD | -10.590 | 0.713 | -1,485% |
| P/E Ratio | 38.08 | 31.76 | 120% |
| Revenue | 9.61B | 25.4B | 38% |
| Total Cash | 112M | 158M | 71% |
| Total Debt | 9.43B | 22.9B | 41% |
WCN | WM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 15 | 24 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 43 Fair valued | 33 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 56 | 22 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 63 | 33 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 58 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 94 | 64 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
WM's Valuation (33) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as WCN (43). This means that WM’s stock grew similarly to WCN’s over the last 12 months.
WM's Profit vs Risk Rating (22) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for WCN (56). This means that WM’s stock grew somewhat faster than WCN’s over the last 12 months.
WM's SMR Rating (33) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as WCN (63). This means that WM’s stock grew similarly to WCN’s over the last 12 months.
WM's Price Growth Rating (58) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as WCN (60). This means that WM’s stock grew similarly to WCN’s over the last 12 months.
WM's P/E Growth Rating (64) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as WCN (94). This means that WM’s stock grew similarly to WCN’s over the last 12 months.
| WCN | WM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 67% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 47% | 3 days ago 41% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 50% | 3 days ago 51% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 47% | 3 days ago 56% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 46% | 3 days ago 41% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 40% | 3 days ago 49% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 46% | 5 days ago 50% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 17 days ago 45% | 17 days ago 42% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 35% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 36% | 3 days ago 27% |
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WM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WM has been closely correlated with RSG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if WM jumps, then RSG could also see price increases.