Advertisement
CWST vs WCN
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Casella Waste Systems (CWST) vs. Waste Connections (WCN) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Scale gap: WCN is a roughly $40 billion market-cap national operator, while CWST is a regional, roughly $5 billion player focused on the eastern U.S.
- Growth profiles: CWST is growing faster on an acquisition-driven basis, while WCN delivers steadier, more mature organic growth and wider margins.
- Profitability: WCN's adjusted EBITDA margin (roughly 33%) is materially higher than CWST's (about 21%).
- Recent momentum: WCN has outperformed over the past quarter, while CWST has lagged year-to-date despite a "Buy" consensus among analysts.
- Risk mix: CWST carries integration and landfill-capacity concentration risk; WCN faces volume softness and elevated fuel costs.
Introduction
Both CWST and WCN operate in the defensive, cash-generative solid waste industry, yet they represent very different investment profiles. Casella Waste Systems is a fast-growing regional consolidator in the northeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S., while Waste Connections is a large, diversified North American operator with a disciplined secondary-and-exclusive-market model. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing growth and acquisition-driven upside against scale, margin quality, and income. The relative performance and market positioning of the two names highlight a classic trade-off between faster expansion and more established, durable profitability.
CWST Overview and Recent Performance
Casella Waste Systems, headquartered in Rutland, Vermont, provides solid waste collection, disposal, transfer, recycling, and organics services across the eastern United States. In recent quarters, the company has leaned heavily on acquisitions and disciplined pricing. First-half 2026 revenue rose sharply year over year, and the company raised its full-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) guidance. Solid waste pricing advanced about 5%, while adjusted EBITDA margins expanded roughly 50 basis points.
Recent market activity has been more subdued. The shares have lagged year-to-date despite a consensus "Buy" rating and an average analyst price target above the current level. Sentiment has been shaped by softer winter volumes, a decline in recycled commodity prices, and integration work in the Mid-Atlantic. Management has also flagged near-term margin dilution from newly closed acquisitions. Longer-term, the company points to tight Northeast landfill capacity, a permit expansion at its Hakes landfill in New York, and a growing renewable natural gas (RNG) program as structural tailwinds.
WCN Overview and Recent Performance
Waste Connections is an integrated solid waste services company serving roughly nine million residential, commercial, industrial, and exploration-and-production (E&P) customers across the U.S. and Canada. Its model emphasizes secondary and exclusive markets, which has historically supported above-average pricing and customer retention. Recent results reflect that playbook: second-quarter revenue rose about 6% year over year, adjusted EBITDA grew at a similar pace, and adjusted EBITDA margin held near 33%. Core pricing of roughly 5.6% offset a decline in unit volumes.
Over the past quarter, WCN shares have outperformed the broader industry, supported by an upgraded full-year outlook, an AI-assisted pricing tool, and continued M&A (mergers and acquisitions) activity. Headwinds include softer construction-related volumes, elevated diesel costs, and free-cash-flow pressure tied to remediation at the Chiquita Canyon landfill and renewable natural gas capital spending. The company also returns capital through a quarterly dividend and share repurchases.
Trending AI Robots
For traders looking to systematize this type of analysis, Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page showcases a curated selection of AI trading bots drawn from hundreds of available bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers. Each bot uses a distinct trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance record, and universe of tickers, so only those best suited to current market conditions earn a place in this featured section. The platform highlights measurable statistics, including win rates, trade frequency, and return metrics, helping users compare bots at a glance. Whether you are evaluating CWST, WCN, or the broader market, exploring the Trending AI Robots page can help you identify data-driven strategies aligned with today's environment.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ most clearly in scale and margin structure. WCN is an industry leader with an adjusted EBITDA margin near 33% and a diversified geographic footprint that reduces single-market dependency. CWST is a regional consolidator with a mid-teens-percentage revenue growth trajectory but a lower margin profile, as acquisition integration and regional operating costs weigh on profitability.
Growth drivers also diverge. CWST's expansion is heavily acquisition-led, with several deals closed in 2026 adding meaningful annualized revenue. WCN grows through a combination of core pricing, tuck-in acquisitions, and efficiency initiatives, including AI-powered pricing and routing tools expected to contribute incremental margin over time.
On risk, CWST faces concentration in Northeast landfill capacity and execution risk from integrating acquired assets. WCN faces broader macro sensitivity through construction volumes and elevated fuel costs, though its surcharge and hedging programs partially offset these. In terms of recent momentum and market sentiment, WCN has shown stronger relative performance, while CWST's richer growth narrative has yet to be rewarded by the market in recent weeks.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, margin stability, and diversified market positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor WCN in the current environment. Waste Connections combines a more durable, higher-margin operating model with stronger recent price momentum and a steadier earnings trajectory, attributes that algorithmic models typically weight favorably. Casella's faster growth and acquisition pipeline remain compelling, but its lower margins, integration-related uncertainty, and softer recent performance introduce comparatively more variability. The assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive: CWST may offer greater upside if its synergy and pricing execution accelerate, while WCN presently appears better positioned on stability and relative positioning.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CWST is a Buy and WCN is a StrongBuy.
CWST in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026
The 10-day moving average for CWST crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CWST as a result. In 44 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CWST just turned positive on October 07, 2026. Looking at past instances where CWST's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 54 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
CWST moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +8.39% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CWST advanced for three days, in 190 of 317 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 149 of 257 cases where CWST Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 58%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for CWST moved out of overbought territory on October 26, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 31 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 20 of the 31 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 65%.
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CWST declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
CWST broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 34 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CWST’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CWST’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 90 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 99 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.983) is normal, around the industry mean (47.547). CWST's P/E Ratio (1236.000) is considerably higher than the industry average of (56.457). CWST's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.210) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.132). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.929) is also within normal values, averaging (72.867).
WCN's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for WCN turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where WCN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 20 of 40 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on WCN as a result. In 40 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
WCN moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for WCN crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 5 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 33%.
The 50-day moving average for WCN moved above the 200-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a +3.41% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where WCN advanced for three days, in 145 of 322 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 45%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 70 of 210 cases where WCN Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 33%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 13 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where WCN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 48%.
WCN broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. WCN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 82 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.928) is normal, around the industry mean (47.547). P/E Ratio (44.978) is within average values for comparable stocks, (56.457). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.507) is also within normal values, averaging (1.132). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.102) is also within normal values, averaging (72.867).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
CWST | WCN | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 36 | 40 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 99 Overvalued | 82 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 73 | 34 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 90 | 61 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 40 | 38 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 3 | 83 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 34 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
WCN's Valuation (82) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as CWST (99). This means that WCN’s stock grew similarly to CWST’s over the last 12 months.
WCN's Profit vs Risk Rating (34) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CWST (73). This means that WCN’s stock grew somewhat faster than CWST’s over the last 12 months.
WCN's SMR Rating (61) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as CWST (90). This means that WCN’s stock grew similarly to CWST’s over the last 12 months.
WCN's Price Growth Rating (38) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as CWST (40). This means that WCN’s stock grew similarly to CWST’s over the last 12 months.
CWST's P/E Growth Rating (3) in the Environmental Services industry is significantly better than the same rating for WCN (83). This means that CWST’s stock grew significantly faster than WCN’s over the last 12 months.
| CWST | WCN | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 46% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 45% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 47% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 50% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 45% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 41% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 60% | 3 days ago 45% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 64% | 8 days ago 48% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 47% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 33% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CWST’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while WCN’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- CWST’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- WCN’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CWST’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WCN’s TA Score has 7 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CWST’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- WCN’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CWST (@Environmental Services) experienced а +2.69% price change this week, while WCN (@Environmental Services) price change was +2.58% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Environmental Services industry was -2.44%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.20%, and the average quarterly price growth was +6.12%.
Reported Earning Dates
CWST is expected to report earnings on Nov 09, 2026.
WCN is expected to report earnings on Feb 17, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Environmental Services (-2.44% weekly)Environmental Services includes companies that collect and dispose of hazardous and non-hazardous waste. Their services include removal of toxic waste from soil, removing medical waste etc. Some companies also operate incinerators, sewerage systems, waste treatment plants, and landfills. Demand for waste management is likely to rise with increasing urbanization/industrialization. Waste Management, Inc., Republic Services, Inc., Waste Connections, Inc. and Tetra Tech, Inc. are some of the major companies in this business.
Advertisement
CWST and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CWST has been loosely correlated with WM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 56% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CWST jumps, then WM could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CWST | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWST | 100% | -1.70% | ||
| WM - CWST | 56% Loosely correlated | -1.28% | ||
| RSG - CWST | 51% Loosely correlated | -1.26% | ||
| GFL - CWST | 40% Loosely correlated | -0.61% | ||
| CLH - CWST | 29% Poorly correlated | -0.43% | ||
| GWAV - CWST | 9% Poorly correlated | +2.99% | ||
More | ||||