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CWST vs WCN
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Casella Waste Systems (CWST) vs. Waste Connections (WCN) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CWST and WCN both delivered Q1 2026 earnings beats, with CWST revenue rising 9.6% year-over-year to $457 million and WCN up 6.4% to $2.37 billion.
- CWST has outperformed YTD with an 11.3% gain compared to WCN's 7.9%, amid recent market momentum in the waste sector.
- CWST's tuck-in acquisitions added approximately $150 million in annualized revenue year-to-date, signaling aggressive growth.
- WCN demonstrates superior scale and profitability, with a 11% profit margin versus CWST's 0.4%, and a lower beta of 0.61 indicating reduced volatility.
- Analyst targets suggest upside for both: CWST at $111 (28% potential) and WCN at $204 (27% potential).
- Tickeron's AI tools highlight momentum favoring CWST in current conditions.
Introduction
CWST and WCN operate in the essential waste management sector, providing collection, disposal, recycling, and resource services amid rising demand for sustainable solutions. This comparison is relevant for investors seeking relative performance in industrials, particularly those tracking sector rotation, acquisition-driven growth, and earnings momentum. With both stocks showing resilience in recent market activity, traders can evaluate trade-offs in scale, regional focus, and volatility to inform positioning in portfolios focused on stock comparison and market positioning.
CWST Overview and Recent Performance
Casella Waste Systems (CWST) is a regional provider of integrated solid waste collection, disposal, transfer, recycling, and resource management services, primarily in the northeastern and north central United States. In recent weeks, CWST shares surged over 9% following a strong Q1 2026 earnings report, where revenue grew 9.6% year-over-year to $457.3 million, surpassing estimates, and EPS reached $0.20 against expectations of $0.18. The company completed acquisitions adding about $150 million in annualized revenue year-to-date, bolstering growth outlook and updating full-year 2026 guidance upward. Sentiment has shifted positively on operational execution despite recycling challenges, with YTD returns at 11.3% and a market cap of $5.5 billion. Trading near the lower end of its 52-week range (74-121), CWST reflects heightened growth expectations tempered by a high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 724.
WCN Overview and Recent Performance
Waste Connections (WCN) delivers non-hazardous waste collection, transfer, disposal, and recycling services across North America, with a diversified footprint spanning the U.S. and Canada. Recent market activity saw WCN shares rise post-Q1 2026 earnings, which beat expectations with revenue up 6.4% to $2.37 billion and EPS of $1.23 topping forecasts of $1.19; management hinted at potential outperformance against 2026 outlook. YTD performance stands at 7.9%, with a substantial $41 billion market cap underscoring its scale. Shares trade within a tighter 52-week range (155-199), supported by a reasonable P/E of 39 and strong profitability metrics like 11% profit margins and 13% return on equity (ROE). Influences include steady core pricing and volume trends, though recent dips reflect broader sector softness.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both CWST and WCN thrive in waste management, but CWST's regional northeastern focus contrasts WCN's expansive North American operations, exposing CWST to localized competition while granting WCN broader diversification. Growth drivers differ: CWST pursues aggressive tuck-in acquisitions for rapid expansion, versus WCN's steady organic pricing and larger deals. Recent momentum favors CWST with superior YTD returns and earnings-driven surge, while WCN offers stability via lower beta (0.61 vs. 0.84) and higher free cash flow scalability. Risk factors include CWST's elevated debt-to-equity (79%) and thin margins amid recycling volatility, compared to WCN's robust 11% margins but higher absolute leverage. Sector exposure aligns on essentials, yet market sentiment leans toward CWST's catalysts in recent weeks, trading at a premium valuation multiple.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward CWST with higher probability in the near term, driven by consistent earnings beats, acquisition momentum, and relative YTD outperformance amid favorable waste sector trends. WCN remains a strong contender for stability seekers, but CWST's catalysts suggest greater upside potential in current positioning.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CWST is a Hold and WCN is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CWST’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileWCN’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- CWST’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- WCN’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CWST’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WCN’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CWST’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
- WCN’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CWST (@Environmental Services) experienced а +4.04% price change this week, while WCN (@Environmental Services) price change was +0.57% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Environmental Services industry was -1.84%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +8.85%, and the average quarterly price growth was -2.73%.
Reported Earning Dates
CWST is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
WCN is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Environmental Services (-1.84% weekly)Environmental Services includes companies that collect and dispose of hazardous and non-hazardous waste. Their services include removal of toxic waste from soil, removing medical waste etc. Some companies also operate incinerators, sewerage systems, waste treatment plants, and landfills. Demand for waste management is likely to rise with increasing urbanization/industrialization. Waste Management, Inc., Republic Services, Inc., Waste Connections, Inc. and Tetra Tech, Inc. are some of the major companies in this business.
| CWST | WCN | CWST / WCN | |
| Capitalization | 5.69B | 39.7B | 14% |
| EBITDA | 386M | 2.99B | 13% |
| Gain YTD | -8.750 | -10.590 | 83% |
| P/E Ratio | 812.45 | 38.08 | 2,134% |
| Revenue | 1.88B | 9.61B | 20% |
| Total Cash | 127M | 112M | 113% |
| Total Debt | 1.24B | 9.43B | 13% |
CWST | WCN | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 59 | 15 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 96 Overvalued | 43 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 72 | 56 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 91 | 63 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 58 | 60 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 19 | 94 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
WCN's Valuation (43) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CWST (96). This means that WCN’s stock grew somewhat faster than CWST’s over the last 12 months.
WCN's Profit vs Risk Rating (56) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as CWST (72). This means that WCN’s stock grew similarly to CWST’s over the last 12 months.
WCN's SMR Rating (63) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as CWST (91). This means that WCN’s stock grew similarly to CWST’s over the last 12 months.
CWST's Price Growth Rating (58) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as WCN (60). This means that CWST’s stock grew similarly to WCN’s over the last 12 months.
CWST's P/E Growth Rating (19) in the Environmental Services industry is significantly better than the same rating for WCN (94). This means that CWST’s stock grew significantly faster than WCN’s over the last 12 months.
| CWST | WCN | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 70% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 47% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 50% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 47% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 46% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 40% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 62% | 4 days ago 46% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 16 days ago 45% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 36% |
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CWST and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CWST has been loosely correlated with RSG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 53% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CWST jumps, then RSG could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CWST | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWST | 100% | -0.43% | ||
| RSG - CWST | 53% Loosely correlated | +0.89% | ||
| WM - CWST | 50% Loosely correlated | +0.30% | ||
| WCN - CWST | 48% Loosely correlated | +0.41% | ||
| GFL - CWST | 44% Loosely correlated | +0.28% | ||
| CLH - CWST | 32% Poorly correlated | +0.35% | ||
More | ||||
WCN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WCN has been closely correlated with RSG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if WCN jumps, then RSG could also see price increases.