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GRC vs MWA
Which Stock Would AI Choose? The Gorman-Rupp Company (GRC) vs. Mueller Water Products (MWA) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Divergent scale, shared sector: MWA is roughly twice the size of GRC by revenue, yet both operate at the intersection of water infrastructure and industrial manufacturing.
- Momentum gap is wide: GRC has delivered a year-to-date gain exceeding 70%, driven by record orders and data center demand tailwinds, while MWA has posted a more modest mid-single-digit YTD return.
- Valuation reflects growth expectations: GRC trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio above 34, whereas MWA sits near 19, indicating the market is pricing significantly higher growth into GRC.
- Balance sheet trajectories differ: GRC has prioritized aggressive debt reduction, cutting total debt by $60 million in fiscal 2025, while MWA maintains a low-leverage profile with net debt leverage of just 0.3x adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization).
- End-market exposure is a key differentiator: GRC benefits disproportionately from data center construction and fire suppression, while MWA is more levered to municipal water infrastructure repair and replacement cycles.
Introduction
Investors tracking the industrial and water infrastructure space may find a comparison between The Gorman-Rupp Company (GRC) and Mueller Water Products (MWA) particularly instructive. Though both companies serve essential water-related end markets, they differ sharply in size, growth trajectory, valuation, and investor sentiment. This comparison examines how each stock has navigated the current market environment, what has driven their respective price behavior in recent weeks, and how an AI-driven analytical framework might assess their relative positioning. The analysis is relevant for traders evaluating momentum-driven opportunities as well as longer-term investors weighing infrastructure exposure against valuation risk.
GRC Overview and Recent Performance
GRC, The Gorman-Rupp Company, is an Ohio-based designer and manufacturer of pumps and pump systems serving water, wastewater, construction, industrial, petroleum, agriculture, and fire suppression markets. The company reported record full-year 2025 results, with net sales reaching $682.4 million (up 3.4% year-over-year), record net income of $53.0 million ($2.02 per share), and record incoming orders of $728.4 million, a 10.5% increase. Its backlog stood at $244 million at year-end, providing healthy revenue visibility. In recent weeks, GRC shares have experienced pronounced volatility — reaching a 52-week high above $92 in early July before pulling back toward the $80 level. The stock remains up more than 70% year-to-date, supported by multiple catalysts: growing demand tied to data center construction, strength in fire suppression and industrial markets, and disciplined debt reduction (total debt fell by $60 million in 2025). A facility optimization initiative at the company's National Pump Company subsidiary is expected to yield annualized savings of $2.0 to $2.5 million. GRC also raised its dividend for the 52nd consecutive year, underscoring management's confidence in cash flow durability.
MWA Overview and Recent Performance
MWA, Mueller Water Products, is a leading North American manufacturer of products and solutions used in the transmission, distribution, and measurement of water. Its portfolio spans iron gate valves, fire hydrants, specialty valves, pipe repair systems, and advanced metering technologies. For its fiscal year ended September 2025, MWA reported record net sales of $1,429.7 million (up 8.7%), with adjusted operating income rising 25.4% to $279.1 million and adjusted EBITDA reaching $326.2 million. Gross margin expanded by more than 600 basis points over a two-year transformation period, reflecting manufacturing efficiencies and the closure of a legacy brass foundry. In recent market activity, MWA shares have traded in a relatively narrow band, hovering near the $25 level with a 52-week range of $22.74 to $31.00. Year-to-date performance is roughly flat to modestly positive. The company faces ongoing tariff-related headwinds, though pricing actions and operational improvements have helped mitigate the impact. Analyst sentiment leans neutral, with a consensus "Hold" rating and an average price target near $30. A recent insider purchase by a board director signals some level of internal confidence in the company's near-term outlook.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The contrast between these two water-centric industrials is striking. In terms of business model, GRC is a pump and pump-system specialist with roughly 75% of revenue derived from the U.S. and a diversified mix of end markets, including a growing contribution from data center-related demand. MWA, by comparison, is a broader water infrastructure platform with a dominant North American footprint, heavily tied to municipal replacement cycles and infrastructure spending. Revenue scale clearly favors MWA, which generated more than double GRC's top line in its most recent fiscal year.
On growth drivers, GRC's recent momentum is fueled by a surge in incoming orders (up 10.5% in 2025), debt paydown, and expanding operating margins. The data center construction boom has emerged as a particularly potent catalyst across multiple GRC end markets, including fire suppression and industrial pumps. MWA's growth narrative is steadier, anchored by aging U.S. water infrastructure, commercial execution improvements, and foundry modernization — though tariff exposure and foreign currency headwinds (particularly from the Israeli shekel) have tempered near-term optimism.
Risk profiles diverge meaningfully. GRC carries a beta of approximately 1.28, reflecting higher sensitivity to broader market swings, and its elevated P/E ratio above 34 leaves less room for disappointment. Debt, while declining, remains a focus area. MWA's beta near 1.03 signals lower systematic risk, and its P/E of roughly 19 suggests a less demanding valuation. However, MWA's exposure to tariff policy uncertainty and municipal budget cycles introduces its own set of risks.
Market sentiment appears to favor GRC's momentum story in the current environment, with the stock's dramatic YTD surge reflecting investor enthusiasm for its data center adjacency and operational turnaround. MWA, while fundamentally sound, has struggled to sustain upward price momentum, with its stock essentially rangebound in recent months.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable technical and fundamental factors, Tickeron's AI-driven analytical framework would likely find a stronger near-term case for GRC relative to MWA. GRC's trend consistency — characterized by record orders, expanding margins, and powerful year-to-date price momentum — aligns well with trend-following models that prioritize directional strength and catalyst density. The data center demand theme provides a secular growth narrative that MWA lacks to the same degree. That said, the AI would also likely flag GRC's elevated valuation and recent pullback from highs as warranting caution, and would note that MWA's lower beta, more attractive P/E multiple, and consistent free cash flow generation make it a potentially more suitable candidate for mean-reversion or stability-oriented strategies. In a probabilistic framework, GRC appears to hold the edge for momentum-driven and catalyst-sensitive approaches in the current market environment, while MWA may appeal more to strategies that emphasize valuation support and lower volatility.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GRC is a Hold and MWA is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GRC’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileMWA’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- GRC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- MWA’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GRC’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MWA’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GRC’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 7 bearish.
- MWA’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
GRC (@Industrial Machinery) experienced а -0.66% price change this week, while MWA (@Industrial Machinery) price change was +0.84% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Industrial Machinery industry was -1.07%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -11.16%, and the average quarterly price growth was -5.53%.
Reported Earning Dates
GRC is expected to report earnings on Oct 23, 2026.
MWA is expected to report earnings on Aug 10, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Industrial Machinery (-1.07% weekly)The industry makes and maintains machines for consumers, the industry, and most other companies. While it has traditionally been categorized as heavy industry, some smaller companies are also branching into the light category. The industry is pivotal in providing the equipment for production in businesses like agriculture, mining, industry and construction, gas, electricity and water utilities. It also supplies supporting equipment for almost all sectors of the economy, such as equipment for heating, and air conditioning of buildings. Illinois Tool Works Inc., Parker-Hannifin Corporation and Rockwell Automation Inc are some of the major U.S. companies operating in this industry.
| GRC | MWA | GRC / MWA | |
| Capitalization | 2.14B | 3.95B | 54% |
| EBITDA | 130M | 343M | 38% |
| Gain YTD | 70.943 | 6.495 | 1,092% |
| P/E Ratio | 34.26 | 19.12 | 179% |
| Revenue | 702M | 1.46B | 48% |
| Total Cash | 43.6M | 421M | 10% |
| Total Debt | 275M | 452M | 61% |
GRC | MWA | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 78 | 10 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 62 Fair valued | 26 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 17 | 28 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 58 | 45 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 39 | 58 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 14 | 82 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 33 | 65 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MWA's Valuation (26) in the Industrial Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GRC (62). This means that MWA’s stock grew somewhat faster than GRC’s over the last 12 months.
GRC's Profit vs Risk Rating (17) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as MWA (28). This means that GRC’s stock grew similarly to MWA’s over the last 12 months.
MWA's SMR Rating (45) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as GRC (58). This means that MWA’s stock grew similarly to GRC’s over the last 12 months.
GRC's Price Growth Rating (39) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as MWA (58). This means that GRC’s stock grew similarly to MWA’s over the last 12 months.
GRC's P/E Growth Rating (14) in the Industrial Machinery industry is significantly better than the same rating for MWA (82). This means that GRC’s stock grew significantly faster than MWA’s over the last 12 months.
| GRC | MWA | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 48% | 4 days ago 68% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 74% | 4 days ago 61% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 51% | 4 days ago 64% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 60% | 4 days ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | 4 days ago 56% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 70% | 7 days ago 62% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 60% | 5 days ago 58% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 51% | 4 days ago 59% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 59% | 4 days ago 61% |
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GRC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GRC has been closely correlated with LECO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 69% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if GRC jumps, then LECO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To GRC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRC | 100% | +0.62% | ||
| LECO - GRC | 69% Closely correlated | +4.43% | ||
| KMT - GRC | 68% Closely correlated | +1.95% | ||
| RBC - GRC | 65% Loosely correlated | -1.88% | ||
| NPO - GRC | 65% Loosely correlated | +0.31% | ||
| HLMN - GRC | 62% Loosely correlated | -0.38% | ||
More | ||||
MWA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MWA has been loosely correlated with SPXC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 65% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MWA jumps, then SPXC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MWA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MWA | 100% | +1.16% | ||
| SPXC - MWA | 65% Loosely correlated | +10.20% | ||
| GGG - MWA | 61% Loosely correlated | -0.76% | ||
| WTS - MWA | 59% Loosely correlated | +0.49% | ||
| GRC - MWA | 59% Loosely correlated | +0.62% | ||
| FELE - MWA | 58% Loosely correlated | +1.21% | ||
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