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GWRE vs SAP
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Guidewire Software (GWRE) vs. SAP SE (SAP) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Guidewire Software (GWRE) is a specialist provider of cloud software for property and casualty (P&C) insurers, while SAP SE (SAP) is a diversified enterprise-software giant serving businesses across industries worldwide.
- The two companies operate at very different scales: SAP's market capitalization is roughly $276 billion, while Guidewire's is approximately $16 billion.
- Guidewire has been expanding margins and generating strong cash flow but recently repriced lower after guiding to slower revenue growth for fiscal 2027.
- SAP is growing cloud revenue at a double-digit pace but has faced an investor "SaaSpocalypse" selloff over AI disruption concerns, leaving its shares down substantially for 2026.
- Both names carry recurring-revenue (subscription) business models, yet their growth drivers, risk profiles, and market positioning differ meaningfully.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines two enterprise-software companies with distinct market footprints. Guidewire Software is a focused vendor of cloud platforms that power the core policy, billing, and claims operations of property and casualty insurers. SAP SE, by contrast, is Europe's largest software company, selling enterprise resource planning (ERP) and cloud applications to a broad base of global customers. Traders and investors weighing a specialized, higher-growth software story against a diversified, blue-chip software franchise may find this relative performance comparison useful. Both stocks have experienced meaningful sentiment shifts in recent market activity, making a side-by-side look at their momentum, risk factors, and market positioning especially timely.
GWRE Overview and Recent Performance
GWRE (Guidewire Software) provides a technology platform that helps property and casualty insurers manage core operations, digital engagement, and analytics, with systems powering hundreds of insurance brands across more than 40 countries. The company has emphasized artificial intelligence (AI) as a driver of customer adoption and product expansion. In recent quarters, Guidewire delivered strong financial results, including accelerating annual recurring revenue (ARR), which measures the predictable, subscription-based portion of its revenue, and expanding non-GAAP operating margins and free cash flow.
Despite solid fundamentals, Guidewire's shares fell sharply in recent market activity after the company guided fiscal 2027 revenue growth to roughly 16%, a notable deceleration from the roughly 23% growth it had just delivered. Management also flagged that ARR attrition (customer churn) could normalize higher after a record-low year. This growth-deceleration signal triggered a significant de-rating in the stock, even as several analysts maintained positive ratings and raised price targets. The episode illustrates how sentiment can shift quickly for a high-multiple software name when forward growth expectations moderate.
SAP Overview and Recent Performance
SAP (SAP SE) is a diversified enterprise-software provider headquartered in Germany, offering ERP, cloud applications, and data and AI solutions to organizations across virtually every industry. Its growth engine in recent periods has been cloud revenue, which has risen at a double-digit pace, while legacy software-support revenue has declined as customers migrate to the cloud. SAP's current cloud backlog—contracted cloud revenue expected within the next twelve months—provides meaningful revenue visibility and has been a focal point for analysts.
For much of 2026, SAP's stock has been pressured by a broader selloff in software-as-a-service (SaaS) names tied to concerns that AI could disrupt traditional software business models. The shares fell substantially from their prior highs before staging a recovery following better-than-expected quarterly results that showed resilient cloud growth and improved profitability. Heading into its next earnings report, SAP trades with a consensus "Buy" rating and a price target implying further upside, though the market continues to weigh the transition away from legacy revenue streams against its cloud momentum.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two companies is scope and focus. Guidewire is a specialized, mid-cap software vendor concentrated on a single vertical—property and casualty insurance—which gives it deep domain expertise but exposes it to insurance-industry IT budgets and deal lumpiness. SAP is a diversified mega-cap franchise whose broad customer base and geographic reach provide stability, though its sheer scale makes double-digit total growth harder to sustain.
Growth drivers also diverge. Guidewire's momentum is tied to cloud migrations, AI-enabled products, and expanding ARR, with the market now scrutinizing whether that growth can hold in the high teens. SAP's story hinges on converting a large installed base to cloud subscriptions while protecting profitability during the transition. On risk factors, Guidewire faces concentration and valuation-sensitivity risk after its recent repricing, while SAP faces competitive and AI-disruption concerns that have weighed on sentiment throughout 2026. From a valuation standpoint, both trade at premium multiples relative to the broader software sector, reflecting their recurring-revenue profiles, but SAP's larger scale and dividend yield give it a more defensive market positioning than the higher-beta Guidewire.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor SAP in the current environment. SAP's massive scale, diversified revenue base, strong cloud backlog, and consensus "Buy" rating suggest more stable market positioning and clearer near-term catalysts, even amid the AI-disruption narrative. Guidewire's fundamentals remain strong, but its recent growth-deceleration guide and the sharp de-rating in its shares indicate less consistent trend behavior in the near term. This is a probabilistic assessment rather than a definitive forecast: the outcome depends on how each company executes against expectations in the quarters ahead, and either stock could lead as conditions evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GWRE is a Hold and SAP is a Hold.
GWRE in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on November 06, 2026
GWRE moved below its 50-day moving average on November 06, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 25 of 33 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for GWRE moved out of overbought territory on October 26, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 27 of the 44 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 61%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 29, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on GWRE as a result. In 47 of 75 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for GWRE turned negative on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 22 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 49%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GWRE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
GWRE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 11 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
The 10-day moving average for GWRE crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Following a +2.91% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GWRE advanced for three days, in 222 of 314 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 169 of 221 cases where GWRE Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 76%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GWRE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 68 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 82 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. GWRE’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 92 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (11.087) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.906). P/E Ratio (97.824) is within average values for comparable stocks, (9.554). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.948) is also within normal values, averaging (2.824). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.069) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (8.496) is also within normal values, averaging (70.383).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
SAP sees MACD Histogram just turned negative
SAP saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on November 06, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 33 of the 48 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 69%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for SAP moved out of overbought territory on November 06, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 34 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 12 of the 34 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 35%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 40 of 66 cases where SAP's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 06, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SAP as a result. In 48 of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SAP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
SAP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a +5.74% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SAP advanced for three days, in 178 of 321 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 141 of 283 cases where SAP Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 50%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 37 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SAP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 81 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.022) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.906). P/E Ratio (34.791) is within average values for comparable stocks, (9.554). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.610) is also within normal values, averaging (2.824). Dividend Yield (0.043) settles around the average of (0.069) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.653) is also within normal values, averaging (70.383).
GWRE | SAP | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 61 | 36 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 92 Overvalued | 81 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 82 | 59 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 68 | 49 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 58 | 42 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 94 | 49 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 37 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SAP's Valuation (81) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as GWRE (92) in the Information Technology Services industry. This means that SAP’s stock grew similarly to GWRE’s over the last 12 months.
SAP's Profit vs Risk Rating (59) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as GWRE (82) in the Information Technology Services industry. This means that SAP’s stock grew similarly to GWRE’s over the last 12 months.
SAP's SMR Rating (49) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as GWRE (68) in the Information Technology Services industry. This means that SAP’s stock grew similarly to GWRE’s over the last 12 months.
SAP's Price Growth Rating (42) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as GWRE (58) in the Information Technology Services industry. This means that SAP’s stock grew similarly to GWRE’s over the last 12 months.
SAP's P/E Growth Rating (49) in the Packaged Software industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GWRE (94) in the Information Technology Services industry. This means that SAP’s stock grew somewhat faster than GWRE’s over the last 12 months.
| GWRE | SAP | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 35% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 61% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 55% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 69% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 61% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 10 days ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 66% | 12 days ago 54% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 45% | 2 days ago 50% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 50% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GWRE’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while SAP’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- GWRE’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- SAP’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GWRE’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SAP’s TA Score has 2 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GWRE’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- SAP’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
GWRE (@Packaged Software) experienced а -1.98% price change this week, while SAP (@Packaged Software) price change was +0.62% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Packaged Software industry was -0.39%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.75%, and the average quarterly price growth was +2.60%.
Reported Earning Dates
GWRE is expected to report earnings on Dec 02, 2026.
SAP is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Packaged Software (-0.39% weekly)Packaged software comprises multiple software programs bundled together and sold as a group. For example, Microsoft Office includes multiple applications such as Excel, Word, and PowerPoint. In some cases, buying a bundled product is cheaper than purchasing each item individually[s20] . Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corp. and Adobe are some major American packaged software makers.
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GWRE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GWRE has been closely correlated with ASAN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if GWRE jumps, then ASAN could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To GWRE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GWRE | 100% | -1.12% | ||
| ASAN - GWRE | 71% Closely correlated | +0.41% | ||
| ADSK - GWRE | 70% Closely correlated | +1.90% | ||
| ADBE - GWRE | 68% Closely correlated | +1.90% | ||
| PCOR - GWRE | 67% Closely correlated | +0.50% | ||
| CRM - GWRE | 67% Closely correlated | +0.12% | ||
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