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GXO vs UPS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? GXO Logistics (GXO) vs. United Parcel Service (UPS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- GXO is a pure-play contract logistics operator with accelerating revenue, a record sales pipeline, and rising adjusted earnings per share (EPS), though its share price has lagged over the past year.
- UPS is a diversified parcel and logistics giant completing a multi-year network reset, with expanding margins, a growing dividend, and a stock that has outperformed the broader market in 2026.
- GXO offers a more concentrated, growth-oriented profile in outsourcing and automation, while UPS offers greater scale, cash generation, and income-oriented stability.
- Both companies operate in logistics, but their growth drivers, margin profiles, and risk exposures differ meaningfully.
- Relative performance and momentum diverge, making the two names useful comparators across growth and value styles.
Introduction
Investors evaluating the transportation and logistics sector often weigh specialized growth plays against diversified blue-chip operators. GXO and UPS sit on opposite ends of that spectrum: GXO Logistics is the world's largest pure-play contract logistics provider, while United Parcel Service is a global package delivery and supply chain leader. This stock comparison examines how the two businesses differ in model, growth drivers, momentum, and market positioning. Growth-focused traders may find GXO's outsourcing and automation story compelling, whereas income- and stability-focused investors may gravitate toward UPS's scale, cash flow, and dividend. The comparison below is designed to clarify the trade-offs between these two names in the current environment.
GXO Overview and Recent Performance
GXO Logistics, Inc. designs and operates outsourced warehousing, distribution, and fulfillment for large blue-chip customers across e-commerce, consumer, aerospace and defense, life sciences, and technology. Recent market activity has reflected a company gaining commercial traction while its share price consolidates. In its latest reported quarter, GXO posted revenue of roughly $3.3 billion, up about 11% year over year, with organic growth near 4%. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) rose more than 20%, and adjusted diluted EPS climbed sharply. Management raised full-year guidance and pointed to a record sales pipeline of approximately $2.7 billion, with new business wins concentrated in higher-margin strategic verticals such as data center infrastructure and defense. Despite this operating momentum, the stock has underperformed over the past year, and some analysts have noted near-term valuation debate even as others, including Barclays, upgraded the name to Overweight in recent months.
UPS Overview and Recent Performance
United Parcel Service is one of the world's largest package delivery and integrated logistics companies, operating a U.S. domestic network, an international package business, and a supply chain solutions segment. Recent market activity has centered on the completion of its "Amazon glide-down," in which UPS deliberately reduced lower-yielding volume from its largest customer while reconfiguring its network. In its latest reported quarter, consolidated revenue rose roughly 8% year over year, and adjusted operating margin expanded, with adjusted diluted EPS climbing double digits. UPS also raised its full-year revenue and earnings outlook. GAAP results included sizable transformation charges tied to severance and workforce reductions, but free cash flow improved markedly and the company continues to return substantial cash through dividends. The stock has gained in 2026, outperforming the S&P 500, though some analysts have questioned whether second-half margin acceleration targets are achievable.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ most in business model and margin structure. GXO is an asset-light, capital-efficient contract logistics provider whose growth depends on winning long-term outsourcing contracts and deploying automation; its revenue base is far smaller, and its margins are thinner in absolute terms, but its growth runway is tied to a large, still-insourced market. UPS, by contrast, owns a vast physical network of aircraft, vehicles, and facilities, generating much larger revenue and substantial free cash flow, but its growth is more cyclical and tied to macroeconomic package volumes.
Growth drivers also diverge. GXO's catalysts include AI infrastructure, defense supply chains, and industrial reshoring, while UPS is focused on pricing discipline, richer customer mix, healthcare logistics, and automation-driven cost savings. On risk, GXO carries integration and customer-concentration considerations, whereas UPS faces tariff and trade-policy exposure, labor costs, and competitive pressure from FedEx and Amazon. Sentiment has favored UPS's improving fundamentals recently, while GXO's stronger operating metrics have yet to be fully reflected in its price. Ultimately, GXO represents a higher-beta, growth-oriented positioning, and UPS a larger, more defensive, income-oriented one.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor UPS in the current environment. UPS has demonstrated a more consistent uptrend, expanding adjusted margins, improving free cash flow, and a completed network reset that removes a major overhang. GXO's fundamentals are improving, but its price momentum has been weaker and its stock has lagged over a one-year horizon, suggesting the market has not yet rewarded its growth story. That said, GXO's record pipeline and guidance raises represent a meaningful catalyst that could shift the comparison if execution continues. The verdict is probabilistic: UPS currently offers greater trend consistency and stability, while GXO offers higher potential upside should its automation and outsourcing thesis translate into sustained earnings growth.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GXO is a Hold and UPS is a Hold.
GXO in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on September 24, 2026
GXO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 29 of 41 cases where GXO's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GXO as a result. In 54 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GXO just turned positive on October 01, 2026. Looking at past instances where GXO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Following a +0.52% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GXO advanced for three days, in 191 of 300 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 41 of 62 cases where GXO's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GXO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
The Aroon Indicator for GXO entered a downward trend on October 05, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 59 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.719) is normal, around the industry mean (3.756). P/E Ratio (39.619) is within average values for comparable stocks, (222.905). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.140) is also within normal values, averaging (5.110). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.013) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.392) is also within normal values, averaging (2.034).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GXO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 84 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. GXO’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock worse than average.
UPS's RSI Oscillator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for UPS moved out of oversold territory on September 25, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 28 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 21 of the 28 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 75%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on UPS as a result. In 73 of 101 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for UPS just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where UPS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Following a +1.29% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UPS advanced for three days, in 198 of 318 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
UPS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UPS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
The Aroon Indicator for UPS entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 5 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.322) is normal, around the industry mean (3.756). P/E Ratio (17.519) is within average values for comparable stocks, (222.905). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.340) is also within normal values, averaging (5.110). UPS's Dividend Yield (0.070) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.013). P/S Ratio (0.935) is also within normal values, averaging (2.034).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. UPS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. UPS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock worse than average.
UPS | ||
|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 14 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 5 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 34 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 58 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 14 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
| GXO | UPS | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 75% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 56% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 72% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 66% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 61% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 50% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 62% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 8 days ago 53% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 73% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 57% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GXO’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while UPS’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- GXO’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- UPS’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GXO’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UPS’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GXO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
- UPS’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
GXO (@Other Transportation) experienced а -0.26% price change this week, while UPS (@Other Transportation) price change was +3.78% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Other Transportation industry was +1.05%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.25%, and the average quarterly price growth was -24.21%.
Reported Earning Dates
GXO is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
UPS is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Other Transportation (+1.05% weekly)Other Transportation includes transportation services like providing airport ground transportation, airport management and equipment, shipping services, as well as businesses that operate bridges, expressways and other public services such as taxis and subways. Grupo Aero-pac, Corporacion America Airports S.A. and Matson, Inc. are some of the major companies operating in this space.
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UPS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UPS has been loosely correlated with XPO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 64% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if UPS jumps, then XPO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To UPS | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPS | 100% | +1.04% | ||
| XPO - UPS | 64% Loosely correlated | +2.18% | ||
| GXO - UPS | 58% Loosely correlated | -1.35% | ||
| FDX - UPS | 50% Loosely correlated | +0.24% | ||
| RLGT - UPS | 36% Loosely correlated | -0.33% | ||
| CHRW - UPS | 31% Poorly correlated | +1.07% | ||
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