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GXO vs UPS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? GXO Logistics (GXO) vs. United Parcel Service (UPS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- GXO Logistics (GXO) reported Q1 2026 revenue of $3.3 billion, up 10.8% year over year with 4.1% organic growth, and raised full-year guidance for adjusted EBITDA and EPS.
- United Parcel Service (UPS) delivered Q1 2026 revenue of $21.2 billion, beating estimates despite a 1.6% year-over-year decline, while reaffirming full-year 2026 guidance amid volume adjustments.
- Recent market activity shows UPS with stronger year-to-date total returns compared to GXO, which has traded relatively flat amid broader sector dynamics.
- GXO operates as a pure-play contract logistics provider focused on warehousing and supply chain outsourcing, while UPS maintains a diversified global package delivery and logistics network.
- Both companies face exposure to e-commerce and industrial demand, with GXO highlighting a record sales pipeline and UPS managing a strategic reduction in lower-margin volumes.
- Relative performance in recent weeks reflects contrasting momentum, with GXO benefiting from contract wins and UPS positioning for margin recovery in the second half of 2026.
Introduction
Investors and traders often compare logistics and delivery stocks like GXO and UPS to assess relative positioning within the industrials sector. GXO Logistics (GXO) specializes in outsourced warehousing and supply chain management, while United Parcel Service (UPS) provides comprehensive package delivery and logistics solutions across global markets. This comparison appeals to those evaluating exposure to e-commerce growth, supply chain efficiency, and economic sensitivity. Market participants may use such analyses to understand differences in business models, recent performance trends, and sector-specific catalysts within the current environment.
GXO Overview and Recent Performance
GXO Logistics (GXO) is the world’s largest pure-play contract logistics provider, offering warehousing, distribution, order fulfillment, e-commerce support, and reverse logistics services. The company operates more than 1,000 facilities across 27 countries, serving major clients in retail, technology, and consumer goods. In recent weeks, GXO stock has shown modest fluctuations around the $52–$54 range, with year-to-date performance remaining relatively flat. Positive sentiment has been supported by the company’s Q1 2026 results, which included revenue of $3.3 billion (up 10.8% year over year) and a record sales pipeline of $2.7 billion. Management raised full-year 2026 guidance for adjusted EBITDA and diluted EPS, citing strong new business wins and organic growth. Recent contract expansions have further reinforced investor focus on the company’s growth trajectory.
UPS Overview and Recent Performance
United Parcel Service (UPS) is a leading global package delivery and logistics company operating in more than 200 countries and territories. It provides time-definite delivery services, freight forwarding, and supply chain solutions, handling an average of over 20 million packages daily. In recent market activity, UPS shares have traded near $114–$115, delivering positive year-to-date total returns in the mid-teens percentage range. The company’s Q1 2026 earnings showed revenue of $21.2 billion, a modest year-over-year decline but ahead of analyst expectations, with operating margin pressures tied to volume adjustments. Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance, emphasizing expectations for margin improvement in the second half amid ongoing efficiency initiatives and a strategic shift away from certain lower-margin volumes.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
GXO Logistics (GXO) and United Parcel Service (UPS) differ substantially in scale and focus. GXO concentrates on contract warehousing and outsourced logistics, providing a pure-play exposure to supply chain optimization with a record pipeline supporting growth. UPS operates a vertically integrated network spanning package delivery, freight, and broader logistics, offering greater diversification but facing near-term margin headwinds from volume rebalancing. Recent momentum favors GXO through guidance raises and contract activity, while UPS demonstrates more established cash flow stability and analyst coverage. Risk factors include economic sensitivity for both, with GXO more tied to warehousing demand and UPS exposed to parcel volumes and fuel costs. Sector exposure overlaps in industrials and e-commerce, though market sentiment has reflected UPS’s scale advantage alongside GXO’s growth-oriented positioning.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings momentum, and relative positioning, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a probabilistic edge to GXO Logistics (GXO). The company’s recent guidance increase, record sales pipeline, and organic growth metrics suggest stronger near-term momentum compared to UPS’s volume adjustment phase, despite the latter’s larger scale and stability. This assessment remains conditional on continued execution and broader market conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GXO is a Hold and UPS is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GXO’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileUPS’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- GXO’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- UPS’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GXO’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UPS’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GXO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- UPS’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
GXO (@Other Transportation) experienced а +2.87% price change this week, while UPS (@Other Transportation) price change was +2.27% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Other Transportation industry was -0.24%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.85%, and the average quarterly price growth was -8.17%.
Reported Earning Dates
GXO is expected to report earnings on Nov 10, 2026.
UPS is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Other Transportation (-0.24% weekly)Other Transportation includes transportation services like providing airport ground transportation, airport management and equipment, shipping services, as well as businesses that operate bridges, expressways and other public services such as taxis and subways. Grupo Aero-pac, Corporacion America Airports S.A. and Matson, Inc. are some of the major companies operating in this space.
| GXO | UPS | GXO / UPS | |
| Capitalization | 5.56B | 89.8B | 6% |
| EBITDA | 810M | 11.6B | 7% |
| Gain YTD | -8.131 | 9.704 | -84% |
| P/E Ratio | 42.80 | 19.62 | 218% |
| Revenue | 13.5B | 88.3B | 15% |
| Total Cash | 794M | 5.8B | 14% |
| Total Debt | 5.96B | 28.7B | 21% |
UPS | ||
|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 58 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 6 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 31 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 56 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 15 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 65 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
| GXO | UPS | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 59% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 70% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 52% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 62% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 49% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 11 days ago 62% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 73% | 3 days ago 54% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 43% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| AVUV | 128.01 | 0.50 | +0.39% |
| Avantis US Small Cap Value ETF | |||
| JMM | 5.83 | 0.02 | +0.29% |
| NUVEEN MULTI-MARKET Income FUND | |||
| JCPI | 47.52 | 0.13 | +0.27% |
| JPMorgan Inflation Managed Bond ETF | |||
| CVSB | 50.76 | 0.07 | +0.14% |
| Calvert Ultra-Short Investment Grade ETF | |||
| RVNL | 24.67 | -0.37 | -1.49% |
| GraniteShares 2x Long RIVN Daily ETF | |||
UPS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UPS has been closely correlated with FDX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 68% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if UPS jumps, then FDX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To UPS | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPS | 100% | +1.57% | ||
| FDX - UPS | 68% Closely correlated | +3.85% | ||
| XPO - UPS | 64% Loosely correlated | +1.02% | ||
| GXO - UPS | 58% Loosely correlated | +0.79% | ||
| RLGT - UPS | 35% Loosely correlated | +1.52% | ||
| FWRD - UPS | 33% Loosely correlated | +3.64% | ||
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