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GXO vs UPS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? GXO Logistics (GXO) vs. United Parcel Service (UPS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- GXO Logistics (GXO) is a pure-play contract logistics operator riding momentum in higher-margin verticals such as aerospace and defense, life sciences, and data-center infrastructure, with a record sales pipeline and an upgraded 2026 profit outlook.
- United Parcel Service (UPS) is completing a strategic "glide down" of low-margin Amazon volume, which has compressed reported earnings in the near term but is expected to support structurally stronger margins as the network reconfiguration finishes.
- UPS generates roughly seven times GXO's quarterly revenue, yet GXO is delivering faster organic growth and a more pronounced improvement in adjusted earnings per share (EPS) from its smaller base.
- Relative performance diverges: UPS is a dividend-paying, large-cap value name with a flat-to-down year-to-date trend, while GXO is a mid-cap growth story trading below its consensus price target after a period of de-rating.
- Both companies are exposed to rising automation, e-commerce, and AI-driven supply-chain demand, but their risk profiles differ sharply by scale, cyclicality, and customer concentration.
- For additional context, explore GXO Major News and GXO Today's Price Move, as well as UPS Major News and UPS Today's Price Move.
- To see how automated systems are positioning across both tickers and thousands of others, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Comparing GXO and UPS offers investors two contrasting ways to gain exposure to the global movement of goods. GXO is a specialized contract logistics provider that designs and operates warehousing and fulfillment for blue-chip clients, while UPS is a vertically integrated parcel-delivery giant with an extensive owned network of aircraft, vehicles, and facilities. This stock comparison is most relevant to investors deciding between a growth-oriented, mid-cap logistics play and a mature, dividend-focused large-cap bellwether. Both names have been repositioning their businesses in response to shifting e-commerce economics and automation, making their relative performance and market positioning a useful lens on the broader logistics sector.
GXO Overview and Recent Performance
GXO Logistics is among the world's largest pure-play contract logistics providers, operating hundreds of facilities globally for enterprise customers across omnichannel retail, aerospace and defense, industrial, life sciences, and technology. Recent market activity has reflected a mix of operational momentum and share-price de-rating. In its first-quarter 2026 results, GXO reported revenue of $3.3 billion, up 10.8% year over year, with organic revenue growth of about 4.1%. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) rose 23% to $200 million, and adjusted diluted EPS climbed 72% to $0.50.
Management raised full-year 2026 guidance for adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS, citing a record $2.7 billion sales pipeline and strength in strategic verticals, including AI cloud infrastructure for hyperscale data-center customers. Analysts have responded with a mix of upgrades and target adjustments; Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to Buy in October 2026, and Barclays moved to Overweight earlier in the year. Despite this, the shares have traded in the high-$40s to low-$50s range in recent weeks, down roughly 10% year to date, leaving the stock below its average analyst price target. Sentiment has been shaped by both the growth story and concerns about competition from large e-commerce platforms.
UPS Overview and Recent Performance
UPS (United Parcel Service) is the world's largest package-delivery company and a widely followed barometer of global economic activity. Recent quarters have been defined by the completion of its planned reduction of lower-yielding Amazon volume. UPS removed roughly 2 million lower-margin packages per day and about $4.5 billion in associated expenses, closing facilities and reducing operational headcount while reconfiguring and automating its U.S. network. In its second-quarter 2026 report, consolidated revenue rose 7.6% to $22.8 billion, and adjusted operating profit increased 12% to $2.1 billion, with adjusted EPS of $1.76 exceeding consensus estimates.
Management raised full-year 2026 guidance to approximately $91.2 billion in revenue and about $7.22 in adjusted EPS, supported by stronger revenue per piece, a richer customer mix, and gains in small-and-medium-business, healthcare, and Digital Access Program volumes. The shares have been choppy in recent weeks: UPS gained on the raised outlook but remains roughly flat year to date and down on a 90-day basis, as investors weigh the structural margin benefits of the reset against still-falling package volumes and fuel-cost pressure. As a large-cap name, UPS also offers a substantial dividend, contrasting with GXO's growth-oriented profile.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page showcases a curated selection of automated trading bots drawn from a much larger universe of AI-powered strategies. Tickeron hosts hundreds of AI trading bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, each with its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance record, and basket of symbols. Rather than listing every available bot, the page highlights only those currently best suited to prevailing market conditions, making it a useful starting point for traders evaluating systematic approaches to names like GXO and UPS. Explore the page to review current selections and their latest statistics.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between these two companies is scale and business model. UPS operates an asset-heavy, vertically integrated network and earns a large portion of revenue from parcel delivery, giving it meaningful fixed-cost leverage but also exposure to fuel prices, labor agreements, and volume cyclicality. GXO runs an asset-light-to-moderate contract logistics model, generating recurring revenue from long-term customer relationships and benefiting from the outsourcing trend, with roughly 70% of the contract logistics market still insourced.
Growth drivers also diverge. GXO's expansion is concentrated in specialized, higher-margin verticals and automation, and its organic growth has outpaced the broader logistics industry. UPS's near-term story is less about volume growth and more about mix: raising revenue per piece, shedding dilutive volume, and extracting operating leverage from a smaller, more automated network. In terms of risk, UPS faces customer-concentration and competitive concerns tied to Amazon's logistics ambitions, while GXO faces execution risk on its turnaround, margin improvement, and competitive overlap with large e-commerce providers.
On market sentiment, UPS trades at a modest forward earnings multiple with a consistent dividend, appealing to value and income investors, whereas GXO trades on growth expectations and currently sits below consensus price targets, appealing to investors seeking a turnaround and re-rating opportunity.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor GXO on a momentum-and-re-rating basis. The company's record pipeline, upgraded guidance, improving adjusted profitability, and a share price trading below consensus targets present a clearer near-term catalyst set than UPS's more gradual margin-recovery narrative. That said, UPS holds a stronger stability and cash-return profile, which could make it more attractive under a defensive or income-oriented framework. The outcome is probabilistic and depends on which factors dominate in the current environment; neither stock is favored unconditionally across all trading styles and timeframes.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GXO is a Hold and UPS is a Buy.
GXO's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GXO turned positive on October 01, 2026. Looking at past instances where GXO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GXO as a result. In 54 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
GXO moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for GXO crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 7 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Following a +4.39% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GXO advanced for three days, in 184 of 294 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 160 of 228 cases where GXO Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 70%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 10 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GXO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
GXO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GXO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 82 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.998) is normal, around the industry mean (2.631). GXO's P/E Ratio (46.044) is considerably higher than the industry average of (7.628). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.140) is also within normal values, averaging (5.110). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.392) is also within normal values, averaging (2.034).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 84 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. GXO’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock worse than average.
UPS in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026
UPS moved above its 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 26 of 36 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on UPS as a result. In 68 of 100 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for UPS just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where UPS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 25 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
The 10-day moving average for UPS crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
Following a +2.22% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UPS advanced for three days, in 193 of 314 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 111 of 207 cases where UPS Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 54%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 16 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for UPS moved below the 200-day moving average on September 30, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UPS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
UPS broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 27, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. UPS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 67 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.164) is normal, around the industry mean (2.631). P/E Ratio (20.292) is within average values for comparable stocks, (7.628). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.340) is also within normal values, averaging (5.110). UPS has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.060) as compared to the industry average of (0.019). P/S Ratio (0.935) is also within normal values, averaging (2.034).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. UPS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock worse than average.
UPS | ||
|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 38 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 67 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 34 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 23 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 14 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
| GXO | UPS | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 58% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 68% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 57% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 61% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 60% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 61% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 22 days ago 72% | 10 days ago 53% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 54% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 54% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GXO’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while UPS’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- GXO’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- UPS’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GXO’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UPS’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GXO’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- UPS’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
GXO (@Other Transportation) experienced а +3.98% price change this week, while UPS (@Other Transportation) price change was +2.90% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Other Transportation industry was -0.39%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -10.13%, and the average quarterly price growth was -29.69%.
Reported Earning Dates
GXO is expected to report earnings on Feb 16, 2027.
UPS is expected to report earnings on Feb 02, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Other Transportation (-0.39% weekly)Other Transportation includes transportation services like providing airport ground transportation, airport management and equipment, shipping services, as well as businesses that operate bridges, expressways and other public services such as taxis and subways. Grupo Aero-pac, Corporacion America Airports S.A. and Matson, Inc. are some of the major companies operating in this space.
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GXO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GXO has been closely correlated with XPO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if GXO jumps, then XPO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To GXO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GXO | 100% | -0.17% | ||
| XPO - GXO | 71% Closely correlated | -0.30% | ||
| UPS - GXO | 57% Loosely correlated | -0.49% | ||
| FDX - GXO | 48% Loosely correlated | -0.07% | ||
| JBHT - GXO | 41% Loosely correlated | +0.38% | ||
| RLGT - GXO | 39% Loosely correlated | +0.53% | ||
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UPS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UPS has been loosely correlated with XPO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 64% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if UPS jumps, then XPO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To UPS | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPS | 100% | -0.49% | ||
| XPO - UPS | 64% Loosely correlated | -0.30% | ||
| GXO - UPS | 59% Loosely correlated | -0.17% | ||
| FDX - UPS | 50% Loosely correlated | -0.07% | ||
| RLGT - UPS | 38% Loosely correlated | +0.53% | ||
| CHRW - UPS | 31% Poorly correlated | +3.73% | ||
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| 1 Day | |||
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