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GXO vs UPS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? GXO Logistics (GXO) vs. United Parcel Service (UPS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- GXO has outperformed UPS year-to-date with a return of approximately 11% compared to UPS's 1%, reflecting stronger momentum in recent market activity.
- GXO's high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 168 signals growth expectations, while UPS's P/E of 16 indicates a more value-oriented profile.
- Both stocks faced downward pressure in recent weeks amid competition from Amazon's expanded supply chain services.
- Analyst price targets suggest greater upside potential for GXO at over 50% from current levels versus about 17% for UPS.
- GXO, as a contract logistics specialist, offers higher growth prospects, while UPS provides stability as a logistics giant with diversified operations.
- Recent developments highlight GXO's automation initiatives contrasting UPS's focus on cost efficiencies.
Introduction
GXO Logistics and United Parcel Service (UPS) operate in the competitive logistics sector, where efficient supply chain management drives performance. GXO focuses on contract logistics for third-party clients, while UPS dominates package delivery and broader supply chain solutions. This comparison is relevant for traders seeking momentum plays and investors eyeing relative performance in a market sensitive to e-commerce trends and competitive disruptions. By examining recent price behavior, financial metrics, and sector dynamics, readers can assess positioning amid evolving logistics demands.
GXO Overview and Recent Performance
GXO Logistics is a leading pure-play contract logistics provider, offering warehousing, distribution, and automation solutions to blue-chip clients across e-commerce, consumer goods, and industrials. In recent market activity, GXO shares have traded in a 52-week range of $36.75 to $66.85, with a market capitalization around $5.4 billion. Year-to-date gains stand at about 11%, outpacing broader indices, driven by expansions like Europe's first autoload system for Grupa Żywiec and a U.S. motorsports partnership. However, sentiment shifted negatively in recent weeks due to competitive pressures from Amazon's supply chain services, leading to price declines. Earnings per share (EPS) trailing twelve months (TTM) is $0.28, with analysts maintaining a bullish outlook and an average target of $71.56.
UPS Overview and Recent Performance
United Parcel Service (UPS) is a global leader in package delivery, supply chain management, and freight forwarding, serving diverse sectors including retail and healthcare. Shares have fluctuated within a 52-week range of $82 to $122.41, supported by a substantial market capitalization of approximately $82 billion. Recent performance shows modest year-to-date returns of 1%, lagging peers amid softer volumes, though the company reaffirmed its 2026 revenue target of $89.7 billion and advanced cost-saving initiatives. Like GXO, UPS experienced downward momentum in recent weeks from Amazon's logistics expansion announcements. TTM EPS is $6.19, with a consensus analyst target of $113.15 signaling potential recovery.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
GXO and UPS differ in business models: GXO's asset-light contract logistics emphasizes outsourcing growth, while UPS integrates end-to-end delivery with owned networks for scale. Growth drivers for GXO include automation and e-fulfillment, contrasting UPS's reliance on volume recovery and cost discipline. Recent momentum favors GXO with superior one-year returns, but UPS offers lower volatility. Risk factors involve competition for both, with GXO exposed to client concentration and UPS to labor and fuel costs. Market sentiment reflects caution on sector headwinds, yet analysts see stronger relative positioning for GXO.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI analysis leans toward GXO in the current environment, based on superior trend consistency, higher year-to-date momentum, and greater analyst-implied upside potential. While UPS provides stability and a dividend yield, GXO's growth catalysts in automation position it favorably amid logistics evolution, though both warrant monitoring for competitive risks.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GXO is a Hold and UPS is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GXO’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileUPS’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- GXO’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- UPS’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GXO’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UPS’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GXO’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 6 bearish.
- UPS’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
GXO (@Other Transportation) experienced а -6.65% price change this week, while UPS (@Other Transportation) price change was -1.84% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Other Transportation industry was -1.91%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.46%, and the average quarterly price growth was +5.69%.
Reported Earning Dates
GXO is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
UPS is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Other Transportation (-1.91% weekly)Other Transportation includes transportation services like providing airport ground transportation, airport management and equipment, shipping services, as well as businesses that operate bridges, expressways and other public services such as taxis and subways. Grupo Aero-pac, Corporacion America Airports S.A. and Matson, Inc. are some of the major companies operating in this space.
| GXO | UPS | GXO / UPS | |
| Capitalization | 5.54B | 84.1B | 7% |
| EBITDA | 810M | 11.6B | 7% |
| Gain YTD | -8.473 | 1.129 | -751% |
| P/E Ratio | 43.02 | 16.01 | 269% |
| Revenue | 13.5B | 88.3B | 15% |
| Total Cash | 794M | 5.8B | 14% |
| Total Debt | 5.96B | 28.7B | 21% |
UPS | ||
|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 10 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 29 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 30 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 38 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
| GXO | UPS | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 61% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 57% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 54% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 51% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 50% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 67% | 9 days ago 60% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 73% | 5 days ago 53% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 47% |
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GXO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GXO has been closely correlated with XPO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if GXO jumps, then XPO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To GXO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GXO | 100% | -3.49% | ||
| XPO - GXO | 71% Closely correlated | -0.64% | ||
| FDX - GXO | 61% Loosely correlated | -1.11% | ||
| UPS - GXO | 55% Loosely correlated | +0.52% | ||
| FWRD - GXO | 47% Loosely correlated | -6.91% | ||
| JBHT - GXO | 46% Loosely correlated | +2.93% | ||
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UPS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UPS has been closely correlated with FDX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 70% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if UPS jumps, then FDX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To UPS | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPS | 100% | +0.52% | ||
| FDX - UPS | 70% Closely correlated | -1.11% | ||
| XPO - UPS | 64% Loosely correlated | -0.64% | ||
| GXO - UPS | 55% Loosely correlated | -3.49% | ||
| JBHT - UPS | 49% Loosely correlated | +2.93% | ||
| LSTR - UPS | 46% Loosely correlated | +4.73% | ||
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