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UPS vs XPO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? United Parcel Service (UPS) vs. XPO (XPO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- United Parcel Service (UPS) operates a global package delivery network with significant exposure to consumer and business shipping volumes, while XPO focuses on less-than-truckload (LTL) freight and supply chain services in North America.
- In recent market activity, XPO has demonstrated stronger year-to-date momentum compared to UPS, reflecting differences in business cyclicality and operational leverage.
- Both companies face upcoming quarterly earnings reports that could influence short-term sentiment, with UPS scheduled to report first and XPO shortly thereafter.
- UPS offers a dividend yield that appeals to income-oriented investors, whereas XPO emphasizes growth through volume recovery and margin expansion in the freight sector.
- Sector exposure differs notably: UPS maintains broader international logistics reach, while XPO benefits from domestic industrial and manufacturing trends.
- Relative performance in recent weeks highlights contrasting risk profiles, with XPO showing higher volatility tied to freight cycles and UPS reflecting steadier but more mature operations.
Introduction
United Parcel Service (UPS) and XPO represent distinct segments within the transportation and logistics industry, making their comparison relevant for investors seeking exposure to supply chain dynamics. Package delivery giants like UPS provide stability through diversified global operations, while specialized freight providers such as XPO offer potential for outsized returns during economic recoveries. Traders and portfolio managers evaluating relative performance, market positioning, and sector-specific catalysts may find this analysis useful for assessing allocation decisions between mature dividend payers and growth-oriented logistics names. The comparison focuses on observable business models, recent price behavior, and positioning ahead of earnings season.
UPS Overview and Recent Performance
United Parcel Service (UPS) is a leading provider of package delivery and supply chain management services worldwide. In recent market activity, the stock has shown mixed price behavior amid broader economic uncertainty and shifting shipping demand. Performance has been influenced by ongoing efficiency initiatives, including network optimization and automation efforts, which management has highlighted in communications. Sentiment in recent weeks has reflected anticipation around second-quarter results, with investors monitoring volume trends and margin stability. Broader time references indicate the shares have traded within a range following earlier declines from multi-year highs, supported by a consistent dividend that attracts income-focused participants. Recent developments center on cost management and positioning for potential volume recovery in the second half of the year.
XPO Overview and Recent Performance
XPO operates primarily in the less-than-truckload (LTL) freight market and provides supply chain solutions, with a focus on North American operations. In recent market activity, the stock has exhibited stronger upward momentum, benefiting from improving freight volumes and pricing power in the LTL segment. Performance has been supported by operational improvements and volume growth reported in prior periods, contributing to positive analyst attention. Sentiment in recent weeks reflects continued optimism around margin expansion targets and industrial demand trends. Broader time references show significant year-to-date appreciation, distinguishing XPO from more mature peers amid recovery in domestic freight markets. Recent developments include ongoing share repurchase activity and preparations for upcoming quarterly reporting that could provide further visibility into 2026 progress.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
United Parcel Service (UPS) and XPO differ substantially in business model, with UPS maintaining a vast global package network serving both consumers and enterprises, while XPO concentrates on domestic LTL freight and targeted logistics services. Growth drivers for UPS center on e-commerce stability and cost discipline, contrasting with XPO’s emphasis on freight volume recovery and pricing discipline in industrial sectors. Recent momentum has favored XPO, which has posted stronger relative gains amid improving LTL trends, whereas UPS has experienced more tempered movement tied to mature operations and dividend focus. Risk factors include UPS’s exposure to international trade fluctuations and XPO’s sensitivity to domestic economic cycles and fuel costs. Sector exposure positions UPS as a broader logistics play and XPO as a more concentrated North American freight beneficiary. Market sentiment currently reflects greater enthusiasm for XPO’s growth trajectory versus UPS’s defensive characteristics in uncertain environments.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency and relative positioning in recent market activity, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a probabilistic edge to XPO. Stronger volume trends, margin progress, and analyst support contribute to more consistent momentum signals compared to UPS, which faces nearer-term earnings uncertainty and slower recent appreciation. The assessment remains probabilistic, acknowledging that upcoming quarterly results for both companies could alter relative dynamics depending on reported outcomes and forward guidance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is UPS is a StrongBuy and XPO is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
UPS’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileXPO’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- UPS’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- XPO’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
UPS’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while XPO’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- UPS’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- XPO’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
UPS (@Other Transportation) experienced а +2.27% price change this week, while XPO (@Trucking) price change was +7.50% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Other Transportation industry was -0.17%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.13%, and the average quarterly price growth was -8.17%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Trucking industry was -1.30%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.92%, and the average quarterly price growth was +23.11%.
Reported Earning Dates
UPS is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
XPO is expected to report earnings on Nov 02, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Other Transportation (-0.17% weekly)Other Transportation includes transportation services like providing airport ground transportation, airport management and equipment, shipping services, as well as businesses that operate bridges, expressways and other public services such as taxis and subways. Grupo Aero-pac, Corporacion America Airports S.A. and Matson, Inc. are some of the major companies operating in this space.
@Trucking (-1.30% weekly)The trucking industry provides road transportation delivery and logistical services, including moving large quantities of raw materials, works in process, and finished goods —often from manufacturing plants to retail distribution centers. Trucks are also used in the construction industry, as they transport large amounts of rocks, concrete, and other building materials used in construction. Trucks in the U.S. are responsible for the majority of freight movement over land, and therefore play an important role in the manufacturing, transportation, and warehousing industries. The business could be affected by economic cycles, since it is closely linked with manufacturing, retail and construction. Some of the major trucking companies in the U.S. are Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc., J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc., and XPO Logistics, Inc.
| UPS | XPO | UPS / XPO | |
| Capitalization | 89.8B | 24.7B | 364% |
| EBITDA | 11.6B | 1.29B | 901% |
| Gain YTD | 9.704 | 55.301 | 18% |
| P/E Ratio | 19.62 | 62.26 | 32% |
| Revenue | 88.3B | 8.57B | 1,030% |
| Total Cash | 5.8B | 298M | 1,947% |
| Total Debt | 28.7B | 3.99B | 720% |
UPS | XPO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 58 | 63 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 6 Undervalued | 85 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 17 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 31 | 44 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 56 | 46 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 15 | 19 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 65 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
UPS's Valuation (6) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is significantly better than the same rating for XPO (85) in the Trucking industry. This means that UPS’s stock grew significantly faster than XPO’s over the last 12 months.
XPO's Profit vs Risk Rating (17) in the Trucking industry is significantly better than the same rating for UPS (100) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry. This means that XPO’s stock grew significantly faster than UPS’s over the last 12 months.
UPS's SMR Rating (31) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as XPO (44) in the Trucking industry. This means that UPS’s stock grew similarly to XPO’s over the last 12 months.
XPO's Price Growth Rating (46) in the Trucking industry is in the same range as UPS (56) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry. This means that XPO’s stock grew similarly to UPS’s over the last 12 months.
UPS's P/E Growth Rating (15) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as XPO (19) in the Trucking industry. This means that UPS’s stock grew similarly to XPO’s over the last 12 months.
| UPS | XPO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 71% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 79% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 80% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 76% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 73% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 54% | 9 days ago 66% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 72% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 43% | 2 days ago 83% |
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UPS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UPS has been closely correlated with FDX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 68% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if UPS jumps, then FDX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To UPS | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPS | 100% | +1.57% | ||
| FDX - UPS | 68% Closely correlated | +3.85% | ||
| XPO - UPS | 64% Loosely correlated | +1.02% | ||
| GXO - UPS | 58% Loosely correlated | +0.79% | ||
| RLGT - UPS | 35% Loosely correlated | +1.52% | ||
| FWRD - UPS | 33% Loosely correlated | +3.64% | ||
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XPO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, XPO has been closely correlated with FWRD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 75% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if XPO jumps, then FWRD could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To XPO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XPO | 100% | +1.02% | ||
| FWRD - XPO | 75% Closely correlated | +3.64% | ||
| ODFL - XPO | 72% Closely correlated | +1.50% | ||
| GXO - XPO | 71% Closely correlated | +0.79% | ||
| HUBG - XPO | 70% Closely correlated | +3.58% | ||
| TFII - XPO | 68% Closely correlated | +0.82% | ||
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