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UPS vs XPO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? United Parcel Service (UPS) vs. XPO, Inc. (XPO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- XPO has delivered superior recent momentum, with year-to-date gains over 64% compared to UPS's roughly 9%.
- UPS trades at a more attractive trailing P/E ratio (price-to-earnings ratio) of 16.3 versus XPO's 84.7, reflecting greater earnings stability.
- XPO benefits from strong quarterly revenue growth of 4.6% year-over-year in North American LTL (less-than-truckload) shipping, outpacing UPS's recent contraction.
- UPS offers a robust dividend yield of about 6.1%, appealing to income-focused investors, while XPO pays no dividend.
- Both stocks have risen in recent weeks, with XPO up around 18% over the past month versus UPS's 12% gain, amid logistics sector recovery.
- XPO's higher beta of 1.72 indicates greater volatility than UPS's 1.10, balancing growth potential with risk.
Introduction
United Parcel Service (UPS) and XPO, Inc. (XPO) operate in the competitive transportation and logistics sector, serving e-commerce, freight, and supply chain needs. This stock comparison analyzes their recent performance, financial metrics, and market positioning to aid traders seeking momentum plays and investors prioritizing stability or growth. With shifting freight volumes and economic signals influencing sentiment, understanding relative strengths helps in portfolio allocation amid broader industrials exposure.
UPS Overview and Recent Performance
United Parcel Service (UPS), the world's largest package delivery company, handles global small-package shipping alongside supply chain services. In recent market activity, UPS shares have climbed about 12% over the past month and 9% year-to-date, trading near $107 with a market cap of approximately $91 billion. Sentiment has been supported by strategic expansions like Happy Returns network growth and RFID (radio-frequency identification) technology adoption, offsetting fuel cost pressures via temporary surge fees. Fourth-quarter 2025 results showed adjusted operating profit of $2.9 billion on $24.5 billion revenue, though quarterly growth remains challenged by volume shifts. High debt/equity at 176% underscores leverage risks, balanced by strong free cash flow of $5.2 billion trailing twelve months (TTM).
XPO Overview and Recent Performance
XPO, Inc. (XPO) specializes in North American LTL freight transportation following spin-offs of its logistics arms. Shares have surged around 18% in recent weeks and over 64% year-to-date, reaching about $224 with a $26 billion market cap. Strong Q4 2025 revenue of $2.01 billion, up from $1.92 billion prior year, drove performance amid margin improvements and yield gains in LTL operations. Analyst upgrades and expectations for earnings growth have bolstered sentiment, despite elevated P/E at 85 TTM. Debt/equity stands at 224%, with quarterly revenue growth of 4.6% signaling operational momentum in a recovering freight market.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
UPS and XPO differ in scale and focus: UPS dominates parcel delivery with $89 billion TTM revenue, while XPO's $8 billion emphasizes LTL freight growth drivers like tonnage yields. Recent momentum favors XPO's 116% one-year return over UPS's 16%, reflecting LTL recovery versus parcel softness. Risks include XPO's volatility (beta 1.72) and high valuation versus UPS's stability and dividend appeal. Sector exposure ties both to industrials, but XPO's ROE (18%) trails UPS's 34%, trading off growth for proven profitability.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI models currently lean toward XPO with higher probability for near-term upside, driven by consistent trend strength, revenue acceleration, and positive analyst momentum in LTL positioning. UPS suits conservative strategies via valuation and yield, but lags in relative growth catalysts.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is UPS is a Buy and XPO is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
UPS’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileXPO’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- UPS’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- XPO’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
UPS’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while XPO’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- UPS’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- XPO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
UPS (@Other Transportation) experienced а -6.31% price change this week, while XPO (@Trucking) price change was -5.01% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Other Transportation industry was +0.66%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.80%, and the average quarterly price growth was +5.60%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Trucking industry was +2.91%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.27%, and the average quarterly price growth was +49.56%.
Reported Earning Dates
UPS is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
XPO is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Other Transportation (+0.66% weekly)Other Transportation includes transportation services like providing airport ground transportation, airport management and equipment, shipping services, as well as businesses that operate bridges, expressways and other public services such as taxis and subways. Grupo Aero-pac, Corporacion America Airports S.A. and Matson, Inc. are some of the major companies operating in this space.
@Trucking (+2.91% weekly)The trucking industry provides road transportation delivery and logistical services, including moving large quantities of raw materials, works in process, and finished goods —often from manufacturing plants to retail distribution centers. Trucks are also used in the construction industry, as they transport large amounts of rocks, concrete, and other building materials used in construction. Trucks in the U.S. are responsible for the majority of freight movement over land, and therefore play an important role in the manufacturing, transportation, and warehousing industries. The business could be affected by economic cycles, since it is closely linked with manufacturing, retail and construction. Some of the major trucking companies in the U.S. are Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc., J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc., and XPO Logistics, Inc.
| UPS | XPO | UPS / XPO | |
| Capitalization | 85.7B | 24B | 357% |
| EBITDA | 11.6B | 1.22B | 955% |
| Gain YTD | 3.020 | 50.467 | 6% |
| P/E Ratio | 16.31 | 70.27 | 23% |
| Revenue | 88.3B | 8.3B | 1,064% |
| Total Cash | 5.8B | 237M | 2,448% |
| Total Debt | 28.7B | 4.03B | 712% |
UPS | XPO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 28 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 35 Fair valued | 90 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 19 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 30 | 46 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 43 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 37 | 10 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
UPS's Valuation (35) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for XPO (90) in the Trucking industry. This means that UPS’s stock grew somewhat faster than XPO’s over the last 12 months.
XPO's Profit vs Risk Rating (19) in the Trucking industry is significantly better than the same rating for UPS (100) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry. This means that XPO’s stock grew significantly faster than UPS’s over the last 12 months.
UPS's SMR Rating (30) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as XPO (46) in the Trucking industry. This means that UPS’s stock grew similarly to XPO’s over the last 12 months.
XPO's Price Growth Rating (43) in the Trucking industry is in the same range as UPS (57) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry. This means that XPO’s stock grew similarly to UPS’s over the last 12 months.
XPO's P/E Growth Rating (10) in the Trucking industry is in the same range as UPS (37) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry. This means that XPO’s stock grew similarly to UPS’s over the last 12 months.
| UPS | XPO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 57% | 4 days ago 70% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 61% | 4 days ago 80% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 58% | 4 days ago 69% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 59% | 4 days ago 72% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 51% | 4 days ago 71% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 56% | 4 days ago 74% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 60% | 6 days ago 72% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 53% | 4 days ago 65% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 52% | 4 days ago 87% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 51% | 4 days ago 84% |
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UPS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UPS has been closely correlated with FDX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 70% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if UPS jumps, then FDX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To UPS | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPS | 100% | +0.68% | ||
| FDX - UPS | 70% Closely correlated | +0.70% | ||
| XPO - UPS | 64% Loosely correlated | -1.15% | ||
| GXO - UPS | 55% Loosely correlated | -0.52% | ||
| JBHT - UPS | 51% Loosely correlated | +1.51% | ||
| FWRD - UPS | 49% Loosely correlated | -43.05% | ||
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