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UPS vs XPO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? United Parcel Service (UPS) vs. XPO (XPO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- UPS is the world's largest parcel delivery company, now pivoting away from low-margin Amazon volume toward higher-yield healthcare, small-business, and premium shipments.
- XPO is a leading asset-based less-than-truckload (LTL) freight carrier that has posted record margins and accelerating volume growth even in a soft freight environment.
- UPS has delivered stronger pricing (revenue per piece) but still faces heavy one-time restructuring costs, while XPO is compounding operating-ratio improvement quarter after quarter.
- The two companies occupy different parts of the transportation value chain: UPS focuses on parcel/express delivery, while XPO focuses on consolidated LTL freight and European transportation.
- XPO trades at a notably higher earnings multiple than UPS, reflecting market expectations for stronger near-term margin expansion.
- For deeper coverage of each company's headlines and intraday moves, explore UPS Major News and UPS Today's Price Move, as well as XPO Major News and XPO Today's Price Move.
- To see how automated strategies are currently positioned across these and thousands of other tickers, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Investors weighing transportation and logistics names often land on UPS and XPO as two of the sector's most closely followed stories, despite their different business models. United Parcel Service is a parcel and express-delivery giant with global scale and a sizable dividend, while XPO, Inc. is a freight-transportation specialist built around its North American less-than-truckload network. This stock comparison is most relevant for investors and traders seeking to understand how a defensive, cash-generative delivery leader stacks up against a higher-growth freight carrier executing a multiyear margin-expansion plan. Comparing their relative performance, market positioning, and growth drivers offers a useful lens on the broader transportation cycle.
UPS Overview and Recent Performance
United Parcel Service (UPS) is the world's largest package-delivery company, headquartered in Atlanta and widely viewed as a barometer of global economic activity. In recent quarters, management has executed a deliberate strategic reset: it completed an 18-month "glide down" of lower-margin Amazon volume, removing roughly two million lower-quality packages per day and about $4.5 billion in associated expense. The company also launched a Driver Choice Program that trimmed its workforce, incurring substantial severance charges along the way.
Recent market activity reflects this transition. UPS returned to consolidated revenue and operating-profit growth in its most recent quarter, with revenue up roughly 7.6% year over year and adjusted earnings per share of $1.76, ahead of consensus estimates. Management raised its full-year outlook to approximately $91.2 billion in revenue and about $7.22 in adjusted earnings per share. Revenue per piece rose about 9.3% as the company shifted toward small and medium-sized businesses, healthcare, and premium services. Still, the stock's 90-day performance has been softer, and the reported operating margin remains below prior-year levels once one-time transformation charges are included. Analysts maintain a broadly constructive view, with an average price target modestly above the recent share price.
XPO Overview and Recent Performance
XPO, Inc. (XPO) is a leader in asset-based less-than-truckload (LTL) freight transportation in North America, complemented by a European transportation segment. LTL carriers consolidate smaller shipments from multiple customers onto single trucks, and XPO has positioned itself around service quality, proprietary technology, and network density. Headquartered in Greenwich, Connecticut, the company moves billions of pounds of freight annually across hundreds of service centers.
Recent performance has been marked by record profitability. In its most recent quarter, XPO grew total revenue about 13% year over year and adjusted earnings per share by more than 50%, while its LTL adjusted operating ratio (operating expenses as a percentage of revenue, where lower is better) improved to a company-record 79.9%. Yield excluding fuel rose 4.4%, and shipments per day accelerated through the quarter, with management citing early signs of improving industrial demand. The company has also expanded capacity, added trailers, and rolled out AI-driven loading and route-optimization tools. This momentum has supported a substantial share-price recovery from its 52-week low, though the stock trades at a premium valuation to many peers.
Trending AI Robots
For traders who prefer a systematic, data-driven approach, Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page offers a curated view of the platform's most compelling automated strategies. Tickeron hosts hundreds of AI trading bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, each with its own trading style, timeframe, performance history, and statistical profile. Rather than presenting every bot at once, the Trending AI Robots section highlights only those best suited to current market conditions, helping users cut through the noise and focus on strategies with demonstrated momentum. Whether you favor short-term swing signals or longer-horizon trend-following approaches, exploring the Trending AI Robots page is a practical way to see how algorithmic models are navigating names like UPS and XPO right now.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two companies is business model and cyclical exposure. UPS is a parcel and express-delivery network with diversified, global revenue and a meaningful dividend; its growth story now hinges on price discipline, mix improvement, and cost efficiency rather than volume expansion. XPO, by contrast, is a more focused freight carrier whose earnings are tightly linked to industrial freight demand and its ability to widen the gap between pricing and cost.
On recent momentum, XPO has shown stronger, more consistent operating leverage, delivering record operating-ratio improvement while volumes recover. UPS has demonstrated pricing power but is still absorbing restructuring charges and a multiyear decline in lower-margin volume. Risk profiles differ too: UPS faces competitive pressure from Amazon's logistics ambitions and fuel/labor cost inflation, while XPO carries valuation risk given its elevated earnings multiple and sensitivity to any softening in freight demand. In sector terms, both are transportation names, but UPS skews toward consumer and parcel activity, whereas XPO tracks industrial freight and LTL pricing.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI framework would likely lean toward XPO in the current environment, favoring its more consistent trend, accelerating volume growth, and compounding margin improvement. XPO has demonstrated stable operational catalysts—record operating ratio, rising yield, and measurable technology-driven productivity—that align with trend-consistency signals. That said, UPS retains a lower valuation, a defensible dividend, and a cleaner second-half setup as restructuring costs fade. A probabilistic view suggests XPO holds the near-term momentum edge, while UPS offers a steadier, more income-oriented profile. The relative call depends heavily on whether the emerging freight recovery continues and on each stock's ability to sustain its current trajectory.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is UPS is a Buy and XPO is a Buy.
UPS in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026
UPS moved above its 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 26 of 36 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on UPS as a result. In 60 of 99 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for UPS just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where UPS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
The 10-day moving average for UPS crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Following a +2.22% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UPS advanced for three days, in 193 of 314 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 111 of 207 cases where UPS Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 54%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for UPS moved out of overbought territory on November 06, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 31 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 19 of the 31 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 61%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 19 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UPS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 52%.
UPS broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. UPS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 67 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.115) is normal, around the industry mean (2.483). P/E Ratio (20.130) is within average values for comparable stocks, (7.339). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.340) is also within normal values, averaging (5.110). UPS has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.061) as compared to the industry average of (0.020). P/S Ratio (0.935) is also within normal values, averaging (2.034).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. UPS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 89, placing this stock worse than average.
XPO in upward trend: price may jump up because it broke its lower Bollinger Band on November 05, 2026
XPO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 25 of 27 cases where XPO's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The 10-day moving average for XPO crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 14 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Following a +4.76% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XPO advanced for three days, in 218 of 291 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 197 of 218 cases where XPO Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 90%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 51 of 67 cases where XPO's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 04, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on XPO as a result. In 59 of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for XPO turned negative on November 05, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 33 of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 66%.
XPO moved below its 50-day moving average on November 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XPO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. XPO’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 90 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: XPO's P/B Ratio (10.560) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (2.749). P/E Ratio (51.439) is within average values for comparable stocks, (43.505). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.707) is also within normal values, averaging (12.936). XPO has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.010). P/S Ratio (2.421) is also within normal values, averaging (2.068).
UPS | XPO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 67 Overvalued | 90 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 18 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 34 | 45 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 24 | 57 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 13 | 43 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
UPS's Valuation (67) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as XPO (90) in the Trucking industry. This means that UPS’s stock grew similarly to XPO’s over the last 12 months.
XPO's Profit vs Risk Rating (18) in the Trucking industry is significantly better than the same rating for UPS (100) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry. This means that XPO’s stock grew significantly faster than UPS’s over the last 12 months.
UPS's SMR Rating (34) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as XPO (45) in the Trucking industry. This means that UPS’s stock grew similarly to XPO’s over the last 12 months.
UPS's Price Growth Rating (24) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for XPO (57) in the Trucking industry. This means that UPS’s stock grew somewhat faster than XPO’s over the last 12 months.
UPS's P/E Growth Rating (13) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as XPO (43) in the Trucking industry. This means that UPS’s stock grew similarly to XPO’s over the last 12 months.
| UPS | XPO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 61% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 56% | 4 days ago 76% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 61% | 4 days ago 71% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 59% | 4 days ago 66% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 61% | 4 days ago 71% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 60% | 4 days ago 73% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 61% | 8 days ago 75% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 52% | 5 days ago 66% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 72% | 4 days ago 90% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 54% | 4 days ago 90% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
UPS’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while XPO’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- UPS’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- XPO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
UPS’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while XPO’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- UPS’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- XPO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
UPS (@Other Transportation) experienced а +0.05% price change this week, while XPO (@Trucking) price change was -6.66% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Other Transportation industry was -3.29%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -11.82%, and the average quarterly price growth was -29.17%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Trucking industry was +0.73%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.00%, and the average quarterly price growth was +14.71%.
Reported Earning Dates
UPS is expected to report earnings on Feb 02, 2027.
XPO is expected to report earnings on Feb 10, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Other Transportation (-3.29% weekly)Other Transportation includes transportation services like providing airport ground transportation, airport management and equipment, shipping services, as well as businesses that operate bridges, expressways and other public services such as taxis and subways. Grupo Aero-pac, Corporacion America Airports S.A. and Matson, Inc. are some of the major companies operating in this space.
@Trucking (+0.73% weekly)The trucking industry provides road transportation delivery and logistical services, including moving large quantities of raw materials, works in process, and finished goods —often from manufacturing plants to retail distribution centers. Trucks are also used in the construction industry, as they transport large amounts of rocks, concrete, and other building materials used in construction. Trucks in the U.S. are responsible for the majority of freight movement over land, and therefore play an important role in the manufacturing, transportation, and warehousing industries. The business could be affected by economic cycles, since it is closely linked with manufacturing, retail and construction. Some of the major trucking companies in the U.S. are Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc., J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc., and XPO Logistics, Inc.
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UPS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UPS has been loosely correlated with XPO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 64% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if UPS jumps, then XPO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To UPS | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPS | 100% | -2.47% | ||
| XPO - UPS | 64% Loosely correlated | +0.27% | ||
| GXO - UPS | 61% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
| FDX - UPS | 50% Loosely correlated | -2.73% | ||
| RLGT - UPS | 39% Loosely correlated | -1.55% | ||
| FWRD - UPS | 31% Poorly correlated | -1.71% | ||
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XPO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, XPO has been closely correlated with FWRD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 75% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if XPO jumps, then FWRD could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To XPO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XPO | 100% | +0.27% | ||
| FWRD - XPO | 75% Closely correlated | -1.71% | ||
| GXO - XPO | 71% Closely correlated | N/A | ||
| HUBG - XPO | 70% Closely correlated | -3.43% | ||
| SNDR - XPO | 69% Closely correlated | -1.52% | ||
| JBHT - XPO | 68% Closely correlated | -0.45% | ||
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