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UPS vs XPO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? United Parcel Service (UPS) vs. XPO (XPO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- UPS is a global parcel delivery and logistics giant with $88.7 billion in full-year 2025 revenue, currently navigating a significant strategic transformation that includes workforce reductions and a deliberate decoupling from Amazon business.
- XPO is a focused leader in North American less-than-truckload (LTL) freight transportation, reporting Q4 2025 revenue of $2.01 billion and delivering its twelfth consecutive quarter of sequential growth in revenue per shipment.
- UPS is reshaping its cost structure through aggressive efficiency measures — cutting approximately 48,000 positions since last year — while returning substantial capital to shareholders through a quarterly dividend yielding approximately 6.1%.
- XPO has demonstrated consistent margin expansion in its core North American LTL segment, with an adjusted operating ratio improvement of 180 basis points year-over-year, driven by AI-powered productivity initiatives and pricing discipline.
- From a market positioning standpoint, UPS offers stability and income, while XPO presents a growth-oriented value proposition within the freight transportation sector, with significant operating leverage potential in a freight recovery scenario.
Introduction
Transportation and logistics stocks sit at the intersection of global trade, e-commerce trends, and industrial activity — making them bellwethers for broader economic health. This comparison examines UPS (United Parcel Service) and XPO (XPO, Inc.), two companies that occupy distinct but overlapping niches within the logistics ecosystem. UPS is a diversified global parcel delivery and supply chain powerhouse, while XPO has sharpened its focus on asset-based less-than-truckload (LTL) freight transportation in North America, complemented by a growing European footprint. For investors weighing income-oriented stability against operational turnaround and growth potential, this head-to-head comparison offers a data-driven look at two compelling but fundamentally different opportunities in the transportation sector.
UPS Overview and Recent Performance
UPS remains one of the world's largest package delivery companies, operating across three primary segments: U.S. Domestic, International, and Supply Chain Solutions. The company generated full-year 2025 consolidated revenue of $88.7 billion and returned $6.4 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. In recent quarters, UPS has undertaken what CEO Carol Tomé has described as "the most significant strategic shift" in company history. This includes reducing lower-margin Amazon volume, accelerating fleet modernization with the retirement of its MD-11 aircraft fleet, and implementing sweeping workforce reductions — approximately 48,000 positions eliminated since last year. The company has also streamlined its operational footprint, closing daily operations at dozens of facilities. Revenue per piece grew 8.3% in the U.S. Domestic segment during the fourth quarter of 2025, reflecting a deliberate pivot toward revenue quality over volume. The company's quarterly dividend of $1.64 per share offers investors a yield around 6.1%, positioning UPS as an income-oriented holding. Looking ahead, UPS projects full-year 2026 revenue of approximately $89.7 billion with a non-GAAP (non-Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) adjusted operating margin of around 9.6%.
XPO Overview and Recent Performance
XPO has emerged as a focused leader in asset-based less-than-truckload (LTL) freight transportation — a segment that consolidates shipments from multiple customers into single trucks, optimizing efficiency and cost. The company moves approximately 16 billion pounds of freight annually, serving 55,000 customers across 592 locations in North America and Europe. In its fourth quarter of 2025, XPO reported total revenue of $2.01 billion, a 4.7% year-over-year increase that surpassed analyst expectations. The North American LTL segment generated $1.17 billion in revenue, with adjusted operating income rising 13.8% to $181 million and its adjusted operating ratio improving 180 basis points to 84.4%. Critically, XPO achieved its twelfth consecutive quarter of sequential improvement in revenue per shipment excluding fuel, reflecting sustained pricing power. The European Transportation segment recorded its eighth straight quarter of revenue growth, contributing $846 million with a 19% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization). CEO Mario Harik has emphasized the role of proprietary AI technology in reducing cost-to-serve through improved network efficiency and labor productivity. The company ended 2025 with $310 million in cash on hand and a net leverage ratio of 2.4 times trailing adjusted EBITDA.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
While both UPS and XPO operate in the transportation and logistics sector, their business models, growth trajectories, and risk profiles diverge meaningfully. UPS is a diversified global behemoth handling small-package delivery, freight, and supply chain solutions — its scale is enormous, with annual revenue roughly 44 times that of XPO. Yet that scale brings complexity: UPS is simultaneously managing an Amazon volume wind-down, tariff-related disruptions to China-origin shipments, and a multi-year cost-restructuring program. XPO, by contrast, operates with a concentrated focus on LTL freight, an industry segment where pricing discipline and network efficiency directly translate to margin performance. XPO's adjusted operating ratio of 84.4% signals a leaner operational model, and its 30% excess door capacity positions it to capture volume upside without proportional cost increases if freight demand recovers. UPS offers a 6.1% dividend yield and massive free cash flow generation; XPO offers no dividend but is actively repurchasing shares and investing in technology-driven productivity. On risk, UPS faces ongoing labor and restructuring uncertainty alongside macroeconomic headwinds in global trade. XPO's risks center on industrial sector softness — tonnage per day declined 4.5% in Q4 — and the pace of AI productivity gains materializing as projected. Sentiment-wise, UPS is broadly viewed as a turnaround and income story, while XPO is seen as a margin-expansion and recovery-leverage play.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, operational momentum, and relative positioning within the current market environment, Tickeron's AI-driven analysis would likely favor XPO in this comparison. The rationale centers on XPO's sustained upward trajectory in key operational metrics — twelve consecutive quarters of improvement in revenue per shipment, a 180-basis-point expansion in its adjusted operating ratio, and validated AI-driven productivity gains — all of which suggest a durable earnings growth narrative. While UPS offers compelling income characteristics and the potential for a successful strategic pivot, its near-term picture includes declining volumes, workforce disruption, and the ongoing recalibration of its Amazon relationship. XPO's leaner operational structure, clearer pricing power, and capacity to benefit disproportionately from any freight market recovery align more closely with the momentum and efficiency signals that AI models tend to prioritize. This assessment reflects a probabilistic evaluation of trend strength and catalyst visibility rather than any definitive prediction of future stock performance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is UPS is a StrongBuy and XPO is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
UPS’s FA Score shows that 4 FA rating(s) are green whileXPO’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- UPS’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
- XPO’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
UPS’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while XPO’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- UPS’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- XPO’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
UPS (@Other Transportation) experienced а -2.49% price change this week, while XPO (@Trucking) price change was -0.93% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Other Transportation industry was -4.01%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.40%, and the average quarterly price growth was -15.16%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Trucking industry was -3.76%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.16%, and the average quarterly price growth was +36.69%.
Reported Earning Dates
UPS is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
XPO is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Other Transportation (-4.01% weekly)Other Transportation includes transportation services like providing airport ground transportation, airport management and equipment, shipping services, as well as businesses that operate bridges, expressways and other public services such as taxis and subways. Grupo Aero-pac, Corporacion America Airports S.A. and Matson, Inc. are some of the major companies operating in this space.
@Trucking (-3.76% weekly)The trucking industry provides road transportation delivery and logistical services, including moving large quantities of raw materials, works in process, and finished goods —often from manufacturing plants to retail distribution centers. Trucks are also used in the construction industry, as they transport large amounts of rocks, concrete, and other building materials used in construction. Trucks in the U.S. are responsible for the majority of freight movement over land, and therefore play an important role in the manufacturing, transportation, and warehousing industries. The business could be affected by economic cycles, since it is closely linked with manufacturing, retail and construction. Some of the major trucking companies in the U.S. are Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc., J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc., and XPO Logistics, Inc.
| UPS | XPO | UPS / XPO | |
| Capitalization | 97.6B | 25B | 390% |
| EBITDA | 11.6B | 1.22B | 955% |
| Gain YTD | 19.319 | 56.729 | 34% |
| P/E Ratio | 18.57 | 73.20 | 25% |
| Revenue | 88.3B | 8.3B | 1,064% |
| Total Cash | 5.8B | 237M | 2,448% |
| Total Debt | 28.7B | 4.03B | 712% |
UPS | XPO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 25 | 70 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 7 Undervalued | 87 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 17 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 31 | 46 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 26 | 40 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 29 | 14 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
UPS's Valuation (7) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is significantly better than the same rating for XPO (87) in the Trucking industry. This means that UPS’s stock grew significantly faster than XPO’s over the last 12 months.
XPO's Profit vs Risk Rating (17) in the Trucking industry is significantly better than the same rating for UPS (100) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry. This means that XPO’s stock grew significantly faster than UPS’s over the last 12 months.
UPS's SMR Rating (31) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as XPO (46) in the Trucking industry. This means that UPS’s stock grew similarly to XPO’s over the last 12 months.
UPS's Price Growth Rating (26) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as XPO (40) in the Trucking industry. This means that UPS’s stock grew similarly to XPO’s over the last 12 months.
XPO's P/E Growth Rating (14) in the Trucking industry is in the same range as UPS (29) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry. This means that XPO’s stock grew similarly to UPS’s over the last 12 months.
| UPS | XPO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 69% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 83% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 48% | 1 day ago 82% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 77% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 62% | 12 days ago 73% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 52% | 6 days ago 66% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 70% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 82% |
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UPS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UPS has been closely correlated with FDX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 70% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if UPS jumps, then FDX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To UPS | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPS | 100% | +0.60% | ||
| FDX - UPS | 70% Closely correlated | -0.21% | ||
| XPO - UPS | 64% Loosely correlated | -0.54% | ||
| GXO - UPS | 58% Loosely correlated | +0.27% | ||
| RLGT - UPS | 37% Loosely correlated | +0.45% | ||
| FWRD - UPS | 33% Loosely correlated | -1.49% | ||
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XPO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, XPO has been closely correlated with FWRD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 75% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if XPO jumps, then FWRD could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To XPO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XPO | 100% | -0.54% | ||
| FWRD - XPO | 75% Closely correlated | -1.49% | ||
| ODFL - XPO | 72% Closely correlated | +0.99% | ||
| GXO - XPO | 71% Closely correlated | +0.27% | ||
| HUBG - XPO | 70% Closely correlated | +0.12% | ||
| JBHT - XPO | 68% Closely correlated | -0.37% | ||
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