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UPS vs XPO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? United Parcel Service (UPS) vs. XPO (XPO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- UPS is a diversified global parcel-delivery and logistics leader, while XPO is a focused, asset-based less-than-truckload (LTL) freight carrier.
- Both companies delivered margin expansion in their most recent quarter, but their growth drivers and risk profiles differ materially.
- UPS is executing a multi-year network reconfiguration after reducing lower-margin e-commerce volume, targeting roughly $3 billion in 2026 savings.
- XPO posted a record LTL adjusted operating ratio and continues to gain market share while pricing improves.
- Relative performance and sector exposure make this a useful contrast between a large-cap parcel operator and a mid-cap freight carrier.
Introduction
United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) and XPO, Inc. (XPO) both operate at the heart of North American supply chains, yet they occupy different segments of the transportation market. This stock comparison is relevant for investors and traders evaluating how a large, diversified parcel-and-logistics franchise stacks up against a specialized freight carrier that has been gaining market share. Both names have shown improving profitability in recent quarters, but their relative performance reflects distinct catalysts, capital structures, and cyclical exposures. Understanding these contrasts can help readers assess each company's market positioning, growth trajectory, and sensitivity to broader freight and consumer-demand trends.
UPS Overview and Recent Performance
United Parcel Service is the world's largest parcel-delivery company, with three reporting segments: U.S. Domestic Package, International Package, and Supply Chain Solutions. In its most recent quarterly results, UPS reported consolidated revenue of approximately $22.8 billion, up 7.6% year over year, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rising 13.5% and adjusted operating margin expanding to 9.2%. Management also raised its full-year outlook for revenue, adjusted operating profit, and adjusted EPS.
The defining development in recent weeks has been the completion of an 18-month restructuring effort. UPS concluded its planned reduction of lower-margin e-commerce volume, removed roughly 2 million lower-quality packages per day, and reconfigured and automated its U.S. network. These actions, together with its "Efficiency Reimagined" initiatives, are expected to generate about $3 billion in cost benefits in 2026. Free cash flow more than doubled in the first half of the year, giving the company added flexibility. Sentiment, however, remains mixed: revenue-per-piece gains have helped offset declining average daily volume, and investors are weighing whether the remaining cost savings can be delivered without weakening service or pricing.
XPO Overview and Recent Performance
XPO, Inc. is a leading asset-based less-than-truckload (LTL) carrier — a provider of freight transportation for shipments that are larger than parcels but smaller than a full truckload. The company operates a North American LTL network plus a European Transportation segment, serving roughly 55,000 customers. In its most recent quarter, XPO reported total revenue of about $2.4 billion, up 13% year over year, with adjusted diluted EPS up 56% excluding real estate gains.
The standout metric has been its LTL adjusted operating ratio (a measure of operating expenses as a percentage of revenue, where lower is better), which improved to a record 79.9%. Shipments per day rose through the quarter, and recent monthly data showed shipment growth running well ahead of public peers. The company has also continued to expand capacity, opening new service centers and growing its network of dock doors. Its damage claims ratio fell to a company-record low below 0.2%, supporting its pricing power. These operational gains have been achieved in a historically soft freight environment, positioning the company for further margin expansion if demand recovers.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most fundamental difference between these two companies is business model. UPS is a diversified parcel and logistics platform whose results track consumer e-commerce, business-to-business shipping, and global trade. XPO is a concentrated LTL freight carrier whose performance is tied more directly to industrial activity, freight pricing, and network efficiency.
On growth drivers, UPS is relying on restructuring-led margin recovery — replacing low-margin volume with higher-value shipments in healthcare, small and midsized businesses, and international air freight. XPO, by contrast, is generating growth through market-share gains, above-market pricing, and technology-driven productivity, with the largest earnings upside tied to a potential cyclical recovery in freight demand.
Risk profiles also diverge. UPS faces execution risk in delivering its remaining cost savings while managing softer package volumes, fuel-cost inflation, and competitive pressure. XPO's risks center on freight-market cyclicality, wage and fuel inflation, and the integration of network expansion. On valuation and scale, UPS offers a larger revenue base, substantial free cash flow, and a dividend, while XPO offers a smaller, higher-growth profile with rapidly improving margins. In terms of recent momentum, XPO has shown faster earnings and margin expansion, whereas UPS has delivered steadier, restructuring-driven improvement against a larger and more mature base.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, stability, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward XPO in the current environment. The company's record operating ratio, consistent market-share gains, accelerating shipment trends, and pricing power present a clearer, more concentrated catalyst set than UPS's multi-year restructuring. That said, UPS offers greater scale, stronger free cash flow, and a more diversified revenue base, which may appeal to a momentum- or stability-oriented strategy during periods of macro uncertainty. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive, reflecting the relative strength of each company's current fundamentals and trend signals rather than a forecast of future returns.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is UPS is a Hold and XPO is a Hold.
UPS's RSI Oscillator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for UPS moved out of oversold territory on September 25, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 28 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 22 of the 28 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on UPS as a result. In 74 of 101 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for UPS just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where UPS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Following a +3.21% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UPS advanced for three days, in 196 of 318 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for UPS moved below the 200-day moving average on September 30, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UPS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
UPS broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for UPS entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. UPS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 63 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.504) is normal, around the industry mean (3.311). P/E Ratio (18.119) is within average values for comparable stocks, (7.558). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.340) is also within normal values, averaging (5.110). UPS has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.067) as compared to the industry average of (0.020). P/S Ratio (0.935) is also within normal values, averaging (2.034).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. UPS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock worse than average.
XPO's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for XPO turned positive on September 23, 2026. Looking at past instances where XPO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 40 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where XPO's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 12 of 18 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 30, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on XPO as a result. In 62 of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Following a +4.24% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XPO advanced for three days, in 215 of 292 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
XPO moved below its 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XPO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
XPO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for XPO entered a downward trend on September 30, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. XPO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 93 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: XPO's P/B Ratio (11.140) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (3.056). P/E Ratio (54.265) is within average values for comparable stocks, (45.734). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.707) is also within normal values, averaging (12.936). XPO has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.010). P/S Ratio (2.421) is also within normal values, averaging (2.068).
UPS | XPO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 16 | 39 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 63 Fair valued | 93 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 19 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 34 | 45 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 48 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 11 | 22 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
UPS's Valuation (63) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as XPO (93) in the Trucking industry. This means that UPS’s stock grew similarly to XPO’s over the last 12 months.
XPO's Profit vs Risk Rating (19) in the Trucking industry is significantly better than the same rating for UPS (100) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry. This means that XPO’s stock grew significantly faster than UPS’s over the last 12 months.
UPS's SMR Rating (34) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as XPO (45) in the Trucking industry. This means that UPS’s stock grew similarly to XPO’s over the last 12 months.
XPO's Price Growth Rating (48) in the Trucking industry is in the same range as UPS (57) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry. This means that XPO’s stock grew similarly to UPS’s over the last 12 months.
UPS's P/E Growth Rating (11) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as XPO (22) in the Trucking industry. This means that UPS’s stock grew similarly to XPO’s over the last 12 months.
| UPS | XPO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 79% | 4 days ago 67% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 53% | 4 days ago 75% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 73% | 4 days ago 74% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 71% | 4 days ago 80% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 61% | 4 days ago 76% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 50% | 4 days ago 79% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 62% | 5 days ago 74% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 53% | 25 days ago 66% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | 4 days ago 65% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | 4 days ago 76% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
UPS’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while XPO’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- UPS’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- XPO’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
UPS’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while XPO’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- UPS’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- XPO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
UPS (@Other Transportation) experienced а +2.22% price change this week, while XPO (@Trucking) price change was +2.68% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Other Transportation industry was -3.08%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.26%, and the average quarterly price growth was -27.78%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Trucking industry was -0.85%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.92%, and the average quarterly price growth was +7.10%.
Reported Earning Dates
UPS is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
XPO is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Other Transportation (-3.08% weekly)Other Transportation includes transportation services like providing airport ground transportation, airport management and equipment, shipping services, as well as businesses that operate bridges, expressways and other public services such as taxis and subways. Grupo Aero-pac, Corporacion America Airports S.A. and Matson, Inc. are some of the major companies operating in this space.
@Trucking (-0.85% weekly)The trucking industry provides road transportation delivery and logistical services, including moving large quantities of raw materials, works in process, and finished goods —often from manufacturing plants to retail distribution centers. Trucks are also used in the construction industry, as they transport large amounts of rocks, concrete, and other building materials used in construction. Trucks in the U.S. are responsible for the majority of freight movement over land, and therefore play an important role in the manufacturing, transportation, and warehousing industries. The business could be affected by economic cycles, since it is closely linked with manufacturing, retail and construction. Some of the major trucking companies in the U.S. are Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc., J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc., and XPO Logistics, Inc.
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UPS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UPS has been loosely correlated with XPO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 64% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if UPS jumps, then XPO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To UPS | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPS | 100% | -0.02% | ||
| XPO - UPS | 64% Loosely correlated | -0.71% | ||
| GXO - UPS | 57% Loosely correlated | +0.70% | ||
| FDX - UPS | 50% Loosely correlated | +0.08% | ||
| HUBG - UPS | 37% Loosely correlated | -2.91% | ||
| RLGT - UPS | 36% Loosely correlated | -2.34% | ||
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XPO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, XPO has been closely correlated with FWRD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 75% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if XPO jumps, then FWRD could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To XPO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XPO | 100% | -0.71% | ||
| FWRD - XPO | 75% Closely correlated | +1.86% | ||
| SAIA - XPO | 73% Closely correlated | -1.19% | ||
| GXO - XPO | 71% Closely correlated | +0.70% | ||
| HUBG - XPO | 70% Closely correlated | -2.91% | ||
| JBHT - XPO | 68% Closely correlated | -2.42% | ||
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