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HNST vs ULTA
Which Stock Would AI Choose? The Honest Company (HNST) vs. Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- The Honest Company (HNST) reported Q2 2026 results with revenue of $83.3 million and raised full-year guidance, contributing to strong year-to-date stock gains.
- Ulta Beauty (ULTA) delivered solid Q1 2026 results with 11.1% net sales growth and comparable sales up 5.3%, ahead of its Q2 earnings release scheduled for late August.
- HNST operates in the personal care and household products sector with a focus on clean, sustainable items, while ULTA is a leading specialty beauty retailer with physical stores and salon services.
- Recent market activity shows HNST benefiting from margin expansion and share repurchases, whereas ULTA highlights customer base growth amid broader retail sector dynamics.
- Both stocks exhibit distinct risk profiles: HNST faces category-specific challenges in diapers, while ULTA contends with competitive pressures in beauty retail.
- Relative performance in recent weeks reflects differing earnings cycles and sector exposures rather than uniform market trends.
Introduction
Investors and traders often compare stocks within or across consumer sectors to assess relative performance, business model resilience, and market positioning amid evolving economic conditions. The Honest Company (HNST) and Ulta Beauty (ULTA) represent two distinct segments of the consumer discretionary and staples space: one centered on personal care and household products, the other on specialty beauty retail. This comparison provides insights for those evaluating growth drivers, recent momentum, and volatility patterns. Market participants monitoring earnings cycles, margin trends, and sector-specific catalysts may find the analysis relevant for portfolio allocation decisions.
HNST Overview and Recent Performance
The Honest Company, Inc. (HNST) develops and markets cleanly formulated personal care, baby, beauty, and household products. In recent weeks, the stock has shown notable strength following its Q2 2026 earnings release. Revenue reached $83.3 million, with organic revenue growing 6.7%. Gross margins expanded significantly, supported by strategic exits and favorable product mix. The company raised its full-year 2026 outlook, guiding for revenue between $319 million and $325 million and adjusted EBITDA of $23 million to $25 million. Share repurchases totaling $18.7 million year-to-date have also contributed to positive sentiment. Market activity reflects improved stability in a segment facing category headwinds.
ULTA Overview and Recent Performance
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) operates as a specialty retailer offering cosmetics, skincare, haircare, fragrance, and salon services through stores and digital channels. Recent market activity has been influenced by its strong Q1 2026 results, with net sales rising 11.1% to $3.2 billion and comparable sales increasing 5.3%. The company continues to expand its customer base and loyalty programs. Ahead of its Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings expected in late August, the stock has experienced volatility consistent with broader retail sector movements. Performance in recent weeks underscores resilience in average ticket and transaction growth despite competitive dynamics in beauty retail.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The Honest Company (HNST) and Ulta Beauty (ULTA) differ substantially in business models. HNST focuses on direct-to-consumer and retail distribution of sustainable personal care items, exposing it to raw material costs and category shifts in baby products. ULTA emphasizes an omnichannel beauty retail experience with high fixed costs tied to store operations but benefits from recurring salon revenue. Recent momentum favors HNST following its earnings beat and guidance raise, while ULTA shows steadier comparable sales growth yet awaits its next quarterly update. Risk factors include HNST’s exposure to diaper category declines versus ULTA’s sensitivity to consumer discretionary spending and competition. Sector exposure places HNST in consumer defensive personal products and ULTA in specialty retail, resulting in distinct correlations to economic cycles and sentiment shifts.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency after recent earnings, margin stability, and positioning relative to guidance, Tickeron’s AI models currently assign a higher probabilistic preference to The Honest Company (HNST) over Ulta Beauty (ULTA) in the near term. This assessment reflects HNST’s demonstrated post-earnings momentum and balance sheet improvements versus ULTA’s pre-earnings uncertainty. Outcomes remain subject to upcoming data releases and broader market conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is HNST is a Buy and ULTA is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HNST’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileULTA’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- HNST’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- ULTA’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HNST’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ULTA’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HNST’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- ULTA’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
HNST (@Household/Personal Care) experienced а +12.28% price change this week, while ULTA (@Specialty Stores) price change was -0.76% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Household/Personal Care industry was +0.87%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.91%, and the average quarterly price growth was -0.75%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Specialty Stores industry was -2.55%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.45%, and the average quarterly price growth was +170.49%.
Reported Earning Dates
HNST is expected to report earnings on Nov 11, 2026.
ULTA is expected to report earnings on Nov 26, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Household/Personal Care (+0.87% weekly)Household/Personal Care companies sell products for home cleaning and/or personal hygiene and grooming purposes. Products of this industry include detergents, shampoos, soaps, cosmetics, fabric conditioners and infant care fragrances. Procter & Gamble, Unilever, Estee Lauder and Colgate-Palmolive are some of the biggest names in the business. A lot of the products become a necessary part of people’s daily routine, and therefore the industry is relatively less vulnerable to macroeconomic downturns. At the same time, product quality, consumer safety, and ease of use are extremely critical factors for a company to survive competition and earn recognition in this industry.
@Specialty Stores (-2.55% weekly)The specialty stores sector includes companies dedicated to the sale of retail products focused on a single product category, such as clothing, carpet, books, or office supplies. A specialty store could face intense competition from big-box departmental chains, and therefore offering an adequate collection of the product type it specializes in is key in maintaining/growing its market.
| HNST | ULTA | HNST / ULTA | |
| Capitalization | 608M | 22.1B | 3% |
| EBITDA | -7.35M | 1.91B | -0% |
| Gain YTD | 119.767 | -14.464 | -828% |
| P/E Ratio | 47.33 | 18.85 | 251% |
| Revenue | 352M | 12.7B | 3% |
| Total Cash | 90.4M | 221M | 41% |
| Total Debt | 11.8M | 2.3B | 1% |
ULTA | ||
|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 90 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 60 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 22 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 59 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 56 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
| HNST | ULTA | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 83% | 3 days ago 62% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 88% | 3 days ago 62% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 85% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 77% | 3 days ago 64% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 73% | 3 days ago 66% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 70% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 70% | 7 days ago 68% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 17 days ago 87% | 3 days ago 61% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 89% | 3 days ago 61% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 77% | 3 days ago 65% |
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HNST and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HNST has been loosely correlated with GRWG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 56% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if HNST jumps, then GRWG could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To HNST | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNST | 100% | -1.56% | ||
| GRWG - HNST | 56% Loosely correlated | -2.41% | ||
| RH - HNST | 56% Loosely correlated | +3.24% | ||
| FND - HNST | 55% Loosely correlated | -0.69% | ||
| CHPT - HNST | 54% Loosely correlated | -4.46% | ||
| LESL - HNST | 53% Loosely correlated | -0.39% | ||
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ULTA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ULTA has been loosely correlated with HNST. These tickers have moved in lockstep 49% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ULTA jumps, then HNST could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ULTA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULTA | 100% | -4.18% | ||
| HNST - ULTA | 49% Loosely correlated | -1.56% | ||
| AN - ULTA | 46% Loosely correlated | +0.67% | ||
| CPRT - ULTA | 45% Loosely correlated | +0.70% | ||
| LOW - ULTA | 42% Loosely correlated | +0.63% | ||
| FIVE - ULTA | 42% Loosely correlated | -2.06% | ||
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