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HNST vs ULTA
Which Stock Would AI Choose? The Honest Company (HNST) vs. Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- HNST is a smaller, turnaround-focused personal-care company whose shares have delivered sharp, volatile momentum in recent months, including a strong year-to-date advance.
- ULTA is a large-cap specialty beauty retailer with consistent profitability, steadily rising guidance, and a roughly $24 billion market capitalization.
- The two names operate in adjacent consumer categories but represent very different profiles: a niche clean-products brand versus a diversified omnichannel retailer.
- HNST's story centers on margin recovery and share buybacks, while ULTA leans on loyalty scale, category breadth, and international expansion.
- Risk profiles differ markedly, with HNST exposed to tariff and diaper-category pressures and ULTA facing consumer-spending and competitive headwinds.
Introduction
Investors comparing HNST and ULTA are weighing two very different ways to gain exposure to the consumer goods and beauty markets. The Honest Company is a small-cap personal-care brand focused on "clean" products for babies and adults, while Ulta Beauty is the largest specialty beauty retailer in the United States. This stock comparison is most relevant to traders evaluating relative momentum and market positioning, as well as to longer-term investors assessing growth durability, margin quality, and risk. Understanding how each company converts recent developments into share-price behavior helps clarify which profile may be better suited to current market conditions.
HNST Overview and Recent Performance
The Honest Company is a personal-care business built around cleanly formulated and sustainably designed products, sold through retailers such as Amazon, Target, and Walmart. Its recent market activity has been defined by a turnaround effort, often described as a transformation focused on higher-margin categories such as wipes and personal care while managing structural pressure in its diaper business. In recent quarters, management has reported organic revenue growth and historically strong adjusted gross margins, even as total reported revenue declined because of exited categories.
Sentiment toward HNST has improved sharply. Following its most recent quarterly results, the company raised its full-year revenue outlook and completed a share repurchase program that retired more than 6% of its outstanding shares, contributing to a notably strong weekly and year-to-date advance. The company carries no long-term debt, which supports its capital-light model. However, tariff exposure and persistent weakness in the diaper category remain key factors weighing on the outlook.
ULTA Overview and Recent Performance
Ulta Beauty is the largest specialty beauty retailer in the U.S., operating more than 1,500 stores alongside a growing e-commerce platform and an international footprint through its Space NK subsidiary, as well as ventures in Mexico and the Middle East. Its mass-to-prestige assortment and loyalty program, which counts nearly 47 million members, anchor a diversified model spanning cosmetics, fragrance, skin care, hair care, and salon services.
In recent market activity, ULTA has reported consecutive quarterly earnings and revenue beats, supported by broad-based category growth led by fragrance and hair care. Management has raised full-year guidance, including an increase in earnings per share (EPS) expectations and an expanded share repurchase target. Comparable sales have grown steadily, and the company continues to invest in personalization, AI-enabled tools, and supply-chain automation. Ongoing risks include value-conscious consumer behavior, inflation, and intensifying competition from rivals such as Amazon and Sephora.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
From a business-model perspective, HNST is a focused brand-owner competing on product differentiation and margin efficiency, while ULTA is a large-scale retailer monetizing assortment breadth, loyalty data, and store-plus-digital convenience. Their growth drivers differ accordingly: HNST's relative performance hinges on stabilizing diapers while scaling higher-margin categories, whereas ULTA's trajectory depends on comparable sales, exclusive-brand development, and international expansion.
Momentum has favored HNST recently, with a more dramatic share-price advance and a bullish tilt in some options positioning. ULTA, by contrast, offers a steadier profile, with lower volatility and consistent earnings generation at a far larger scale. On risk, HNST carries concentrated exposure to tariffs and a single challenged category, while ULTA faces broader consumer-spending sensitivity and a more crowded competitive landscape. In terms of sector exposure, both sit within consumer discretionary-linked categories, but ULTA's diversified retail model generally provides more stable cash flow than a niche brand still working through a turnaround.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward ULTA for its greater trend consistency, established profitability, diversified catalysts, and relatively stable market positioning. While HNST has demonstrated stronger recent momentum, that move has also come with higher volatility and is tied to a still-unfinished operational turnaround. In probabilistic terms, ULTA's steadier earnings trajectory and broader moat present a more dependable setup under current conditions, whereas HNST's appeal rests more on momentum and execution-dependent upside. Neither conclusion should be read as a forecast of guaranteed returns.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is HNST is a Hold and ULTA is a Buy.
HNST in downward trend: 10-day moving average broke below 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026
The 10-day moving average for HNST crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 12 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 46 of 53 cases where HNST's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 87%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on HNST as a result. In 82 of 98 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 84%.
HNST moved below its 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HNST declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 87%.
The Aroon Indicator for HNST entered a downward trend on October 19, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a +2.37% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HNST advanced for three days, in 176 of 252 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
HNST may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 9 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.122) is normal, around the industry mean (21.356). HNST has a moderately low P/E Ratio (-48.600) as compared to the industry average of (17.028). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (1.518). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.034) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.750) is also within normal values, averaging (1.931).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. HNST’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 93 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. HNST’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 89, placing this stock worse than average.
ULTA's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ULTA turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where ULTA's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 07, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ULTA as a result. In 58 of 81 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
Following a +2.60% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ULTA advanced for three days, in 215 of 313 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 169 of 277 cases where ULTA Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 61%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ULTA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
ULTA broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 13, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. ULTA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 90, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 87 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ULTA's P/B Ratio (9.817) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.329). P/E Ratio (22.040) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.119). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.978) is also within normal values, averaging (1.159). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.093) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.806) is also within normal values, averaging (1.057).
ULTA | ||
|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 24 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 87 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 51 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 22 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 16 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 28 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
| HNST | ULTA | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 54% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 87% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 84% | 2 days ago 72% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 80% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 86% | 2 days ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 88% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 87% | 4 days ago 61% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 89% | 2 days ago 61% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HNST’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while ULTA’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- HNST’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- ULTA’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HNST’s TA Score shows that 2 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ULTA’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HNST’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 6 bearish.
- ULTA’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
HNST (@Household/Personal Care) experienced а -4.14% price change this week, while ULTA (@Specialty Stores) price change was +2.46% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Household/Personal Care industry was -0.56%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.49%, and the average quarterly price growth was +10.58%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Specialty Stores industry was +0.01%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +4.71%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.46%.
Reported Earning Dates
HNST is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
ULTA is expected to report earnings on Dec 03, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Household/Personal Care (-0.56% weekly)Household/Personal Care companies sell products for home cleaning and/or personal hygiene and grooming purposes. Products of this industry include detergents, shampoos, soaps, cosmetics, fabric conditioners and infant care fragrances. Procter & Gamble, Unilever, Estee Lauder and Colgate-Palmolive are some of the biggest names in the business. A lot of the products become a necessary part of people’s daily routine, and therefore the industry is relatively less vulnerable to macroeconomic downturns. At the same time, product quality, consumer safety, and ease of use are extremely critical factors for a company to survive competition and earn recognition in this industry.
@Specialty Stores (+0.01% weekly)The specialty stores sector includes companies dedicated to the sale of retail products focused on a single product category, such as clothing, carpet, books, or office supplies. A specialty store could face intense competition from big-box departmental chains, and therefore offering an adequate collection of the product type it specializes in is key in maintaining/growing its market.
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HNST and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HNST has been loosely correlated with GRWG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 56% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if HNST jumps, then GRWG could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To HNST | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNST | 100% | -4.05% | ||
| GRWG - HNST | 56% Loosely correlated | +1.42% | ||
| RH - HNST | 56% Loosely correlated | +6.91% | ||
| FND - HNST | 55% Loosely correlated | -0.22% | ||
| CHPT - HNST | 54% Loosely correlated | +7.15% | ||
| WSM - HNST | 52% Loosely correlated | -0.26% | ||
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ULTA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ULTA has been loosely correlated with HNST. These tickers have moved in lockstep 49% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ULTA jumps, then HNST could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ULTA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULTA | 100% | +0.68% | ||
| HNST - ULTA | 49% Loosely correlated | -4.05% | ||
| AN - ULTA | 46% Loosely correlated | -5.49% | ||
| CPRT - ULTA | 45% Loosely correlated | -0.88% | ||
| LOW - ULTA | 42% Loosely correlated | -0.99% | ||
| ONEW - ULTA | 42% Loosely correlated | -0.64% | ||
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