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AN vs ULTA
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AutoNation (AN) vs. Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AutoNation reported Q2 2026 revenue of $6.9 billion, down 1% year-over-year, while delivering strong earnings per share growth and continued share repurchases.
- Ulta Beauty posted Q1 fiscal 2026 net sales of $3.2 billion, up 11.1% year-over-year, with comparable sales rising 5.3% and diluted EPS increasing 15.5%.
- AN shares have returned 3.39% year-to-date through August 21, 2026, lagging the S&P 500, whereas ULTA shares have returned 13.81% over the same period.
- AN benefits from after-sales service strength and automotive retail scale, while ULTA draws from broad-based consumer spending in beauty and expanded store and digital channels.
- Both companies maintain active capital return programs through buybacks, with ULTA showing higher top-line momentum in recent quarters.
- Sector exposure differs sharply: AN faces cyclical automotive demand, while ULTA operates in resilient consumer discretionary beauty retail.
Introduction
AutoNation (AN) and Ulta Beauty (ULTA) represent distinct segments of the consumer discretionary sector, with one focused on automotive retail and the other on beauty products and services. Investors and traders seeking exposure to retail recovery, consumer spending patterns, or sector rotation often compare these names to assess relative momentum and risk profiles. This analysis examines recent financial results, stock performance, and market positioning to highlight key contrasts that may inform portfolio decisions in the current environment.
AN Overview and Recent Performance
AutoNation operates as the largest automotive retailer in the United States, with dealerships offering new and used vehicles, parts, and service. In recent weeks, the company released second-quarter 2026 results showing revenue of $6.9 billion, a 1% decline year-over-year, alongside GAAP diluted EPS of $5.39 and adjusted diluted EPS of $5.56. Strong after-sales performance and consumer finance services contributed to earnings resilience despite softer vehicle sales. The stock traded near $199.49 on August 21, 2026, within a 52-week range of $176.62 to $235.81, delivering a year-to-date return of 3.39% that trailed broader market benchmarks. Recent market activity reflects ongoing share repurchases and focus on free cash flow generation amid moderating industry volumes.
ULTA Overview and Recent Performance
Ulta Beauty runs a leading chain of beauty stores and e-commerce platforms offering cosmetics, skincare, haircare, and salon services. The company reported first-quarter fiscal 2026 results with net sales of $3.2 billion, an 11.1% increase year-over-year, supported by 5.3% comparable sales growth and the acquisition of Space NK. Diluted EPS rose 15.5% to $7.74. Shares closed at $521.46 on August 21, 2026, inside a 52-week range of $443.60 to $714.97, posting a year-to-date return of 13.81% that modestly exceeded the S&P 500. Recent market activity highlights continued share repurchases totaling $555 million in the quarter and broad strength across product categories and channels.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
AutoNation and Ulta Beauty operate in separate retail verticals with contrasting demand drivers. AN derives the majority of revenue from vehicle sales and service, exposing it to cyclical automotive trends and interest-rate sensitivity, whereas ULTA benefits from steady consumer spending on beauty and personal care products. Recent momentum favors ULTA, which delivered double-digit sales growth and EPS expansion, compared with AN’s modest revenue decline offset by earnings strength. Risk factors include AN’s higher exposure to economic slowdowns affecting big-ticket purchases and ULTA’s sensitivity to discretionary spending shifts or competition. Market sentiment reflects ULTA’s outperformance year-to-date versus AN’s more modest gains, with both companies supporting valuations through consistent buyback activity. Sector positioning underscores a trade-off between defensive service revenue at AN and higher-growth category expansion at ULTA.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including earnings consistency, top-line growth trends, and relative price stability in recent market activity, Tickeron’s AI models currently assign a higher probability of favorable positioning to ULTA. The company’s stronger revenue expansion and comparable sales gains provide clearer momentum signals relative to AN’s mixed results. Continued monitoring of sector-specific catalysts and broader market conditions would be required to reassess this probabilistic assessment.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AN is a StrongBuy and ULTA is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AN’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileULTA’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- AN’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- ULTA’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AN’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ULTA’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AN’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- ULTA’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
AN (@Automotive Aftermarket) experienced а +1.62% price change this week, while ULTA (@Specialty Stores) price change was -1.79% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Automotive Aftermarket industry was -7.07%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -10.56%, and the average quarterly price growth was -8.37%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Specialty Stores industry was -3.53%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -8.14%, and the average quarterly price growth was -1.50%.
Reported Earning Dates
AN is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
ULTA is expected to report earnings on Dec 03, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Automotive Aftermarket (-7.07% weekly)The Automotive Aftermarket consists of the manufacturing, remanufacturing, distribution, retailing, and installation of vehicle parts and accessories, after the sale of the automobile by the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) to the consumer. The aftermarket parts many not be manufactured by the OEM. According to a Technavio study, the US automotive parts aftermarket size is estimated to grow by USD 24.33 billion during 2018-2022 (CAGR 3%). Like many other industries, the automotive aftermarket is also being intensely penetrated by the digital boom. The online auto parts sales market is predicted to exceed $13B by 2020 (according to a study by Mirakl).
@Specialty Stores (-3.53% weekly)The specialty stores sector includes companies dedicated to the sale of retail products focused on a single product category, such as clothing, carpet, books, or office supplies. A specialty store could face intense competition from big-box departmental chains, and therefore offering an adequate collection of the product type it specializes in is key in maintaining/growing its market.
| AN | ULTA | AN / ULTA | |
| Capitalization | 6.92B | 23.2B | 30% |
| EBITDA | 1.75B | 1.94B | 90% |
| Gain YTD | 1.308 | -10.438 | -13% |
| P/E Ratio | 9.70 | 19.73 | 49% |
| Revenue | 27.4B | 13B | 211% |
| Total Cash | 53.3M | 213M | 25% |
| Total Debt | 11.3B | 2.52B | 448% |
AN | ULTA | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 18 | 13 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 73 Overvalued | 92 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 27 | 60 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 31 | 23 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 50 | 52 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 80 | 42 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 65 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AN's Valuation (73) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as ULTA (92). This means that AN’s stock grew similarly to ULTA’s over the last 12 months.
AN's Profit vs Risk Rating (27) in the Specialty Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ULTA (60). This means that AN’s stock grew somewhat faster than ULTA’s over the last 12 months.
ULTA's SMR Rating (23) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as AN (31). This means that ULTA’s stock grew similarly to AN’s over the last 12 months.
AN's Price Growth Rating (50) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as ULTA (52). This means that AN’s stock grew similarly to ULTA’s over the last 12 months.
ULTA's P/E Growth Rating (42) in the Specialty Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AN (80). This means that ULTA’s stock grew somewhat faster than AN’s over the last 12 months.
| AN | ULTA | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 64% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 73% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 82% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 66% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 67% | 7 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 61% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 76% |
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Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AN has been closely correlated with PAG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AN jumps, then PAG could also see price increases.