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AN vs ULTA
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AutoNation (AN) vs. Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AN is trading near the lower end of its 52-week range with a low trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, while ULTA carries a premium valuation on steadier, higher-margin growth.
- AutoNation's recent results have been supported by its after-sales and finance businesses, even as new-vehicle unit sales soften.
- Ulta Beauty has delivered consecutive earnings beats and recently raised its full-year guidance, reinforced by a larger share-buyback plan.
- The two companies operate in very different sectors — automotive retail versus specialty beauty retail — giving them distinct demand drivers and risk profiles.
- Relative performance has diverged recently: ULTA has held up better, while AN has faced affordability and tariff-related headwinds in new-vehicle demand.
Introduction
AutoNation and Ulta Beauty rarely appear in the same conversation, but comparing them offers a useful contrast in business quality, valuation, and momentum. AutoNation (AN) is one of the largest automotive retailers in the United States, while Ulta Beauty (ULTA) is the leading specialty beauty retailer. Investors weighing a cyclical, value-oriented name against a steadier consumer-growth franchise may find this stock comparison instructive. The two companies differ in sector exposure, earnings visibility, and market positioning, making their relative performance a lens through which to assess current market sentiment across both discretionary retail and automotive demand.
AN Overview and Recent Performance
AutoNation (AN) operates through Domestic, Import, Premium Luxury, and AutoNation Finance segments, selling new and used vehicles alongside parts, service, and finance and insurance (F&I) products. Recent market activity has been challenging for the stock, which has declined meaningfully over the trailing twelve months and trades near the lower end of its 52-week range. This reflects softer new-vehicle volumes, in part tied to affordability pressures and difficult comparisons following earlier tariff-related demand pull-forward.
Even so, the underlying earnings picture has been more resilient than the share-price move suggests. Parts and service — the company's highest-margin and most recurring segment — has delivered consistent growth and record gross profit, while AutoNation Finance has scaled rapidly. These steadier, higher-margin lines have helped offset weaker new-vehicle unit sales. Management has also continued aggressive share repurchases, deploying hundreds of millions of dollars to buy back stock. The combination of a low P/E ratio and declining share count highlights a value-oriented profile, but also signals investor concern about the cyclical outlook for vehicle sales.
ULTA Overview and Recent Performance
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) is the largest U.S. specialty beauty retailer, operating a broad omnichannel model that spans stores, e-commerce, and a large loyalty program. Recent performance has been comparatively stronger. The company has posted consecutive earnings-per-share (EPS) beats, with revenue growth in the high single digits and positive comparable-store sales. In its most recent quarter, management raised full-year guidance for both sales and EPS, supported by strength in categories such as fragrance, K-beauty, and haircare, as well as prestige market-share gains.
The stock trades at a notably higher valuation than AutoNation, with a trailing P/E in the low 20s, reflecting the market's willingness to pay for steadier growth, stronger returns on equity, and a cleaner balance sheet. Ulta has also increased its share-repurchase authorization, adding a capital-return tailwind. The main risks center on a competitive and increasingly promotional beauty environment and a maturing store base, which could temper comparable-sales growth and margin expansion over time.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two stocks is valuation versus growth. AutoNation (AN) trades at a single-digit P/E ratio, a level that reflects a more cyclical, capital-intensive business with higher leverage and sensitivity to interest rates and vehicle affordability. Its earnings are increasingly supported by recurring after-sales and captive-finance income, but the top line remains tied to unit volumes that have softened. Ulta Beauty (ULTA), by contrast, commands a premium multiple backed by steadier comparable-sales growth, superior return on equity, and lower balance-sheet leverage.
On momentum and sentiment, the gap is also clear. Ulta's guidance raises, earnings beats, and expanded buyback have supported a more constructive tone, while AutoNation has faced downward estimate revisions and a declining share price even as analysts retain largely positive ratings. Risk profiles differ as well: AN is exposed to cyclical vehicle demand and residual tariff effects, whereas ULTA faces promotional intensity and slowing category growth. In short, AN offers a deeper value and capital-return story with cyclical risk, while ULTA offers higher-quality growth at a higher price.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings momentum, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward Ulta Beauty (ULTA) in the current environment. The stock has exhibited more stable uptrend characteristics, supported by consecutive EPS beats, raised guidance, and constructive analyst revisions. AutoNation (AN) presents a compelling valuation and strong after-sales fundamentals, but its share price remains in a defined downtrend with weaker near-term catalysts. A probabilistic, systematic approach would therefore tend to favor ULTA's steadier trend while acknowledging that AN's low multiple could appeal to value- and mean-reversion-oriented strategies should vehicle-demand sentiment stabilize.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AN is a StrongBuy and ULTA is a Buy.
AN's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AN turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where AN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where AN's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 14 of 20 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AN as a result. In 59 of 90 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Following a +5.58% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AN advanced for three days, in 223 of 342 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 41 of 63 cases where AN's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
The 10-day moving average for AN crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 17, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
The 50-day moving average for AN moved below the 200-day moving average on September 29, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
The Aroon Indicator for AN entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 56 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.239) is normal, around the industry mean (1.320). P/E Ratio (7.019) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.107). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.444) is also within normal values, averaging (0.695). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.012) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.255) is also within normal values, averaging (0.919).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 68 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 85, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 78 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. AN’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
ULTA's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ULTA turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where ULTA's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 07, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ULTA as a result. In 59 of 81 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Following a +5.33% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ULTA advanced for three days, in 215 of 313 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 169 of 277 cases where ULTA Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 61%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 9 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ULTA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
ULTA broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. ULTA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 89, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ULTA's P/B Ratio (10.270) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.368). P/E Ratio (23.058) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.442). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.978) is also within normal values, averaging (1.159). Dividend Yield (0.006) settles around the average of (0.093) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.806) is also within normal values, averaging (1.057).
AN | ULTA | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 79 | 33 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 56 Fair valued | 88 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 68 | 46 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 31 | 22 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 78 | 17 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 88 | 24 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AN's Valuation (56) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as ULTA (88). This means that AN’s stock grew similarly to ULTA’s over the last 12 months.
ULTA's Profit vs Risk Rating (46) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as AN (68). This means that ULTA’s stock grew similarly to AN’s over the last 12 months.
ULTA's SMR Rating (22) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as AN (31). This means that ULTA’s stock grew similarly to AN’s over the last 12 months.
ULTA's Price Growth Rating (17) in the Specialty Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AN (78). This means that ULTA’s stock grew somewhat faster than AN’s over the last 12 months.
ULTA's P/E Growth Rating (24) in the Specialty Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AN (88). This means that ULTA’s stock grew somewhat faster than AN’s over the last 12 months.
| AN | ULTA | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 47% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 61% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 73% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 77% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 73% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 71% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 65% | 1 day ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 61% | 4 days ago 61% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 58% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 61% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AN’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while ULTA’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- AN’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- ULTA’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AN’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ULTA’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AN’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- ULTA’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AN (@Automotive Aftermarket) experienced а -0.12% price change this week, while ULTA (@Specialty Stores) price change was +2.46% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Automotive Aftermarket industry was -4.07%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -10.96%, and the average quarterly price growth was -18.76%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Specialty Stores industry was +0.60%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.18%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.86%.
Reported Earning Dates
AN is expected to report earnings on Oct 30, 2026.
ULTA is expected to report earnings on Dec 03, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Automotive Aftermarket (-4.07% weekly)The Automotive Aftermarket consists of the manufacturing, remanufacturing, distribution, retailing, and installation of vehicle parts and accessories, after the sale of the automobile by the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) to the consumer. The aftermarket parts many not be manufactured by the OEM. According to a Technavio study, the US automotive parts aftermarket size is estimated to grow by USD 24.33 billion during 2018-2022 (CAGR 3%). Like many other industries, the automotive aftermarket is also being intensely penetrated by the digital boom. The online auto parts sales market is predicted to exceed $13B by 2020 (according to a study by Mirakl).
@Specialty Stores (+0.60% weekly)The specialty stores sector includes companies dedicated to the sale of retail products focused on a single product category, such as clothing, carpet, books, or office supplies. A specialty store could face intense competition from big-box departmental chains, and therefore offering an adequate collection of the product type it specializes in is key in maintaining/growing its market.
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AN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AN has been closely correlated with PAG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AN jumps, then PAG could also see price increases.
ULTA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ULTA has been loosely correlated with HNST. These tickers have moved in lockstep 49% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ULTA jumps, then HNST could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ULTA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULTA | 100% | +4.62% | ||
| HNST - ULTA | 49% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
| AN - ULTA | 46% Loosely correlated | +5.77% | ||
| CPRT - ULTA | 45% Loosely correlated | +5.46% | ||
| LOW - ULTA | 42% Loosely correlated | +3.97% | ||
| ONEW - ULTA | 42% Loosely correlated | +2.15% | ||
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