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HOOD vs IBKR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Robinhood Markets (HOOD) vs. Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- HOOD delivered explosive revenue growth in 2025 but has seen sentiment cool in recent weeks on slowing trading volumes and crypto volatility.
- IBKR has posted steadier, more consistent growth, driven by strong account additions and industry-leading profit margins.
- The two firms serve different client bases: HOOD skews toward retail and crypto/prediction-market activity, while IBKR targets sophisticated global traders and institutions.
- IBKR's pre-tax profit margin has reached roughly 79%, among the highest of any operating business, versus HOOD's faster but more volatile growth profile.
- Both stocks trade at premium valuations, but HOOD carries a notably higher earnings multiple and greater sensitivity to market sentiment.
- Risk factors differ materially: HOOD faces concentration in transaction-based and crypto revenue, while IBKR is more exposed to trading volumes and net interest income (NII).
Introduction
Online brokerages have emerged as some of the market's most dynamic growth stories, and few pairs illustrate the sector's range better than Robinhood Markets and Interactive Brokers Group. This stock comparison examines how HOOD, a retail-first platform built on simplicity and commission-free trading, stacks up against IBKR, a technology-driven brokerage serving sophisticated global traders. The contrast is useful for investors weighing high-growth momentum against steadier, margin-rich compounding. Whether assessing relative performance, market positioning, or risk exposure, this comparison highlights the trade-offs between two very different paths to profitability in the same industry.
HOOD Overview and Recent Performance
Robinhood Markets pioneered commission-free trading and has since evolved into a broader consumer financial platform spanning equities, options, cryptocurrencies, retirement accounts, and, more recently, prediction markets. Revenue scaled rapidly through 2025, roughly doubling year over year in the third quarter, with transaction-based revenue and net interest income (NII, or interest earned on client cash and margin balances) both contributing. Gold subscribers surpassed 3.9 million, and total platform assets expanded sharply.
Recent weeks have brought a shift in sentiment. November trading data showed equity volumes falling roughly 37% month over month, with options and crypto activity also declining, triggering a double-digit pullback. Fourth-quarter revenue came in slightly below consensus expectations, and the stock, which gained more than 200% during 2025, has retreated notably. Elevated valuation, concentration in crypto and transaction revenue, and sensitivity to retail sentiment remain key watchpoints, even as international expansion and prediction markets offer potential growth catalysts.
IBKR Overview and Recent Performance
Interactive Brokers Group operates a fully automated, low-cost brokerage that provides access to stocks, options, futures, forex, and more across well over 100 global exchanges. Its client base spans retail traders, financial advisors, hedge funds, and proprietary trading firms. Growth has been consistent rather than spectacular: client accounts rose about 32% year over year to roughly 4.4 million, while client equity climbed to nearly $780 billion and margin loans grew around 40%.
Fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS, or profit allocated to each outstanding share) beat consensus, and revenue grew about 15% year over year. The firm's signature strength remains profitability — pre-tax margins near 79% reflect decades of investment in automated systems. Recent developments include stablecoin funding options and continued geographic expansion into markets such as Brazil, the UAE, and Malaysia. IBKR's relative performance has been steadier than HOOD's, with more moderate but reliable gains and a premium valuation supported by consistent account growth.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most fundamental contrast is business model. HOOD monetizes a mass-retail audience through order flow, subscriptions, interest on cash, and increasingly crypto and prediction markets — a model that scales rapidly but swings with activity and sentiment. IBKR monetizes a more diverse, globally distributed client base through commissions, NII, and margin, producing steadier economics and exceptional margins but slower headline growth.
On growth drivers, HOOD leans on product velocity, international entry, and new revenue verticals; IBKR leans on account growth, geographic reach, and technology-led cost efficiency. On momentum, HOOD delivered the stronger 2025 return but has been more volatile recently, while IBKR has compounded gains with comparatively lower drawdowns. Risk profiles also differ: HOOD's earnings are heavily tied to crypto and transaction volumes, whereas IBKR's earnings hinge on trading activity and interest rates. In terms of valuation and market sentiment, both trade at premiums, but HOOD's multiple is considerably richer, leaving less room for error if growth moderates.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors — trend consistency, margin durability, catalyst breadth, and relative positioning — Tickeron's AI would likely favor IBKR in the current environment. The stock's steadier upward trend, industry-leading margins, and diversified global account growth suggest a more consistent risk-reward profile. HOOD's faster growth and larger addressable market remain compelling, but its heavier dependence on crypto, prediction markets, and retail sentiment introduces greater trend instability and valuation risk. This is a probabilistic assessment rather than a definitive forecast, and relative positioning could shift quickly if HOOD's newer revenue verticals scale faster than expected or if IBKR's trading activity cools.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is HOOD is a Hold and IBKR is a Hold.
HOOD's Stochastic Oscillator is staying in oversold zone for 10 days
The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an uptrend is expected.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a +1.38% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HOOD advanced for three days, in 259 of 316 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
HOOD may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 232 of 281 cases where HOOD Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 83%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 02, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on HOOD as a result. In 51 of 69 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for HOOD turned negative on September 28, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 33 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 72%.
HOOD moved below its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for HOOD crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HOOD declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. HOOD’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 81 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 97 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (9.377) is normal, around the industry mean (3.472). HOOD has a moderately high P/E Ratio (42.801) as compared to the industry average of (9.162). HOOD's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.033) is slightly higher than the industry average of (0.809). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (6.992) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (19.455) is also within normal values, averaging (16.763).
IBKR in upward trend: price may jump up because it broke its lower Bollinger Band on October 16, 2026
IBKR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 29 of 36 cases where IBKR's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
Following a +1.64% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where IBKR advanced for three days, in 253 of 324 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 16, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on IBKR as a result. In 49 of 84 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for IBKR turned negative on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 29 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 63%.
IBKR moved below its 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for IBKR crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 14, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 6 of 11 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where IBKR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
The Aroon Indicator for IBKR entered a downward trend on October 07, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. IBKR’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 91 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.346) is normal, around the industry mean (3.472). P/E Ratio (32.684) is within average values for comparable stocks, (9.162). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.406) is also within normal values, averaging (0.809). Dividend Yield (0.004) settles around the average of (6.992) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.498) is also within normal values, averaging (16.763).
IBKR | ||
|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 91 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 8 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 45 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 56 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 53 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
| HOOD | IBKR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 84% | 4 days ago 70% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 74% | 4 days ago 58% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 72% | 4 days ago 63% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 79% | 4 days ago 59% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 79% | 4 days ago 62% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 82% | 8 days ago 78% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 79% | 6 days ago 56% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 83% | 4 days ago 81% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 83% | 4 days ago 58% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HOOD’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while IBKR’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- HOOD’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- IBKR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HOOD’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while IBKR’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HOOD’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- IBKR’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
HOOD (@Investment Banks/Brokers) experienced а -9.31% price change this week, while IBKR (@Investment Banks/Brokers) price change was -5.90% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Banks/Brokers industry was -8.05%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -15.62%, and the average quarterly price growth was -17.05%.
Reported Earning Dates
HOOD is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
IBKR is expected to report earnings on Jan 19, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Banks/Brokers (-8.05% weekly)These banks specialize in underwriting (helping companies with debt financing or equity issuances), IPOs, facilitating mergers and other corporate reorganizations and acting as a broker or financial advisor for institutions. They might also trade securities on their own accounts. Investment banks potentially thrive on expanding its network of clients, since that could help them increase profits. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and CME Group Inc are some of the largest investment banking companies.
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